Soppe’s Week 14 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help every one of you with your specific questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you every single week are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on Twitter, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece, is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Week 14 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers, QB | NYJ (at MIA)

If you’re not careful, you would have seen Aaron Rodgers having some fun early on in Week 13. He showed good mobility and even got out in space to provide a “block.”

Rodgers threw a pair of first-quarter touchdown passes, but the vibes didn’t last. When all was said and done, the future Hall of Famer finished with under 190 passing yards for the third straight game and averaged under five yards per pass for the third time this season.

There was a swing early last week where he missed an open Garrett Wilson in the end zone and, on the very next play, threw a pick-six. That’s a 6.36-fantasy-point turn of events. For a player who needs to be close to perfect to return value, swings like that are simply too much to overcome.

This matchup isn’t too scary, but what evidence do we have that this Jets offense can expose any defense? Rodgers completed just one of eight deep passes on Sunday. Without the elite efficiency that he’s had in years past, there just isn’t a responsible way to project him as a top-15 performer at the position, even in a week missing a handful of viable signal callers.

Aidan O’Connell, QB | LV (vs.TB)

Updated at 2:55 PM ET on Sunday, December 22
O'Connell is active for today's game.

Since the beginning of 2022, three times has a quarterback thrown for 300 yards, multiple touchdowns, and zero interceptions. The names of those signal-callers are exactly the ones you’d expect — Tom Brady (2022, Week 4), Josh Allen (2022, Week 6), and Aidan O’Connell (Black Friday).

Fun list? Yes, and I like sharing content like that, but by no means does it mean I’m going anywhere near the Raiders’ QB in this spot. In the surprising Week 13 performance, O’Connell was protected when blitzed and thrived as a result: 7 of 10 for 151 yards and a touchdown when K.C. brought the heat.

Not only do I not view that as sustainable, but this is a spot where the regression monster could take a pound of flesh, as the Bucs are a top-10 defense in creating havoc when blitzing.

O’Connell will continue to funnel his looks toward Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers in bulk (73.5% of his targets last week), but expecting anywhere near last week’s success is unwise, to say the least.

Baker Mayfield, QB | TB (vs. LV)

Updated at 6:50 PM ET on Sunday, December 22
Mayfield is active for tonight's game.

Baker Mayfield is a gamer and someone I’d want in my locker room if I was building an NFL franchise, but not someone I’m keeping around for fantasy purposes.

Both things can be true.

He picked up 10 critical yards with his legs to help force overtime against the Panthers, a winning play. In our world, however, he has just one passing touchdown over his past two games (63 pass attempts) and it required a special play from Mike Evans.

Every week, there are some plays that Mayfield makes that are emblematic of a fantasy asset, but those moments haven’t been sustained lately. That is why he sits just outside of my top 10 at the position, even in a plus-matchup (though it should be noted that this defense held Patrick Mahomes to a season-low 56.5% completion rate on Black Friday).

Brandon Allen, QB | SF (vs. CHI)

Brock Purdy returned on Sunday night to face a strong Bills defense in near-impossible weather conditions. It wasn’t an ideal return spot, but he seemed to make it through the contest without a setback, and that puts him in line to start this week.

The 49ers are now two full games behind the Seahawks for the division, giving them little room for error — Allen isn’t going to see the field in these times of desperation unless the train really comes off the track.

Brock Purdy, QB | SF (vs. CHI)

Brock Purdy has thrown multiple TD passes in just one of his past five games, and with the running game collapsing around him, this isn’t the offensive environment that we drafted him for. His mobility (5.1 yards per carry with four rushing scores) is an asset and keeps him on my radar, but I want to see what this offense looks like sans Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason before betting heavily on it.

I’m willing to be wrong in waiting on Purdy this week. If he shows up in a big way, I’ll gladly move him up and start him with confidence against the Rams next Thursday. Even with a desire to wait and see, Purdy is on the QB1 fringe due to bye weeks and general ineptitude at the position.

Bryce Young, QB | CAR (at PHI)

Bryce Young is playing as well as he has during his NFL career.

I have no interest in playing Young against an Eagles defense that is rounding into playoff form a month early.

Both things can be, and are, true. By his low standards, Young looks good (three straight games with zero interceptions and 17+ rushing yards). Even with him developing, let’s not get out over our skis — we are praising a player for a three-game stretch in which he has completed just 58.5% of his passes.

Fantasy isn’t a game of learning curves. Young playing over his baseline doesn’t mean he’s fantasy viable, and I expect that to be apparent on Sunday against the best yards-per-pass defense in the NFL. We can take a step back from things and evaluate this offense’s trajectory as a whole this offseason — I imagine I’ll be in at cost on a few of the pieces.

For 2024, you still need not worry.

Caleb Williams, QB | CHI (at SF)

Caleb Williams has 250+ passing yards in consecutive games for the first time in his young career, benefiting greatly from the volume that has occurred with Chicago playing catch-up (86 pass attempts).

There continue to be breadcrumbs laid about a strong 2025 season, and the Black Friday firing of Matt Eberflus certainly doesn’t back me off of my loving Williams as a future asset:

During Matt Eberflus' tenure in Chicago, the wide receivers, as a collective, underachieved fantasy football expectations by 8.7%. pic.twitter.com/jvwPMxUQD2

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 29, 2024

The rookie hasn’t thrown a pick since Week 6. While that was fueled by a conservative game plan before Thanksgiving with an average depth of throw no higher than seven yards in any of his three games prior, Williams wasn’t shy about challenging a strong Lions secondary vertically (13.4 aDOT).

If you like the 49ers to take control of this game early, you’re going to want to bump Williams up your DFS rankings. He’s thrown for 376 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions in second halves over the past two games.

With only three games in the late slate this weekend, not to mention Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, and Joe Burrow all being off the main slate, there’s an argument to be made in Williams being used as a unique late hammer.

Outside of that situation, I’m not going in this direction in standard-sized leagues.

Cooper Rush, QB | DAL (vs. CIN)

One fantasy storyline (in DFS and otherwise) this week could be a simple one. Does putrid quarterback play beat vulnerable defenses? If you believe so, you get access to Will Levis against the Jaguars and Cooper Rush hosting the Bengals.

Volume has been on the side of Dallas’ backup due to game script (123 pass attempts over his past three games), something that most will project to again be the case.

I’d rather go with Levis.

Rush was able to average only 5.4 yards per attempt on Thanksgiving against the Giants, and if efficiency isn’t going to be something we can bank on, there’s not much hope. We haven’t seen nearly enough athleticism to think that we can get bailed out that way (nine carries for one yard over the past three weeks), and considering that Rush was able to get CeeDee Lamb only a pair of catches (39 yards), I’m skeptical that we have “bank on an elite teammate to drag him across the fantasy finish line” potential.

You can do better.

Derek Carr, QB | NO (at NYG)

If you’re looking for a cheap DFS play or lack confidence in your starter, can I sell you some Derek Carr stock for one week?

Taysom Hill is no longer a threat to soak up all of the touchdown equity when this offense gets inside the red zone, a value that can’t be overlooked (six rushing scores this season). For better or worse, Carr will be trusted with finishing drives, and I like the sounds of that against a Giants defense that ranks 20th in yards allowed per drive (31.5).

But I’ve buried the lead.

For whatever reason, Carr has thrived recently when blitzed. The elevation of Marquez Valdes-Scantling certainly plays into that, as he is a tough single-man cover to shut down and defenses have to surrender just about everything underneath. Over his past three games, Carr has completed 15 of his 19 passes for 240 yards and a pair of scores against blitzes, and he just so happens to draw the defense that is bringing the heat more than anyone since Week 8.

If all else fails, we are always one Carr moon ball away from turning an average day into a usable one, and that bailout option holds even more value this week than most with the Giants allowing the highest passer rating on deep passes.

I’m not ranking Carr as a starter in most formats, but he’s in a tier that stretches from QB20 up to QB13 — if you’re getting creative, this is the way I’d do it.

Drew Lock, QB | NYG (vs. NO)

On Thanksgiving, Drew Lock completed 21 of 32 passes for 178 yards and an interception. Nothing he did suggests that there is much fantasy upside to chase here, and that is why he ranks among the five least valuable QBs this week.

As a community, we entered last week asking Lock to do one thing, and he did it. Against the Cowboys, he funneled 40.6% of his targets in Malik Nabers’ direction. He has as many catches (eight) as any other WR on this team had receiving yards, and that makes Lock a fantasy hero, even if it’s not in terms of his own value.

Gardner Minshew II, QB | LV (vs.TB)

Gardner Minshew II suffered a broken collarbone in Week 12 against the Broncos, and the team wasted no time in ruling him out for the season. His season ends with more interceptions (10) than touchdown passes (nine) despite showing some growth in the completion percentage department (66.3%).

The 28-year-old Minshew has one more season on his deal with the Raiders before becoming an unrestricted free agent.

Geno Smith, QB | SEA (at ARI)

Every year we hear about quarterbacks doing a lot with a little. Justin Herbert has had his moments of viability despite limitations around him, and Jared Goff has had some strong fantasy days despite capped opportunity counts.

Has anyone done less with more than Geno Smith?

He currently ranks second in the NFL in pass attempts and tied for 22nd in games with multiple touchdown passes. That almost feels like a made-up stat, but I promise you it’s not. Daniel Jones, Joe Flacco, and Andy Dalton are all quarterbacks with more multi-TD pass efforts this season — they’ve all been benched (or outright released).

At his disposal is a top-10 receiver duo in the league and an explosive backfield, but he just hasn’t made it work. Smith enters this week with four straight finishes outside of the top-20 fantasy signal callers; while I think he snaps that drought with only 26 teams in action this week, the Cardinals rank better than the league average in terms of the percentage of opponent possessions that end with a score.

Smith’s projection is always going to check in around 265 yards and one score, a production level that you can find elsewhere. I have him ranked behind the suddenly viable Will Levis this week, embracing some risk in favor of something of a ceiling.

Jalen Hurts, QB | PHI (vs. CAR)

It’s been over a month since the last time Jalen Hurts threw for 225 yards, and it simply hasn’t mattered. With 12 rushing scores this season, the floor is nothing short of elite in this profile. I expect that to again make him a Tier 1 producer at the position in this advantageous matchup.

Hurts has dialed back his passing aggression a touch (his average depth of throw is down 7% from 2023), and it’s resulted in a significant efficiency spike.

Yards per pass:

• 2023: 7.2
• 2024: 8.2

Passing touchdown rate:

• 2023: 4.3%
• 2024: 4.6%

Interception rate:

• 2023: 2.8%
• 2024: 1.6%

You’re starting Hurts weekly and loving life as a result. The hope is that he can have his full complement of weapons come fantasy Super Bowl time (Weeks 16-17: Commanders and Cowboys), and if that proves to be the case, he could carry your team to the finish line.

Jameis Winston, QB | CLE (at PIT)

Jameis Winston had a pair of 44-yard completions in the first quarter (Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore) on Monday night, and that was just the beginning. Against a stingy Broncos defense, the wildest ride in fantasy sports threw the ball 58 times for 497 yards with four touchdowns, three sacks, two pick-sixes, and a partridge in a pear tree.

We got the good, the bad, and the ugly all wrapped into a 60-minute package, and it was as entertaining as you’d assume it would be.

If you extend Winston’s five starts across a full season …

• 741 passes (109 more than the next highest pace)
• 5,712 passing yards (current NFL record: 5,477)
• 78 deep completions (the highest total in the 2000s)
• 34 pass TDs (only three players are tracking to do that this year)
• 24 INTs (highest average in the league)

As you’d expect, when you add a dash of pressure to this profile, you get a dish that, somehow, increases even further in variance. Winston has completed a career-low 43.8% of his passes when blitzed this season, but, of course, since 2022, he’s averaging 15 yards per pressured completion (second-highest to Jordan Love amongst QBs who have been in the league for all three of those seasons).

So yeah, expect more shenanigans this week. All of the pressure stats from the Steelers are trending up, which is what has me fading Cleveland’s random number generator in Week 14.

Pittsburgh’s pressure rate when blitzing, 2024:

• Weeks 1-7: 40.4% (ranking 20th)
• Weeks 8-13: 48.4% (ranking seventh)

The macro trends show that this team is getting better at creating chaos when they want to and the micro trends reflect a similar pattern.

I’m expecting another afternoon of fun, I’m just not sure the fruits are quite as sweet as they were last week.

Jared Goff, QB | DET (vs. GB)

Jared Goff has multiple touchdown passes in three of his last four games and hasn’t thrown an interception since the five-pick disaster against the Texans. Quality of attempts hasn’t been an issue this season for Goff, it’s been a quantity issue.

With 30+ attempts in each of his past two games, Goff is trending closer to a fantasy asset. He’s been willing to take what the defenses give him all season long; with the Packers allowing the ninth-highest short completion percentage (75.1%), I’m comfortable starting Goff in most formats due to an elevated matchup floor.

It only required 22 pass attempts from Goff to win the first meeting, though that was an outdoor game. On the fast track, I’m happy to take my chances with him as a top-10 signal caller.

Joe Burrow, QB | CIN (at DAL)

Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 22
Burrow is active for today's game.

Joe Burrow is averaging 27 fantasy points per game in prime time this season, passing for 1,316 yards, 10 touchdowns, and zero interceptions in those four games.

Burrow has thrown at least three touchdown passes in four straight games, averaging 336 yards through the air in the process. There’s no reason to think that anything on the offensive end in Cincinnati changes, and that is why I have Burrow ranked as a top-five QB for Monday night football.

The matchup doesn’t scare me, and there are no health concerns to consider. You’re overthinking things if you’re worried about this game getting out of hand — if that happens, Burrow is probably the reason why — but also, this is a four-win team that is struggling to get consecutive stops, let alone look good on both sides of the ball for 60 minutes.

You’re playing Burrow and loving having the late hammer to close Week 14.

Jordan Love, QB | GB (at DET)

Is it possible that Jordan Love is developing into a quarterback who is increasingly valuable to the Packers and decreasing value in our game?

After throwing an interception in eight straight contests, Love has now gone three straight games (51 attempts) without a miscue like that. Green Bay has strung three wins together as a result, but his streak of games with under 21 fantasy points has been extended to six.

On Thanksgiving, we saw Love post a 7.2 aDOT, his second-lowest mark of the season — another number that can limit fantasy appeal while upping the winning equity of the franchise that pays him.

These Lions were just lit up for 30 minutes by Caleb Williams (second half: 15 completions for 222 yards and three scores), but that’s proven to be the exception against them, not the norm.

Love’s passing production, Week 9:

• 7.0 yards per attempt (his second-worst of the season)
• 11.9 yards per completion (his third-worst of the season)
• Zero TD passes (only such game this season, minimum 25 attempts)

The quality of quarterbacks on bye this week inflates Love’s ranking and allows him to check in as a low-end QB1, but I’d suggest approaching with caution.

Josh Allen, QB | BUF (at LAR)

Josh Allen is the heavy MVP favorite for a reason, and I can’t see the fourth-worst YPA pass defense slowing him down. That doesn’t mean he repeats his historic pass-rush-receiving TD trifecta from Sunday night, but he’s a great bet to deliver his sixth top-five finish of the week.

Allen’s reckless aggression is gone, and it looks good on him. On non-pressured pass attempts this season, his average depth of throw sits at just six yards (career average: 7.4), and that has supported an upward-ticking passer rating in such spots (2022: 96.6; 2023: 101.9; and 2024: 108.4).

Buffalo is chasing the top seed in the AFC, and as long as that dream is alive, you’re playing Allen with all the confidence in the world.

Justin Herbert, QB | LAC (at KC)

After a nice run of production, Justin Herbert has failed to throw a touchdown pass in consecutive games despite inviting matchups (vs. BAL, at ATL). I believe in his talent, but with a limited supporting cast and Ladd McConkey “working through a couple of things,” per Jim Harbaugh on Monday when detailing his rookie’s nagging knee injury, I’m ranking him as a top-12 quarterback in this spot isn’t for me.

The Chiefs pressured Herbert on 13 of his 27 passes against them in Week 4, a rate that I think could be sustained with them not required to respect a running game led by Gus Edwards these days. McConkey has more receiving yards than any two of his teammates combined this season, so if he is functioning at anything less than full strength, asking Herbert to clear 17 fantasy points is awfully optimistic.

