The Buffalo Bills will face the Los Angeles Rams in Week 14. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Bills skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 14 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Josh Allen, QB
Josh Allen is the heavy MVP favorite for a reason, and I can’t see the fourth-worst YPA pass defense slowing him down. That doesn’t mean he repeats his historic pass-rush-receiving TD trifecta from Sunday night, but he’s a great bet to deliver his sixth top-five finish of the week.
Allen’s reckless aggression is gone, and it looks good on him. On non-pressured pass attempts this season, his average depth of throw sits at just six yards (career average: 7.4), and that has supported an upward-ticking passer rating in such spots (2022: 96.6; 2023: 101.9; and 2024: 108.4).
Buffalo is chasing the top seed in the AFC, and as long as that dream is alive, you’re playing Allen with all the confidence in the world.
James Cook, RB
James Cook went dashing through the snow on Sunday night for a 65-yard touchdown (the longest play of his career) against the 49ers on his way to his fourth RB1 finish over his past five games. Josh Allen is playing like an MVP, and Ray Davis has looked good, yet nothing is standing in the way of Cook producing elite numbers.
Teams are loading up to stop the run against Buffalo, and it doesn’t really matter. Cook has run into a loaded box 49.7% of the time this season (2023: 24.9%); despite the chaos in front of him, his yards per carry after contact this season are up 15.9% from a season ago.
All signs are pointing in the right direction, and the fifth-worst rush defense by EPA is unlikely to slow that momentum. Cook has 11 rushing scores on 151 carries this season — not too shabby for a player who had four on 326 attempts through the first two years of his career.
Ray Davis, RB
Ray Davis scored on the second drive in a blizzard against the 49ers on Sunday night, more the result of limited defensive footing than anything. He did set up the score with a 13-yard run, and he continues to run hard, though I’m not sure it matters.
There were four Bills with a carry on that touchdown drive as they were acclimating to the conditions and imposing their will.
First two Bills drives, Week 13:
- James Cook: four carries for three yards
- Davis: three carries for 19 yards and a TD
- Ty Johnson: two carries for 12 yards
- Josh Allen: two carries for 10 yards
For Davis’ path to hold stand-alone value, he needs to do more than impress. He would need some help from James Cook (it didn’t happen last week: 14 carries for 107 yards and a touchdown) and hold off Josh Allen’s desire to finish drives himself.
Davis is a strong handcuff and has been impressive, but I still can’t get there when it comes to ranking him as a viable Flex option. He ranks at the top of my backup RBs, both in terms of value to be gained by way of injury and Week 14 projections, but that isn’t enough to get him inside of my top 30 at the position (for reference, I prefer the Jayeln Warren and Kareem Hunts of the world over him in you’re in a bind).
Amari Cooper, WR
Is it possible that the idea of Amari Cooper in Buffalo is more valuable than the actual version of him? Over his past three games, the former Brown has produced just 70 yards of offense on 61 routes, a level of production that isn’t close to good enough.
The Rams’ defense as a whole has struggled, but not in the spots that mean the most for a player like Cooper. This season, Los Angeles is the sixth-rest red-zone defense, making a bail-out cheap touchdown a little difficult to count on. That’s not to say that receivers haven’t had their moments against this unit, but the top six WR games in this matchup had a cumulative aDOT of 15.4 yards.
Cooper can win down the field, but he’s yet to reach 70 air yards in a game with Buffalo, and I’m not sure that changes this week should Keon Coleman (wrist) return. He still hasn’t been extended to a 51% snap share in a game with this team; until that changes, I’m looking for reasons to start other players in my Flex position.
Keon Coleman, WR
Keon Coleman has now missed three straight games with a wrist injury, and his status for this game remains up in the air. Buffalo values the top seed in the AFC and will want to enter the playoffs with confidence in their rookie, so I’m assuming they give him every chance to develop over the final month of the season; however, due to the extended absence, this is obviously a situation that needs to be monitored.
As things stand right now, I’m benching Coleman in season-long situations. Even if he plays, you likely have three if not four receivers that I rank ahead of him — but for GPPs? Now we are talking.
The injury is likely to suppress his ownership in a significant way, and that is exactly the time to take the shot (presuming he’s active, of course). The Rams allow the fourth-highest opponent passer rating this season on deep passes; we are one Josh Allen bomb away from getting Coleman to pay off his DFS price tag and encourage the Rams to play up-tempo football, thus featuring another DFS staple of mine this week in Cooper Kupp.
Khalil Shakir, WR
Rinse and repeat.
I find that players like Khalil Shakir have a way of being on successful fantasy teams. He’s rarely going to put your team on his back, but when the data is released in a few weeks about the most popular players on fantasy teams that qualified for the postseason, I’m betting we see his name.
That’s now six straight games with at least seven targets for Shakir, a volume level that allows him to overcome having not scored since September. We’ve seen his efficiency fall off a cliff lately (18 catches on 28 targets over his past three games), but we have enough of a sample size to believe, with confidence, that he and Josh Allen will sort that out sooner than later (81 catches on 90 targets in his 25 games before this “slump”).
I had to downgrade him a little based on specifics in this matchup, though he remains a starter in all PPR leagues. The Rams create pressure at the fifth-highest rate this season, and Shakir’s on-field target share dips from 31.4% to 16.5% when Allen is feeling the heat.
Even with that note, I prefer him over other volume-based receivers like Jakobi Meyers, Jauan Jennings, and Keenan Allen for Week 14.
Dalton Kincaid, TE
Dalton Kincaid has missed consecutive games with a knee injury. Given the lack of previous production, it’s hard to go back to Buffalo’s tight end until we get proof of full health.
His struggles through two months have lost Kincaid the benefit of the doubt that a strong rookie campaign earned him. This year, he’s yet to reach 55 yards a single time and only has two scores on his ledger despite the potency of this offense,
In theory, I still like the idea of Kincaid and what he offers to this team, but we’ve yet to see him thrive in 2024, and the role is at risk as the receivers trend toward full strength. I’m an optimist at heart and am holding, but I don’t see an avenue to playing him with confidence this weekend, even with six teams on a bye.
Post-hype option in 2025?
Dawson Knox, TE
Dawson Knox has been making splash plays over his past three games (136 yards on eight catches), and that’s not a bad profile to take into a matchup against EPA’s ninth-worst pass defense this season.
It goes without saying that Knox’s value is tied to the status of Dalton Kincaid. With the young tight end healthy to open the season, Knox didn’t reach 20 routes run for the first time until November. That means he’s not worth a spot on your roster if he’s filling the TE2 role, but should he get another week atop the depth chart, he can again serve as a viable option.