Week 14 is here, and if you’re reading this, you’re in the playoffs, fighting for a chance to make the playoffs, or you’re already eliminated but are being a good league mate and ensuring you give it your all until the playoffs begin.
As we all know, there will be plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your fantasy football lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant wide receiver in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 14 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Adam Thielen | CAR (at PHI)
I’ll admit that I didn’t think Adam Thielen had a performance like what he gave us last week still in his bag. The veteran receiver caught a late touchdown pass against the Bucs that ended up extending the game into overtime, an extra session that saw him make a catch that will certainly be on any end-of-season reel you see.
Sheeeeesh @athielen19 pic.twitter.com/bXd9vPB9R6
— NFL (@NFL) December 2, 2024
He finished the game with eight grabs for 99 yards and the touchdown. That performance was nice, and he seems to have established himself as the rest-of-season alpha in this Panthers passing attack. The Eagles have allowed six receivers to reach 20 PPR points, and all of the names on that list are the WR1 types you’d assume.
With that understood, I can’t get Thielen inside of my top 30. Philadelphia hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in a game in four straight, a trend that, no matter how much you like what Bryce Young has put on tape lately, is tough to bank on Carolina reversing.
He’s locked into the slot these days (84% last week), and this upward-trending defense limits production to that spot on the field (sixth-fewest yards per attempt and completion this season).
The hope is for Jalen Coker to return from a two-week absence caused by a nagging quad injury, and while Thielen remains my highest-ranked Panther pass catcher, I’m not confident that there’s enough meat on the bone for him to give away work.
A.J. Brown | PHI (vs. CAR)
A.J. Brown is nothing short of an elite option, and that’s true with or without DeVonta Smith on the field. The Panthers allow passing touchdowns at the third-highest rate, and with a 30-point projection for the Eagles, Brown has plenty of scoring equity added to a profile that is lethal against anyone.
The Buccaneers showed zero hesitation in loading up Mike Evans with all of the usage he could handle (21 expected points, the highest by a receiver against Carolina this season), something I expect Philadelphia to mirror on Sunday.
Over the past month, Brown has rotated 100-yard games with sub-100-yard games … the Ravens held him to 66 yards on Sunday, so we are obviously locking in a triple-digit afternoon for this monster.
Allen Lazard | NYJ (at MIA)
If, in August, I told you that Aaron Rodgers would be getting his most efficient receiver back in the mix for the stretch run, you’d assume that we’d be looking at a league winner hiding in plain sight.
Let me tell you, 2024 has not exactly gone according to plan.
Allen Lazard has produced 32.2% of expectations this season and while that’s a fun stat to spit out, it’s not super predictive in an offense that now features Davante Adams. This offense has had troubles supporting one fantasy WR (just four times since Week 7 has a receiver in this offense reached even 13.5 PPR points), never mind a third.
There’s limited target upside here in a below average offense, not to mention the risk that comes associated with in assuming that Rodgers finishes the season under center. Lazard is roster depth if you have the luxury, but he’s not a must add and is a ways away from being ranked as a comfortable Flex option, something I don’t see changing any time soon.
Amari Cooper | BUF (at LAR)
Is it possible that the idea of Amari Cooper in Buffalo is more valuable than the actual version of him? Over his past three games, the former Brown has produced just 70 yards of offense on 61 routes, a level of production that isn’t close to good enough.
The Rams’ defense as a whole has struggled, but not in the spots that mean the most for a player like Cooper. This season, Los Angeles is the sixth-rest red-zone defense, making a bail-out cheap touchdown a little difficult to count on. That’s not to say that receivers haven’t had their moments against this unit, but the top six WR games in this matchup had a cumulative aDOT of 15.4 yards.
Cooper can win down the field, but he’s yet to reach 70 air yards in a game with Buffalo, and I’m not sure that changes this week should Keon Coleman (wrist) return. He still hasn’t been extended to a 51% snap share in a game with this team; until that changes, I’m looking for reasons to start other players in my Flex position.
Brandin Cooks | DAL (vs. CIN)
Brandin Cooks had a nice diving touchdown last week, but this profile is far too thin to bet on, even in this perfect spot. In his return to action (missed all of October and November), the veteran receiver was on the field for just 39.7% of Dallas’ snaps, a role that is rarely going to pay off in a Cooper Rush-led offense.
Cooks showed signs of decline when fully healthy last season, making a limited version of himself that is a year older something I’m not interested in. This is an underwhelming passing game that has a handful of secondary options next to CeeDe Lamb, none of whom project to consistently hold the edge in target equity.
You should be making excuses to not play Cowboys, not the other way around.
Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (at TEN)
Brian Thomas Jr.’s 4-76-1 stat line last week against the Texans got the job done, but if you were watching the game, it was frustrating. There were a few big misses, the most glaring being a Mac Jones mistake that cost his rookie receiver a 69-yard touchdown.
I wish I could tell you that consistency under center is something that BTJ will get moving forward, but I can’t. It’s highly unlikely that Jones will develop consistency any time soon, and that is going to require patience on your end.
That said, I’m OK with taking my chances in this matchup against a Titans defense that has allowed a 20-point WR performance in consecutive weeks (Nico Collins and Terry McLaurin) after not allowing a single such game previously.
You should be watching this game and the corresponding metrics with an eagle eye — these two teams do battle again at the end of the month with your fantasy Super Bowl on the line.
Calvin Ridley | TEN (vs. JAX)
We have a few revenge spots this week, and Calvin Ridley is positioned to make the most of it even after an underwhelming game in Washington. Tennessee’s WR1 has a 25+ yard catch in six of his past seven games, averaging 8.6 targets per game over that stretch.
This matchup is just right for this skill set — the Jaguars allow the second-most yards per deep passes and the fourth-most YAC yards across all pass types this season as a part of a defense that is the worst in the sport (per EPA).
I mentioned the poor Week 13 showing, and those low-efficiency days are going to happen when attached to Will Levis. For the season, Ridley has three games with at least seven targets and under 50 receiving yards. You have to take that floor into account before locking in your lineup, but the volume is strong enough to justify optimism in this ideal matchup.
Cedric Tillman | CLE (at PIT)
Cedric Tillman didn’t practice last week (concussion) and enters this week still in protocol. Given how productive Jerry Jeudy was on Monday night, I worry that the deep role Tillman left won’t be there when he returns.