I have him ranked at the very end of my starter tier for Week 13, more the result of six teams being on a bye than any level of optimism. I prefer Sam Darnold and Russell Wilson to Herbert this week with Will Levis and Geno Smith being the two names directly behind him for me.

Kirk Cousins, QB | ATL (at MIN)

The revenge narrative is fun, but that’s about it. Kirk Cousins is riding the struggle bus these days at such a level that I had “how many bad decisions can one man make” jotted down as my in-game notes for the Falcons in Week 13.

Since 2011, only twice has a QB completed 18 passes with at least one interception and zero touchdown passes in three straight games: Case Keenum (2018) and Kirk Cousins (2024). In those games, Cousins’ 104 attempts have resulted in zero scores and six interceptions.

We see quarterbacks struggle all the time, but this is why we prioritize athletic QBs. If Jalen Hurts was sailing passes, there’s a decent chance that his fantasy box score wouldn’t suffer in a major way. The same train of thought applies to Josh Allen. Even players like Justin Herbert, Brock Purdy, and Baker Mayfield have shown the propensity to add value with their legs and thus erase any concerns that come through the air.

That’s not an option for Cousins (20 carries for zero yards this season), and that’s why I can justify starting him in anything but the deepest of leagues. He has one finish better than QB15 since Week 5, and with the Vikings allowing the fourth-fewest red-zone drives per game, this is a thin profile, to say the least.

Kyler Murray, QB | ARI (v. SEA)

Kyler Murray came out with a very distinct plan last week, and I think I liked it. On Arizona’s first drive, he completed all five of his passes (four different pass catchers). The willingness to spread the ball around was great to see, though I will admit that the dialing back of aggression to do so was a red flag.

Against the Vikings, it took Murray 45 passes to total 260 passing yards and just one touchdown. The focus on quick decision-making did help him in the run game (48 rush yards after totaling just 36 in November), and that’s the path to making this strategy work if it’s here to stay.

Murray threw for 285 yards in the first game against Seattle, and that’s nice, but the fact that he was bottled up on the ground (nine rushing yards) is concerning. The Seahawks own the seventh-lowest opponent aDOT, something that I believe will support a reasonable floor for Murray.

Only time will tell if the upside is enough to swing matchups (one top-20 finish since Week 8), but I’m OK with a high-floor game for an athlete like those who have access to a ceiling, something a player like Kirk Cousins does not.

Mac Jones, QB | JAX (at TEN)

If you’re considering playing Mac Jones, it’s just a bet against a Titans defense that was taking on water last week against the Commanders.

• Washington Drive No. 1: Three players, 59 yards, TD
• Washington Drive No. 2: 11 plays, 80 yards, TD
• Washington Drive No. 3: Three plays, 24 yards, TD
• Washington Drive No. 4: Nine plays, 34 yards, TD

Jones had a 22-yard touchdown to Parker Washington last week as part of an impressive performance, all things considered (20-of-32 for 235 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions). He was essentially executing a game plan made for Trevor Lawrence, something that won’t be the case this week

The Titans rank 28th in pressure rate this season, and that should mean Jones is comfortable for the majority of the day. If that’s the case, maybe he connects on one of the bombs to Brian Thomas Jr. he narrowly missed on over the weekend. There’s a path to Jones flirting with top-15 value, but I’m not betting on it unless I’m out of options (give me Will Levis as the streamer delight of Week 14).

Matthew Stafford, QB | LAR (vs. BUF)

Matthew Stafford has eight touchdown passes against zero interceptions over the past three weeks, a level of production that has him trending in the direction of a viable asset in our world.

That said, the 36-year-old draws a tough matchup against the fourth-best YPA pass defense in the league and a Josh Allen-led offense that is more than capable of limiting the possession count for opponents.

Oh, yeah, and then there’s the health thing. Stafford suffered a lateral ankle sprain last week and, as is par for the course for Stafford, it won’t cost him any time. There are enough moving pieces to look elsewhere for your QB production. The Bills encourage their opponents to beat them on the ground and with passing paper cuts, neither of which is a way for Stafford to approach 20 fantasy points.

Patrick Mahomes, QB | KC (vs. LAC)

Of Patrick Mahomes’ 100 wins as a starter, nine have come when scoring fewer than 20 points. Three of those wins have come this season, meaning six of his first 90 wins came in such a spot.

That’s just a fancy way of saying that, like Justin Herbert, Jared Goff, and a few others — their real-life team doesn’t require fantasy stardom to put ticks in the win column. That doesn’t mean he isn’t capable of putting on a show, of course, but it helps explain the conservative game plans and thus the underwhelming fantasy totals.

Mahomes hasn’t had a 40-yard completion since Week 5, and I’d expect him to again play things close to the vest against the NFL’s fourth-best defense by EPA. The problem in this specific spot is that those short passes aren’t going to do much damage — the Chargers are the best YAC defense in the league, allowing 10% fewer YAC than any other defense in the league.

Mahomes is my QB10 this week, and I might be too high.

Russell Wilson, QB | PIT (vs. CLE)

Russell Wilson threw a pick-six on his third pass last week and was essentially perfect after that.

Against the Bengals, the veteran completed 76.3% of his passes for — checks notes — 414 yards, three scores, and that one interception. As explosive as Cincinnati is, Wilson supported five players in the first half of Week 13 who had more receiving yards than any Bengal.

With his ability to spread the ball around while mixing in occasional deep balls to George Pickens to keep defenses honest, he’s been able to blend extreme aggression within a conservative game plan, and it’s created an offense that now has loads of upside.

In a snowstorm, Wilson completed 75% of his passes (9.6 yards per attempt) against the Browns in Week 12. Cleveland is on a short week after putting up very little resistance in Denver, a form that leaves me no choice but to rank Wilson as a top-10 QB.

Cleveland allows more yards per completion than anyone in the league, and that is why I’m playing Wilson over Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, and plenty of others in Week 14.

Sam Darnold, QB | MIN (vs. ATL)

Sam Darnold is the Wan’Dale Robinson of quarterbacks. He always seems to be on the fringe of being productive, never posting a big number but rarely falling completely flat.

Darnold has six top-15 finishes over his past seven games, but only two of those weeks have seen him check in better than QB9. He’s doing enough to get the Vikings wins, and that is why he was brought in.

This team doesn’t ask Darnold to put up big numbers, so why would we expect anything different? The Falcons own the second-lowest opponent aDOT this season, something that has me thinking we see something similar to last week (21-of-31 for 235 yards and two scores against the Cardinals).

That stat line is viable, but it’s a game of inches. He benefited from two touchdown tosses from five yards or closer; if one or both of those scores come on the ground, his fantasy standing drops in a meaningful way. Jared Goff and Brock Purdy have similar profiles — I have both of them ranked just ahead of Darnold when it comes to the back end of my QB1 tier.

Tommy DeVito, QB | NYG (vs. NO)

Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM ET
DeVito is active as the backup to Drew Lock

A forearm injury sidelined Tommy DeVito on Thanksgiving, and his status is up in the air for this weekend. Hopefully, it doesn’t matter in the slightest for you. If we are talking about a Superflex situation, I prefer Drew Lock start to DeVito, but neither is a favorite to finish this week as a top-20 signal caller.

Malik Nabers was more critical of his role with DeVito under center than Lock, making that another reason that fantasy nation would prefer Lock continue to call the shots for this disappointing unit.

Trevor Lawrence, QB | JAX (at TEN)

Trevor Lawrence (concussion) seems to have passed the basic physical tests following a cheap shot that resulted in him being peeled off the field last week, a hit that potentially ended his season.

It’s been a brutal year for Lawrence (he returned last week from a shoulder injury that previously cost him time), though fantasy managers have long since moved on from relying on Jacksonville’s high-pedigree QB.

Will there be any post-hype sleeper appeal in August? I’m not ruling it out given the talent on this roster, but you can safely move on from Lawrence in all formats with his status updated and the Jacksonville season a lost one.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB | MIA (vs. NYJ)

It might be too little, too late for the Dolphins, but fantasy managers will certainly take the trajectory of Tua Tagovailoa.

• Week 11 vs. Raiders: 288 yards, three TDs, and zero INTs
• Week 12 vs. Patriots: 317 yards, four TDs, and zero INTs
• Week 13 at Packers: 365 yards, two TDs, and zero INTs

I’d argue that Miami should just bank on Tagovailoa from the jump. For the season, he’s completing 76.3% of first-down passes, a rate that sits at 84.8% over the past two weeks (28 of 33).

With numbers like that, I think we can count on the 40-ish attempts that we’ve seen from him lately, especially against an opponent whom Tagovailoa was awfully efficient against a season ago when the Jets’ unit was more feared (two games: 77.8% completion percentage and 8.6 yards per attempt).

You can nitpick Tagovailoa if you’d like, and all of it would be fair. He ran for 13 yards in his return to action and has picked up six yards on the ground since (five games). He was fortunate on Thanksgiving to throw for multiple scores as it took a garbage Jonnu Smith drop that turned into a 12-yard Tyreek Hill touchdown. Those are all facts — facts that really don’t scare me in this spot and him back in the sunshine.

There aren’t many pocket passers I’d rather have than Tagovailoa, especially with his plethora of weapons at his disposal and his willingness to take what the defense gives him.

Will Levis, QB | TEN (vs. JAX)

When the schedule came out and we saw the late bye weeks, it was only natural to wonder about QB streaming options with Lamar Jackson and C.J. Stroud both on bye. It’s entirely possible that I would have given you 10 names as viable single-week options ahead of Will Levis, but here were are.

Levis has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of his past four games and is landing haymaker punches on a regular basis. The sustainability of things is a fair concern, but you only need the good times to last for another 60 minutes, and I think that’s more than possible against a Jaguars defense that ranks dead last in yards per pass attempt (6.3% worse than any other defense).

Jacksonville also owns the second-highest opponent passing touchdown rate, giving Levis every chance to extend his recent strong play. My concern is simple: we are relying on efficiency from a QB that has a career completion percentage of 61.2% and a touchdown-to-interception rate of 1.5.

Just once this season has Levis completed 30 passes in a game, and if this game remains tight, the run game figures to be featured in a significant way. I have him ranked as my QB14 this week, easily his highest grade for me this season, and ahead of Geno Smith and Matthew Stafford, to name a few.

Week 14 Fantasy Football Running Backs

Aaron Jones, RB | MIN (vs. ATL)

Aaron Jones has put the ball on the ground in three straight games (four fumbles in all, two lost) and doesn’t have a 15-yard carry in five of his past six games. Despite Week 13’s win over the Cardinals being a one-score game for all but roughly 3.5 minutes, the Vikings opted to put their fate in the hands of Sam Darnold (31 pass attempts) instead of their running backs (11 rush attempts), something that could be mirrored this week.

Through 13 weeks, the Falcons own the second-lowest opponent RB rushing touchdown rate, a strength that makes starting Jones a bit of an uphill battle, given that his ypc after contact is pacing for his lowest since 2018 and his PPR points per touch for a career-low (0.8).

I’m pessimistic about Jones’ outlook, but with the lead role and a level of versatility (3+ targets in four of his past five games), there’s enough of a floor here to plug him in as a low-end RB2 in a week with relatively few options due to injuries and bye weeks.

You’re playing him, but I wouldn’t count on an overly impactful afternoon.

Alexander Mattison, RB | LV (vs.TB)

Updated at 2:55 PM ET on Sunday, December 22
Mattison is active for today's game.

An ankle injury sidelined Alexander Mattison last week, and given Ameer Abdullah’s success in the passing game, I don’t think there’s a path to him getting even remotely close to my starting tier of Flex options this week against a stingy Buccaneers defense.

Or … really against any defense.

Mattison is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry this season and hasn’t had a 15-yard run since September. A plodding back like this needs to carry significant scoring equity to have our attention, and that’s not the case as a part of the 26th-ranked scoring offense.

Alvin Kamara, RB | NO (at NYG)

Not a single one of Alvin Kamara’s 206 carries this season has gained 25 yards, and he hasn’t scored since mid-October. Yet, the volume and versatility are nothing short of elite, which has made this run of floor outcomes digestible.

Kamara enters this week with four straight 20-touch games and has eight games this season with at least six targets — the same number as DK Metcalf, Tyreek Hill, and Cooper Kupp. Few players can overcome ordinary efficiency at this level, so while Kamara might not be the most exciting player out there, you’re rarely losing a week because you trusted him as your RB2.

The Giants are the best matchup he can face in terms of yards per carry allowed to running backs (only New Orleans’ defense is worse this season), and three of the four instances in which an RB has scored 19 PPR points against New York have come in the past three games (Chuba Hubbard, Bucky Irving, and Rico Dowdle).

With the Commanders, Packers, and Raiders on tap after this, Kamara could bookend this season with spike stretches, something his fantasy managers would embrace with open arms. I’ve been lower than the industry on Kamara for the majority of this season, but even I have him labeled as an RB1 the rest of the way.

Ameer Abdullah, RB | LV (vs.TB)

Only time will tell if reinforcements are on the way when it comes to Vegas’ backfield, but should it matter? I was impressed with the Raiders’ rushing success in Kansas City on Friday (25 attempts for 116 yards, 4.6 yards per carry) — I don’t think that’s a hot take.

That said, with their top two backs out, they still opted for a committee structure, giving Sincere McCormick 12 carries (two targets) and Ameer Abdullah 10 carries (two targets). With this season lost, why wouldn’t the Raiders continue to see what they have from McCormick, a second-year back out of UTSA who had five career carries before last week?

Abdullah remains my highest-ranked RB in Las Vegas’ backfield, and I think his versatility gives him some ceiling potential should the Raiders fall behind. But if Alexander Mattison and/or Zamir White are active, we are splitting a very small pie in a few directions.

I don’t mind rostering all involved parties, but I don’t envision a situation in which we have great clarity when it comes to touch distribution this weekend. That has me ranking all of them below my Flex tier, even with six byes to navigate.

Abdullah would shift up to the very low end of the playable range in 12-team formats if we get word that both Mattison and White will again be shelved.

Bijan Robinson, RB | ATL (at MIN)

Bijan Robinson opened last week with a 15-yard run on Atlanta’s first snap and, by the end of two drives, he already had 10 touches and a score on the stat sheet. He finished with a season-high 32 touches against a strong Chargers defense, recording a 10+ yard rush and catch for the fourth time in his past five games.

It’s happening.

The usage and the production. The Falcons are leaning into their game-changing talent, and Robinson has rewarded them with six top-10 finishes over his past seven games. Imagine if the passing game demands respect. Kirk Cousins has five interceptions and zero touchdown passes over Atlanta’s past two games, a pair of games in which the star running back has averaged under one yard per carry before contact in both of those contests.

There are few players I fear more in space than Robinson and Minnesota’s aggressive style of defense leaves them open to some spots where they will need to get him on the ground in space.

Good luck with that.

I’m fine with labeling Robinson as a DFS building block, especially if we see Saquon Barkley (vs. CAR) and De’Von Achane (vs. NYJ) chew up ownership among the expensive backs.

Blake Corum, RB | LAR (vs. BUF)

The Rams had three snaps in the first quarter last week and were a bit out of sorts before finding their rhythm. It was a weird start to a game that eventually gave this team the result they needed, and it all started with Blake Corum getting Los Angeles’ first five carries.

Was this a matchup thing? Discipline?

We haven’t gotten much in the way of clarity and, to be honest, I really don’t care. Kyren Williams out-carried the rookie 15-3 after the odd start to the festivities, and that is the type of role I’m projecting forward. You better believe I’m concerned more today than I was this time last week as a Williams manager. But this isn’t a backfield that can support two backs, and we have three months of evidence that Corum is to be viewed as a handcuff, not a Robin to Williams’ Batman.

The Bills want to dare you to beat them with your running game, and if Corum is a big part of that again, we can reevaluate next week. For now, I’m opting to ignore the early Week 13 usage and have Corum outside of the Flex conversation.

Braelon Allen, RB | NYJ (at MIA)

Braelon Allen hasn’t reached 35 scrimmage yards in a game since September and has only scored once since punching in a pair of touchdowns against the Titans back in Week 2. His short- and long-term outlooks appear to be identical at this point — as a Breece Hall handcuff.

