The Cleveland Browns will face the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 14. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Browns skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 14 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Jameis Winston, QB
Jameis Winston had a pair of 44-yard completions in the first quarter (Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore) on Monday night, and that was just the beginning. Against a stingy Broncos defense, the wildest ride in fantasy sports threw the ball 58 times for 497 yards with four touchdowns, three sacks, two pick-sixes, and a partridge in a pear tree.
We got the good, the bad, and the ugly all wrapped into a 60-minute package, and it was as entertaining as you’d assume it would be.
If you extend Winston’s five starts across a full season …
- 741 passes (109 more than the next highest pace)
- 5,712 passing yards (current NFL record: 5,477)
- 78 deep completions (the highest total in the 2000s)
- 34 pass TDs (only three players are tracking to do that this year)
- 24 INTs (highest average in the league)
As you’d expect, when you add a dash of pressure to this profile, you get a dish that, somehow, increases even further in variance. Winston has completed a career-low 43.8% of his passes when blitzed this season, but, of course, since 2022, he’s averaging 15 yards per pressured completion (second-highest to Jordan Love amongst QBs who have been in the league for all three of those seasons).
So yeah, expect more shenanigans this week. All of the pressure stats from the Steelers are trending up, which is what has me fading Cleveland’s random number generator in Week 14.
Pittsburgh’s pressure rate when blitzing, 2024:
- Weeks 1-7: 40.4% (ranking 20th)
- Weeks 8-13: 48.4% (ranking seventh)
The macro trends show that this team is getting better at creating chaos when they want to and the micro trends reflect a similar pattern.
I’m expecting another afternoon of fun, I’m just not sure the fruits are quite as sweet as they were last week.
Jerome Ford, RB
Jerome Ford reached 10 touches on Monday night, something he hadn’t done in nearly two months. The Browns seemed to take an awfully cautious approach with Nick Chubb last week (they haven’t mentioned a health-based reason for that approach), and that allowed Ford to elevate his role from backup to part of a committee.
Wonderful.
This backfield is struggling to give us one weekly viable option, and if this divvying of responsibilities is here to stay, there won’t be a single Browns RB worthy of Flex consideration. With this being a lost season, I think it’s logical to manage Chubb’s reps, especially if this team is going to fully embrace the Jameis Winston experience. You’re holding Ford right now and hoping that he posts another 65.5% snap share rate (36.4% in the snow against these Steelers in Week 12).
If he can flirt with two-thirds of the snaps in an offense that is, for better or worse, going to push the envelope, there’s a world in which you’re considering him as a Flex play with your league championship on the line.
- Week 16 at Cincinnati Bengals
- Week 17 vs. Miami Dolphins
Nick Chubb, RB
Nick Chubb was able to get home for you last week if you elected to go that direction on Monday night courtesy of a five-yard touchdown catch in the fourth quarter, but I’d be lying if I said I was the least bit encouraged by the performance.
The Browns opted to go with Jerome Ford for extended periods of time against the Broncos, and I can’t say that I blame them. Not only did Ford run reasonably well (nine carries for 41 yards with a 21-yard reception on his lone target), but Chubb failed to get past the line of scrimmage on four of his nine rush attempts.
That raised his season rate to 28%, a number that is far too high in any situation, let alone within a profile that doesn’t include much per-carry upside (10+ yards on just four of his 82 carries).
Now, there are reasons for that. The soon-to-be 29-year-old is coming off of a devastating knee injury and has had a brutal runout in terms of schedule. Logic would state that he gets better with time — I’m willing to buy that pitch.
But the schedule doesn’t lighten this week (he ran 20 times for 59 yards with a long gain of seven yards in this matchup two weeks ago), and for the second time in three weeks, he’s being asked to play on short rest.
The Steelers allow rushing touchdowns to running backs at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, and that’s enough for Chubb to rank over Ford for me this week, but that doesn’t land him in my must-start tier.
I have him sitting in the same tier as Kareem Hunt, Jaylen Warren, and both Jacksonville running backs — all of whom come with limitations and all of whom I’d play a receiver with upside over (Jerry Jeudy, Brian Thomas Jr., etc.).
Cedric Tillman, WR
Week 18 Status: OUT
Cedric Tillman didn’t practice last week (concussion) and enters this week still in protocol. Given how productive Jerry Jeudy was on Monday night, I worry that the deep role Tillman left won’t be there when he returns.
For the season, Tillman owns a 12.3-yard aDOT and has seen two of his three scores come on deep passes. For me, he is the most volatile receiver in a volatile offense — I’ll pass unless I’m in the most desperate of situations.
That’s not a knock on Tillman as much as it is confidence in myself to put together a starting lineup that carries a stable enough floor where I don’t need to roll the dice on a profile like this in a tough spot in order to be competitive.
That said, regardless of if he plays this week or not, I’m 100% holding onto Tillman. If you thought the Browns had to put their foot on the gas to keep up with Bo Nix on Monday night, what happens with Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Tua Tagovailoa left on the schedule after this week?
Tillman isn’t the type of player I’m rushing back into lineups, but assuming health, he’s going to carry plenty of ceiling appeal during the most important stretch of the fantasy season.
