Week 15 of the NFL season brings with it some very interesting NFL betting lines and totals. We have the trends you need to know before locking in your wagers.
With 14 weeks of data, could Week 15 be our most profitable yet? We’ve got some interesting sides, totals, and props to consider before settling in for what promises to be another exciting week across the NFL.
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
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Week 15 NFL Picks Overview
Below is an overview of our Week 15 NFL picks. For analysis on all of these, continue to scroll down for each game.
Kyle Soppe’s Picks
- Giants +16
- Saints +7.5
- Chiefs -4
- Dolphins +3
- Bengals -5
- Jets/Jaguars over 40.5
- Panthers -3
- Colts +4 with Colts over 20 points
- Steelers +5.5
- Patriots/Cardinals under 46
- Lions -2.5
- Buccaneers +3
- Packers/Seahawks over 45.5
- Bears +6.5
- Falcons -4
David Bearman’s Picks
- Jaguars +3
- Buccaneers/Chargers under 45.5
- Bills team total over 26.5 points
Jason Katz’s Picks
- Adam Thielen over 50.5 receiving yards
- Bryce Young over 14.5 rushing yards
- Najee Harris under 73.5 rush + receiving yards
- Aaron Jones over 61.5 rushing yards
- Caleb Williams over 207.5 passing yards
- Gus Edwards longest rush under 11.5 yards
- Jonnu Smith over 4.5 receptions
Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants
Soppe: This is as big a mismatch as you’re going to see. From motivation to injuries to raw talent – these two teams essentially play different sports.
How many points are you willing to lay?
For me, we’ve reached a tipping point. Underdogs are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 December games when catching double figures and that’s enough for me to back the home team. Did you know that no team has seen more games decided by seven or fewer points than the Baltimore Ravens this season?
I’m not suggesting that we are looking at that sort of result, but if this is a one-score game late, we are going to cash this ticket. There’s no requirement that you need to watch a game you bet on and this is a prime example – this isn’t going to be pretty, but I do think over two touchdowns on the road is asking a lot.
Pick: Giants +16
Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints
Soppe: I’m a sucker for a key number and we get that benefit here for a team that is more than willing to bleed clock (26th in pass rate over expectation). Yes, the New Orleans Saints are in the mix for most injured offensive talent in the league, but they still have their star running back and Alvin Kamara gives them the potential to execute their plan of shortening the game.
Indoor underdogs catching more than six points are 31-19 ATS in the past 50 instances, a trend I think we extended in what could be an awfully ugly game. Asking a team like the Washington Commanders to cover a big number on the road is difficult – this defense is a hindrance over the first 55 minutes and even if they overachieve, what is to stop the back door from being left open late?
The Commanders allowed over 2.5 points per drive in both of their games against the New York Giants, which field an offense that closely resembles what the Saints are throwing out there this weekend. Washington was able to get out of town with a win in both of those instances, but neither was by enough to cover this number.
Pick: Saints +7.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns
Soppe: This is an interesting spot when you match up the quarterbacks. On one side, we get Patrick Mahomes, maybe the best in the game who specializes in making just enough plays to win games. On the other, we get a random number generator in Jameis Winston – would it surprise you if he beat the ‘85 Bears or lost to your local high school?
I haven’t made a habit of betting on games involving either one of these teams, but I do think there is something to be said for Winston covering just 32.1% of the time (9-19 ATS) in games with a sub-45-point total (otherwise: 27-27 ATS). He’s covered just two of his past 10 games in such situations and I think it’s because those games come with a heightened value on every single possession.
One turnover at the wrong time and the result is gone, the cover is gone, your money is gone. Unless you join me on the other side. Mahomes is going to make a few plays late and Winston, in these spots, finds a way to come up short – I think we get the Kansas City Chiefs to win by more than a field goal in regulation for the first time since October.
Pick: Chiefs -4
Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans
Soppe: The Miami Dolphins playing on the road this time of year is concerning, but not in a weather-controlled environment. For his career, Tua Tagovailoa is 28-15 ATS when the kickoff temperature is at least 60 degree (5-12-1 ATS otherwise) and, given how this offense is structured, I’ll take that rate to the bank.