For the season, Tillman owns a 12.3-yard aDOT and has seen two of his three scores come on deep passes. For me, he is the most volatile receiver in a volatile offense — I’ll pass unless I’m in the most desperate of situations.
That’s not a knock on Tillman as much as it is confidence in myself to put together a starting lineup that carries a stable enough floor where I don’t need to roll the dice on a profile like this in a tough spot in order to be competitive.
That said, regardless of if he plays this week or not, I’m 100% holding onto Tillman. If you thought the Browns had to put their foot on the gas to keep up with Bo Nix on Monday night, what happens with Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Tua Tagovailoa left on the schedule after this week?
Tillman isn’t the type of player I’m rushing back into lineups, but assuming health, he’s going to carry plenty of ceiling appeal during the most important stretch of the fantasy season.
CeeDee Lamb | DAL (vs. CIN)
That’s three straight games without an end-zone target for CeeDee Lamb and five straight without a score. He is hanging on for dear life to his status as a lineup lock in this Cooper Rush-led offense, but fortunately, the NFL gods prescribed him the best cure for his recent struggles:
The Cincinnati Bengals.
The road team has the eighth-highest opponent pass touchdown rate and has seen a receiver reach 18 PPR points on 10 occasions. More encouraging than that raw number are two of the names on that list: Jakobi Meyers and Diontae Johnson (with Carolina) both did despite well below-average quarterback play.
I’ve got Lamb ranked as a top-10 receiver this week and am optimistic that we see glimpses of greatness on Monday night, even if the upside for this offense is capped.
Cooper Kupp | LAR (vs. BUF)
Cooper Kupp averaged 0.71 yards per route on Sunday, his first game this season under 1.54. It was certainly an underwhelming performance, and a matchup with the Bills doesn’t initially profile as a great rebound spot.
Only twice this season has a receiver reached 18.5 PPR fantasy points against the Bills this season, and both came in the same week (Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard in Week 6). That’s it — outside of that game, this defense hasn’t been victimized at all.
Those are accurate numbers, but it’s also worth noting that Buffalo’s success has come as a result of shutting down perimeter receivers and encouraging defenses to take their medicine in the middle of the field.
Percentage of PPR points scored out wide among Rams WRs, 2024:
- Kupp: 24.7%
- Puka Nacua: 75.7%
It’s no lock that any receiver in Los Angeles exploits this stingy Bills unit, Kupp’s projectable ceiling holds the edge over Nacua’s if the trends hold, something that isn’t reflected in the DFS pricing as Kupp can be had at a 10% discount.
Darius Slayton | NYG (vs. NO)
Darius Slayton ranked behind only Malik Nabers in Giants targets on Thanksgiving in Dallas, and I’m viewing that as a bad thing.
Wait, what?
My thought is that it’s not going to get any better than that. We got a low usage game for Wan’Dale Robinson (two targets) in a spot where New York finished with 11 more pass attempts than rush attempts — those things worked in Slayton’s favor, and he gave you 2.8 PPR points.
The efficiency won’t always be as poor as it was on Thursday, but given the QB situation in New York, I’m not all that comfortable penciling in anything close to league-average per-target numbers.
After Nabers, there isn’t a single target earner I feel good about on this roster, and I can’t imagine picking a boom/bust option from this offense instead of rolling the dice on a player in Tampa Bay or even Carolina with Bryce Young trending in the right direction.
Darnell Mooney | ATL (at MIN)
The surprise season from Darnell Mooney has hit a roadblock over the past two games (47 yards on 60 routes), as Atlanta’s WR2 has been the receiver most impacted by Kirk Cousins’ cratering.
Mooney hasn’t seen an end-zone target since Week 6 and has produced under expectations in three straight, coming on the heels of producing +13% over expectations through the first nine weeks of the season. At this point, Mooney is no longer a player I’m blindly starting.
He gets the NFC’s best defense by EPA, and with this backfield soaking up plenty of usage alongside Drake London, I’m not sure the target upside is high enough to overcome Cousins’ struggles.
If the QB play improves, Mooney has the potential to return to his WR2 status from October, but we aren’t there right now.
Davante Adams | NYJ (at MIA)
Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers connected on a vintage eight-yard score in the first quarter last week, just their second score in six games since the trade with the Raiders. Volume hasn’t at all been a problem (over 10 targets in three of four games), so if we can get any signs of efficiency, a return to top-10 status is at least possible (53.4% catch rate with the Jets).
The Dolphins have the fifth-lowest opponent aDOT this season, something that could cap Adams’ upside while also raising his floor should the Jets shorten his route tree. I’m holding out some hope that we have yet to see Adams’ best in New York — he’s my WR18 this week, ranking alongside other WR1s paired with QBs with whom I have trust issues (DK Metcalf, Malik Nabers, and Calvin Ridley).
DeAndre Hopkins | KC (vs. LAC)
DeAndre Hopkins still isn’t being put on the field at the rate of a consistent asset (three straight games with a sub-60% snap share), but his role when on the field is enough to keep in lineups.
Over the past two games, a pair of way-too-close victories, Hopkins has posted an on-field target share of 27.3% with three end-zone targets. If you gave me that profile without any context, I’d assume that one, if not both, of those weeks were top-15 finishes at the position, but neither has been.
Hang in there. Physically imposing WRs have been the ones to give the Chargers trouble this season, and we’ve seen enough juice from Hopkins to still put him in that tier.
Top WR fantasy performances vs. Chargers, 2024:
- Tee Higgins, Week 11: 29.8 PPR points
- Ja’Marr Chase, Week 11: 26.5
- Calvin Ridley, Week 10: 25.4
- Calvin Austin III, Week 3: 19.5
- Cedric Tillman, Week 9: 19.5
He has big-play potential with a quarterback who is capable of putting the ball where it needs to be — he’s right with Jameson Williams and DeVonta Smith (if active) in the middle of my Flex rankings for Week 14.
Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF (vs. CHI)
The 49ers are running out of bodies and time. This season hasn’t gone anything like San Francisco was hoping, and if it wants to salvage anything down the season, it’s likely to come through the weapon known as Deebo Samuel Sr.
Earlier this season, we saw Samuel routinely earn 5-7 targets with 3-4 rushing attempts, a role that I think we could see return for the remainder of this season with Christan McCaffrey and Jordan Mason landing on injured reserve.
