The closest division race of the 2024 NFL season is in the NFC West. With several interdivisional matchups remaining, it’s likely the West will see wild week-to-week fluctuations the rest of the way.
With the assistance of PFN’s Playoff Predictor, let’s examine the scenarios that could see the Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, or Arizona Cardinals take home the division title.
Which Teams Are Still Competing for the NFC West Crown?
Seattle Seahawks
Entering Week 15, the Seattle Seahawks had a 52.2% chance to win the NFC West. However, after a tough loss to the Green Bay Packers, combined with a potentially serious injury to QB Geno Smith, those odds have taken a hit. They now have a 33.3% chance to win their division.
Here is their remaining schedule:
- Week 16: vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Week 17: at Chicago Bears
- Week 18: at Los Angeles Rams
The Seahawks were in last place in the NFC West after entering their Week 10 bye, having lost five out of six games. But four straight division wins vaulted Seattle up to sole possession of first place. That gave the Hawks a cushion for a tough final month, which is ranked as the seventh-hardest remaining strength of schedule.
The Seahawks earned a massive sweep over Arizona, granting them the tiebreaker over the Cards. Seattle’s defensive personnel changes have totally transformed its performance on that side of the ball since the bye week. Unlike the cupcake schedule that led to the Seahawks’ 3-0 start, this winning streak appears more sustainable and a better indication of their true team strength.
The Seahawks are 3-2 in the division, as they’ve split with the 49ers, swept the Cardinals, and lost their first matchup at home to the Rams. They’ll visit Los Angeles in the season finale, their only other division game remaining.
Los Angeles Rams
After a massive Thursday Night Football win over the 49ers, the Los Angeles Rams have a 45.5% chance to win the NFC West. Here is their remaining schedule:
- Week 16: at New York Jets
- Week 17: vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Week 18: vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Rams have been one of the best teams in the league right now, having come off a massive, high-scoring win against the Bills and then a low-scoring, defensive slugfest against the 49ers.
The Rams own a 3-1 division record, bouncing back from a Cardinals loss with tight wins over the 49ers and Seahawks. The Rams control their own destiny, as they would win the division based on tiebreakers at worst if they win out.
Arizona Cardinals
Finally, the Arizona Cardinals have a 17.8% chance to win the NFC West. Here is their remaining schedule:
- Week 16: at Carolina Panthers
- Week 17: at Los Angeles Rams
- Week 18: vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Cardinals held first place and were the prohibitive division favorites by PFN’s playoff model just three weeks ago, with a whopping 70.8% chance to win the NFC West crown. However, three straight losses, including two very damaging ones to the Seahawks, have crippled the Cards’ playoff hopes and sent them below .500.
Because of that sweep at the hands of the Seahawks, the Cardinals must finish with an outright better record than Seattle.
The Cardinals did win their first matchups against the Rams and 49ers, so they have the opportunity to seal the head-to-head tiebreaker over those teams. However, winning out is probably a requirement for Arizona to make a surprise postseason appearance.