Through 14 games, the Houston Texans allow the fourth-most yards per catch after the reception (6.0). That rate ranks worse than the Raiders. That rate ranks worse than the Jaguars. C.J. Stroud and company might come out of their bye firing on the offensive end, but if this defense is going to struggle to tackle, Miami’s short passing game could put them in a keep-up spot from the jump.
I like the over in this game as much as anything, and if this game is shooting out, Jalen Ramsey is the defensive player I like most to swing the momentum with a single big play. I think this is one of the more fun games to watch, and if I have to pick one defense to make a stop, give me a ‘Fins team that has looked great over the past month outside of a trip to Lambeau on Thanksgiving.
Pick: Dolphins +3
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
Soppe: The Cincinnati Bengals were lucky to get out of Dallas on Monday night with a win (and cover!), keeping their thin playoff hopes alive in the process. I think they run out of games when it comes to the postseason, but with Joe Burrow at the peak of his powers, bad quarterbacks aren’t beating this team.
Week 1 loss to New England aside (Burrow wasn’t playing at this level to open the season), here’s what we are looking at for signal-caller results against Cincinnati:
- Lost to CIN: Bryce Young, Daniel Jones, Deshaun Watson, Gardner Minshew II, Cooper Rush
- Beat CIN: Patrick Mahomes, Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts
Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson
Burrow to Chase for SIX.
📺: #CINvsDAL on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus & ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/R32IM7eQzY— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2024
Is there any question as to which of those buckets Will Levis falls in? Burrow is 13-4 ATS for his career as a road favorite (9-1 ATS in his last 10 such spots), and while a spread north of a field goal is a little uncomfortable, the Tennessee Titans have cleared 20 points just once since their Week 5 bye – I’m not worried about the Bengals scoring 25-30 points.
Pick: Bengals -5
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars
Bearman: Here we are again, with the New York Jets favored. This time on the road? Books have been wrong about them all year, and we have taken full advantage. The Jets have covered in one of their past seven games as a favorite, and that was when Houston had no WRs playing due to injuries. In fact, that was the last time they won a game. We were out trick or treating that night, it was so long ago. And they are laying three points on the road?
Listen — the Jacksonville Jaguars aren’t any good either, but they did win last week at Tennessee and played Houston to the buzzer the week before. Both came after a bye week in which coach Doug Pederson’s job was in question. They have rebounded well.
The Jets are 4-9 ATS this season and 2-5 ATS on the road, which includes a cover by the hook in a blown game last week. They are as dead as teams get this time of year, so I’ll go with the home team that is playing better and getting points. And the Jags have covered five of the last seven too.
Pick: Jaguars +3
Soppe: When losing teams play this time of year, we see more points scored than expected. History suggests that we tend to downgrade bad offenses too much this time of year (overs are 13-6 over the last 10 times that two sub-five-win teams have played in December) and with chunk playmakers on both sides, we aren’t asking for much.
Both of these defenses rank below the league average in … points per drive, red-zone touchdown rate, yards per drive, and turnover rate.
I’m not saying that last week was a breakthrough that has staying power for Aaron Rodgers, but considering 59.3% of his completions went to either Garrett Wilson or Davante Adams, I feel good about him giving his most talented teammates a chance to expose a terrible defense.
On the other side, New York’s defense has underachieved for the past two months and Brian Thomas Jr. is a big play waiting to happen. Look for a few haymakers to be landed in the early going of this good-weather game, encouraging an aggressive offensive environment for the majority of the afternoon – I’ll take that to the bank with a low projected total.
Pick: Jets/Jaguars over 40.5
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers
Katz: This is a disrespectful line to the Carolina Panthers WR1. Thielen may be the oldest wide receiver in the NFL — but don’t tell him that. Since returning from IR in Week 12, Thielen has totaled 57, 99, and 102 receiving yards.
Now, he gets a Dallas Cowboys defense allowing the 11th-most passing yards per game in what should be a fast-paced affair. He’s the clear WR1 for an improving Young. On the surface, this may seem like chasing past results, but in reality, it’s taking advantage of books being slow to react. I would play this up to 55.5.
