The Seattle Seahawks will face the Arizona Cardinals in Week 14. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Seahawks skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 14 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Geno Smith, QB
Every year we hear about quarterbacks doing a lot with a little. Justin Herbert has had his moments of viability despite limitations around him, and Jared Goff has had some strong fantasy days despite capped opportunity counts.
Has anyone done less with more than Geno Smith?
He currently ranks second in the NFL in pass attempts and tied for 22nd in games with multiple touchdown passes. That almost feels like a made-up stat, but I promise you it’s not. Daniel Jones, Joe Flacco, and Andy Dalton are all quarterbacks with more multi-TD pass efforts this season — they’ve all been benched (or outright released).
At his disposal is a top-10 receiver duo in the league and an explosive backfield, but he just hasn’t made it work. Smith enters this week with four straight finishes outside of the top-20 fantasy signal callers; while I think he snaps that drought with only 26 teams in action this week, the Cardinals rank better than the league average in terms of the percentage of opponent possessions that end with a score.
Smith’s projection is always going to check in around 265 yards and one score, a production level that you can find elsewhere. I have him ranked behind the suddenly viable Will Levis this week, embracing some risk in favor of something of a ceiling.
Kenneth Walker III, RB
Week 17 Status: OUT
Kenneth Walker III hasn’t finished better than RB15 since Week 7, and his first meeting with these Cardinals was underwhelming when it comes to his rushing numbers (16 carries for 41 yards).
In that Week 12 game, Walker bailed out fantasy managers with 52 yards on six targets, a role that was stable earlier this year. However, since Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s breakout, those opportunities have been less consistent (in the two weeks sandwiching that Arizona game, Walker turned five targets into two receiving yards).
At the end of the day, Walker is the featured back of an offense I expect to stay on the field this week against the second-worst third-down defense in the league. That’s enough to feel fine about him as an RB2, but I had his ceiling case as a top-five producer at the position on a weekly basis earlier in this season — I no longer have optimism at that level.
Zach Charbonnet, RB
Week 17 Status: PLAYING
I found it interesting that the Seahawks gave Zach Charbonnet a goal-line carry in the fourth quarter to give them the lead over the Jets on Sunday. In all, it was his fifth straight game with no more than six touches, a role that keeps him well out of Flex discussions in all leagues.
Charbonnet was on the field for 43.9% of snaps in Week 13 and has multiple receptions in four of his past five games – I’m monitoring. Kenneth Walker has underwhelmed over the past 1.5 months (under 4.0 yards per carry in five straight games), and while I’m not suggesting that we see a changing of the guard, I’m not as confident in the hierarchy of this backfield as I was a few short weeks ago.
The Cardinals allow the seventh-most yards per carry after contact to running backs this season — if Charbonnet makes a move for the lead role, this might be the week. I’m not betting on that being the case, but I’m certainly keeping a close eye on this situation, both in leagues where I have Walker and Charbonnet.
DK Metcalf, WR
DK Metcalf was an afterthought in the first half last week (zero catches on two targets), but on a drive early in the third quarter, he had catches of 28 and 30 yards, not to mention a forced DPI and an end-zone target.
I’m not sure why the slow start, but it was clear that the messaging at halftime was to feature their walking mismatch, and I can’t say I disagree with that game plan. He struggled in the Week 12 meeting with the Cardinals (4-59-0), and while I think he’s better than that this time around, I do think there is something to Arizona selling out to slow Seattle’s WR1.
The counting numbers should be fine through sheer volume, but his red-zone target rate is down 10.7 percentage points from a season ago; that, in this matchup, has resulted in me ranking Jaxon Smith-Njigba as my favorite receiver in this offense.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR
It’s been tight for a few weeks, and I finally made the change this week — Jaxon Smith-Njigba is my highest-ranked Seahawk receiver for Week 14. When these teams squared off, JSN earned one-quarter of Geno Smith’s targets on his way to a 6-77-1 stat line, good for the third-best showing by a receiver against the Cardinals this season.
I see no reason to regress his production. Arizona allows the fifth-most yards per short pass this season, and four of the top six receiver games against them have come from a player with a sub-11-yard aDOT in that contest. Given how this team defends, I don’t think opportunity count is going to be an issue; with a 90.9% catch rate over the past three games, I trust the efficiency of the second-year receiver.
Make the most of your Smith-Njigba exposure this season — you’re not getting him at anywhere near the same price this summer.
Tyler Lockett, WR
Week 9 was the last time Tyler Lockett finished as a top-65 receiver. And although this matchup isn’t scary, it’s the same secondary that held the veteran receiver to just four fantasy points two weeks ago (10.7% target share).
Seattle’s offense (21st in points scored per drive) isn’t nearly consistent enough to sustain a running back and three receivers. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has separated himself from Lockett when it comes to the featured role in the short-to-intermediate pass game, rendering the latter unusable in all formats.
If you’re holding Lockett at this point in the season, you’re grasping at a name you recognize as opposed to reacting to the most current information that we have access to.
Seahawks at Bears Trends and Insight
Seattle Seahawks
Team: The Seahawks are 0-3 against the NFC North this season, allowing 27+ points in each of those losses (8-4 against everyone else with 27+ points allowed just three times).
QB: Geno Smith has been much more aggressive under pressure this season (8.1 aDOT) than last (6.4).
Offense: This Seattle offense was behind the eight-ball most of Week 16. Their average starting field position was their lowest of the year (their own 22.5-yard line).
Defense: The Seahawks allowed the Vikings to average 2.1 points per drive on Sunday, falling to 0-6 this season when they allow at least 1.9 points per drive.
Fantasy: All three of Kenneth Walker III’s career games with at least seven receptions have come this season (Weeks 5, 6, and 16). Fantasy managers can up his pass game projection in a significant way when you pencil in Seattle to lose – they are 1-9 when he sees at least five targets in a game.
Betting: Seattle has covered four straight road games, all coming by more than six points.
Chicago Bears
Team: The Bears have lost nine straight this season with a rookie QB. If they lose their final two games, that will run their total to 11 straight -- only twice in the 2000s has a team had a longer such streak in a single season (2017 Browns and 2001 Panthers)
QB: Caleb Williams has run for at least 27 yards in five of his past six games and has thrown for multiple scores in four of his past five (first 10 games: three multi-pass TD games)
Offense: The Bears averaged 39.4 yards of offense per drive on Sunday against the Lions, their second-highest rate of the season.
Defense: Chicago forced a punt on a season-low 10% of possessions last week against Detroit (three of their four lowest opponent punt rates have come since Week 11).
Fantasy: Williams has three games with 330+ passing yards and multiple passing scores – Andrew Luck is the only QB to have more such games as a rookie (four).
Betting: Overs are 8-4 in Chicago’s past 12 games played as an underdog on short rest