The Dallas Cowboys have won two straight games against divisional opponents with their backup quarterback playing.
The Cincinnati Bengals are surprisingly in the same boat as the Cowboys; albeit for very different reasons. According to TruMedia, four teams since 2000 have scored more than 27 points per game and own a losing record — the Bengals are one of them. This is a testament to how frustrating it has been to have a Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase masterclass every week get ruined by a defense that cannot seem to function.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Bengals -5.5 - Moneyline
Bengals (-230); Cowboys (+190) - Over/Under
49.5 total points - Game Time
8:15 p.m ET - Location
AT&T Stadium
Bengals vs. Cowboys Preview and Prediction
Since Cooper Rush became the full-time starter in Week 10, the Cowboys are dead last in EPA (expected points added) per play on offense. In that same time frame, they are 29th in explosive play rate as well. Basically, there isn’t much to be said about this offense with Cooper Rush at quarterback. Yet, somehow they scored 34 and 27 against the New York Giants and Washington Commanders.
They sacked Drew Lock six times and picked him off once, which helped immensely. They were also able to take advantage of the Giants in the run game, rushing for over five yards per carry. Against the Commanders, it was much of the same story. They sacked Jayden Daniels four times, picked him off twice, and were able to run the ball effectively (4.5 yards per carry) to control the time of possession.
This should be more than doable against a Bengals defense that ranks 31st in defensive rush EPA per play and 30th in overall defensive EPA per play. Surprisingly, the Bengals’ defense ranks eighth in least amount of rushing explosives (10+ yard runs) given up, so they are actually much worse at stopping runs consistently. This should also play into the Cowboys’ favor as they struggle getting explosive runs, ranking last in the league.
Most important will be whether the Cowboys’ defense can force turnovers and sack Burrow. Dallas is fourth in the league at generating pressure and also blitz sixth-most in football. The Bengals are second in offensive EPA under pressure and 17th against the blitz. This blitz issue compounds when you look at turnovers and sacks.
The Bengals rank 27th in EPA lost to sacks when blitzed and 29th in EPA lost to turnovers when blitzed. Since Micah Parsons’ return to football in November, he has racked up 5.5 sacks in four games. Dallas would be wise to match him up with rookie Amarius Mims instead of Orlando Brown Jr., but it wouldn’t really matter as Parsons will dominate whoever is in front of him.
Overall, I expect the Bengals to win this game, but Micah Parsons and the Cowboys’ defense were able to cause just enough chaos for the Cowboys’ run game to control the tempo and get two divisional wins back-to-back. I think they can do that again to hang in this game.
My pick: Cowboys +5.5 (-112)
Cincinnati has allowed a sack in every game except one (Carolina Panthers). Parsons is one of the best defenders in the league and should get home at least once. Dallas, on the other hand, has given up one sack in the last two games. They have also had a time to throw significantly lower than every other game this season. The Bengals also rank 21st in quick pressure generated. I like the value of +800 for the Bengals to not record a sack.
Alternate Picks: Micah Parsons Over 0.25 sacks (-125), Cincinnati Bengals To Not Record A Sack (+800)