This is a tough matchup against the second-best red-zone defense in the league (40.9% touchdown rate when opponents reach their 20-yard line), but we know Kyle Shanahan excels in getting creative, something I expect to be on full display as this team tries to stay alive.
Samuel checks in as my WR25 for Week 14.
Demarcus Robinson | LAR (vs. BUF)
Demarcus Robinson has scored on 11 of his 54 catches since joining the Rams, a rate that isn’t likely to be sustained. That said, there is something to be said for where on the field he is used and the attention that his teammates draw off of him.
I’m never going to rank Robinson as a fantasy starter, but his playing time is safe and he’s functioning in an offense with the wide receiver elevator known as Matthew Stafford. His touchdown last week was set up by a nice 46-yard catch — if he works his way into a few deep targets per game, we can discuss moving him up. However, a 4-5 target role in an offense that has three players capable of finishing drives is a thin profile to chase.
DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs. CAR)
DeVonta Smith missed last week with a hamstring injury, and while there’s some hope that he is back on the field this week, the record of the Eagles affords them the ability to operate with patience for their agility-based wideout.
Smith was a target magnet early in the season, something that we know is in his profile but something that I have to see again before projecting it. The potency of this running game along with the health of Dallas Goedert makes Smith’s target projection rather unstable, and that’s assuming full strength.
In a perfect world, you have enough depth to take a wait-and-see approach here. If that’s not the case, you have a path to his upside against the second-worst EPA defense in the league, but you need to be aware of the risk involved.
DJ Moore | CHI (at SF)
DJ Moore earned 44.4% of the targets on Thanksgiving on his way to an ultra-impressive 8-97-1 stat line. He’s caught at least seven passes in three straight games, the type of streak that can be sustained for extended periods of time when you flash the type of versatility that Moore has recently.
- Previous two weeks: 14 targets and 26 air yards
- Thanksgiving: 16 targets and 168 air yards
He’s trending in a great direction with consecutive top-10 finishes (he had only one top-20 finish before this run), and that’s great to see but doesn’t mean he is free of his risk. This Chicago offense remains spotty, something that is evident by the fact that Moore hasn’t seen an end-zone target since Week 8.
I’m Flexing Moore, ranking him in the same tier as Jerry Jeudy and Brian Thomas Jr., two receivers who carry a wide range of outcomes due to a lack of QB stability.
DK Metcalf | SEA (at ARI)
DK Metcalf was an afterthought in the first half last week (zero catches on two targets), but on a drive early in the third quarter, he had catches of 28 and 30 yards, not to mention a forced DPI and an end-zone target.
I’m not sure why the slow start, but it was clear that the messaging at halftime was to feature their walking mismatch, and I can’t say I disagree with that game plan. He struggled in the Week 12 meeting with the Cardinals (4-59-0), and while I think he’s better than that this time around, I do think there is something to Arizona selling out to slow Seattle’s WR1.
The counting numbers should be fine through sheer volume, but his red-zone target rate is down 10.7 percentage points from a season ago; that, in this matchup, has resulted in me ranking Jaxon Smith-Njigba as my favorite receiver in this offense.
Drake London | ATL (at MIN)
Kirk Cousins looked about as bad as anyone in Week 13, and while betting on him to support your WR1 is scary, he’s obviously well-suited to have an idea of what his former teammates are going to do.
The season hasn’t been a great one for the veteran QB, and still, Drake London has seven top-20 finishes. Of course, there’s the fact that he only has one finish better than eighth at the position, and he lacks the upside that we penciled him in for this summer, but there’s not a conversation to be had here.
The Vikings’ defense is aggressive and creates havoc, but it gets overlooked that there are two sides to that coin. Through 13 weeks, this defense has coughed up at least 18 PPR points to a receiver 10 times with a wide range of skill sets getting it done.
I have no issue penciling in Atlanta’s WR1 for another 6-8 catches for 75-85 yards, a level of production that is deserving of being in your lineup with confidence.
Elijah Moore | CLE (at PIT)
The Moore contingency is coming on strong as we approach the final stretch of the final season with DJ easily clearing 20 points in consecutive weeks and Elijah Moore fresh off of earning a season-high 14 targets. Cleveland’s underneath receiver has caught at least six balls in four of his past six games.
Pittsburgh ranks 24th in yards per catch after the reception this season to the receiver position (4.8), a flaw that I like Moore to pick at more than any of the other WRs on this roster. The range of outcomes is far more narrow than a player like Jerry Jeudy, but I was ultra-impressed with what he put on tape last week, and we know that Jameis Winston is going to give him a chance to make plays.
I’m not sweating the 3-21-0 stat line in the snow against these Steelers two weeks ago. If the Steelers elect to defend against the home-run play and make Winston beat them with 1,000 paper cuts, Moore stands to benefit in a big way.
I think you can Flex him this week in PPR leagues and have him ranked not too far from Chicago’s streaking Moore in my Week 14 WR rankings.
Garrett Wilson | NYJ (at MIA)
Garrett Wilson wiggled free in the end zone last week, and Aaron Rodgers air-mailed him. This offense isn’t generating enough chances to misfire, making those 7.9 points left on the field a week-ruiner for those banking on New York’s WR2.
Wilson has been no better than the WR35 since Week 9, but he did see 111 air yards’ worth of targets last week, and that is interesting in this specific matchup against the only defense in the NFL that has yet to intercept a deep pass.
I’m not going to pretend to have a clue as to what is going on in Rodgers’ head, but we’ve seen him chuck it deep in those “free play” situations for years. He does that because there is literally no risk in doing so, and while that interception trend isn’t that safe, it does encourage aggression.
I have Wilson ranked as a low-end WR2/high-end Flex this week, understanding that there is a floor to consider but a ceiling that I feel is great enough to absorb that risk.
George Pickens | PIT (vs. CLE)
George Pickens’ 17-yard touchdown on the first drive last week extended his streak to seven straight games with an end-zone target or a score, a role that locks him into fantasy lineups every week.
In the snow, Pickens was able to turn seven targets into just 48 yards in the first game against Cleveland this season. I’m not too worried about the underwhelming performance after watching the Browns chase around the Broncos without much success on Monday night.
He has a deep catch in every Russell Wilson start this season, giving him extreme upside to complement an increasingly stable floor (12 catches on 15 short targets over his past three games).