And guess what? That role has value at the perfect time, as he projects as a RB2 under the assumption that Hall (knee, no practice participation this week) sits on Sunday. He faces the same limitations that Hall did situationally, but he walks into 15+ touches with fresh legs and that makes him a worthwhile plug-and-play this week and, potentially, for the rest of the fantasy season if Gang Green opts to shut down Hall for the remainder of this lost year

Breece Hall, RB | NYJ (at MIA)

There’s really no way around it — this hasn’t been the type of season you signed up for this summer when you spent a first-round pick on Breece Hall. He put the ball on the ground twice last week against the Seahawks (lost one) and, for the first time in over 14 months, went through an entire game without a reception.

Looking back, all could have been forgiven if he was given a carry inside the five-yard line in the first quarter, but no, that usage was obviously reserved for Isaiah Davis and the seventh snap of his career. Davis cashes in the opportunity, and Hall came on to convert the two-pointer, a sequence that was pretty indicative of the season for Hall’s managers.

So close — and yet so far.

Josh Jacobs was able to produce against these Dolphins on Thursday night (the first RB to reach 20 PPR points against them since September), but Miami’s defensive profile remains strong. Through 13 weeks, the ‘Fins cough up the sixth-fewest red-zone drives per game (2.8) and are the stingiest defense in the league when it comes to limiting running back carries after contact.

When healthy, you’re playing Hall; you have no choice. He remains just as talented as the back you drafted months ago, but with the combination of this underwhelming offensive environment and a harder-than-average matchup, Hall was sitting outside of my top-10 prior to him being slapped with the “doubtful” tag on Friday (knee).

I want to say you’ll have him back next week, but with this a lost season and New York looking ahead, there’s no reason to assume they are aggressive with their star RB’s recovery.

Bucky Irving, RB | TB (vs. LV)

Updated at 6:50 PM ET on Sunday, December 22
Irving is active for tonight's game.

There is nothing flash-in-the-pan-ish about what Bucky Irving is doing. Amid a breakout, Irving is still only playing roughly half of the snaps, and it simply doesn’t matter. Over his past three games, the rookie is averaging 24.1 PPR PPG, producing 45.6% over expectations, and looking every bit the part of those impressive numbers.

In those games, Irving is averaging five yards per carry after first contact, giving this offense a component that they’ve been lacking during the Rachaad White era. The Raiders allow the second most red-zone trips per game (3.9) this season, giving me confidence that we are looking at a low-end RB1 this week … and potentially for the remainder of the season.

Flex PPR leaders, Weeks 12-13

• Saquon Barkley: 65.9 PPR points
• Irving: 54.7 PPR points
• DJ Moore: 50.6 PPR points
• Josh Jacobs: 50.3 PPR points
• Terry McLaurin: 48.5 PPR points

Through October, Irving had one game with more than 10 rush attempts. If you stayed loyal during the low-usage start to open the season, you deserve to be paid the way this is lining up — go get a title!

Cam Akers, RB | MIN (vs. ATL)

Cam Akers remains the definitive handcuff to Aaron Jones and nothing more. He’ll slide into the back end of my RB2 rankings should Jones end up missing time for any reason, but he’ll remain comfortably outside of my top 30 any week that’s not the case, and that’s where we stand right now.

Chase Brown, RB | CIN (at DAL)

Forget the player. If you were to create a situation for a fantasy running back, how different would it look from what Chase Brown currently has in front of him?

• A porous defense that gives the offense motivation to stay on the field
• A potent passing game that makes loading the box nearly impossible
• No challengers for work in his backfield and a reasonably stationary QB

That’s about as good as it gets, and that’s how we get a drive like Cincinnati’s second one last week against the Steelers.

• Brown off right guard for 13 yards
• Brown off right guard for 41 yards
• Brown up the middle for one yard and a TD

He’s finished each of his past four games as an RB1, and it’s hard to see that changing significantly this week against the worst red-zone defense in all the land (76.9% touchdown rate). For good measure, the Cowboys also have the third-worst overall rush defense by EPA and allow rushing scores to RBs at the highest rate.

It’s the perfect spot for the perfect role. Brown finds himself in some lofty company well inside of my top 10 at the position this week — you’re playing him and loving it.

Christian McCaffrey, RB | SF (vs. CHI)

Christian McCaffrey suffered a PCL injury in the second quarter on Sunday night and will miss at least the next six weeks, meaning his 2024 fantasy season is over before it ever really got started.

We have nine months to debate about how much this injury hurts his 2025 value — he’ll be an interesting case given the wide range of outcomes. It’s safe to say that he won’t be labeled the consensus 1.01 in redraft leagues the way he was this summer as he prepares for his age-29 season coming off of his fourth season in which he missed the majority of his games.

It’ll hurt your soul, but you can safely drop CMC in redraft leagues. Keeper managers need to track his recovery process; early reports are that he should be fine heading into the offseason, though you can never take anything for granted, especially at the running back position for a player with over 2,000 touches on his NFL résumé.

Chuba Hubbard, RB | CAR (at PHI)

Chuba Hubbard finally fell flat. It finally happened. He was on the field plenty (at least a 78% snap share in four straight games), but his 12 touches carried very little value (5.9 expected PPR points). For just the third time this season, Hubbard didn’t see a target, and his single red-zone touch tanked his potential (16 red-zone touches over his three games prior).

He finished a brutal day with a crippling fumble in overtime while in field goal range. I’m willing to overlook this dud, but I’m not sure the trains get back on the tracks against a peaking Eagles defense that just forced Derrick Henry into his second-lowest boom/bust rate of the season.

For the season, Philadelphia surrenders RB rushing scores at the third-lowest rate. With the second-best third-down unit in the league, are we sure that Carolina holds the ball for more than 25 minutes in this one? Jonathan Brooks (six carries for 18 yards) did nothing on Sunday to make Hubbard’s managers nervous.

I think you’ll be OK during the fantasy playoffs, but asking him to produce top-15 numbers against a defense that has yet to allow 18 fantasy points to a running back this season is a lot.

D’Andre Swift, RB | CHI (at SF)

While the volume on the ground has been underwhelming of late for D’Andre Swift (consecutive weeks of a decline in carry count and under 15 in three straight), the combination of involvement in the passing game along with the spike plays has proven to be enough to keep in fantasy lineups.

Swift has earned nine targets in those three games and has a 29+ yard gain in that run of three straight against divisional opponents.

There’s only so much upside that comes with being tethered to this inconsistent offense, and I don’t expect that to change this weekend. However, with a bell-cow role between the 20s and a versatile skill set, Swift is a weekly starter for you, even if the odds of him taking over your matchup are low.

David Montgomery, RB | DET (vs. GB)

A shoulder injury slowed David Montgomery during an abbreviated work week, but you wouldn’t know it based on his usage against the Bears on Thanksgiving. He notched his first 20-carry effort since September and, again, caught all three of his targets, something he has done in four of five games.

The average touch count is lower than you’d normally want from your RB2, and the explosive plays aren’t a part of this profile (he hasn’t had a 15-yard run since Week 6), but as long as this offense is averaging north of four red-zone trips per game and six yards play, his role as the drive finisher makes him a locked-in fantasy asset that you can bank on.

Montgomery turned 19 touches into 96 yards in the first meeting with the Packers. Asking for double-digit PPR points again on Thursday is plenty fair.

Devin Singletary, RB | NYG (vs. NO)

Devin Singletary had a garbage-time rushing touchdown in Week 12 against the Buccaneers, and that’s his only contribution to our world since September. The backup RB doesn’t have a 10-touch game since Week 4 as he has settled well behind Tyrone Tracy Jr. in this backfield; without a touch gaining more than 15 yards in over two months, there’s no path to upside in this profile.

Singletary is the handcuff to Tracy, but my optimal roster construction doesn’t involve a backup from a bottom-five offense with nothing in the way of stability. I’d prefer a dart throw receiver (Parker Washington, Michael Wilson, etc.) or take a flier on a backfield with more support (Isaac Guerendo, Kimani Vidal, Trey Benson, etc.).

De’Von Achane, RB | MIA (vs. NYJ)

De’Von Achane couldn’t find any running room on Thanksgiving night against the Packers in a one-sided loss (seven carries for 14 yards with a season-high 57.1% of his attempts failing to gain yardage), but that doesn’t prevent elite fantasy assets from paying the bills. That is exactly what the Dolphins have in their backfield.

The second-year star hauled in eight of his season-high nine targets for 56 yards and his fifth touchdown reception in six games since Tua Tagovailoa returned. He’s caught 28 of 30 targets over his past five contests, and with 13 red-zone touches over his past three games, this profile is about as bulletproof as it gets.

We are talking about a player that will go in the first half of first rounds for 2025 and one that looks poised to give you all the production you need to make a deep postseason run.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB | DAL (vs. CIN)

Ezekiel Elliott’s name holds value, but his role and form simply do not. Rico Dowdle has been labeled as the bell cow in Dallas, a role that he’s not in any danger of losing.

If Zeke was getting every non-Dowdle carry, we might be able to squint and justify rostering the veteran, but that’s not even close to the case — he got one of the 10 rush attempts that didn’t go to the starter (Hunter Luepke had three).

You’re not optimizing your roster if Elliott is still kicking around the back end of it.

Gus Edwards, RB | LAC (at KC)

Sans J.K. Dobbins (knee, IR), Gus Edwards got the first Charger carry on Sunday in Atlanta. Hassan Haskins was given the next one, and that told me all I needed to know about Jim Harbaugh’s plan — read and react.

That’s certainly not optimal for our purposes. It helped add some clarity when Haskins put the ball on the turf, but I’m not at all confident that this running game can support a single player, let alone a committee situation.

Chargers RB snap shares, Week 13:

• Edwards: 52.2% (4.3 PPR points)
• Scott Matlock: 32.6% (1.2 PPR points)
• Kimani Vidal: 26.1% (2 PPR points)
• Hassan Haskins: 15.2% (-2 PPR points)

I was out on Dobbins as the head of this snake, and now I’m done with this backfield altogether. Edwards and Vidal deserve to be rostered due to their proximity to a role in an offense that I grade as above average the rest of the way, but without clarity, there’s no path to feeling good about this situation.

I’m aware that the Chiefs gave up 116 yards on 25 carries to the Raiders on Black Friday, a running attack led by the much-feared duo of Sincere McCormick and Ameer Abdullah. Sixty iffy minutes aren’t enough to change my opinion — Kansas City has the third-best defensive success rate against the run and has allowed running backs to pick up a league-low 3.3 yards per carry.

I have Edwards ranked ahead of Vidal this week, but not by much and not in a spot where I’m Flexing him with confidence.

Isiah Pacheco, RB | KC (vs. LAC)

Isiah Pacheco (fractured fibula) saw his first action since Week 2 and was eased into things as expected.

Chiefs RB snap shares, Week 13:

• Kareem Hunt: 40.3% (second half: 34.4%)
• Pacheco: 32.8% (second half: 40.6%)
• Samaje Perine: 26.9% (second half: 25%)
• Carson Steele: 4.5% (second half: 6.3%)

Fantasy managers obviously love to see their star back on the field. We even got a chunk play from him as he ripped off a 34-yard run that seemed to remind the internet of just how fun this back is to watch carry the rock.

While Week 13 was a step in the right direction, there are rust and workload concerns that are preventing me from ranking him as a must-start player this week. With six teams on a bye, he’s viable, but if your team is built in such a way that you aren’t in bad shape this week, I could see a world in which you’re taking the Kansas City approach and being patient.

Against the Raiders, his other seven touches picked up just 15 yards, and for the afternoon, he averaged 1.86 yards per carry after contact (at least 3.0 yards per carry after contact in each of his first two seasons).

In the first meeting with the Chargers this season, Kansas City running backs failed to record a rush gaining more than 10 yards, and in one game a season ago, Pacheco managed just 32 yards on 13 attempts in this spot (he did catch a touchdown pass as part of a Patrick Mahomes explosion). He’s my top-ranked Chief running back this week and moving forward, but I’m in no rush to jam him into lineups this weekend.

Isaac Guerendo, RB | SF (vs. CHI)

The hot waiver add of the week could be a league winner if the 49ers elect to commit to him. Isaac Guerendo scored from 15 yards out last week and now assumes an elite role with the two backs ahead of him now on injured reserve.

Why can’t he be Jordan Mason? Mason was a top-12 running back three times in September and, before his injury, was one of two healthy backs (minimum 100 rush attempts) picking up 10+ yards on 15% of his carries this season (other: Jahmyr Gibbs). He’s a good player, but that production was certainly impacted by an advantageous situation, a situation that is now Guerendo’s.

The Bears allow the sixth-most red-zone drives per game (3.7) and the fourth-most yards per carry to opposing running backs. I don’t want to get too aggressive with my projection because we don’t have a sample of what this offense will look like, but 15 touches seem like a floor, and that’s plenty in a Kyle Shanahan offense.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | DET (vs. GB)

Jahmyr Gibbs lost his first fumble of the season and set season-lows in both carries (nine) and touches (11) on Thanksgiving against the Bears. But because he’s Jahmyr Gibbs, he still cleared 100 total yards and didn’t ruin your holiday as much as that profile would suggest.

Gibbs’ efficiency is nothing short of amazing and splash plays have become the expectation, not the exception. He’s averaging 6.0 yards per carry over his past three games (246 yards on 41 attempts) and has a 15+ yard run in 11 straight games — the only player to have a streak longer than that before the age of 25 was someone named Adrian Peterson, as he did so bridging the 2008 and 2009 seasons).

Factoring into that streak was a 15-yard score in Lambeau back in Week 9. While the Packers run defense has looked good in consecutive weeks (Christian McCaffrey and De’Von Achane totaled just 45 rushing yards on 18 carries against them), I’m attributing much of that success to a positive game script that I find unlikely to be in effect on Thursday night.

Kick your feet up on Thursday night and love having Gibbs on your roster as opposed to having to sweat opposing him.

James Conner, RB | ARI (v. SEA)

The Seahawks, for the season, give up the fifth-most yards per carry to opposing running backs (4.9), but they’ve looked better of late. Two weeks ago, they held James Conner to eight yards on seven carries, and over the weekend, Breece Hall scored just six fantasy points (17.8% below his usage-based expectations).

No matter what you think about this Arizona offense, Conner’s role is simply too strong to ignore. He has at least 17 carries in four of his past six games and at least three grabs in four straight.

The fact that he doesn’t have a rush gaining more than 22 yards this entire season is annoying, but it’s not overly prohibitive given the sheer number of opportunities he gets on a weekly basis.

James Cook, RB | BUF (at LAR)

James Cook went dashing through the snow on Sunday night for a 65-yard touchdown (the longest play of his career) against the 49ers on his way to his fourth RB1 finish over his past five games. Josh Allen is playing like an MVP, and Ray Davis has looked good, yet nothing is standing in the way of Cook producing elite numbers.

Teams are loading up to stop the run against Buffalo, and it doesn’t really matter. Cook has run into a loaded box 49.7% of the time this season (2023: 24.9%); despite the chaos in front of him, his yards per carry after contact this season are up 15.9% from a season ago.

All signs are pointing in the right direction, and the fifth-worst rush defense by EPA is unlikely to slow that momentum. Cook has 11 rushing scores on 151 carries this season — not too shabby for a player who had four on 326 attempts through the first two years of his career.

Jaylen Warren, RB | PIT (vs. CLE)

That’s now three straight games with four targets for Jaylen Warren, a total he didn’t reach a single time previously. He was on the field for just 37.9% of Pittsburgh’s offensive snaps on Sunday, something that may have been impacted by the game script. When the Browns beat the Steelers in Week 12, Warren posted his highest snap share of the season (56.7%) and got 14 touches as a result.

Last week served as a reminder as to why I’m not comfortable in Flexing Warren. Najee Harris was banged up early and was on the sideline for a bit, something that you’d expect to open the door for Warren.

Not so much.

His 29-yard grab late in the second quarter was his only opportunity (rush attempts plus targets) in the first half. Mike Tomlin is the master of maximizing his teams, and he clearly hasn’t deemed getting Warren consistent looks as a priority.

We know that Warren will be on the field, and given the type of game both of these teams just played, this game has shootout potential. That profile makes him a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency Flex option, though you have to be aware that a single-digit PPR performance is more likely than not.