Pick: Adam Thielen over 50.5 receiving yards
Katz: As I mentioned above, Young has been improving. Part of this new evolution of his game is being more decisive in when to look for a pass and when to take off. Young has run for at least 17 yards in four consecutive games.
The Cowboys have not been good defensively, but they do generate pressure, especially when Micah Parsons is on the field. All it will take is for Young to get pressured and scramble one or two times for him to hit this number. I wouldn’t play this much higher than it is now, though.
Pick: Bryce Young over 14.5 rushing yards
Soppe: Are the Panthers going to be a chalky ATS pick in their first game as a favorite since 2022?
I think it’s possible, and honestly, I don’t think it’s wrong. Young is 7-5 ATS at home, a major difference from his 3-8 ATS mark on the road. He’s not a world beater, but his metrics are trending up across the board and this team is motivated to use this time to develop him and enhance his confidence.
Young has seen his average depth of throw spike over the past month, and that is the skill set I like to target against America’s Team. Maybe he lands on a long pass. Maybe not. But Dallas is the worst team at tackling after the catch and that means that even the short passes have the ability to pay off in a splash play.
The Cowboys aren’t looking to grow the skill set of Cooper Rush – they are simply trying to have this season end. Dallas is playing on the road on short rest after a disheartening loss in what has been a disaster of a season.
Pick: Panthers -3
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
Soppe: I’m fading what promises to be a public side here. I think we are getting an extra point of value here, and with that resulting in the crossing of a key number, I’m in.
Bo Nix has been one of the great stories of 2024 while Anthony Richardson has had trouble convincing his own franchise that he is the man for the job long-term. With the money potentially coming in on the home team, I waited all week to lock in this bet, hoping to capitalize on public money and get the best possible number. Now I’m a big Indianapolis Colts fan.
Over the past 32 instances in which a team was catching more than a field goal coming off of their bye, the underdog is 21-10-1 ATS. That’s pretty impressive, and we can drill down in a different direction to make this a juicer ticket – if you’re going to bet on Richardson, you want some bang for your buck, right?
Overs are 7-4 in Indy’s past 11 covers and 5-1 in the Denver Broncos’ past six failures to cover. I find it unlikely that Richardson and company grind out a slugfest, lending me in the direction of backing the Colts in a fantasy-football-friendly contest.
Pick: Colts +4 with Colts over 20 points
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles
Katz: Chuba Hubbard was able to get the better of the Philadelphia Eagles’ run defense last week, totaling 92 yards. But it took him 26 carries to do it. On the season, the Eagles allow the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game.
With the Eagles playing well offensively and likely to prevent the Pittsburgh Steelers from finding themselves in a positive game script, we could see more passing, and more importantly, more Jaylen Warren.
Last week, Harris played just 42% of the snaps. He didn’t see a target, running the ball 16 times for 53 yards. With Harris’ limited passing game role, even if he does better than expected on the ground, we get the advantage of extra yards to give by taking his combined total.
Pick: Najee Harris under 73.5 rush + receiving yards
Soppe: The battle of Pennsylvania will be one of the more interesting games of Week 14 – can the angry Eagles top the beat-up Steelers?
If I had to pick a moneyline winner in this game, it would be the home team, but there is a point spread for a reason and when a Mike Tomlin team is catching points at this level, you either back him or you stay out of his way.
For his career, the Hall of Fame coach has a 63.9% cover rate as an underdog, a percentage that jumps to 68.2% in the month of December. If you want to separate yourself from the head coach angle, the macro trends across the NFL are moving in the same direction – road teams are 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 games that have featured dueling double-digit win teams.
Gardner Minshew beat Mitch Trubisky the last time the Steelers lost a game by 6+ points.
It’s been a minute.
Pick: Steelers +5.5
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals
Soppe: Neither one of these teams has consistently done anything well. Don’t get me wrong, there have been moments of encouraging play from both of these teams, but banking on 60 minutes from either of the six units involved in this game isn’t wise, especially on the offensive end.