Pittsburgh is going to need its WR1 to produce at a high level with three elite offenses coming up after this week — you should be sitting pretty if you’re counting on Pickens during your fantasy playoffs.
Jakobi Meyers | LV (vs.TB)
Jakobi Meyers has cleared 95 yards in three of his past four games and has been a top-24 receiver in four of his past five. He’s very much making the most of a brutal situation, though it is worth noting that this situation carries a downside, even if Meyers’ fantasy managers haven’t seen it recently.
Over his past four games, he’s earned 43 targets, an impressive number that stabilizes his floor, but with just two of those coming in the red zone, there really isn’t much of a ceiling to consider.
This obviously isn’t a bulletproof situation, that goes without saying. In this matchup, however, I think he’s a safe option. The Bucs blitz at the third highest rate and Meyers’ involvement only rises when an extra defender is brought into the equation (27% on-field target share when his QB is blitzed this season; 19.9% otherwise).
Jalen Coker | CAR (at PHI)
“The hope” is that Jalen Coker returns from consecutive DNPs (quad), and while I think there is something to the undrafted Holy Cross product, I’m not interested in him for the remainder of 2024 in redraft leagues.
With a productive Adam Thielen and a lost season, what motivation does this team have to push Coker in a significant way? This is the type of profile that I think of when it comes to trimming the fat off of your postseason roster — Coker might have a moment or two over the final month, but he’s never realistically going to be on your radar.
Move on.
Jalen McMillan | TB (vs. LV)
The 22-yard catch in overtime last week helped set up a (missed) field goal and there have been enough flashes of potential to be intrigued by Jalen McMillan for 2025, but the lack of consistency in the target department should relegate him to waiver wires in redraft leagues.
I won’t fault you if you want to hold for one more week against a defense that is in the bottom 10 in passer rating and touchdown rate. The Bucs lack a secondary pass catcher next to Mike Evans, but given how many targets this team funnels to the running back position, they are making it work.
McMillan was able to earn just three opportunities against the lowly Panthers last week on 34 routes run. That doesn’t happen to a player who I’m trusting with the fate of my fantasy squad in December.
Jalen Tolbert | DAL (vs. CIN)
The Cowboys were rewarded on Thanksgiving for a wide distribution of targets, and that’s the worst possible news for any managers trying to pluck usage off of the waiver wire for this advantageous matchup. In the win over New York, Cooper Rush targeted six players four to seven times; that’s not going to cut it.
The Bengals are a bottom-10 pass defense in terms of attempts, yards per completion, passer rating, touchdown rate, and sack percentage. They are gettable, and maybe Dallas hangs 30 points on them, but you’re overestimating your predictive powers if you think you can say who, outside of CeeDee Lamb and Rico Dowdle, is in the middle of that production.
Cowboys WR production, Week 13:
- KaVontae Turpin: four catches on five targets for 53 yards
- Tolbert: two catches on four targets for 41 yards
- Brandin Cooks: three catches on seven targets for 16 yards and a TD
- Jonathan Mingo: one catch on four targets for two yards
One of those players could have a big Week 14, but given the risk involved in betting on any of them, I’m not going in this direction unless I’m in true desperation mode.
Ja’Marr Chase | CIN (at DAL)
Ja’Marr Chase has caught more than five passes in five straight games and has found pay dirt in five of his past six as he builds a case to be considered the WR1 in 2025 fantasy drafts.
He hooked up with Joe Burrow on a scramble drill for a touchdown last week, displaying the type of non-verbal communication that Cincinnati was betting on when they paired these collegiate teammates with one another. By averaging 1.86 PPR points per target this season, the Bengals are essentially leaving production on the table every time they throw to someone else, something that I think they are aware of.t
The Cowboys have won consecutive games, but the opposing WR1 has been impactful in both (Terry McLaurin had the late 86-yard score in Week 12 and Malik Nabers vacuumed in 13 targets on Thanksgiving). It’s possible that no one on planet Earth can slow Chase, and it’s possible that Dallas can slow very few people on planet Earth — that combination lands him at the top of my Week 14 receiver rankings.
Jauan Jennings| SF (vs. CHI)
Jauan Jenning has a catch of 20+ yards in four straight games and has hauled in 78.3% of his targets over the past three games, trends that I like to continue as this team is again forced to adjust to life without Christian McCaffrey.
He’s pulled in a deep pass in three of his past four games, a strength that we should see on full display against the third-worst defense in terms of yards per deep pass. That’s good for the upside, but I’m more intrigued by the 25.5% red-zone target rate.
I still prefer Deebo Samuel Sr. over Jennings, though that’s more the result of me weighing the potential for him to get 3-5 opportunities on the ground. Jennings is my favorite to lead this team in targets this weekend, and that should be enough to land him in fantasy starting lineups.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA (at ARI)
It’s been tight for a few weeks, and I finally made the change this week — Jaxon Smith-Njigba is my highest-ranked Seahawk receiver for Week 14. When these teams squared off, JSN earned one-quarter of Geno Smith’s targets on his way to a 6-77-1 stat line, good for the third-best showing by a receiver against the Cardinals this season.
I see no reason to regress his production. Arizona allows the fifth-most yards per short pass this season, and four of the top six receiver games against them have come from a player with a sub-11-yard aDOT in that contest. Given how this team defends, I don’t think opportunity count is going to be an issue; with a 90.9% catch rate over the past three games, I trust the efficiency of the second-year receiver.
Make the most of your Smith-Njigba exposure this season — you’re not getting him at anywhere near the same price this summer.
Jaylen Waddle | MIA (vs. NYJ)
I think the Dolphins can have plenty of success in this spot and, on a per-dollar basis, I find myself leaning Jaylen Waddle over Tyreek Hill in the DFS streets. Efficiency hasn’t been the issue lately for Miami’s WR2 (14 catches on 16 targets over the past three weeks), and we saw Waddle produce at a high level (8-114-0) in New York last season during the one matchup in which Hill was active.
From a matchup standpoint, there is a path to this setting up better for Waddle. Seven of the top eight producing receivers against the Jets this season spent under 32% of their time in the slot.
Dolphins WR slot rates, 2024:
- Waddle: 19.4% of routes
- Hill: 32.1% of routes
New York allows the ninth most yards per completion this season (11.5), giving me confidence that Waddle’s recent efficiency results in a strong week. Maybe his third 100-yard game of the season?