Jaylen Wright, RB | MIA (vs. NYJ)

Jaylen Wright continues to hold more upside, in my opinion, than Raheem Mostert, should De’Von Achane suffer an injury. However, his one offensive snap on Thanksgiving is proof positive that the team has no desire of getting him work this season.

With Miami clinging to its playoff hopes, I don’t see it all of a sudden changing course. With six teams on a bye this week, it’s possible that you’re in a roster crunch; if that’s the case, you can cut ties with the explosive rookie.

Jerome Ford, CLE (at PIT)

Jerome Ford reached 10 touches on Monday night, something he hadn’t done in nearly two months. The Browns seemed to take an awfully cautious approach with Nick Chubb last week (they haven’t mentioned a health-based reason for that approach), and that allowed Ford to elevate his role from backup to part of a committee.

Wonderful.

This backfield is struggling to give us one weekly viable option, and if this divvying of responsibilities is here to stay, there won’t be a single Browns RB worthy of Flex consideration. With this being a lost season, I think it’s logical to manage Chubb’s reps, especially if this team is going to fully embrace the Jameis Winston experience. You’re holding Ford right now and hoping that he posts another 65.5% snap share rate (36.4% in the snow against these Steelers in Week 12).

If he can flirt with two-thirds of the snaps in an offense that is, for better or worse, going to push the envelope, there’s a world in which you’re considering him as a Flex play with your league championship on the line.

• Week 16 at Cincinnati Bengals
• Week 17 vs. Miami Dolphins

J.K. Dobbins, RB | LAC (at KC)

We knew the risk was there in a profile like this, but it’s still a shame to see J.K. Dobbins (knee) being placed on injured reserve last Saturday. This designation requires him to miss at least four games, making a Week 17 return (at Patriots) the next time we have a chance to see Dobbins, the fantasy Super Bowl in most leagues.

I’m moving on. The Chargers want to make noise in the postseason and they need to win games down the stretch, but I can’t imagine they rush this injury-prone back at such a level that he is fantasy viable with a title on the line in a game that will carry some weather risk.

The 900 yards and eight touchdowns you’ve squeezed out of Dobbins this week have been helpful — you can cut ties now if you don’t have the luxury of an available IR slot. This is a player who has appeared in 35 games during five NFL seasons — asking him to produce top-24 numbers IF he returns when first eligible is far too optimistic for my liking.

Jonathon Brooks, RB | CAR (at PHI)

Jonathon Brooks played 8.6% of the snaps in his professional debut (Chuba Hubbard: 87.9%), picking up seven yards on his two carries against the Chiefs. I expect the team to slowly ramp up his usage to give him a taste of the NFL game, but I’d be surprised if he got much past 10 touches in any game this season. That means he’s unlikely to grace my top 30 at any point.

If he’s going to impact fantasy leagues this season, it’s because he cashes in a red-zone carry and the manager with Chuba Hubbard falls out of the playoffs as a result of the missed opportunity. Brooks is an interesting name to keep track of for next season — I’m holding for this week to see what the team does with his usage and cutting ties if we don’t see some serious growth.

Jordan Mason, RB | SF (vs. CHI)

Jordan Mason was placed on injured reserve Monday afternoon, a move that corresponded with Christian McCaffrey’s designation. With the 49ers’ season very much on the brink, it’s more likely than not that his season is over — at the very least, his fantasy season is over, as he is now required to miss the final four weeks of the fantasy season.

The 2024 season has to be labeled as a success for the 25-year-old undrafted back out of Georgia Tech (5.2 yards per carry), as he showed himself capable of leading a backfield. Time will tell what the hierarchy of this backfield looks like moving forward, but for the remainder of 2024, this is the Isaac Guerendo show.

Josh Jacobs, RB | GB (at DET)

That’s now three straight games with at least 22 touches and a score for Josh Jacobs as a part of an offense that is seemingly hitting its stride at the right time.

We have plenty of evidence that he can pound between the tackles, so seeing him produce out in space is great for his ceiling projection the rest of the way. On Thanksgiving, he took a dump-off pass and turned it into a season-high 49-yard gain thanks to a single hard cut that left the linebacker stumbling.

We’ve now gone three straight games since the last 20-yard run from Jacobs, but that impact hasn’t been felt by fantasy managers due to 132 receiving yards over that stretch.

He piled up 108 yards on 15 touches against this strong Lions defense back in Week 9 and I’m projecting Green Bay to want to function through him this week — going blow-for-blow with this juggernaut isn’t the best way to down Detroit.

Kareem Hunt, RB | KC (vs. LAC)

Kareem Hunt was on the field for 40.3% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps on Friday against the Raiders, his lowest rate since joining the team and a clear sign that the plan is to work Isiah Pacheco back into a bell-cow role sooner rather than later.

Even in a limited role, the veteran back saw four targets, leaving me with some hope that he can be Jaylen Warren to Pacheco’s Najee Harris over the final month of the season. At the very least, we know that Hunt is the handcuff to have; that knowledge makes him worthy of a roster spot as the Chiefs look to lockdown the AFC’s top seed over the next month.

I’m not comfortable playing Hunt this week and think that, after a mini-bye, we will get a pretty good glimpse of how Andy Reid wants this backfield to look for the remainder of the season on Sunday.

Kenneth Walker III, RB | SEA (at ARI)

Updated at 2:35 PM ET on Sunday, December 22
Walker is active for today's game.

Kenneth Walker III hasn’t finished better than RB15 since Week 7, and his first meeting with these Cardinals was underwhelming when it comes to his rushing numbers (16 carries for 41 yards).

In that Week 12 game, Walker bailed out fantasy managers with 52 yards on six targets, a role that was stable earlier this year. However, since Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s breakout, those opportunities have been less consistent (in the two weeks sandwiching that Arizona game, Walker turned five targets into two receiving yards).

At the end of the day, Walker is the featured back of an offense I expect to stay on the field this week against the second-worst third-down defense in the league. That’s enough to feel fine about him as an RB2, but I had his ceiling case as a top-five producer at the position on a weekly basis earlier in this season — I no longer have optimism at that level.

Khalil Herbert, RB | CIN (at DAL)

Khalil Herbert, for me, isn’t in the same tier as a Ray Davis or Tyler Allgeier handcuff, and thus he can be cut loose as the value of every single roster spot increases down the stretch.

Chase Brown is being used as a true bell cow, and while Herbert is technically the next man up, his playing just 3.9% of Cincinnati’s offensive snaps since being acquired indicates that even should an injury occur, this team isn’t ready to unleash the former Bear.

Instead of hanging onto Herbert, I’d rather roster a boom/bust receiver that has access to a weekly ceiling and can thus help me out if I’m in desperation mode.

Kimani Vidal, RB | LAC (at KC)

Kimani Vidal is a great oyster stash with J.K. Dobbins on the shelf and Gus Edwards yet to impress. The rookie was on the field for only 26.1% of snaps last week, and while that number by itself isn’t impressive, the fact that he was given the first carry of the second half should have your interest.

I find it unlikely that you ever feel great about Flexing Vidal, but the willingness to call his number out of the locker room tells me that Jim Harbaugh is trending toward a hot-hand backfield. Of course, we lack evidence that Vidal can outearn Edwards over the course of a game, but we know what Edwards does/doesn’t bring to the table, and I’m confident that his limitations at least give the rook a chance to produce.

I’m rostering with patience. There aren’t many backfields as up in the air as this one, and that makes all pieces involved reasonable stashes.

Kyren Williams, RB | LAR (vs. BUF)

Kyren Williams ran for a season-high 104 yards against the Saints on Sunday and ran for his 10th score, but the passing game involvement has evaporated (one target over the past three weeks) and the splash plays are non-existent (zero gains of over 30 yards on his 248 touches this season).

I’m willing to overlook the early usage of Blake Corum last week (by “overlook,” I mean “not adjust my Week 14 rankings” — I’m very much going to be tracking usage patterns this weekend) and am cautiously hopeful that Williams can showcase improved efficiency in this matchup against a defense that allows the fifth-most yards per carry before contact to running backs.

Buffalo is willing to give up production on the ground, as they will bet on their efficiency over yours so long as they can limit the number of splash plays. We know we are going to get 15-20 touches from Williams — the difference between him finishing as the RB7 and RB17 is in him finding the end zone against the fifth-best defense in terms of rushing TD rate allowed to opposing running backs.

It’s Cooper Kupp or nothing for me when it comes to the Rams for the Week 14 DFS main slate.

MarShawn Lloyd, RB | GB (at DET)

Appendicitis landed MarShawn Lloyd on the reserve/NFI list in the middle of last week, resulting in another four-week absence at the minimum and almost assuredly ending his rookie campaign.

There’s no need to continue holding onto Lloyd in redraft leagues. Josh Jacobs is under contract for another three seasons, making redraft value a long shot next season for Lloyd in anything but a handcuff capacity.

Najee Harris, RB | PIT (vs. CLE)

Early last week in Cincinnati, it looked as if we were approaching a huge day for Najee Harris, and that was glorious. On Pittsburgh’s first drive, their starting running back was trusted with six touches (50% target share) and turned them into 51 yards.

He got dinged up early and spent some time sidelined, but at the end of the day, 22 touches for 129 yards and a score is plenty profitable. Of course, you don’t get to face the Bengals every week, but the state of Ohio struggles to stop the run these days (you can decide if that is this Penn State alum taking a shot at the Buckeyes coughing up 173 yards on the ground to Michigan over the weekend).

This season, the Browns allow rushing touchdowns to running backs at the sixth-highest rate in the league and the most yards per short completion. Harris is a firm RB2 for me this weekend and should help you earn an important win — enjoy it, it could be a bumpy ride to the finish line.

• Week 15 at Philadelphia Eagles
• Week 16 at Baltimore Ravens
• Week 17 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Nick Chubb, RB | CLE (at PIT)

Nick Chubb was able to get home for you last week if you elected to go that direction on Monday night courtesy of a five-yard touchdown catch in the fourth quarter, but I’d be lying if I said I was the least bit encouraged by the performance.

The Browns opted to go with Jerome Ford for extended periods of time against the Broncos, and I can’t say that I blame them. Not only did Ford run reasonably well (nine carries for 41 yards with a 21-yard reception on his lone target), but Chubb failed to get past the line of scrimmage on four of his nine rush attempts. That raised his season rate to 28%, a number that is far too high in any situation, let alone within a profile that doesn’t include much per-carry upside (10+ yards on just four of his 82 carries).

Now, there are reasons for that. The soon-to-be 29-year-old is coming off of a devastating knee injury and has had a brutal runout in terms of schedule. Logic would state that he gets better with time — I’m willing to buy that pitch. But the schedule doesn’t lighten this week (he ran 20 times for 59 yards with a long gain of seven yards in this matchup two weeks ago), and for the second time in three weeks, he’s being asked to play on short rest.

The Steelers allow rushing touchdowns to running backs at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, and that’s enough for Chubb to rank over Ford for me this week, but that doesn’t land him in my must-start tier. I have him sitting in the same tier as Kareem Hunt, Jaylen Warren, and both Jacksonville running backs — all of whom come with limitations and all of whom I’d play a receiver with upside over (Jerry Jeudy, Brian Thomas Jr., etc.).

Rachaad White, RB | TB (vs. LV)

Rachaad White sprung free for a 38-yard rush late in overtime last week to get the Bucs in position to kick the game-winning field goal, doubling his rushing output for the day in the process.

I can’t remember the last time a running back has ranked as an RB1 for an extended period of time that I’m actively fading at an important time at the level I am White. Since Week 7, he’s been the RB12 (16.1 PPG), but this is an awfully iffy profile as long as Bucky Irving’s hip injury doesn’t prove prohibitive.

Pass catching is White’s calling card, and yet he has just two targets over the past two games. He snapped a five-game scoring streak in Week 13, a run that came on unsustainable efficiency (one score every 10.3 touches; career average: 36.5). By every measure, Irving is the more productive option in this backfield and has the potential to relegate White to a specialist role that offers spotty production at best.

With six teams on a bye, I can only tank him so far down the rankings, but I want it noted that he’s producing over his head; if you buy in, you’re at risk of the rug being pulled out from under you (starting next week in Los Angeles against the Chargers).

Raheem Mostert, RB | MIA (vs. NYJ)

Raheem Mostert has reached a 47% snap share just once this season (Week 13: 36.9%) and simply seems like an afterthought in this offense. Of course, he did enough on Thanksgiving to ruin my SGP that featured him rushing for under 9.5 yards (five carries for 19 yards), but this isn’t a profile that means anything for fantasy.

If you want exposure to a secondary back in Miami, it’s Jaylen Wright — and it’s not close. This is a one-back system that requires no weekly decision making — you’re riding De’Von Achane as far as you can and neglecting the other two.

Ray Davis, RB | BUF (at LAR)

Ray Davis scored on the second drive in a blizzard against the 49ers on Sunday night, more the result of limited defensive footing than anything. He did set up the score with a 13-yard run, and he continues to run hard, though I’m not sure it matters.

There were four Bills with a carry on that touchdown drive as they were acclimating to the conditions and imposing their will.

First two Bills drives, Week 13:

• James Cook: four carries for three yards
• Davis: three carries for 19 yards and a TD
• Ty Johnson: two carries for 12 yards
• Josh Allen: two carries for 10 yards

For Davis’ path to hold stand-alone value, he needs to do more than impress. He would need some help from James Cook (it didn’t happen last week: 14 carries for 107 yards and a touchdown) and hold off Josh Allen’s desire to finish drives himself.

Davis is a strong handcuff and has been impressive, but I still can’t get there when it comes to ranking him as a viable Flex option. He ranks at the top of my backup RBs, both in terms of value to be gained by way of injury and Week 14 projections, but that isn’t enough to get him inside of my top 30 at the position (for reference, I prefer the Jayeln Warren and Kareem Hunts of the world over him in you’re in a bind).

Rico Dowdle, RB | DAL (vs. CIN)

Rico Dowdle has been given the keys to this backfield, and it looks good on him. He’s averaged north of 3.0 yards per carry after first contact in five straight games. He seems to be a good player and will be an interesting follow this summer as he becomes an unrestricted free agent entering his age-27 season.

For the short term, I think you can feel good about him as a RB2. Dallas’ best defense against Cincinnati will be a patient offense, something that they proved capable of doing in a Dowdle-centric way on Thanksgiving against the Giants (22 carries for 112 yards and a score, he was the only Cowboy with even five rushing yards). He’s run at least 20 routes in two of three games and, for the season, has produced 10.1% over expectation when being handed the ball at least 15 times.

There’s not a lot to like in Dallas these days, but at least its running game has found a consistent option.

Roschon Johnson, RB | CHI (at SF)

Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM ET
Johnson is active

The Bears didn’t get stopped at the one-yard, and that meant that Roschon Johnson was rendered useless.

OK, so that’s only partly true. He left early on Thursday with a concussion and that puts his status in question for this week, though the mini-bye gives him a better shot at clearing protocol.

It doesn’t matter.

The six rushing scores are nice from a profile perspective, but you’re not playing a 4-6 touch player in a below-average offense if you can at all avoid it. Personally, I’m targeting players with more upside to round out my roster, no matter the format.

Saquon Barkley, RB | PHI (vs. CAR)

With just 44 rushing yards through three quarters last week against the Ravens, Saquon Barkley was at risk of underachieving for just the third time this season.

What a crazy thought.

He ran for 63 yards over the final 15 minutes, helping the Eagles earn a massive win in the process. The Panthers allow the fifth-most yards per carry this season (third-most before contact), making them vulnerable to a highlight-reel splash play from the Offensive Player of the Year front-runner.

It’ll be interesting to see how Barkley is treated in drafts this summer — he’s the best option at the position this week and for the remainder of the 2024 fantasy season.

Tank Bigsby, RB | JAX (at TEN)

Tank Bigsby trailed Travis Etienne Jr. in snap share last week, but it was pretty clearly a split situation that has the potential to flip on a dime.

Jaguars RBs production rates, Week 13:

• Etienne: 19.4% under expectation and 1.7 yards per carry after contact
• Bigsby: 5.9% under expectation and 3.6 yards per carry after contact

Bigsby has been the more efficient player for the majority of this season, and that gives me hope that he will be the one who gets his name called in scoring position against the fourth-worst red-zone defense in the league.

