We are just about at the final quarter of the 2024 NFL season. For much of the year, the MVP race has been a two-man battle between Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Recently, though, Saquon Barkley has surged up the list of potential winners.
Could we see a non-quarterback win the award for the first time in over 10 years?
NFL MVP Race Rankings Through Week 13
Honorable mention: Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts; Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert; Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels
5) Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 13 QB+ grade: B (84.5)
- 2024 QB+ grade: B (84.5)
You can never fully count out Patrick Mahomes. The greatest quarterback in NFL history is leading the Kansas City Chiefs to the best start of his career in what is statistically his worst season.
Mahomes is completing 68.4% of his passes but has a career-low 4.4% touchdown rate and a career-worst 2.6% interception rate.
The reality is his numbers should have him nowhere close to the MVP conversation. The only reason Mahomes is here is because the Chiefs are 11-1, and the quarterback of the team with the best record is frequently in the race.
With that said, it’s hard to envision Mahomes winning MVP. He already has two, and his production lags far behind the guys ahead of him on this list, as well as a number of quarterbacks behind him.
4) Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
- Week 13 QB+ grade: B+ (87.9)
- 2024 QB+ grade: B (84.5)
Jared Goff is probably not catching Drew Brees’ 74.4% all-time record for completion percentage, but he is a threat to finish at over 70% (71.8% right now).
If the Detroit Lions had a worse running game and a worse defense, Goff definitely could be a serious contender. He’s thrown for 22 touchdowns and nine interceptions with a league-leading 8.8 yards per attempt.
The problem is volume. Goff is averaging just 28.3 pass attempts per game. For better or worse, an MVP-winning quarterback typically needs gaudy numbers. Unfortunately, the Lions are simply too good of a team to let Goff air it out enough to make a serious run at MVP.
3) Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
- Week 13 QB+ grade: C (76.2)
- 2024 QB+ grade: A+ (100)
Now we’re getting into the guys who have a real shot at winning it. Yet, at +800, Lamar Jackson’s MVP odds have cratered considerably (he was +300 a few weeks ago).
It’s pretty incredible that Jackson won MVP last season. He threw for 3,678 yards and 24 touchdowns against seven interceptions, adding 821 yards and another five scores on the ground.
Jackson’s on-field performance was amazing, and the Baltimore Ravens were the No. 1 seed in the AFC. But statistically, he was one of the weakest MVP winners of all time.
This year, through 12 games, Jackson has been the best quarterback in football. He’s thrown for 3,290 yards and 29 touchdowns against just three interceptions while adding 678 yards and three scores on the ground.
There are, however, two potential hiccups in Jackson’s quest for a second consecutive and third total MVP award.
First, the Ravens are not going to be the No. 1 seed, which is where the past seven MVP winners have all come from. With five losses, including a head-to-head loss to Kansas City, the Ravens are one Chiefs win away from being mathematically locked out from the top seed. Currently, they aren’t even leading their division.
Second, Jackson just won it last year. Fair or unfair, all major sports have shown a reluctance to give the award to the same guy over and over again. The inclination to do something different than the status quo is why one of the top two guys on this list is more likely to win it.
2) Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
This is where things could get very interesting. No one will ever be able to convince me a non-QB should win the MVP. At +350, Barkley is the second-favorite to be the first running back to win MVP since Adrian Peterson came nine yards shy of breaking the single-season rushing record back in 2012.
That year’s Vikings went 10-6 and were summarily dispatched in the first round of the playoffs. Since then, it’s been a quarterback every year (AP is the only non-QB to win since 2006).
For a running back to have any chance at even being in the conversation, he has to do what Peterson did — and Barkley is doing just that. He leads the NFL with 1,499 rushing yards, is averaging a career-best 6.1 yards per carry, and his 0.12 EPA per rush leads the league.
Barkley is averaging 124.9 rushing yards per game. In order to break Eric Dickerson’s record, he needs to average 121.4 per game over his final five contests (although he will have had an extra game to do it).
If Barkley does break the single-season rushing record and the Philadelphia Eagles end up as the No. 2 seed, that could be enough for the voters to be willing to give him the MVP.
1) Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
- Week 13 QB+ grade: B- (82.0)
- 2024 QB+ grade: B+ (89.7)
Ultimately, the MVP award is still likely to go to a quarterback. Josh Allen should have won it last year, but he didn’t because the Buffalo Bills were only 11-6 and needed to end the season on a five-game win streak to make the playoffs.
Statistically, Allen was the best quarterback in football, and it wasn’t close. He threw for 4,309 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions while running for 524 yards and a whopping 15 scores.
This season, Allen has a weaker offensive supporting cast. Yet, he’s playing even better.
Allen is protecting the football, throwing a mere five interceptions through 13 weeks. He’s averaging 29 fewer passing yards per game but is on pace for more passing touchdowns.
Most importantly, the Bills are 10-2 and in the driver’s seat for the AFC’s No. 2 seed. They’re also just one Chiefs slip-up away from the top seed, as they own the head-to-head tiebreaker.
At -210, Allen is quite the sizable betting favorite, considering how much football is left to be played. But it’s justified. I certainly would never lay -210 on an MVP future, but Allen is probably going to secure his first and very much-deserved MVP trophy.