Jerry Jeudy | CLE (at PIT)
You mean you didn’t have Jerry Jeudy penciled in for a career day facing a Denver defense with a Player of the Year candidate?
I know I didn’t. I bet under on Jeudy’s receiving-yardage total for the game — a ticket that was dead by halftime, and one that Jeudy cleared in a single quarter not once but twice on Monday night.
Jeudy’s heat chart looks like the ideal dating profile — the ability to impress in a variety of areas with no flaws.
Of course, it has to be too good to be true, right? That perfect person on your dating app usually comes with crazy parents or 17 cats or something like that, right?
Well, Jeudy has Jameis Winston. The tandem ran as hot as the sun last week (Jeudy accounted for 73% of Winston’s deep passing yards), but let’s not lose track of the fact that he, while performing at the peak of his powers in a revenge spot, ranked third on the Browns in targets.
This matchup has too many paths to disappointment for me to lock in Jeudy as a top-24 play. Yes, he was able to produce against Pittsburgh in the Week 12 win, but he was held without a target in two of those four quarters, and that’s a scary floor to consider.
For the season, the Steelers are the fourth-best third-down defense and rank third in deep-pass interception rate. Is the upside worth the risk?
Jeudy has five straight games with at least five catches and 70 receiving yards. That’s the second-longest such streak in the NFL this season (Justin Jefferson) and the longest such run in franchise history.
I’m not saying Jeudy falls off a cliff and Flexing him is fine, but I’m resisting the urge to chase the Week 13 performance and will be looking elsewhere in DFS. He’s going to project well, given that the main slate pricing comes out ahead of Monday Night Football.
Jonathan Mingo | DAL (vs. CIN)
Jonathan Mingo has earned 10 targets with the Cowboys since being acquired at the deadline — he has 10 yards to show for it.
It’s fair to have concerns about the value of the high-volume pieces of this offense (CeeDee Lamb and Rico Dowdle), making a secondary option like this well off the radar. I’d rather dig deep down depth charts in Detroit, Cincinnati, or Tampa Bay for sleeper candidates, offenses that offer more upside through the air than this version of the Dallas offense.
Jordan Addison | MIN (vs. ATL)
Jordan Addison pled not guilty to summer DUI charges on Tuesday, ruling out any immediate suspension in the process. The legal process will have to run its course and we can react as that happens, but that’s now a concern for 2025.
The second-year receiver was the top scorer at the position in Week 12 (8-162-1 in Chicago) and, in true Addison form, followed it with an underwhelming showing that saw him finish the week outside of the top 40. He did something eerily similar earlier in the season as he gave us a WR55 finish on the heels of his only other top-10 performance of the season — and therein lies the problem with this player on this offense.
Sam Darnold isn’t the most consistent QB, and Addison is certainly hit or miss on a weekly basis. With T.J. Hockenson rounding into physical form, this profile gets even thinner, and that is why I consistently have him ranked lower than most.
This week is no different. Not only do the Falcons allow an NFL-low 9.6 yards per completion, but they rank 31st in pressure rate. In most instances, that would be a note presented with an optimistic tone, but not here. For the season, Addison is averaging 31.4% fewer points per target when Darnold isn’t under pressure, my thought being that more time to throw gives Minnesota’s two elite target earners more time to operate.
Addison isn’t fully off the Flex radar, but I’d rather take a shot on the two veterans in Chicago or take a spin on the Jameis-coaster in Cleveland.
Joshua Palmer | LAC (at KC)
Joshua Palmer has surpassed seven expected PPR points just once over his past six games, a role that keeps him on waiver wires in most leagues. His 16.2-yard aDOT carries natural variance, and that means there’s always a chance for him to break out, especially against the ninth most vulnerable deep-ball defense on a per-pass basis.
If you want to play this lottery ticket, you have my best wishes. It’s not for me, but if this game script works in his favor and he repeats the 197-air-yard showing from Week 12, there’s a path to WR3 production.
JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC (vs. LAC)
Filling out your roster with a player on the field for the majority of snaps in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense is never a bad process, but with JuJu Smith-Schuster posting just three receptions on 65 routes in his three games back after missing nearly a month, I can’t express much optimism.
The Chargers allow the eighth-lowest passer rating when opponents throw to the slot, making them a tough matchup for a player who hasn’t shown much potential recently. If you’re looking long-term, each of Kansas City’s next two opponents is more vulnerable to Smith-Schuster’s route tree than the league average — he’s a hold for me.
Justin Jefferson | MIN (vs. ATL)
Justin Jefferson has been held without a catch in consecutive first quarters, and while that’s not ideal, I think it’s a net positive long-term.
The slow starts tell me that Sam Darnold is progressing through his reads and playing the position with maturity. Sure, that’s meant a recent downtick in Jefferson’s production (four straight games with under 100 yards and six straight without a score), but if you take a step back and look at the big picture, you’ll realize that a QB operating like this will take full advantage of when Jefferson is winning his routes, something that happens in most situations.
Jefferson remains a top-five receiver moving forward and is on the short list of players who can lead the position in scoring as we come down the home stretch (Bears, Seahawks, and Packers to finish the season after this weekend).
Keenan Allen | CHI (at SF)
Keenan Allen’s profile is changing. It gave you what you needed last week (5-73-2), but be careful in assuming that his increased reliance on deep passes recently is going to result in consistent production. In Weeks 10-11, the veteran receiver totaled 103 air yards, but over his past two games, he’s averaged 119.1 air yards per contest, a drastic usage shift that requires our attention.
Allen’s aDOT by week, 2024:
- Week 10 vs. New England Patriots: 6.2 yards
- Week 11 vs. Green Bay Packers: 8.3 yards
- Week 12 vs. Minnesota Vikings: 8.8 yards
- Week 13 at Detroit Lions: 13.3 yards
The deep shots have paid off recently (30-yard catch in consecutive games, his first grabs over 22 yards as a Bear); while those splash plays aren’t going to always connect, the fact that Allen has quietly seen at least seven targets in three straight (and five of six) games helps elevate his projectable floor.
He’s never going to rank as a WR2 for me due to the variance that comes with being attached to Caleb Williams and with significant target competition, but the 49ers allow touchdowns at the fourth-highest rate this season (27.4% of drives) — that makes him a perfectly reasonable Flex option in all formats.