Like Etienne, Bigsby is a viable Flex play that carries less risk than normal given the projected game script.

Tony Pollard, RB | TEN (vs. JAX)

Tony Pollard lost a fumble last week, his first of the season, but he remained involved after that even with Tyjae Spears back in the mix.

It hasn’t been pretty, but the Titans’ lead back has multiple catches in every game this season and is averaging 27.3 touches per game in victories this season. Whether you like Tennessee or Jacksonville in this game, it should be competitive, and that puts Pollard in a position to rack up the type of volume that gives him top-10 potential against a bottom-five defense in terms of red-zone drives and yards per short pass attempt conceded.

I want exposure to any back who projects for 15+ touches against the Jaguars, and that is the case here. Pollard is my RB16 for Week 14.

Travis Etienne Jr., RB | JAX (at TEN)

There are some split backfields, and then there is what the Jaguars are rolling out there. Travis Etienne Jr. got the first carry for this offense last week against the Texans, and that’s good to see, but his role was far from elite.

Jaguars RBs opportunity and production, Week 13:

• Etienne: 52.2% snap share; 5+ yards on 46.2% of rushes
• Tank Bigsby: 46.3% snap share; 5+ yards on 28.6% of rushes

He showed some juice that has been lacking, but don’t let my number voodoo fool you — the rate of five-yard gains is nice to see though not a single one of his carries gained more than nine yards. The Titans struggled last week against Washington, but this is still the third-best defense at limiting RB yardage after contact this season.

Based on how last week started, I think the Jags have Etienne just over Bigsby in their internal depth chart; that’s how I have it ranked, though both share a tier in the middle of my Flex rankings.

Trey Benson, RB | ARI (vs. SEA)

On one hand, Trey Benson was trusted with a third-down carry on Arizona’s first drive last week and converted. That indicates to me that the team trusts its talented rookie, and that’s a nice thing to see, but that feels an awful lot like a company paying an employee in compliments.

Yeah, it’s good for morale, but it doesn’t really make a tangible difference.

Benson has seen his snap share decline in three straight games, and Emari Demercado was actually on the field more often against the Vikings (26% snap share to 15.6%). The Seahawks allow the fourth-most yards per carry before contact to running backs this season.

I think this running game has success, I just don’t think the pie is big enough for Benson to work his way onto the Flex conversation just yet.

Tyjae Spears, RB | TEN (vs. JAX)

Tyjae Spears returned from a one-game absence and posted his lowest snap share for a game in which he didn’t exit early (26%). He got his hands on the ball just one time against the Commanders (a three-yard rush), and while I expect his usage to trend closer to where it was earlier this season, we are still talking about a running back who has one game with more than 10 touches this season.

This is the Tony Pollard show, and that’s not going to change down the stretch this season. Spears is a poor man’s version of Jaylen Warren; considering that the real version of Warren is on the outskirts of Flex value, color me pessimistic that Tennessee’s RB2 will grace my top 30 at any point moving forward.

Tyler Allgeier, RB | ATL (at MIN)

Last week against the Chargers is basically spot-on with what we are expecting from Tyler Allgeier these days. He was on the field for 31.2% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps in the loss, not drastically different than his season rate (27.2%), and he got his hands on the ball nine times.

He did virtually nothing with his chances on Sunday (22 yards), and that is why he’s struggled to hold stand-alone value when playing alongside Bijan Robinson. The versatility in his profile has dried up (37 carries against two targets over his past five games), and that makes him an awfully tough sell, even in deeper formats.

When looking at the Kirk Cousins Bowl this week, the outlook doesn’t paint an optimistic picture. Through 13 weeks, the Vikings are one of four defenses allowing under four yards per carry to running backs, making a repeat of Week 12 very possible. If you’re playing Allgeier, you’re assuming a lot of risk with little payoff — that’s not exactly the type of player I make a habit of rostering, let alone playing.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB | NYG (vs. NO)

Tyrone Tracy Jr. has shown plenty of promise during his rookie season and figures to be a fantasy starter in both the short and long term. He scored against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and now has a rushing touchdown or at least three catches in six of his past seven games.

I think we’ve seen enough to trust the rushing profile (5.0 yards per carry this season), so his rattling off catches for 15 and 18 yards on Thursday was encouraging. Drew Lock ate into his upside on the ground last week (57 yards and a score), though I’m not too worried about that sustaining.

The limitations of this offense are clear (13.4 points per game during the current seven-game skid), and while that will likely prevent any spike weeks, the floor that comes with this role alone is enough to keep Tracy in lineups in most situations.

Zach Charbonnet, RB | SEA (at ARI)

Updated at 2:35 PM ET on Sunday, December 22
Charbonnet is active for today's game.

I found it interesting that the Seahawks gave Zach Charbonnet a goal-line carry in the fourth quarter to give them the lead over the Jets on Sunday. In all, it was his fifth straight game with no more than six touches, a role that keeps him well out of Flex discussions in all leagues.

Charbonnet was on the field for 43.9% of snaps in Week 13 and has multiple receptions in four of his past five games – I’m monitoring. Kenneth Walker has underwhelmed over the past 1.5 months (under 4.0 yards per carry in five straight games), and while I’m not suggesting that we see a changing of the guard, I’m not as confident in the hierarchy of this backfield as I was a few short weeks ago.

The Cardinals allow the seventh-most yards per carry after contact to running backs this season — if Charbonnet makes a move for the lead role, this might be the week. I’m not betting on that being the case, but I’m certainly keeping a close eye on this situation, both in leagues where I have Walker and Charbonnet.

Week 14 Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen, WR | CAR (at PHI)

I’ll admit that I didn’t think Adam Thielen had a performance like what he gave us last week still in his bag. The veteran receiver caught a late touchdown pass against the Bucs that ended up extending the game into overtime, an extra session that saw him make a catch that will certainly be on any end-of-season reel you see.

Sheeeeesh @athielen19 pic.twitter.com/bXd9vPB9R6

— NFL (@NFL) December 2, 2024

He finished the game with eight grabs for 99 yards and the touchdown. That performance was nice, and he seems to have established himself as the rest-of-season alpha in this Panthers passing attack. The Eagles have allowed six receivers to reach 20 PPR points, and all of the names on that list are the WR1 types you’d assume.

With that understood, I can’t get Thielen inside of my top 30. Philadelphia hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in a game in four straight, a trend that, no matter how much you like what Bryce Young has put on tape lately, is tough to bank on Carolina reversing.

He’s locked into the slot these days (84% last week), and this upward-trending defense limits production to that spot on the field (sixth-fewest yards per attempt and completion this season).

The hope is for Jalen Coker to return from a two-week absence caused by a nagging quad injury, and while Thielen remains my highest-ranked Panther pass catcher, I’m not confident that there’s enough meat on the bone for him to give away work.

A.J. Brown, WR | PHI (vs. CAR)

A.J. Brown is nothing short of an elite option, and that’s true with or without DeVonta Smith on the field. The Panthers allow passing touchdowns at the third-highest rate, and with a 30-point projection for the Eagles, Brown has plenty of scoring equity added to a profile that is lethal against anyone.

The Buccaneers showed zero hesitation in loading up Mike Evans with all of the usage he could handle (21 expected points, the highest by a receiver against Carolina this season), something I expect Philadelphia to mirror on Sunday.

Over the past month, Brown has rotated 100-yard games with sub-100-yard games … the Ravens held him to 66 yards on Sunday, so we are obviously locking in a triple-digit afternoon for this monster.

Allen Lazard, WR | NYJ (at MIA)

If, in August, I told you that Aaron Rodgers would be getting his most efficient receiver back in the mix for the stretch run, you’d assume that we’d be looking at a league winner hiding in plain sight.

Let me tell you, 2024 has not exactly gone according to plan.

Allen Lazard has produced 32.2% of expectations this season and while that’s a fun stat to spit out, it’s not super predictive in an offense that now features Davante Adams. This offense has had troubles supporting one fantasy WR (just four times since Week 7 has a receiver in this offense reached even 13.5 PPR points), never mind a third.

There’s limited target upside here in a below average offense, not to mention the risk that comes associated with in assuming that Rodgers finishes the season under center. Lazard is roster depth if you have the luxury, but he’s not a must add and is a ways away from being ranked as a comfortable Flex option, something I don’t see changing any time soon.

Amari Cooper, WR | BUF (at LAR)

Updated at 2:55 PM ET on Sunday, December 22
Cooper is active for today's game.

Is it possible that the idea of Amari Cooper in Buffalo is more valuable than the actual version of him? Over his past three games, the former Brown has produced just 70 yards of offense on 61 routes, a level of production that isn’t close to good enough.

The Rams’ defense as a whole has struggled, but not in the spots that mean the most for a player like Cooper. This season, Los Angeles is the sixth-rest red-zone defense, making a bail-out cheap touchdown a little difficult to count on. That’s not to say that receivers haven’t had their moments against this unit, but the top six WR games in this matchup had a cumulative aDOT of 15.4 yards.

Cooper can win down the field, but he’s yet to reach 70 air yards in a game with Buffalo, and I’m not sure that changes this week should Keon Coleman (wrist) return. He still hasn’t been extended to a 51% snap share in a game with this team; until that changes, I’m looking for reasons to start other players in my Flex position.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | DET (vs. GB)

Amon-Ra St. Brown hasn’t scored in consecutive weeks, something that feels like a prolonged slump at this point. He has, however, caught at least five passes in five straight games and remains the unquestioned top threat in arguably the most efficient offense in the sport.

You should have zero concerns about Detroit’s WR1 this week, next week, and for the next handful of years. St. Brown caught all seven of his targets with a three-yard score in the first meeting with the Packers (Week 9), and I’m ranking him as a top-five receiver without a second thought for Thursday night.

Brandin Cooks, WR | DAL (vs. CIN)

Brandin Cooks had a nice diving touchdown last week, but this profile is far too thin to bet on, even in this perfect spot. In his return to action (missed all of October and November), the veteran receiver was on the field for just 39.7% of Dallas’ snaps, a role that is rarely going to pay off in a Cooper Rush-led offense.

Cooks showed signs of decline when fully healthy last season, making a limited version of himself that is a year older something I’m not interested in. This is an underwhelming passing game that has a handful of secondary options next to CeeDe Lamb, none of whom project to consistently hold the edge in target equity.

You should be making excuses to not play Cowboys, not the other way around.

Brian Thomas Jr., WR | JAX (at TEN)

Brian Thomas Jr.’s 4-76-1 stat line last week against the Texans got the job done, but if you were watching the game, it was frustrating. There were a few big misses, the most glaring being a Mac Jones mistake that cost his rookie receiver a 69-yard touchdown.

I wish I could tell you that consistency under center is something that BTJ will get moving forward, but I can’t. It’s highly unlikely that Jones will develop consistency any time soon, and that is going to require patience on your end.

That said, I’m OK with taking my chances in this matchup against a Titans defense that has allowed a 20-point WR performance in consecutive weeks (Nico Collins and Terry McLaurin) after not allowing a single such game previously.

You should be watching this game and the corresponding metrics with an eagle eye — these two teams do battle again at the end of the month with your fantasy Super Bowl on the line.

Calvin Ridley, WR | TEN (vs. JAX)

We have a few revenge spots this week, and Calvin Ridley is positioned to make the most of it even after an underwhelming game in Washington. Tennessee’s WR1 has a 25+ yard catch in six of his past seven games, averaging 8.6 targets per game over that stretch.

This matchup is just right for this skill set — the Jaguars allow the second-most yards per deep passes and the fourth-most YAC yards across all pass types this season as a part of a defense that is the worst in the sport (per EPA).

I mentioned the poor Week 13 showing, and those low-efficiency days are going to happen when attached to Will Levis. For the season, Ridley has three games with at least seven targets and under 50 receiving yards. You have to take that floor into account before locking in your lineup, but the volume is strong enough to justify optimism in this ideal matchup.

Cedric Tillman, WR | CLE (at PIT)

Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM ET
Tillman did not clear concussion protocol and is out

Cedric Tillman didn’t practice last week (concussion) and enters this week still in protocol. Given how productive Jerry Jeudy was on Monday night, I worry that the deep role Tillman left won’t be there when he returns.

For the season, Tillman owns a 12.3-yard aDOT and has seen two of his three scores come on deep passes. For me, he is the most volatile receiver in a volatile offense — I’ll pass unless I’m in the most desperate of situations.

That’s not a knock on Tillman as much as it is confidence in myself to put together a starting lineup that carries a stable enough floor where I don’t need to roll the dice on a profile like this in a tough spot in order to be competitive.

That said, regardless of if he plays this week or not, I’m 100% holding onto Tillman. If you thought the Browns had to put their foot on the gas to keep up with Bo Nix on Monday night, what happens with Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Tua Tagovailoa left on the schedule after this week?

Tillman isn’t the type of player I’m rushing back into lineups, but assuming health, he’s going to carry plenty of ceiling appeal during the most important stretch of the fantasy season.

CeeDee Lamb, WR | DAL (vs. CIN)

Updated at 6:50 PM ET on Sunday, December 22
Lamb is active for tonight's game.

That’s three straight games without an end-zone target for CeeDee Lamb and five straight without a score. He is hanging on for dear life to his status as a lineup lock in this Cooper Rush-led offense, but fortunately, the NFL gods prescribed him the best cure for his recent struggles:

The Cincinnati Bengals.

The road team has the eighth-highest opponent pass touchdown rate and has seen a receiver reach 18 PPR points on 10 occasions. More encouraging than that raw number are two of the names on that list: Jakobi Meyers and Diontae Johnson (with Carolina) both did despite well below-average quarterback play.

I’ve got Lamb ranked as a top-10 receiver this week and am optimistic that we see glimpses of greatness on Monday night, even if the upside for this offense is capped.

Christian Watson, WR | GB (at DET)

Christian Watson has posted an aDOT of 20+ yards in each of his past four games, a role that can carry significant upside if the shots connect.

That’s a big “if.”

For him to capitalize on those deep shots, he has to shake free and finish the play. The offense in Detroit gets plenty of attention, but this defense has been trending up for six weeks now, making Watson a difficult sell — and that’s before factoring in the mind-numbing concentration drops that pop up from time to time.

Ahead of Week 13, Jordan Love expressed optimism in his deep threat, but I’m going to need more than lip service to have me giving Watson a Flex look. He’s seen his on-field target share decline each season, and with Romeo Doubs (concussion) expected back, there are too many mouths to feed to feel good about rolling the dice on a highly volatile player in a difficult matchup.

Cooper Kupp, WR | LAR (vs. BUF)

Cooper Kupp averaged 0.71 yards per route on Sunday, his first game this season under 1.54. It was certainly an underwhelming performance, and a matchup with the Bills doesn’t initially profile as a great rebound spot.

Only twice this season has a receiver reached 18.5 PPR fantasy points against the Bills this season, and both came in the same week (Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard in Week 6). That’s it — outside of that game, this defense hasn’t been victimized at all.

Those are accurate numbers, but it’s also worth noting that Buffalo’s success has come as a result of shutting down perimeter receivers and encouraging defenses to take their medicine in the middle of the field.

Percentage of PPR points scored out wide among Rams WRs, 2024:

• Kupp: 24.7%
• Puka Nacua: 75.7%

It’s no lock that any receiver in Los Angeles exploits this stingy Bills unit, Kupp’s projectable ceiling holds the edge over Nacua’s if the trends hold, something that isn’t reflected in the DFS pricing as Kupp can be had at a 10% discount.

Darius Slayton, WR | NYG (vs. NO)

Darius Slayton ranked behind only Malik Nabers in Giants targets on Thanksgiving in Dallas, and I’m viewing that as a bad thing.

Wait, what?

My thought is that it’s not going to get any better than that. We got a low usage game for Wan’Dale Robinson (two targets) in a spot where New York finished with 11 more pass attempts than rush attempts — those things worked in Slayton’s favor, and he gave you 2.8 PPR points.

The efficiency won’t always be as poor as it was on Thursday, but given the QB situation in New York, I’m not all that comfortable penciling in anything close to league-average per-target numbers.

