The New Orleans Saints will face the New York Giants in Week 14. We have fantasy football start-sit advice for every fantasy-relevant player for the Saints so you can make the best decisions for your lineups.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 14 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Derek Carr, QB
If you’re looking for a cheap DFS play or lack confidence in your starter, can I sell you some Derek Carr stock for one week?
Taysom Hill is no longer a threat to soak up all of the touchdown equity when this offense gets inside the red zone, a value that can’t be overlooked (six rushing scores this season). For better or worse, Carr will be trusted with finishing drives, and I like the sounds of that against a Giants defense that ranks 20th in yards allowed per drive (31.5).
But I’ve buried the lead.
For whatever reason, Carr has thrived recently when blitzed. The elevation of Marquez Valdes-Scantling certainly plays into that, as he is a tough single-man cover to shut down and defenses have to surrender just about everything underneath. Over his past three games, Carr has completed 15 of his 19 passes for 240 yards and a pair of scores against blitzes, and he just so happens to draw the defense that is bringing the heat more than anyone since Week 8.
If all else fails, we are always one Carr moon ball away from turning an average day into a usable one, and that bailout option holds even more value this week than most with the Giants allowing the highest passer rating on deep passes.
I’m not ranking Carr as a starter in most formats, but he’s in a tier that stretches from QB20 up to QB13 — if you’re getting creative, this is the way I’d do it.
Alvin Kamara, RB
Not a single one of Alvin Kamara’s 206 carries this season has gained 25 yards, and he hasn’t scored since mid-October. Yet, the volume and versatility are nothing short of elite, which has made this run of floor outcomes digestible.
Kamara enters this week with four straight 20-touch games and has eight games this season with at least six targets — the same number as DK Metcalf, Tyreek Hill, and Cooper Kupp. Few players can overcome ordinary efficiency at this level, so while Kamara might not be the most exciting player out there, you’re rarely losing a week because you trusted him as your RB2.
The Giants are the best matchup he can face in terms of yards per carry allowed to running backs (only New Orleans’ defense is worse this season), and three of the four instances in which an RB has scored 19 PPR points against New York have come in the past three games (Chuba Hubbard, Bucky Irving, and Rico Dowdle).
With the Commanders, Packers, and Raiders on tap after this, Kamara could bookend this season with spike stretches, something his fantasy managers would embrace with open arms. I’ve been lower than the industry on Kamara for the majority of this season, but even I have him labeled as an RB1 the rest of the way.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR
Maybe I’m alone, but didn’t Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s 28-yard touchdown look similar to his much longer scores? That is, it was a few steps and a “run under it” lob. This one was shorter, but all of his scores generally look the same as he has one way of winning routes.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Deep ball MASTER. Touchdown Saints! pic.twitter.com/OHFuL1uwvi
— Arye Pulli (@AryePulli) December 1, 2024
That’s a profile that I’m generally not overly interested in, but MVS (69.8% of his points have come on TD receptions this season) has my attention this week. The Saints continue to suffer injuries, thus opening up consistent targets; when it only takes one perfectly thrown pass to pay off your faith in him, that’s huge.
If the target projection is reasonably stable and the opponent owns the lowest interception rate in the league (0.3% of pass attempts), why not gamble? The Saints have no real reason not to try with the deep passes, and in an offense with plenty of limitations, those quick hitters offer plenty of appeal — sustaining a long-lasting drive just isn’t in the cards for this offense as currently constructed.
Juwan Johnson, TE
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Johnson is active for today's game
Juwan Johnson finished Week 13’s loss with a season-high seven targets, and we could see that level of involvement sustained as a result of the Taysom Hill injury.
We’ve seen a few splash plays from New Orleans’ offense, but don’t let that fool you. This is a very cautious offense that is plenty capable of funneling looks in volume to a chain mover like Johnson.
Over the Saints’ past three games, Derek Carr has a 5.0-yard average depth of throw when not targeting Marquez Valdes-Scantling. This is a top-10 offense in rush rate over expectation, and that’s holding back my pass-attempt projection this week. However, looking for 7-10 PPR points is plenty reasonable, something that should be enough to keep you competitive, even if it’s not going to win you your matchup.
Taysom Hill, TE
Taysom Hill’s season came to an end on Sunday, ending what was a nice run as a cheat code at the position. What the future holds for the 34-year-old is anyone’s guess (one year remaining on his deal), and his fantasy stock next season will be evaluated with time as the Saints get healthier. But for the sake of 2024, you can move on from a player who appeared destined to support a deep playoff run.
Juwan Johnson is the add. While he isn’t walking into Hill’s role, he does profile as a reasonable option as we approach the stretch run of the fantasy season.
Saints at Buccaneers Trends and Insights
New Orleans Saints
Team: The Saints have held the ball for under 23 minutes in consecutive games, totaling 10 points on 106 offensive plays over that stretch
QB: Spencer Rattler has completed 56% of his passes just once this season and has two more multi-interception games than he has multi-TD games.
Offense: The Saints converted just one-of-10 third downs on Sunday, their lowest rate of the season (four games under 30% this season),
Defense: The Saints have allowed a score on the majority of opponent drives four times this season, two coming over the past two weeks.
Fantasy: Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson chewed up 44.1% of New Orleans’ targets and 45% of their receptions.
Betting: New Orleans has covered six straight road divisional games in which they’ve closed as an underdog.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: Since the beginning of November, Tampa Bay is 5-3, a record that could have swung even more in their favor (one overtime loss and the other two coming by no more than three points).
QB: Baker Mayfield's average QB+ is 78.6 this season. That ranks favorably to 2020 Tom Brady (77.9) as he led the Bucs to a Super Bowl win.
Offense: On Sunday, Bucky Irving became the second player this season with a 30+ yard catch and a 30+ yard run in multiple games, joining Saquon Barkley.
Defense: For the first time this season, Tampa Bay has failed to force a turnover in consecutive games.
Fantasy: Jalen McMillan has a touchdown catch in four straight games, the longest streak by a rookie since Lee Evans (2004).
Betting: The Bucs are 6-2 ATS over their past eight games and have seen over tickets cash in each of their past three.