Keon Coleman | BUF (at LAR)
Keon Coleman has now missed three straight games with a wrist injury, and his status for this game remains up in the air. Buffalo values the top seed in the AFC and will want to enter the playoffs with confidence in their rookie, so I’m assuming they give him every chance to develop over the final month of the season; however, due to the extended absence, this is obviously a situation that needs to be monitored.
As things stand right now, I’m benching Coleman in season-long situations. Even if he plays, you likely have three if not four receivers that I rank ahead of him — but for GPPs? Now we are talking.
The injury is likely to suppress his ownership in a significant way, and that is exactly the time to take the shot (presuming he’s active, of course). The Rams allow the fourth-highest opponent passer rating this season on deep passes; we are one Josh Allen bomb away from getting Coleman to pay off his DFS price tag and encourage the Rams to play up-tempo football, thus featuring another DFS staple of mine this week in Cooper Kupp.
Khalil Shakir | BUF (at LAR)
Rinse and repeat.
I find that players like Khalil Shakir have a way of being on successful fantasy teams. He’s rarely going to put your team on his back, but when the data is released in a few weeks about the most popular players on fantasy teams that qualified for the postseason, I’m betting we see his name.
That’s now six straight games with at least seven targets for Shakir, a volume level that allows him to overcome having not scored since September. We’ve seen his efficiency fall off a cliff lately (18 catches on 28 targets over his past three games), but we have enough of a sample size to believe, with confidence, that he and Josh Allen will sort that out sooner than later (81 catches on 90 targets in his 25 games before this “slump”).
I had to downgrade him a little based on specifics in this matchup, though he remains a starter in all PPR leagues. The Rams create pressure at the fifth-highest rate this season, and Shakir’s on-field target share dips from 31.4% to 16.5% when Allen is feeling the heat.
Even with that note, I prefer him over other volume-based receivers like Jakobi Meyers, Jauan Jennings, and Keenan Allen for Week 14.
Ladd McConkey | LAC (at KC)
First and foremost, there is a nagging knee injury to consider when it comes to Ladd McConkey. It doesn’t sound overly serious, but with this game being played on Sunday night, it requires your full attention, as you might be forced to make tough decisions without an official game status in hand.
At this moment, I’m operating with optimism until told otherwise, he’s been that good. If you’re trying to really protect yourself, adding JuJu Smith-Schuster, Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, or Andrei Iosivas is a savvy move.
McConkey has surpassed PPR expectations based on his targets in six straight games and has done so with only a single look in the end zone — he’s caught 81% of his targets across those contests in a connection that is producing efficiency numbers well beyond what you’d expect in a first season together.
We know that this slot machine can win in a hurry off the line of scrimmage, we’ve seen that from Day 1. What has my attention in a league-winning sort of way is the fact that he posted 113 air yards on Sunday (his second-highest of the season) and has three straight games with multiple deep receptions (zero such performances through 10 weeks).
He deserves to be locked into lineups in all formats at this point, and you might be surprised at just how high he projects when we take a first look at 2025 rankings in two months.
Malik Nabers | NYG (vs. NO)
Malik Nabers recorded his seventh double-digit target game of the season — the volume is a must-have, not a nice to have, given the lack of quality play under center in New York. Just twice this season has Nabers produced over PPR expectations, two instances that came back in September.
Wan’Dale Robinson wasn’t effective on Thanksgiving, and that allowed Nabers to essentially be the only asset in this passing game over the final 32 minutes. When all was said and done, Nabers more than doubled all of his teammates in targets last week; if his role evolves from field stretcher to chain mover in this limited offense, you could sell me on him posting top-10 numbers this weekend.
Possession receivers have accounted for three of the four 20-point games from WRs against the Saints this season:
- Chris Godwin (Week 6: 35.5 PPR points)
- Ladd McConkey (Week 8: 29.1)
- JuJu Smith Schuster (Week 5: 20.0)
I tend to think that Robinson bounces back against the worst YAC defense in the league, and that is why Nabers is a mid-range WR2 for me this week, but I do think he offers more of a production floor in this specific matchup than most.
It’s been an up-and-down season for the rookie, but loyal fantasy managers could be rewarded handsomely with the Ravens, Falcons, and Colts left on his fantasy schedule after Sunday.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling | NO (at NYG)
Maybe I’m alone, but didn’t Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s 28-yard touchdown look similar to his much longer scores? That is, it was a few steps and a “run under it” lob. This one was shorter, but all of his scores generally look the same as he has one way of winning routes.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Deep ball MASTER. Touchdown Saints! pic.twitter.com/OHFuL1uwvi
— Arye Pulli (@AryePulli) December 1, 2024
That’s a profile that I’m generally not overly interested in, but MVS (69.8% of his points have come on TD receptions this season) has my attention this week. The Saints continue to suffer injuries, thus opening up consistent targets; when it only takes one perfectly thrown pass to pay off your faith in him, that’s huge.
If the target projection is reasonably stable and the opponent owns the lowest interception rate in the league (0.3% of pass attempts), why not gamble? The Saints have no real reason not to try with the deep passes, and in an offense with plenty of limitations, those quick hitters offer plenty of appeal — sustaining a long-lasting drive just isn’t in the cards for this offense as currently constructed.
Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI (v. SEA)
The 12 targets in Minnesota last week were a season-high for Marvin Harrison Jr. and good to see after totaling just 11 in the previous two weeks, but the efficiency concerns weren’t erased (five catches and 5.0 yards per target). The high-pedigree rookie has been held significantly under fantasy expectations in six of his past eight games, making the volume of looks a mandate for him to return value as opposed to a nice-to-have.
Not to nitpick, but the volume he got last week came in a highly concentrated fashion, something we continue to see from Harrison. He didn’t have a catch until the final 70 seconds of the first half, a pass that was Kyler Murray’s 15th completion of the afternoon.
I take a negative view of the short-term and a positive one long-term. I don’t see the sporadic usage changing this year, and that’s going to cap his weekly consistency, but in the scope of 2025, what if those high-target stretches are extended for longer periods after having a year to gel?
Harrison is a WR2 this week and moving forward for the rest of this season. I anticipate getting more shares of him at somewhat of a suppressed cost next season — the profile remains impressive, but the cost should be less prohibitive.