After Nabers, there isn’t a single target earner I feel good about on this roster, and I can’t imagine picking a boom/bust option from this offense instead of rolling the dice on a player in Tampa Bay or even Carolina with Bryce Young trending in the right direction.

Darnell Mooney, WR | ATL (at MIN)

Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM ET
Mooney is active

The surprise season from Darnell Mooney has hit a roadblock over the past two games (47 yards on 60 routes), as Atlanta’s WR2 has been the receiver most impacted by Kirk Cousins’ cratering.

Mooney hasn’t seen an end-zone target since Week 6 and has produced under expectations in three straight, coming on the heels of producing +13% over expectations through the first nine weeks of the season. At this point, Mooney is no longer a player I’m blindly starting.

He gets the NFC’s best defense by EPA, and with this backfield soaking up plenty of usage alongside Drake London, I’m not sure the target upside is high enough to overcome Cousins’ struggles.

If the QB play improves, Mooney has the potential to return to his WR2 status from October, but we aren’t there right now.

Davante Adams, WR | NYJ (at MIA)

Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers connected on a vintage eight-yard score in the first quarter last week, just their second score in six games since the trade with the Raiders. Volume hasn’t at all been a problem (over 10 targets in three of four games), so if we can get any signs of efficiency, a return to top-10 status is at least possible (53.4% catch rate with the Jets).

The Dolphins have the fifth-lowest opponent aDOT this season, something that could cap Adams’ upside while also raising his floor should the Jets shorten his route tree. I’m holding out some hope that we have yet to see Adams’ best in New York — he’s my WR18 this week, ranking alongside other WR1s paired with QBs with whom I have trust issues (DK Metcalf, Malik Nabers, and Calvin Ridley).

DeAndre Hopkins, WR | KC (vs. LAC)

DeAndre Hopkins still isn’t being put on the field at the rate of a consistent asset (three straight games with a sub-60% snap share), but his role when on the field is enough to keep in lineups.

Over the past two games, a pair of way-too-close victories, Hopkins has posted an on-field target share of 27.3% with three end-zone targets. If you gave me that profile without any context, I’d assume that one, if not both, of those weeks were top-15 finishes at the position, but neither has been.

Hang in there. Physically imposing WRs have been the ones to give the Chargers trouble this season, and we’ve seen enough juice from Hopkins to still put him in that tier.

Top WR fantasy performances vs. Chargers, 2024:

• Tee Higgins, Week 11: 29.8 PPR points
• Ja’Marr Chase, Week 11: 26.5
• Calvin Ridley, Week 10: 25.4
• Calvin Austin III, Week 3: 19.5
• Cedric Tillman, Week 9: 19.5

He has big-play potential with a quarterback who is capable of putting the ball where it needs to be — he’s right with Jameson Williams and DeVonta Smith (if active) in the middle of my Flex rankings for Week 14.

Deebo Samuel Sr., WR | SF (vs. CHI)

The 49ers are running out of bodies and time. This season hasn’t gone anything like San Francisco was hoping, and if it wants to salvage anything down the season, it’s likely to come through the weapon known as Deebo Samuel Sr.

Earlier this season, we saw Samuel routinely earn 5-7 targets with 3-4 rushing attempts, a role that I think we could see return for the remainder of this season with Christan McCaffrey and Jordan Mason landing on injured reserve.

This is a tough matchup against the second-best red-zone defense in the league (40.9% touchdown rate when opponents reach their 20-yard line), but we know Kyle Shanahan excels in getting creative, something I expect to be on full display as this team tries to stay alive.

Samuel checks in as my WR25 for Week 14.

Demarcus Robinson, WR | LAR (vs. BUF)

Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM ET
Robinson is active

Demarcus Robinson has scored on 11 of his 54 catches since joining the Rams, a rate that isn’t likely to be sustained. That said, there is something to be said for where on the field he is used and the attention that his teammates draw off of him.

I’m never going to rank Robinson as a fantasy starter, but his playing time is safe and he’s functioning in an offense with the wide receiver elevator known as Matthew Stafford. His touchdown last week was set up by a nice 46-yard catch — if he works his way into a few deep targets per game, we can discuss moving him up. However, a 4-5 target role in an offense that has three players capable of finishing drives is a thin profile to chase.

DeVonta Smith, WR | PHI (vs. CAR)

Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 22
Smith is active for today's game.

DeVonta Smith missed last week with a hamstring injury, and while there’s some hope that he is back on the field this week, the record of the Eagles affords them the ability to operate with patience for their agility-based wideout.

Smith was a target magnet early in the season, something that we know is in his profile but something that I have to see again before projecting it. The potency of this running game along with the health of Dallas Goedert makes Smith’s target projection rather unstable, and that’s assuming full strength.

In a perfect world, you have enough depth to take a wait-and-see approach here. If that’s not the case, you have a path to his upside against the second-worst EPA defense in the league, but you need to be aware of the risk involved.

DJ Moore, WR | CHI (at SF)

DJ Moore earned 44.4% of the targets on Thanksgiving on his way to an ultra-impressive 8-97-1 stat line. He’s caught at least seven passes in three straight games, the type of streak that can be sustained for extended periods of time when you flash the type of versatility that Moore has recently.

• Previous two weeks: 14 targets and 26 air yards
• Thanksgiving: 16 targets and 168 air yards

He’s trending in a great direction with consecutive top-10 finishes (he had only one top-20 finish before this run), and that’s great to see but doesn’t mean he is free of his risk. This Chicago offense remains spotty, something that is evident by the fact that Moore hasn’t seen an end-zone target since Week 8.

I’m Flexing Moore, ranking him in the same tier as Jerry Jeudy and Brian Thomas Jr., two receivers who carry a wide range of outcomes due to a lack of QB stability.

DK Metcalf, WR | SEA (at ARI)

Updated at 2:35 PM ET on Sunday, December 22
Metcalf is active for today's game.

DK Metcalf was an afterthought in the first half last week (zero catches on two targets), but on a drive early in the third quarter, he had catches of 28 and 30 yards, not to mention a forced DPI and an end-zone target.

I’m not sure why the slow start, but it was clear that the messaging at halftime was to feature their walking mismatch, and I can’t say I disagree with that game plan. He struggled in the Week 12 meeting with the Cardinals (4-59-0), and while I think he’s better than that this time around, I do think there is something to Arizona selling out to slow Seattle’s WR1.

The counting numbers should be fine through sheer volume, but his red-zone target rate is down 10.7 percentage points from a season ago; that, in this matchup, has resulted in me ranking Jaxon Smith-Njigba as my favorite receiver in this offense.

Dontayvion Wicks, WR | GB (at DET)

Dontayvion Wicks had a chance on Thanksgiving to make good on the preseason hype. The Dolphins aren’t an intimidating matchup, and with Romeo Doubs (concussion) sidelined, playing time was as available as it’s been at any point this season.

He was on the field for 88.7% of Green Bay’s snaps (23 routes run), but he mustered just 30 yards, ranking fifth on this team in pass-catching PPR points for the week. With Doubs expected back on Thursday night and a much more prohibitive matchup, Wicks seems to have missed his window.

I’m keeping him rostered through this final week of byes, but if the receivers ahead of him on this depth chart leave Detroit healthy, I’ll be moving on from Wicks this time next week as I look to optimize my lineups for the short-term sprint that is the postseason.

Drake London, WR | ATL (at MIN)

Kirk Cousins looked about as bad as anyone in Week 13, and while betting on him to support your WR1 is scary, he’s obviously well-suited to have an idea of what his former teammates are going to do.

The season hasn’t been a great one for the veteran QB, and still, Drake London has seven top-20 finishes. Of course, there’s the fact that he only has one finish better than eighth at the position, and he lacks the upside that we penciled him in for this summer, but there’s not a conversation to be had here.

The Vikings’ defense is aggressive and creates havoc, but it gets overlooked that there are two sides to that coin. Through 13 weeks, this defense has coughed up at least 18 PPR points to a receiver 10 times with a wide range of skill sets getting it done.

I have no issue penciling in Atlanta’s WR1 for another 6-8 catches for 75-85 yards, a level of production that is deserving of being in your lineup with confidence.

Elijah Moore, WR | CLE (at PIT)

The Moore contingency is coming on strong as we approach the final stretch of the final season with DJ easily clearing 20 points in consecutive weeks and Elijah Moore fresh off of earning a season-high 14 targets. Cleveland’s underneath receiver has caught at least six balls in four of his past six games.

Pittsburgh ranks 24th in yards per catch after the reception this season to the receiver position (4.8), a flaw that I like Moore to pick at more than any of the other WRs on this roster. The range of outcomes is far more narrow than a player like Jerry Jeudy, but I was ultra-impressed with what he put on tape last week, and we know that Jameis Winston is going to give him a chance to make plays.

I’m not sweating the 3-21-0 stat line in the snow against these Steelers two weeks ago. If the Steelers elect to defend against the home-run play and make Winston beat them with 1,000 paper cuts, Moore stands to benefit in a big way.

I think you can Flex him this week in PPR leagues and have him ranked not too far from Chicago’s streaking Moore in my Week 14 WR rankings.

Garrett Wilson, WR | NYJ (at MIA)

Garrett Wilson wiggled free in the end zone last week, and Aaron Rodgers air-mailed him. This offense isn’t generating enough chances to misfire, making those 7.9 points left on the field a week-ruiner for those banking on New York’s WR2.

Wilson has been no better than the WR35 since Week 9, but he did see 111 air yards’ worth of targets last week, and that is interesting in this specific matchup against the only defense in the NFL that has yet to intercept a deep pass.

I’m not going to pretend to have a clue as to what is going on in Rodgers’ head, but we’ve seen him chuck it deep in those “free play” situations for years. He does that because there is literally no risk in doing so, and while that interception trend isn’t that safe, it does encourage aggression.

I have Wilson ranked as a low-end WR2/high-end Flex this week, understanding that there is a floor to consider but a ceiling that I feel is great enough to absorb that risk.

George Pickens, WR | PIT (vs. CLE)

Updated at 3:50 PM ET on Saturday, December 21
Pickens is inactive for today's game.

George Pickens’ 17-yard touchdown on the first drive last week extended his streak to seven straight games with an end-zone target or a score, a role that locks him into fantasy lineups every week.

In the snow, Pickens was able to turn seven targets into just 48 yards in the first game against Cleveland this season. I’m not too worried about the underwhelming performance after watching the Browns chase around the Broncos without much success on Monday night.

He has a deep catch in every Russell Wilson start this season, giving him extreme upside to complement an increasingly stable floor (12 catches on 15 short targets over his past three games).

Pittsburgh is going to need its WR1 to produce at a high level with three elite offenses coming up after this week — you should be sitting pretty if you’re counting on Pickens during your fantasy playoffs.

Jakobi Meyers, WR | LV (vs.TB)

Updated at 2:55 PM ET on Sunday, December 22
Meyers is active for today's game.

Jakobi Meyers has cleared 95 yards in three of his past four games and has been a top-24 receiver in four of his past five. He’s very much making the most of a brutal situation, though it is worth noting that this situation carries a downside, even if Meyers’ fantasy managers haven’t seen it recently.

Over his past four games, he’s earned 43 targets, an impressive number that stabilizes his floor, but with just two of those coming in the red zone, there really isn’t much of a ceiling to consider.

This obviously isn’t a bulletproof situation, that goes without saying. In this matchup, however, I think he’s a safe option. The Bucs blitz at the third highest rate and Meyers’ involvement only rises when an extra defender is brought into the equation (27% on-field target share when his QB is blitzed this season; 19.9% otherwise).

Jalen Coker, WR | CAR (at PHI)

Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM ET
Coker is active

“The hope” is that Jalen Coker returns from consecutive DNPs (quad), and while I think there is something to the undrafted Holy Cross product, I’m not interested in him for the remainder of 2024 in redraft leagues.

With a productive Adam Thielen and a lost season, what motivation does this team have to push Coker in a significant way? This is the type of profile that I think of when it comes to trimming the fat off of your postseason roster — Coker might have a moment or two over the final month, but he’s never realistically going to be on your radar.

Move on.

Jalen McMillan, WR | TB (vs. LV)

The 22-yard catch in overtime last week helped set up a (missed) field goal and there have been enough flashes of potential to be intrigued by Jalen McMillan for 2025, but the lack of consistency in the target department should relegate him to waiver wires in redraft leagues.

I won’t fault you if you want to hold for one more week against a defense that is in the bottom 10 in passer rating and touchdown rate. The Bucs lack a secondary pass catcher next to Mike Evans, but given how many targets this team funnels to the running back position, they are making it work.

McMillan was able to earn just three opportunities against the lowly Panthers last week on 34 routes run. That doesn’t happen to a player who I’m trusting with the fate of my fantasy squad in December.

Jalen Tolbert, WR | DAL (vs. CIN)

The Cowboys were rewarded on Thanksgiving for a wide distribution of targets, and that’s the worst possible news for any managers trying to pluck usage off of the waiver wire for this advantageous matchup. In the win over New York, Cooper Rush targeted six players four to seven times; that’s not going to cut it.

The Bengals are a bottom-10 pass defense in terms of attempts, yards per completion, passer rating, touchdown rate, and sack percentage. They are gettable, and maybe Dallas hangs 30 points on them, but you’re overestimating your predictive powers if you think you can say who, outside of CeeDee Lamb and Rico Dowdle, is in the middle of that production.

Cowboys WR production, Week 13:

• KaVontae Turpin: four catches on five targets for 53 yards
• Tolbert: two catches on four targets for 41 yards
• Brandin Cooks: three catches on seven targets for 16 yards and a TD
• Jonathan Mingo: one catch on four targets for two yards

One of those players could have a big Week 14, but given the risk involved in betting on any of them, I’m not going in this direction unless I’m in true desperation mode.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR | CIN (at DAL)

Ja’Marr Chase has caught more than five passes in five straight games and has found pay dirt in five of his past six as he builds a case to be considered the WR1 in 2025 fantasy drafts.

He hooked up with Joe Burrow on a scramble drill for a touchdown last week, displaying the type of non-verbal communication that Cincinnati was betting on when they paired these collegiate teammates with one another. By averaging 1.86 PPR points per target this season, the Bengals are essentially leaving production on the table every time they throw to someone else, something that I think they are aware of.t

The Cowboys have won consecutive games, but the opposing WR1 has been impactful in both (Terry McLaurin had the late 86-yard score in Week 12 and Malik Nabers vacuumed in 13 targets on Thanksgiving). It’s possible that no one on planet Earth can slow Chase, and it’s possible that Dallas can slow very few people on planet Earth — that combination lands him at the top of my Week 14 receiver rankings.

Jameson Williams, WR | DET (vs. GB)

I loved seeing Jameson Williams with a pair of catches on Detroit’s 15-play opening drive last week and am interested in him in this matchup. On the surface, this looks like a full fade spot — the Packers are the sixth-best defense at limiting deep yardage and the very best in the NFL at taking the ball away on those vertical shots.

Has Williams’ game developed enough to produce in a spot where the opponent’s strength matches up with his primary path to fantasy goodness?

If last week proves to be the start of something, this week could serve as a true turning point. Williams caught all five of his passes thrown less than 10 yards downfield on Thanksgiving — the catch rate is nice, but the volume of such looks is even better.

Williams’ expected PPR points by week:

• Week 7 at Minnesota Vikings: 1.7 points
• Week 10 at Houston Texans: 7.9 points
• Week 11 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 10.3 points
• Week 12 at Indianapolis Colts: 11.9 points
• Week 13 vs. Chicago Bears: 13.7 points

I’m Flexing Williams this week, and if he can come through in this matchup, we might be looking at a sprint to the finish line where he is a top-20 producer at the position as Detroit looks to secure the NFC’s top seed.

Jauan Jennings, WR| SF (vs. CHI)

Jauan Jenning has a catch of 20+ yards in four straight games and has hauled in 78.3% of his targets over the past three games, trends that I like to continue as this team is again forced to adjust to life without Christian McCaffrey.

He’s pulled in a deep pass in three of his past four games, a strength that we should see on full display against the third-worst defense in terms of yards per deep pass. That’s good for the upside, but I’m more intrigued by the 25.5% red-zone target rate.