Arizona Cardinals’ Offensive Ranks Since Week 3:
- 24th in turnover rate
- 27th in red-zone efficiency
- 31st in average starting field position
New England Patriots’ Offensive Ranks Since Week 3:
- 27th in three-and-out rate
- 30th in points per drive
- 31st in yards per drive
Unders are 6-1 in the last seven games in which Kyler Murray was favored by at least six points. In betting the under for this game, we give ourselves plenty of outs. What if Drake Maye looks like a rookie? What if Murray tries to make a hero play and fails? What if Arizona’s defense, ranking 12th in sack rate, rears its head to halt a drive? What if New England and its 10th-most blitz-heavy defense puts the Cards behind the sticks with regularity?
I like the odds of one of these teams struggling to reach 20 points far more than either reach 30, and given this total, that’s enough for me.
Pick: Patriots/Cardinals under 46
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions
Bearman: The Buffalo Bills have scored at least 30 points in seven straight games, including against strong Chiefs and 49ers defenses, giving them 10 such occurrences in 13 games this season. Josh Allen is playing out of his mind with a huge MVP lead.
The Detroit Lions’ defense has improved this year but gave up 31 to G.B., 29 to Minnesota, and 29 to Seattle, all good teams. They are also only ranked 23rd against the pass, which is not a formula for stopping Buffalo.
I can see either team winning this and don’t want to touch the side, so I’m going with the Bills’ offense to score.
Pick: Bills team total over 26.5 points
Soppe: Favorites are 18-6-2 ATS in the last 26 with a total north of 50 points (regular season) and I like that trend to continue with us getting the ability to back, for my money, the best team in football at just under a key number at home.
The Lions are the fourth-best points-per-drive defense in all the land this season, and with them pacing the league in points per drive when playing at home since the beginning of last season, I’m never going to have a hard time trusting this team to hold my money when playing in front of their loyal fans.
A funny wrinkle? I mentioned that recent trend in games with a total over 50 points and how it favors the favorite – underdogs are 6-0 in those spots in the playoffs. Can I parlay the Lions to cover here and the Bills to cover against the Lions in the Super Bowl?
This number is a tick low and I think the entertainment factor is buying us value. We all loved watching Josh Allen light the fantasy world on fire last week while the Jared Goff game that stands out in your mind is the five-interception prime-time debacle.
Pick: Lions -2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers
Katz: I will admit to waffling a bit on which way to fade Edwards. I considered his rushing attempts under, which was also 11.5. You could certainly take that as well, as Edwards has just one game all season with more than 11 rushing attempts.
Ultimately, I went with the longest rush under because Edwards is a plodder incapable of explosive plays. He would need a perfectly blocked run to reach 12 yards.
On the season, Edwards has carried the ball a total of 79 times. Exactly one of those rushes went for more than 11 yards. It went for 12.
Last week, Edwards was out-snapped by Kimani Vidal. In fact, Vidal got the first carry of the game. We could be seeing a changing of the guard in Los Angeles with the rookie taking even more of the work. Additionally, over their last three games, the Bucs have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game.
Pick: Gus Edwards longest rush under 11.5 yards
Bearman: The Los Angeles Chargers have given up 20 or fewer points in 11 of 13 games this season, only falling asleep in back-to-back games versus Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. They shut down Mahomes and the Chiefs last week in the last-minute loss.
Fair warning that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense has been hot, scoring 28 PPG over the last three weeks, but that was against the Giants, Panthers, and Raiders. They only scored 20 against San Francisco and seven against a good Broncos defense.
This is the best defense they’ve seen all season. The Chargers have the eighth-best pass defense, which should slow down Baker Mayfield. Add the fact the Bucs’ running game is banged up, and I don’t think they have anywhere close to the success they’ve had the last few weeks.
Only two Chargers games this season have gone over this 45.5, and even with T.B. scoring recently, only one of their last four has gone over this total.
Pick: Buccaneers/Chargers under 45.5
Soppe: Per our Week 15 Stats, Trends, and Insights piece: The Chargers have lost a league-high 29 regular season games by a single possession during the Justin Herbert era (23-29 in such games).