Michael Wilson | ARI (vs. SEA)
Michael Wilson saw seven targets last week in Minnesota, matching his second-highest total of the season and marking a step in the right direction. I’ll be tracking his ability to earn targets down the stretch of this season and weighing any development shown into my 2025 rankings, but I just can’t get there as a true Flex option.
We don’t have enough proof of his role being one of volume, and that makes his 18.4% decline in aDOT this season enough to make him more fantasy roster depth than a lineup threat. If you’re struggling for options, we’ve at least seen Wilson produce down the field in this matchup (catches of 24 and 30 yards in the Week 12 meeting), making him a dart I’d throw over a Quentin Johnson or Marquez Valdes-Scantling type this week.
Mike Evans | TB (vs. LV)
Mike Evans made a twirling one-handed grab in the back of the end zone on his first target of Week 13 because that’s what he does. His 101 touchdown catches tell the story of him being as tough a cover in scoring situations as anyone in this generation. Only the Panthers allow more trips inside the 20-yard line than the Raiders this season, and that allows Tampa Bay’s alpha to hold plenty of scoring equity in this spot.
What has me a little worried is the success of underneath options against Vegas and Baker Mayfield’s propensity to use his running backs in those situations. The Raiders have the third-lowest opponent aDOT this year, and the top-eight WR performances against this defense posted a weekly aDOT of 11.5 yards or lower.
Evans’ aDOT is as low as it’s been, but he’s far from a check-down option (aDOT: 12.6). I’d be surprised if we get a repeat of his 8-118-1 stat line from the weekend, and that means he probably doesn’t swing your matchup, but 12-15 PPR points are a good bet and deserving of being locked into your lineup.
Mike Williams | PIT (vs. CLE)
I suspect that we will look back at the 2024 NFL trade deadline in six weeks and acknowledge the value added by some of the true contenders. Diontae Johnson joining the Ravens might pay off with time, and Mike Williams with these Steelers could too, but that doesn’t help us today, and I don’t think that’s going to change this week.
Williams’ weekly snap shares with Pittsburgh:
- Week 11 vs. Baltimore Ravens: 31.1%
- Week 12 at Cleveland Browns: 28.4%
- Week 13 at Cincinnati Bengals: 24.2%
Williams’ big catch with Pittsburgh was the 32-yard touchdown that we all remember, but he’s otherwise been an afterthought. Are they saving him? Is he struggling with the playbook?
I like the idea of him in this offense, but at this point, I think it’s safe to say that redraft fantasy managers can stop holding onto hope. Even if Williams sees his role expand, there’s not enough time left in the fantasy season for him to emerge into a Flex-worthy name.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | TEN (vs. JAX)
Who do we think of when it comes to touchdown-only players? I polled the crew here at PFN and got some fun names that put me in a time machine:
- Tommy Vardell (1997-98): TD on 16.3% of touches
- Brandon Jacobs (2005): TD on 14.3% of touches
- Mike Tolbert (2012): TD on 13% of carries
- TJ Duckett (2008): TD on 12.9% of touches
- Mike Alstott (2005): TD on 11.8% of touches
Those are cute names. And I don’t disagree with any of them — those players, in those seasons, were put on the field for one purpose and one purpose only.
- Westbrook-Ikhine (2024): TD on 40% of touches
What we are seeing is as historic as it is unsustainable. For the season, 73.1% of his PPR points this season have come on touchdown receptions, a rate that is difficult to comprehend. A 14.4% on-field target share would have trouble cracking my top 30 receivers in any offense, let alone a Will Levis-led unit.
I don’t own Westbrook-Ikhine anywhere, but if I did, I’d have benched him every week this season. I’m a math guy, and that remains the proper process play — if you’re buying his vibes as sustainable (despite the lack of a single elite trait), more power to you. I’ll side with logic and statistics and take my chances.
Parker Washington | JAX (at TEN)
If you watched four minutes of the Jaguars game on Sunday, you saw Parker Washington. He saw at least three targets in three of four quarters of the loss to the Texans on his way to leading the team in receiving yards (103) and the game in targets.
Included in the nice effort were a 30-yard grab from Trevor Lawrence and a 22-yarder from Mac Jones, proof that his involvement was the function of how this team game-planned. That’s great to see, but what is to say that the specific designs weren’t matchup-driven as opposed to the unlocking of the second-year receiver out of Penn State?
In Week 13, 75% of his targets traveled at least 10 yards in the air, bringing on risk on a few levels. First of all, that means you’re trusting Mac Jones down the field, and we have proof that is dangerous. More worrisome for me, however, is the skill duplication with Brian Thomas Jr., a player who is simply better at stretching the field.
Washington is a popular add, and I don’t have a problem with that, but I’m not ranking him as a top-40 option against the third-best pass defense in terms of yards per pass. In eight games before last week’s breakout, Washington caught seven passes on 131 routes — I need to see more before going this direction over the Elijah Moore, Rome Odunze, or Xavier Legette types from whom we have a larger sample of viable target-earning abilities.
Puka Nacua | LAR (vs. BUF)
Puka Nacua has scored or reached a baker’s dozen in targets in four straight games, establishing himself as the Los Angeles Rams’ WR1 and someone whom the NFL has yet to determine how to slow down.
You deserve to have the utmost confidence in Nacua. He’s done more than enough since the beginning of last season to consider him matchup-proof. That said, if I want exposure to this passing offense in a keep-up spot with the Bills in a daily format, it’s Cooper Kupp over Nacua.
The Rams’ second-year receiver is Los Angeles’ primary perimeter threat, which is the spot on the field where the Bills focus. Through 13 weeks, Buffalo, on targets thrown out wide, ranks first in passer rating, first in interception rate, and third in yards per pass attempt.
That’s nitpicking at the highest level; like the Bengals, the Rams have a pair of top-15 receivers that you’re plugging in weekly and not thinking twice.
Quentin Johnston | LAC (at KC)
If it wasn’t for the artist known as Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Quentin Johnston scoring once every four receptions would be the poster profile when it comes to regression. It’s been more than a month since Johnston caught more than two passes in a game, and the inefficiencies have hit a fever pitch over his past three games (four catches on 17 targets).
Johnston hauled in just one of five targets for a whopping nine yards in the first meeting with the Chiefs, though I think there is more upside this week than that ugly stat line suggests (KC: ninth-most yards per deep pass attempt allowed).
