The Atlanta Falcons’ playoff chances took a significant hit in the last month with consecutive losses to the New Orleans Saints, Denver Broncos, and Los Angeles Chargers. Here are Atlanta’s playoff scenarios after a tough loss to the Vikings.
Can the Falcons Still Make the Playoffs?
After the loss, the Falcons have a 27.7% chance to get into the playoffs and a 23.6% chance to win the NFC South, according to the PFN Playoff Predictor.
Those numbers have come down significantly after today’s loss. If the Falcons get in, it will almost certainly be as a No. 4 seed (19.4%). They have just a 3.7% chance to qualify as a Wild Card.
Can the Falcons Still Win the NFC South?
Here’s what the NFC South race looks like:
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a 73.5% chance to win the NFC South.
- The Atlanta Falcons have a 23.6% chance to win the NFC South.
- The New Orleans Saints have a 2.8% chance to win the NFC South.
- The Carolina Panthers have a 0.1% chance to win the NFC South.
Yes, but they need to finish strong.
While the Falcons hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Buccaneers by virtue of the season sweep, the Bucs are both the better team (15th vs. 23rd according to PR+) and have an easier closing stretch (T.B. has the 32nd-hardest remaining schedule).
The Falcons have two games left against likely playoff teams (the Vikings in Week 14, and the Washington Commanders in Week 17).
The Buccaneers’ five remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of just .367.
So while the Falcons are the only team in the NFC South to control its own destiny, PFN analytics have found that the Buccaneers are more likely to win the division.
NFC Playoff Race | Week 18
1. Detroit Lions (14-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (14-2)
6. Washington Commanders (11-5)
7. Green Bay Packers (11-5)
In The Hunt
9. Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
8. Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
11. Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-11)
14. Chicago Bears (4-12)
15. Carolina Panthers (4-12)
16. New York Giants (3-13)
Falcons’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 15: at Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 16: vs. New York Giants
- Week 17: at Washington Commanders
- Week 18: vs. Carolina Panthers
Falcons Preview Ahead of Vikings Game
Justin Jefferson vs. Falcons Defense
The first and only time Justin Jefferson faced the Falcons, it was dicey for Atlanta.
We’re talking way back in 2020, when as a rookie Jefferson roasted the Falcons for 166 yards and a touchdown on nine catches. It was his third game of 100+ yards in a span of four weeks and a clear sign to the rest of the league that Jefferson was a big-time problem.
Four years later, he’s an even bigger one. Jefferson through 13 weeks leads the NFC in receiving yards (1,038), and that doesn’t include the 154 additional yards he’s drawn on eight defensive pass interference penalties.
He’s gone over 1,000 yards in each of his first five seasons with consistent excellence. His yards before catch (10.8) and yards after catch (4.5) this year are right at his career average.
Will Jefferson feast on Dirty Birds this week?
Not if the Falcons can recreate the game plan they used to limit CeeDee Lamb to just 47 yards on 12 targets in Week 9 — the eight-lowest yards-per-target average of his career (3.92). Atlanta’s DBs successfully kept everything in front of them that day. They limited Lamb to four yards before the catch and didn’t miss a tackle.