I still prefer Deebo Samuel Sr. over Jennings, though that’s more the result of me weighing the potential for him to get 3-5 opportunities on the ground. Jennings is my favorite to lead this team in targets this weekend, and that should be enough to land him in fantasy starting lineups.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | SEA (at ARI)

It’s been tight for a few weeks, and I finally made the change this week — Jaxon Smith-Njigba is my highest-ranked Seahawk receiver for Week 14. When these teams squared off, JSN earned one-quarter of Geno Smith’s targets on his way to a 6-77-1 stat line, good for the third-best showing by a receiver against the Cardinals this season.

I see no reason to regress his production. Arizona allows the fifth-most yards per short pass this season, and four of the top six receiver games against them have come from a player with a sub-11-yard aDOT in that contest. Given how this team defends, I don’t think opportunity count is going to be an issue; with a 90.9% catch rate over the past three games, I trust the efficiency of the second-year receiver.

Make the most of your Smith-Njigba exposure this season — you’re not getting him at anywhere near the same price this summer.

Jayden Reed, WR | GB (at DET)

Jayden Reed showcased strong efficiency as a rookie last season (25.2% over expectation) and has only gotten better this year (+51.6%). As a multi-league manager of Reed’s, I can tell you that three straight games (and five of six) with under four receptions is beyond frustrating when you see how potent he is with the ball in his hands, but this is a situation where I’m content to trust the process.

Jordan Love missed him on a deep target on their second play from scrimmage last week; if that connects, the final stat line looks different. He did score twice on Thanksgiving, one of which came on a well-designed screen pass where they leveraged his YAC ability. The team is clearly cognizant of what its WR1 can do; in my opinion, it’s only a matter of time until we see them roll out a Deebo Samuel Sr.-like game plan around him.

Reed turned six targets (16.2% target share) into five catches and 113 yards in the Week 9 game against Detroit. He had a 41-yard catch in that game, more yardage on a single catch than any of his teammates produced for the entire game.

I think looking for 15-ish PPR points in this game is reasonable, and if it turns into the type of shootout that the sportsbooks are expecting, there is the potential for Reed to have your matchup in a great spot heading into the weekend.

Jaylen Waddle, WR | MIA (vs. NYJ)

I think the Dolphins can have plenty of success in this spot and, on a per-dollar basis, I find myself leaning Jaylen Waddle over Tyreek Hill in the DFS streets. Efficiency hasn’t been the issue lately for Miami’s WR2 (14 catches on 16 targets over the past three weeks), and we saw Waddle produce at a high level (8-114-0) in New York last season during the one matchup in which Hill was active.

From a matchup standpoint, there is a path to this setting up better for Waddle. Seven of the top eight producing receivers against the Jets this season spent under 32% of their time in the slot.

Dolphins WR slot rates, 2024:

• Waddle: 19.4% of routes
• Hill: 32.1% of routes

New York allows the ninth most yards per completion this season (11.5), giving me confidence that Waddle’s recent efficiency results in a strong week. Maybe his third 100-yard game of the season?

Jerry Jeudy, WR | CLE (at PIT)

You mean you didn’t have Jerry Jeudy penciled in for a career day facing a Denver defense with a Player of the Year candidate?

I know I didn’t. I bet under on Jeudy’s receiving-yardage total for the game — a ticket that was dead by halftime, and one that Jeudy cleared in a single quarter not once but twice on Monday night.

Jeudy’s heat chart looks like the ideal dating profile — the ability to impress in a variety of areas with no flaws.

Of course, it has to be too good to be true, right? That perfect person on your dating app usually comes with crazy parents or 17 cats or something like that, right?

Well, Jeudy has Jameis Winston. The tandem ran as hot as the sun last week (Jeudy accounted for 73% of Winston’s deep passing yards), but let’s not lose track of the fact that he, while performing at the peak of his powers in a revenge spot, ranked third on the Browns in targets.

This matchup has too many paths to disappointment for me to lock in Jeudy as a top-24 play. Yes, he was able to produce against Pittsburgh in the Week 12 win, but he was held without a target in two of those four quarters, and that’s a scary floor to consider.

For the season, the Steelers are the fourth-best third-down defense and rank third in deep-pass interception rate. Is the upside worth the risk?

Jeudy has five straight games with at least five catches and 70 receiving yards. That’s the second-longest such streak in the NFL this season (Justin Jefferson) and the longest such run in franchise history.

I’m not saying Jeudy falls off a cliff and Flexing him is fine, but I’m resisting the urge to chase the Week 13 performance and will be looking elsewhere in DFS. He’s going to project well, given that the main slate pricing comes out ahead of Monday Night Football.

Jonathan Mingo, WR | DAL (vs. CIN)

Jonathan Mingo has earned 10 targets with the Cowboys since being acquired at the deadline — he has 10 yards to show for it.

It’s fair to have concerns about the value of the high-volume pieces of this offense (CeeDee Lamb and Rico Dowdle), making a secondary option like this well off the radar. I’d rather dig deep down depth charts in Detroit, Cincinnati, or Tampa Bay for sleeper candidates, offenses that offer more upside through the air than this version of the Dallas offense.

Jordan Addison, WR | MIN (vs. ATL)

Jordan Addison pled not guilty to summer DUI charges on Tuesday, ruling out any immediate suspension in the process. The legal process will have to run its course and we can react as that happens, but that’s now a concern for 2025.

The second-year receiver was the top scorer at the position in Week 12 (8-162-1 in Chicago) and, in true Addison form, followed it with an underwhelming showing that saw him finish the week outside of the top 40. He did something eerily similar earlier in the season as he gave us a WR55 finish on the heels of his only other top-10 performance of the season — and therein lies the problem with this player on this offense.

Sam Darnold isn’t the most consistent QB, and Addison is certainly hit or miss on a weekly basis. With T.J. Hockenson rounding into physical form, this profile gets even thinner, and that is why I consistently have him ranked lower than most.

This week is no different. Not only do the Falcons allow an NFL-low 9.6 yards per completion, but they rank 31st in pressure rate. In most instances, that would be a note presented with an optimistic tone, but not here. For the season, Addison is averaging 31.4% fewer points per target when Darnold isn’t under pressure, my thought being that more time to throw gives Minnesota’s two elite target earners more time to operate.

Addison isn’t fully off the Flex radar, but I’d rather take a shot on the two veterans in Chicago or take a spin on the Jameis-coaster in Cleveland.

Joshua Palmer, WR | LAC (at KC)

Joshua Palmer has surpassed seven expected PPR points just once over his past six games, a role that keeps him on waiver wires in most leagues. His 16.2-yard aDOT carries natural variance, and that means there’s always a chance for him to break out, especially against the ninth most vulnerable deep-ball defense on a per-pass basis.

If you want to play this lottery ticket, you have my best wishes. It’s not for me, but if this game script works in his favor and he repeats the 197-air-yard showing from Week 12, there’s a path to WR3 production.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR | KC (vs. LAC)

Filling out your roster with a player on the field for the majority of snaps in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense is never a bad process, but with JuJu Smith-Schuster posting just three receptions on 65 routes in his three games back after missing nearly a month, I can’t express much optimism.

The Chargers allow the eighth-lowest passer rating when opponents throw to the slot, making them a tough matchup for a player who hasn’t shown much potential recently. If you’re looking long-term, each of Kansas City’s next two opponents is more vulnerable to Smith-Schuster’s route tree than the league average — he’s a hold for me.

Justin Jefferson, WR | MIN (vs. ATL)

Justin Jefferson has been held without a catch in consecutive first quarters, and while that’s not ideal, I think it’s a net positive long-term.

The slow starts tell me that Sam Darnold is progressing through his reads and playing the position with maturity. Sure, that’s meant a recent downtick in Jefferson’s production (four straight games with under 100 yards and six straight without a score), but if you take a step back and look at the big picture, you’ll realize that a QB operating like this will take full advantage of when Jefferson is winning his routes, something that happens in most situations.

Jefferson remains a top-five receiver moving forward and is on the short list of players who can lead the position in scoring as we come down the home stretch (Bears, Seahawks, and Packers to finish the season after this weekend).

Keenan Allen, WR | CHI (at SF)

Keenan Allen’s profile is changing. It gave you what you needed last week (5-73-2), but be careful in assuming that his increased reliance on deep passes recently is going to result in consistent production. In Weeks 10-11, the veteran receiver totaled 103 air yards, but over his past two games, he’s averaged 119.1 air yards per contest, a drastic usage shift that requires our attention.

Allen’s aDOT by week, 2024:

• Week 10 vs. New England Patriots: 6.2 yards
• Week 11 vs. Green Bay Packers: 8.3 yards
• Week 12 vs. Minnesota Vikings: 8.8 yards
• Week 13 at Detroit Lions: 13.3 yards

The deep shots have paid off recently (30-yard catch in consecutive games, his first grabs over 22 yards as a Bear); while those splash plays aren’t going to always connect, the fact that Allen has quietly seen at least seven targets in three straight (and five of six) games helps elevate his projectable floor.

He’s never going to rank as a WR2 for me due to the variance that comes with being attached to Caleb Williams and with significant target competition, but the 49ers allow touchdowns at the fourth-highest rate this season (27.4% of drives) — that makes him a perfectly reasonable Flex option in all formats.

Keon Coleman, WR | BUF (at LAR)

Keon Coleman has now missed three straight games with a wrist injury, and his status for this game remains up in the air. Buffalo values the top seed in the AFC and will want to enter the playoffs with confidence in their rookie, so I’m assuming they give him every chance to develop over the final month of the season; however, due to the extended absence, this is obviously a situation that needs to be monitored.

As things stand right now, I’m benching Coleman in season-long situations. Even if he plays, you likely have three if not four receivers that I rank ahead of him — but for GPPs? Now we are talking.

The injury is likely to suppress his ownership in a significant way, and that is exactly the time to take the shot (presuming he’s active, of course). The Rams allow the fourth-highest opponent passer rating this season on deep passes; we are one Josh Allen bomb away from getting Coleman to pay off his DFS price tag and encourage the Rams to play up-tempo football, thus featuring another DFS staple of mine this week in Cooper Kupp.

Khalil Shakir, WR | BUF (at LAR)

Rinse and repeat.

I find that players like Khalil Shakir have a way of being on successful fantasy teams. He’s rarely going to put your team on his back, but when the data is released in a few weeks about the most popular players on fantasy teams that qualified for the postseason, I’m betting we see his name.

That’s now six straight games with at least seven targets for Shakir, a volume level that allows him to overcome having not scored since September. We’ve seen his efficiency fall off a cliff lately (18 catches on 28 targets over his past three games), but we have enough of a sample size to believe, with confidence, that he and Josh Allen will sort that out sooner than later (81 catches on 90 targets in his 25 games before this “slump”).

I had to downgrade him a little based on specifics in this matchup, though he remains a starter in all PPR leagues. The Rams create pressure at the fifth-highest rate this season, and Shakir’s on-field target share dips from 31.4% to 16.5% when Allen is feeling the heat.

Even with that note, I prefer him over other volume-based receivers like Jakobi Meyers, Jauan Jennings, and Keenan Allen for Week 14.

Ladd McConkey, WR | LAC (at KC)

First and foremost, there is a nagging knee injury to consider when it comes to Ladd McConkey. It doesn’t sound overly serious, but with this game being played on Sunday night, it requires your full attention, as you might be forced to make tough decisions without an official game status in hand.

At this moment, I’m operating with optimism until told otherwise, he’s been that good. If you’re trying to really protect yourself, adding JuJu Smith-Schuster, Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, or Andrei Iosivas is a savvy move.

McConkey has surpassed PPR expectations based on his targets in six straight games and has done so with only a single look in the end zone — he’s caught 81% of his targets across those contests in a connection that is producing efficiency numbers well beyond what you’d expect in a first season together.

We know that this slot machine can win in a hurry off the line of scrimmage, we’ve seen that from Day 1. What has my attention in a league-winning sort of way is the fact that he posted 113 air yards on Sunday (his second-highest of the season) and has three straight games with multiple deep receptions (zero such performances through 10 weeks).

He deserves to be locked into lineups in all formats at this point, and you might be surprised at just how high he projects when we take a first look at 2025 rankings in two months.

Malik Nabers, WR | NYG (vs. NO)

Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 22
Nabers is active for today's game.

Malik Nabers recorded his seventh double-digit target game of the season — the volume is a must-have, not a nice to have, given the lack of quality play under center in New York. Just twice this season has Nabers produced over PPR expectations, two instances that came back in September.

Wan’Dale Robinson wasn’t effective on Thanksgiving, and that allowed Nabers to essentially be the only asset in this passing game over the final 32 minutes. When all was said and done, Nabers more than doubled all of his teammates in targets last week; if his role evolves from field stretcher to chain mover in this limited offense, you could sell me on him posting top-10 numbers this weekend.

Possession receivers have accounted for three of the four 20-point games from WRs against the Saints this season:

• Chris Godwin (Week 6: 35.5 PPR points)
• Ladd McConkey (Week 8: 29.1)
• JuJu Smith Schuster (Week 5: 20.0)

I tend to think that Robinson bounces back against the worst YAC defense in the league, and that is why Nabers is a mid-range WR2 for me this week, but I do think he offers more of a production floor in this specific matchup than most.

It’s been an up-and-down season for the rookie, but loyal fantasy managers could be rewarded handsomely with the Ravens, Falcons, and Colts left on his fantasy schedule after Sunday.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR | NO (at NYG)

Maybe I’m alone, but didn’t Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s 28-yard touchdown look similar to his much longer scores? That is, it was a few steps and a “run under it” lob. This one was shorter, but all of his scores generally look the same as he has one way of winning routes.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Deep ball MASTER. Touchdown Saints! pic.twitter.com/OHFuL1uwvi

— Arye Pulli (@AryePulli) December 1, 2024

That’s a profile that I’m generally not overly interested in, but MVS (69.8% of his points have come on TD receptions this season) has my attention this week. The Saints continue to suffer injuries, thus opening up consistent targets; when it only takes one perfectly thrown pass to pay off your faith in him, that’s huge.

If the target projection is reasonably stable and the opponent owns the lowest interception rate in the league (0.3% of pass attempts), why not gamble? The Saints have no real reason not to try with the deep passes, and in an offense with plenty of limitations, those quick hitters offer plenty of appeal — sustaining a long-lasting drive just isn’t in the cards for this offense as currently constructed.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR | ARI (v. SEA)

The 12 targets in Minnesota last week were a season-high for Marvin Harrison Jr. and good to see after totaling just 11 in the previous two weeks, but the efficiency concerns weren’t erased (five catches and 5.0 yards per target). The high-pedigree rookie has been held significantly under fantasy expectations in six of his past eight games, making the volume of looks a mandate for him to return value as opposed to a nice-to-have.

Not to nitpick, but the volume he got last week came in a highly concentrated fashion, something we continue to see from Harrison. He didn’t have a catch until the final 70 seconds of the first half, a pass that was Kyler Murray’s 15th completion of the afternoon.

I take a negative view of the short-term and a positive one long-term. I don’t see the sporadic usage changing this year, and that’s going to cap his weekly consistency, but in the scope of 2025, what if those high-target stretches are extended for longer periods after having a year to gel?

Harrison is a WR2 this week and moving forward for the rest of this season. I anticipate getting more shares of him at somewhat of a suppressed cost next season — the profile remains impressive, but the cost should be less prohibitive.

Michael Wilson, WR | ARI (vs. SEA)

Michael Wilson saw seven targets last week in Minnesota, matching his second-highest total of the season and marking a step in the right direction. I’ll be tracking his ability to earn targets down the stretch of this season and weighing any development shown into my 2025 rankings, but I just can’t get there as a true Flex option.

We don’t have enough proof of his role being one of volume, and that makes his 18.4% decline in aDOT this season enough to make him more fantasy roster depth than a lineup threat. If you’re struggling for options, we’ve at least seen Wilson produce down the field in this matchup (catches of 24 and 30 yards in the Week 12 meeting), making him a dart I’d throw over a Quentin Johnson or Marquez Valdes-Scantling type this week.

Mike Evans, WR | TB (vs. LV)

Updated at 6:50 PM ET on Sunday, December 22
Evans is active for tonight's game.

Mike Evans made a twirling one-handed grab in the back of the end zone on his first target of Week 13 because that’s what he does. His 101 touchdown catches tell the story of him being as tough a cover in scoring situations as anyone in this generation. Only the Panthers allow more trips inside the 20-yard line than the Raiders this season, and that allows Tampa Bay’s alpha to hold plenty of scoring equity in this spot.