Elijah Moore, WR
The Moore contingency is coming on strong as we approach the final stretch of the final season with DJ easily clearing 20 points in consecutive weeks and Elijah Moore fresh off of earning a season-high 14 targets. Cleveland’s underneath receiver has caught at least six balls in four of his past six games.
Pittsburgh ranks 24th in yards per catch after the reception this season to the receiver position (4.8), a flaw that I like Moore to pick at more than any of the other WRs on this roster. The range of outcomes is far more narrow than a player like Jerry Jeudy, but I was ultra-impressed with what he put on tape last week, and we know that Jameis Winston is going to give him a chance to make plays.
I’m not sweating the 3-21-0 stat line in the snow against these Steelers two weeks ago. If the Steelers elect to defend against the home-run play and make Winston beat them with 1,000 paper cuts, Moore stands to benefit in a big way.
I think you can Flex him this week in PPR leagues and have him ranked not too far from Chicago’s streaking Moore in my Week 14 WR rankings.
Jerry Jeudy, WR
You mean you didn’t have Jerry Jeudy penciled in for a career day facing a Denver defense with a Player of the Year candidate?
I know I didn’t. I bet under on Jeudy’s receiving-yardage total for the game — a ticket that was dead by halftime, and one that Jeudy cleared in a single quarter not once but twice on Monday night.
Jeudy’s heat chart looks like the ideal dating profile — the ability to impress in a variety of areas with no flaws.
Of course, it has to be too good to be true, right? That perfect person on your dating app usually comes with crazy parents or 17 cats or something like that, right?
Well, Jeudy has Jameis Winston. The tandem ran as hot as the sun last week (Jeudy accounted for 73% of Winston’s deep passing yards), but let’s not lose track of the fact that he, while performing at the peak of his powers in a revenge spot, ranked third on the Browns in targets.
This matchup has too many paths to disappointment for me to lock in Jeudy as a top-24 play. Yes, he was able to produce against Pittsburgh in the Week 12 win, but he was held without a target in two of those four quarters, and that’s a scary floor to consider.
For the season, the Steelers are the fourth-best third-down defense and rank third in deep-pass interception rate. Is the upside worth the risk?
Jeudy has five straight games with at least five catches and 70 receiving yards. That’s the second-longest such streak in the NFL this season (Justin Jefferson) and the longest such run in franchise history.
I’m not saying Jeudy falls off a cliff and Flexing him is fine, but I’m resisting the urge to chase the Week 13 performance and will be looking elsewhere in DFS. He’s going to project well, given that the main slate pricing comes out ahead of Monday Night Football.
David Njoku, TE
David Njoku was one of five Browns to see 4-6 targets in the Week 12 meeting with the Steelers, spread-out usage that seems likely to again be the case in this spot with Pittsburgh’s defense requiring offenses to be creative (unless you have Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on your roster, then you can do whatever you want).
If Njoku isn’t getting weighed down with elite usage, I worry about his upside. We got a glimpse of the floor that is present in an inconsistent offense facing off against an elite defense (Njoku turned those five targets into nine yards), a range of outcomes that isn’t very appealing.
The physical profile of Njoku gives him the potential to make any single target worth your loyalty, and that’s enough to start him in season-long formats, but I’m not tempted to look this way in the DFS streets.
Browns at Ravens Trends and Insights
Cleveland Browns
Team: The Browns have won two straight games and three of their past four against the Ravens (they were 3-10 in the previous 13 meetings).
QB: Dorian Thompson-Robinson has thrown 115 passes this season and has zero touchdowns to show for it (six interceptions). He is 0-of-9 with three interceptions when throwing 20+ yards downfield.
Offense: The Browns are averaging 27.2% fewer points per drive this season than they did a year ago.
Defense: Sunday was the fourth time this season in which the Browns allowed under 20 yards per drive – they’ve managed to lose all four of those games.
Fantasy: Jerry Jeudy joined Josh Gordon (2013) and Kellen Winslow (2007) as the only Browns to earn 18 targets in a game (he was also the third Brown to catch 12 passes in a game, interestingly enough, the first to do both).
Betting: Cleveland is just 4-12 ATS in their past 16 road divisional games.
Baltimore Ravens
Team: The 2007 Giants and the 2001 Patriots are the only teams since 2000 to win their conference despite losing the first two games of the season (the Ravens lost to the Chiefs and Raiders to open up the season). Both of those teams went on to win the Super Bowl.
QB: Lamar Jackson's average QB+ this season (82.9) is well above what he posted a season ago (77.1).
Offense: The Ravens have picked up over 43 yards per drive in three straight games (they had two such performances through the first 14 weeks of this season).
Defense: After allowing opponents to pick up 46.7% of their third downs through 10 weeks, Baltimore has held strong with a 29.1% conversion rate since.
Fantasy: Mark Andrews has scored on 16.4% of his targets this season, a massive serge from his rate over the two years prior (6.3%).
Betting: Wednesday was the first time the Ravens have covered a game that went under the total since their Week 4 win over the Bills.