The Dallas Cowboys have dealt with myriad injuries this season, none more critical than the hamstring issue that took down quarterback Dak Prescott in Week 9.
Mike McCarthy’s club has hung in since losing Prescott. Are the Cowboys still in the postseason conversation? Let’s examine Dallas’ playoff outlook with the help of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor.
Can the Cowboys Still Make the Playoffs?
After a brutal Monday Night Football loss to the Bengals, the Cowboys are 5-8 and now have just a 1.3% chance of making the playoffs.
Dallas now has a 0.0% chance for the first seed, a <0.1% chance for the second seed, a <0.1% chance for the third seed, a <0.1% chance for the fourth seed, a <0.1% chance for the fifth seed, a 0.2% chance for the sixth seed, and a 1% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Cowboys Still Win the NFC East?
The Cowboys have less than a <0.1% chance of winning the NFC East. The Philadelphia Eagles are the runaway favorites to secure the division crown (96.4%), while the Washington Commanders are still in the mix (3.6%).
NFC Playoff Race | Week 18
1. Detroit Lions (14-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (14-2)
6. Washington Commanders (11-5)
7. Green Bay Packers (11-5)
In The Hunt
9. Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
8. Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
11. Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-11)
14. Chicago Bears (4-12)
15. Carolina Panthers (4-12)
16. New York Giants (3-13)
Cowboys’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 15: at Carolina Panthers
- Week 16: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Week 17: at Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 18: vs. Washington Commanders
Cowboys Preview Before the Bengals Game
Bengals edge rusher Trey Hendrickson leads the NFL with 11.5 sacks and ranks second in pass-rush win rate (26%), but he can’t do it alone. No other Cincinnati defender has more than two sacks, while fellow defensive end Myles Murphy is the only other Bengals rusher with a 10+% pressure rate.
Bengals’ Defensive Pressure Rate:
- Hendrickson on the field: 33.8% (23rd)
- Hendrickson off the field: 22.3% (32nd)
On the plus side for Cincinnati, Dallas’ offensive line is banged up heading into MNF. Rookie left tackle Tyler Guyton has a high ankle sprain and seems unlikely to play. Future Hall of Fame right guard Zack Martin has missed two games with ankle and shoulder injuries and is out for the season after opting for surgery.
However, if Cowboys backup quarterback Cooper Rush does one thing well, it’s get rid of the ball. Rush’s 2.26-second time-to-throw average ranks second among qualified quarterbacks, trailing only the notoriously quick-firing Tua Tagovailoa. That helps explain why Rush has only been pressured on 24.9% of his dropbacks, fourth-best among QBs.
Because of Rush’s fast release, opposing defenses are blitzing Dallas’ QB2 on just 17.4% of his dropbacks, the second-lowest rate in the league behind — you guessed it — Tagovailoa. There’s no point in sending extra bodies after Rush if the ball will already be gone.
What about putting those extra defenders into coverage? The Bengals lead the NFL in drop-eight/rush-three rate (9.4%) this season, regularly deploying the defensive strategy that infamously helped them beat Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2021-22 AFC Championship Game.
By dropping eight defenders into coverage, the Bengals can invite Rush to check the ball down while hoping they can rally and tackle.
Rico Dowdle, Intriguing 2025 Free Agent?
Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle is one of six 2025 free agent RBs with at least 100 carries this season, joining Aaron Jones (Minnesota Vikings), Kareem Hunt (Kansas City Chiefs), Najee Harris (Pittsburgh Steelers), Javonte Williams (Denver Broncos), and J.K. Dobbins (Los Angeles Chargers).
Here’s where Dowdle ranks among that group in various RB metrics:
- Rushing success rate: 44.0% (best)
- Zero or negative-yard runs: 13.4% (best)
- Explosive rush rate: 7.5% (second)
- First downs per rush: 23.1% (second)
Dowdle is also 15th among running backs with 32 receptions. He’s earned PFF’s seventh-best pass-blocking grade among RBs with at least 40 PB snaps (and third-best among pending free agent backs, behind Jones and Dobbins).
Now that fellow running backs like the Carolina Panthers’ Chuba Hubbard and the Arizona Cardinals’ James Conner have been extended, Dowdle — who re-signed with Dallas for just $1.255 million this offseason — could be in demand in 2025.
