The Cincinnati Bengals had lost three straight games heading into Monday Night Football, decimating their chances of making the playoffs in one of the NFL‘s most challenging divisions. However, a big win against the Cowboys changed their fortunes slightly.
Do Joe Burrow and Co. still have a shot at the postseason? Let’s examine Cincinnati’s odds using Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor.
Can the Bengals Still Make the Playoffs?
With a 5-8 record, the Bengals have an uphill battle to climb in the AFC. That’s because they have the Colts and the Dolphins ahead of them in the 8th and 9th spots.
In the 6th and 7th spot, we have the Chargers and Broncos, respectively, but both their records are 8-5. That means they would have to lose at least their remaining games to avoid any kind of tiebreakers.
Meanwhile, the Colts and Dolphins losing at least one or two games is a realistic scenario, but the complication comes in when you factor in that the Colts play the Broncos in Week 15 and then the Chargers play the Broncos in Week 16.
Their remaining schedule includes the Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns, two teams with losing records. However, the big one might come in Week 18 when they play the AFC North rival Pittsburgh Steelers. Obviously, the Bengals need to continue to win, but that final week could be massive for their playoff hopes.
Looking at the numbers, the Bengals now have a 0.4% chance to make it in with the fifth seed, 1.8% with the sixth seed, and 4.3% as the seventh. So, it is not impossible. Highly unlikely, but not impossible.
Can the Bengals Still Win the AFC North?
The Bengals have a 0.0% chance of winning the AFC North. Only the Steelers (66.1%) and the Baltimore Ravens (33.6%) have a realistic shot at the division crown.
AFC Playoff Race | Week 17
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (12-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (10-5)
4. Houston Texans (9-6)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)
7. Denver Broncos (9-6)
In The Hunt
8. Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
9. Miami Dolphins (7-8)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
11. New York Jets (4-11)
12. Cleveland Browns (3-12)
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-12)
15. Las Vegas Raiders (3-12)
16. New England Patriots (3-12)
Bengals’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 15: at Tennessee Titans
- Week 16: vs. Cleveland Browns
- Week 17: vs. Denver Broncos
- Week 18: at Pittsburgh Steelers
Bengals Preview Ahead of the Game
Is the Bengals’ Defense Historically Bad?
Just how poor has the Bengals’ defense been in 2024?
Here’s one way to look at it: Quarterback Joe Burrow leads the NFL in passing yards (3,337) and touchdowns (30). Wideout Ja’Marr Chase has a realistic shot at the receiving Triple Crown, while Tee Higgins ranks top-six in receiving yards per game.
And yet, Cincinnati is 4-8 heading into its Monday night matchup against the Dallas Cowboys.
Here’s another way to think about the Bengals’ defensive struggles under coordinator Lou Anarumo this season.
Pro Football Network’s DEF+ metric has assigned a grade to every team defensive season dating back to 2019. The 2024 Bengals defense ranks 179th out of 192 defenses over the past 5+ years, having earned a D- (60.8) mark entering Week 14.
Cincinnati’s Pass-Rush Problem vs. Cowboys QB Cooper Rush
Bengals edge rusher Trey Hendrickson leads the NFL with 11.5 sacks and ranks second in pass-rush win rate (26%), but he can’t do it alone. No other Cincinnati defender has more than two sacks, while fellow defensive end Myles Murphy is the only other Bengals rusher with a 10+% pressure rate.
Bengals’ Defensive Pressure Rate:
- Hendrickson on the field: 33.8% (23rd)
- Hendrickson off the field: 22.3% (32nd)
On the plus side for Cincinnati, Dallas’ offensive line is banged up heading into MNF. Rookie left tackle Tyler Guyton has a high ankle sprain and seems unlikely to play. Future Hall of Fame right guard Zack Martin has missed two games with ankle and shoulder injuries and is out for the season after opting for surgery.
However, if Cowboys backup quarterback Cooper Rush does one thing well, it’s get rid of the ball. Rush’s 2.26-second time-to-throw average ranks second among qualified quarterbacks, trailing only the notoriously quick-firing Tua Tagovailoa. That helps explain why Rush has only been pressured on 24.9% of his dropbacks, fourth-best among QBs.
Because of Rush’s fast release, opposing defenses are blitzing Dallas’ QB2 on just 17.4% of his dropbacks, the second-lowest rate in the league behind — you guessed it — Tagovailoa. There’s no point in sending extra bodies after Rush if the ball will already be gone.
What about putting those extra defenders into coverage? The Bengals lead the NFL in drop-eight/rush-three rate (9.4%) this season, regularly deploying the defensive strategy that infamously helped them beat Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2021-22 AFC Championship Game.
By dropping eight defenders into coverage, the Bengals can invite Rush to check the ball down while hoping they can rally and tackle.