Entering the 2024 NFL season, many expected the NFC South to be one of the more underwhelming divisions in the league. And while the Atlanta Falcons had an opportunity to run away with the division midseason, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have since passed them.
Can the Bucs separate from the Falcons? Using PFN’s Playoff Predictor, let’s examine the NFC South’s various playoff scenarios.
Which Teams Are Still Competing for the NFC South Crown?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6)
The Buccaneers have an 83.1% chance to win the division after their Week 15 win. Here is Tampa Bay’s remaining schedule:
- Week 16: at Dallas Cowboys
- Week 17: vs. Carolina Panthers
- Week 18: vs. New Orleans Saints
Since the Bucs lost both of their games against the Falcons this season, they’ll need to finish with an outright better record than Atlanta to win the NFC South for a fourth year in a row. Tampa Bay does have the fifth-easiest remaining strength of schedule, though that feels a touch misleading, with both the Panthers and Cowboys looking far more competitive the last three weeks.
If the Falcons lost Monday night to the Raiders, the Buccaneers will all but seal the NFC South.
Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
The Falcons have a 16% chance to win the division entering Week 15. Here is Atlanta’s remaining schedule:
- Week 15: at Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 16: vs. New York Giants
- Week 17: at Washington Commanders
- Week 18: vs. Carolina Panthers
The Falcons were at just under 61% to win the division entering Week 10 but have lost four straight games since to fall below .500. Atlanta’s schedule finally gives them a reprieve the next two weeks, but the Falcons haven’t looked like a team capable of going on an extended win streak.
Atlanta no longer controls its own destiny and must finish at least one game better than Tampa Bay over the final four games. They can still take the NFC South crown if they match the Buccaneers’ overall record since they swept the season series between them.
The Falcons now have the easiest remaining strength of schedule down the stretch and will likely be significant favorites in three of their last four games.