That has me more than happy to take the points in any Los Angeles game that I think could go in either direction, and that is very much the case here. The Bucs have won three straight games against subpar competition, righting the ship after a tough run before the Week 11 bye and positioning them to compete for a playoff spot down the stretch.
The running game in Tampa Bay has gotten on track lately, giving Baker Mayfield (8-1 ATS on the road as a Buccaneer against non-divisional opponents) time to make winning plays.
Over the past five seasons, home teams favored by three or fewer only win outright 53.5% of the time – there’s a moneyline bet to chase here if you want to, but I’ll be sitting on my couch, watching a game that I expect to be decided in the final five minutes, with a slightly juiced bet on my ticket and liking my chances.
Pick: Buccaneers +3
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
Soppe: The Fail Mary is the meeting between these two teams that comes to mind, and with both teams trending in a positive direction (Green Bay Packers are 7-2 after a 2-2 start while the Seattle Seahawks have rattled off four straight wins following their bye), it’s very possible that we see another instant classic that comes down to the wire.
The spread reflects that, and with both offenses capable of scoring consistently, this could be a fun nightcap. For the season, these teams are better than the league when they have the ball in terms of turnover rate and three-and-out rate – if drives aren’t getting cut short in the year 2024, points are being put on the board. We also have an interesting league-wide trend that has sustained through 14 weeks this season:
Home underdog over rates by season:
- 2022: 35.3%
- 2023: 42.2%
- 2024: 51.9%
I’m less concerned about the moderate cash rate of those bets and more encouraged by the trajectory. Jordan Love and Geno Smith are plenty capable of making impact plays of both the positive and negative variety.
This ticket doesn’t come with a requirement for which team scores the bulk of the points or even that they come in a traditional manner. One of these teams should push for 30 and that would likely be enough to put some spending money in our pockets as we approach the holiday season.
Pick: Packers/Seahawks over 45.5
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (MNF)
Katz:
Pick: Caleb Williams over 207.5 passing yards
Katz:
Pick: Aaron Jones over 61.5 rushing yards
Soppe: The first of two Monday night games comes with one good trend and a conflicting pattern that you could leverage into a +300 payout if you’re feeling frisky.
In the past seven divisional games with a spread of at least six points, NFC North teams are 6-1 ATS. This division has simply been too competitive of late to lay that kind of number, but the “better” team has traditionally prevailed – favorites are 6-1 outright in those games (+300 on DraftKings if you want to play the Chicago Bears ATS and the Minnesota Vikings ML).
Before their dismantling of the Falcons last week, Minnesota’s point differential was +15 in seven games following its bye – Sam Darnold is doing enough to win ball games, but asking him to win by a margin is more confidence than I have.
The Bears are a top-five red-zone defense, while the Vikes operate at a bottom-five pace. Calling for the outright upset is a bit bold for my liking, but another tight NFC North game that comes down to the wire? Sign me up.
Pick: Bears +6.5
Atlanta Falcons at Las Vegas Raiders (MNF)
Soppe: We get Kirk Cousins on prime time to end what could be a chaotic week – would you want it any other way?
I know what you’re thinking – auto-fade. You think that because it’s what we are hit over the head with every time he graces our TVs in an island spot. Add to the public’s infatuation with this narrative the fact that his recent play has sparked the Michael Penix conversation, and we have the rare instance of knowing exactly where the money is going to pile up.
Wait and pounce.
The Cousins angle is a dated one. The Atlanta Falcons’ struggling signal-caller is actually 8-3-1 ATS in his past 12 prime-time games (career prior: 7-15 ATS). I’m not saying you have to label Cousins as an elite quarterback – simply average would work.
Las Vegas Raiders’ rankings, 2024:
- 25th in red-zone defense
- 30th in defensive scoring rate
- 32nd in offensive turnover rate
- 32nd in goal-to-go offense
The betting lines in this game suggest that the Falcons getting to 25 points would be enough to cover this number as a road favorite, a number that the Raiders have allowed in five of their past six and seven of their past nine.
Let’s end the week with a score prediction: Falcons win, 27-17.
Pick: Falcons -4