There’s a time and place for rolling Johnston out there as your Flex, and if you’re in a position to swallow risk for reward, go for it. I rank based on mean outcomes, and until we see Johnston earn looks at a consistent rate (under four catches in eight of 10 games), he’s not going to grade as a play.
Ricky Pearsall | SF (vs. CHI)
It’s not happening. The Brandon Aiyuk injury opened up the path to consistent playing time for Ricky Pearsall, but the rookie isn’t ready to be a fantasy asset just yet.
A snap share over 65% in consecutive games is encouraging, and the reps figure to prove fruitful with time. This roster might look different next year, and this experience will have me higher on Pearsall in August than you are. I like this player and his long-term fit, but with zero catches on 61 routes over the past three games, there’s no reason to try to get ahead of a breakout this season.
Rome Odunze | CHI (at SF)
Rome Odunze has earned 16 targets over the past two weeks, growth that is nice to see as this young offense begins to take shape long-term. Unfortunately, like a toddler learning to walk, it’s not all seamless.
Despite all of the volume, Odunze has 13.4 PPR points to show for the spike in usage. He’s seen at least four deep targets in three straight games, and while that gives him the potential to break out any day now, this matchup doesn’t profile as the right spot to roll the dice.
Opponents average just 9.3 yards per deep pass against the 49ers this season (fourth-lowest), projecting this to be another game with plenty of shots and little success. Anthony Richardson has the lowest passer rating among qualified QBs this season at 64.3 — that’s 17.7 points higher than the number of opponents that have posted when throwing deep against San Francisco this season.
This looks like a conservative game plan for Caleb Williams, and that’s not the type of projection I want as an Odunze manager.
Tee Higgins | CIN (at DAL)
Tee Higgins has four top-20 finishes in his seven games this season and has scored five times in his past five games. On a per-game rate, this is the best season of his career when it comes to earning end-zone looks. And by earning a target on 29.3% of his red-zone routes, Higgins’ scoring equity is as high as it’s ever been.
The Cowboys couldn’t stop the Giants from getting the ball to their elite playmaking receiver (Malik Nabers accounted for 38.1% of New York’s receptions on a 40.6% target share), and the Bengals have two players like that who are a threat to score on every target they get.
I have Higgins ranked behind Ja’Marr Chase, but both are to be considered WR1s with the potential to swing your matchup in the final game of Week 14.
Tyler Lockett | SEA (at ARI)
Week 9 was the last time Tyler Lockett finished as a top-65 receiver. And although this matchup isn’t scary, it’s the same secondary that held the veteran receiver to just four fantasy points two weeks ago (10.7% target share).
Seattle’s offense (21st in points scored per drive) isn’t nearly consistent enough to sustain a running back and three receivers. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has separated himself from Lockett when it comes to the featured role in the short-to-intermediate pass game, rendering the latter unusable in all formats.
If you’re holding Lockett at this point in the season, you’re grasping at a name you recognize as opposed to reacting to the most current information that we have access to.
Tyreek Hill | MIA (vs. NYJ)
Tyreek Hill caught a Jonnu Smith drop in the end zone on Thanksgiving against the Packers in garbage time, giving him a touchdown in three of his past four games. It was a fortunate play, but part of putting up fantasy numbers is being in the right place to succeed, and at the very least, Hill did that in Week 13.
Over the past three weeks, Miami’s WR1 has 18 catches, and if you told me that we’d be getting six receptions per game, I’d take it to the bank. Hill doesn’t have a catch gaining more than 30 yards since the 80-yarder in Week 1 (vs. Jacksonville), a lack of big plays that feels impossible.
It could flip this week, and that potential has me continuing to play him with high expectations, even if the box scores haven’t proven that wise. The Jets have the second-highest opponent aDOT, and we saw the Dolphins’ offense use Hill as their sun last season in his lone game against them (9-102-1 on a 42.9% target share).
I’ve got Hill ranked as a low-end WR1 and could see him being a “pay up to be different” option in DFS contests.
Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG (vs. NO)
If you want to get cute in a DFS format, I could see going in the Wan’Dale Robinson direction. The Saints allow more yards per short pass attempt than any defense in the NFL, making one of those double-digit target afternoons very possible.
“Possible,” not “projectable”.
Robinson saw just two targets last week (6.3% share), and given the limited potential of New York’s offense, that’s brutal. He finished Thanksgiving ranked sixth on the Giants in receiving yards for Week 13, something that I would have told you was close to impossible in a healthy game (76.3% snap share).
But it did, and without this offense giving us much reason for optimism, I can’t reasonably rank Robinson as a top-40 receiver, even in full PPR settings — that’s part of what makes him a viable DFS punt play.
Xavier Legette | CAR (at PHI)
Adam Thielen was the Panthers’ receiver who paid the bills last week, but his role is at risk with Jalen Coker (quad) expected back. Thus, Xavier Legette is my highest-ranked WR in Carolina this week and moving forward.
The rookie has reached double digits in expected PPR points in four of his past five games, a role-based number that is more likely to result in “actual” production with time now that Bryce Young is showing glimmers of hope.
In this specific match, my “highest-ranked Panthers WR” praise isn’t impactful when it comes to setting lineups. The Eagles are the second-best points-per-drive defense since Week 8 and could feast on this offense.
If I can help it this week, I want no part of this Carolina offense. We can circle back next week with the Cowboys coming to town.
Xavier Worthy | KC (vs. LAC)
Xavier Worthy caught a season-high five passes last week, and while consistency remains an issue, breadcrumbs of growth are slowly being laid. The burner has seen his average depth of target decline in four straight games, something that tells me that Andy Reid is encouraged by the development of his first-round pick.
Many fantasy managers look at the aDOT of a player like Worthy and want it to skyrocket. I’m different. The speed and single-play upside isn’t going anywhere; that will remain in Worthy’s profile as long as he’s healthy.
I have the utmost faith in the Reid/Patrick Mahomes tandem to take their shots, making a regressing aDOT a floor elevator to hold us over while we wait for the splash play.
The Chargers are an elite defense, but they do allow 12.5% of deep passes to go for touchdowns, the second-highest rate in the league and nearly double the NFL average. The slate-breaking potential is there, and if the lowering of his aDOT is sustained, we have the potential to Flex Worthy without the worry of a zero.