What has me a little worried is the success of underneath options against Vegas and Baker Mayfield’s propensity to use his running backs in those situations. The Raiders have the third-lowest opponent aDOT this year, and the top-eight WR performances against this defense posted a weekly aDOT of 11.5 yards or lower.

Evans’ aDOT is as low as it’s been, but he’s far from a check-down option (aDOT: 12.6). I’d be surprised if we get a repeat of his 8-118-1 stat line from the weekend, and that means he probably doesn’t swing your matchup, but 12-15 PPR points are a good bet and deserving of being locked into your lineup.

Mike Williams, WR | PIT (vs. CLE)

I suspect that we will look back at the 2024 NFL trade deadline in six weeks and acknowledge the value added by some of the true contenders. Diontae Johnson joining the Ravens might pay off with time, and Mike Williams with these Steelers could too, but that doesn’t help us today, and I don’t think that’s going to change this week.

Williams’ weekly snap shares with Pittsburgh:

• Week 11 vs. Baltimore Ravens: 31.1%
• Week 12 at Cleveland Browns: 28.4%
• Week 13 at Cincinnati Bengals: 24.2%

Williams’ big catch with Pittsburgh was the 32-yard touchdown that we all remember, but he’s otherwise been an afterthought. Are they saving him? Is he struggling with the playbook?

I like the idea of him in this offense, but at this point, I think it’s safe to say that redraft fantasy managers can stop holding onto hope. Even if Williams sees his role expand, there’s not enough time left in the fantasy season for him to emerge into a Flex-worthy name.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR | TEN (vs. JAX)

Who do we think of when it comes to touchdown-only players? I polled the crew here at PFN and got some fun names that put me in a time machine:

• Tommy Vardell (1997-98): TD on 16.3% of touches
• Brandon Jacobs (2005): TD on 14.3% of touches
• Mike Tolbert (2012): TD on 13% of carries
• TJ Duckett (2008): TD on 12.9% of touches
• Mike Alstott (2005): TD on 11.8% of touches

Those are cute names. And I don’t disagree with any of them — those players, in those seasons, were put on the field for one purpose and one purpose only.

• Westbrook-Ikhine (2024): TD on 40% of touches

What we are seeing is as historic as it is unsustainable. For the season, 73.1% of his PPR points this season have come on touchdown receptions, a rate that is difficult to comprehend. A 14.4% on-field target share would have trouble cracking my top 30 receivers in any offense, let alone a Will Levis-led unit.

I don’t own Westbrook-Ikhine anywhere, but if I did, I’d have benched him every week this season. I’m a math guy, and that remains the proper process play — if you’re buying his vibes as sustainable (despite the lack of a single elite trait), more power to you. I’ll side with logic and statistics and take my chances.

Parker Washington, WR | JAX (at TEN)

If you watched four minutes of the Jaguars game on Sunday, you saw Parker Washington. He saw at least three targets in three of four quarters of the loss to the Texans on his way to leading the team in receiving yards (103) and the game in targets.

Included in the nice effort were a 30-yard grab from Trevor Lawrence and a 22-yarder from Mac Jones, proof that his involvement was the function of how this team game-planned. That’s great to see, but what is to say that the specific designs weren’t matchup-driven as opposed to the unlocking of the second-year receiver out of Penn State?

In Week 13, 75% of his targets traveled at least 10 yards in the air, bringing on risk on a few levels. First of all, that means you’re trusting Mac Jones down the field, and we have proof that is dangerous. More worrisome for me, however, is the skill duplication with Brian Thomas Jr., a player who is simply better at stretching the field.

Washington is a popular add, and I don’t have a problem with that, but I’m not ranking him as a top-40 option against the third-best pass defense in terms of yards per pass. In eight games before last week’s breakout, Washington caught seven passes on 131 routes — I need to see more before going this direction over the Elijah Moore, Rome Odunze, or Xavier Legette types from whom we have a larger sample of viable target-earning abilities.

Puka Nacua, WR | LAR (vs. BUF)

Puka Nacua has scored or reached a baker’s dozen in targets in four straight games, establishing himself as the Los Angeles Rams’ WR1 and someone whom the NFL has yet to determine how to slow down.

You deserve to have the utmost confidence in Nacua. He’s done more than enough since the beginning of last season to consider him matchup-proof. That said, if I want exposure to this passing offense in a keep-up spot with the Bills in a daily format, it’s Cooper Kupp over Nacua.

The Rams’ second-year receiver is Los Angeles’ primary perimeter threat, which is the spot on the field where the Bills focus. Through 13 weeks, Buffalo, on targets thrown out wide, ranks first in passer rating, first in interception rate, and third in yards per pass attempt.

That’s nitpicking at the highest level; like the Bengals, the Rams have a pair of top-15 receivers that you’re plugging in weekly and not thinking twice.

Quentin Johnston, WR | LAC (at KC)

If it wasn’t for the artist known as Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Quentin Johnston scoring once every four receptions would be the poster profile when it comes to regression. It’s been more than a month since Johnston caught more than two passes in a game, and the inefficiencies have hit a fever pitch over his past three games (four catches on 17 targets).

Johnston hauled in just one of five targets for a whopping nine yards in the first meeting with the Chiefs, though I think there is more upside this week than that ugly stat line suggests (KC: ninth-most yards per deep pass attempt allowed).

There’s a time and place for rolling Johnston out there as your Flex, and if you’re in a position to swallow risk for reward, go for it. I rank based on mean outcomes, and until we see Johnston earn looks at a consistent rate (under four catches in eight of 10 games), he’s not going to grade as a play.

Ricky Pearsall, WR | SF (vs. CHI)

It’s not happening. The Brandon Aiyuk injury opened up the path to consistent playing time for Ricky Pearsall, but the rookie isn’t ready to be a fantasy asset just yet.

A snap share over 65% in consecutive games is encouraging, and the reps figure to prove fruitful with time. This roster might look different next year, and this experience will have me higher on Pearsall in August than you are. I like this player and his long-term fit, but with zero catches on 61 routes over the past three games, there’s no reason to try to get ahead of a breakout this season.

Rome Odunze, WR | CHI (at SF)

Rome Odunze has earned 16 targets over the past two weeks, growth that is nice to see as this young offense begins to take shape long-term. Unfortunately, like a toddler learning to walk, it’s not all seamless.

Despite all of the volume, Odunze has 13.4 PPR points to show for the spike in usage. He’s seen at least four deep targets in three straight games, and while that gives him the potential to break out any day now, this matchup doesn’t profile as the right spot to roll the dice.

Opponents average just 9.3 yards per deep pass against the 49ers this season (fourth-lowest), projecting this to be another game with plenty of shots and little success. Anthony Richardson has the lowest passer rating among qualified QBs this season at 64.3 — that’s 17.7 points higher than the number of opponents that have posted when throwing deep against San Francisco this season.

This looks like a conservative game plan for Caleb Williams, and that’s not the type of projection I want as an Odunze manager.

Romeo Doubs, WR | GB (at DET)

Romeo Doubs (concussion) sat out last week, but all signs were pointing to his return this week. Unfortunately, he isn’t quite ready just yet.

While this would have been good news for the Packers as they try to keep up with the Lions, it shouldn’t matter for fantasy managers. We are nearing two months since the last time Doubs scored, and with just three games over 50 receiving yards, there’s nowhere near enough of a floor to gamble on the marginal upside.

Tee Higgins, WR | CIN (at DAL)

Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 22
Higgins is active for today's game.

Tee Higgins has four top-20 finishes in his seven games this season and has scored five times in his past five games. On a per-game rate, this is the best season of his career when it comes to earning end-zone looks. And by earning a target on 29.3% of his red-zone routes, Higgins’ scoring equity is as high as it’s ever been.

The Cowboys couldn’t stop the Giants from getting the ball to their elite playmaking receiver (Malik Nabers accounted for 38.1% of New York’s receptions on a 40.6% target share), and the Bengals have two players like that who are a threat to score on every target they get.

I have Higgins ranked behind Ja’Marr Chase, but both are to be considered WR1s with the potential to swing your matchup in the final game of Week 14.

Tyler Lockett, WR | SEA (at ARI)

Week 9 was the last time Tyler Lockett finished as a top-65 receiver. And although this matchup isn’t scary, it’s the same secondary that held the veteran receiver to just four fantasy points two weeks ago (10.7% target share).

Seattle’s offense (21st in points scored per drive) isn’t nearly consistent enough to sustain a running back and three receivers. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has separated himself from Lockett when it comes to the featured role in the short-to-intermediate pass game, rendering the latter unusable in all formats.

If you’re holding Lockett at this point in the season, you’re grasping at a name you recognize as opposed to reacting to the most current information that we have access to.

Tyreek Hill, WR | MIA (vs. NYJ)

Updated at 2:55 PM ET on Sunday, December 22
Hill is active for today's game.

Tyreek Hill caught a Jonnu Smith drop in the end zone on Thanksgiving against the Packers in garbage time, giving him a touchdown in three of his past four games. It was a fortunate play, but part of putting up fantasy numbers is being in the right place to succeed, and at the very least, Hill did that in Week 13.

Over the past three weeks, Miami’s WR1 has 18 catches, and if you told me that we’d be getting six receptions per game, I’d take it to the bank. Hill doesn’t have a catch gaining more than 30 yards since the 80-yarder in Week 1 (vs. Jacksonville), a lack of big plays that feels impossible.

It could flip this week, and that potential has me continuing to play him with high expectations, even if the box scores haven’t proven that wise. The Jets have the second-highest opponent aDOT, and we saw the Dolphins’ offense use Hill as their sun last season in his lone game against them (9-102-1 on a 42.9% target share).

I’ve got Hill ranked as a low-end WR1 and could see him being a “pay up to be different” option in DFS contests.

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR | NYG (vs. NO)

If you want to get cute in a DFS format, I could see going in the Wan’Dale Robinson direction. The Saints allow more yards per short pass attempt than any defense in the NFL, making one of those double-digit target afternoons very possible.

“Possible,” not “projectable”.

Robinson saw just two targets last week (6.3% share), and given the limited potential of New York’s offense, that’s brutal. He finished Thanksgiving ranked sixth on the Giants in receiving yards for Week 13, something that I would have told you was close to impossible in a healthy game (76.3% snap share).

But it did, and without this offense giving us much reason for optimism, I can’t reasonably rank Robinson as a top-40 receiver, even in full PPR settings — that’s part of what makes him a viable DFS punt play.

Xavier Legette, WR | CAR (at PHI)

Adam Thielen was the Panthers’ receiver who paid the bills last week, but his role is at risk with Jalen Coker (quad) expected back. Thus, Xavier Legette is my highest-ranked WR in Carolina this week and moving forward.

The rookie has reached double digits in expected PPR points in four of his past five games, a role-based number that is more likely to result in “actual” production with time now that Bryce Young is showing glimmers of hope.

In this specific match, my “highest-ranked Panthers WR” praise isn’t impactful when it comes to setting lineups. The Eagles are the second-best points-per-drive defense since Week 8 and could feast on this offense.

If I can help it this week, I want no part of this Carolina offense. We can circle back next week with the Cowboys coming to town.

Xavier Worthy, WR | KC (vs. LAC)

Xavier Worthy caught a season-high five passes last week, and while consistency remains an issue, breadcrumbs of growth are slowly being laid. The burner has seen his average depth of target decline in four straight games, something that tells me that Andy Reid is encouraged by the development of his first-round pick.

Many fantasy managers look at the aDOT of a player like Worthy and want it to skyrocket. I’m different. The speed and single-play upside isn’t going anywhere; that will remain in Worthy’s profile as long as he’s healthy.

I have the utmost faith in the Reid/Patrick Mahomes tandem to take their shots, making a regressing aDOT a floor elevator to hold us over while we wait for the splash play.

The Chargers are an elite defense, but they do allow 12.5% of deep passes to go for touchdowns, the second-highest rate in the league and nearly double the NFL average. The slate-breaking potential is there, and if the lowering of his aDOT is sustained, we have the potential to Flex Worthy without the worry of a zero.

Week 14 Fantasy Football Tight Ends

Brock Bowers, TE | LV (vs.TB)

Since 2000, three rookies have had three double-digit catch games: Odell Beckham Jr. (2014), Jaylen Waddle (2021), and Brock Bowers (2024). There is no shortage of ways to tell you what you’re well aware of — Vegas’ star tight end is already an alpha.

Through 13 weeks, 19 times has a qualified tight end posted an on-field target share north of 32%. Bowers has accounted for five of them.

I couldn’t resist. I had to give you some more crazy numbers. Bowers is breaking the mold of rookie players at the position, and he has every chance to be a league winner with the Falcons, Jaguars, and Saints on the docket after this weekend.

Cade Otton, TE | TB (vs. LV)

I’m going to keep saying it: Cade Otton isn’t a reliable fantasy option when Mike Evans is on the field. It’s really that simple.

With Mike Evans on the field, 2024:

• 14.8% on-field target share
• 22.9% red-zone target rate
• 3.4 aDOT

Without Mike Evans on the field, 2024:

• 21.5% on-field target share
• 30% red-zone target rate
• 6.9 aDOT

Otton has turned 18 targets into just 85 yards (and no touchdowns) over his past three games, struggles that I’m happy to bet on sustaining both this week and moving forward. He’s a streaming option at best moving forward, not the lineup lock that too many managers still label him as.

Cole Kmet, TE | CHI (at SF)

The target distribution patterns are starting to take shape in Chicago, and that’s not good news when it comes to managers hoping that Cole Kmet can scratch across enough volume to matter.

Literally, anything in the world can happen one time. Outliers are a part of our game. If you remove the bizarre 10-target Week 12 loss to the Vikings, Kmet’s past five games have seen him turn 164 routes into 11 targets. That’s not going to get it done without high-end scoring equity, something that no one in this offense holds (KMet hasn’t scored since Chicago returned from London).

That outlier game against Minnesota is the only time since Week 3 in which Kmet earned more than five targets. Of the TEs on your waiver wire, most of them have a trait I trust. Be it the overall offensive environment, raw talent, or role — I’d argue that Kmet checks zero of those boxes.

Dallas Goedert, TE | PHI (vs. CAR)

Dallas Goedert has seen four end-zone targets in his four games back from injury and is essentially back to his full-time role.

That’s the good. The bad is the nature of this offense — even with a strong snap share, Goedert has failed to run 20 routes in consecutive games, something that caps his production in a significant way.

If the route/target count only has so much room to impress, efficiency is going to have to be the name of the game for Goedert to pay off being trusted by fantasy managers. For the season, his 82.6% catch rate is a good start, though I worry that his last seven receptions have gained just 54 yards.

If you thought Philadelphia was run-heavy last week (33 rush attempts against 19 passes) in Baltimore, what do you think is going to happen with Carolina coming to town?

For me, this is a DeVonta Smith discussion. The burner sat out last week (hamstring), and if that’s the case again on Sunday, I think you can get away with starting Goedert. If not, and this is where I currently lean with Smith not being far from suiting up last week, Goedert slips below my comfort tier and resides in the streamer range at the position.

Dalton Kincaid, TE | BUF (at LAR)

Updated at 2:55 PM ET on Sunday, December 22
Kincaid is active for today's game.

Dalton Kincaid has missed consecutive games with a knee injury. Given the lack of previous production, it’s hard to go back to Buffalo’s tight end until we get proof of full health.

His struggles through two months have lost Kincaid the benefit of the doubt that a strong rookie campaign earned him. This year, he’s yet to reach 55 yards a single time and only has two scores on his ledger despite the potency of this offense,

In theory, I still like the idea of Kincaid and what he offers to this team, but we’ve yet to see him thrive in 2024, and the role is at risk as the receivers trend toward full strength. I’m an optimist at heart and am holding, but I don’t see an avenue to playing him with confidence this weekend, even with six teams on a bye.

Post-hype option in 2025?

David Njoku, TE | CLE (at PIT)

David Njoku was one of five Browns to see 4-6 targets in the Week 12 meeting with the Steelers, spread-out usage that seems likely to again be the case in this spot with Pittsburgh’s defense requiring offenses to be creative (unless you have Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on your roster, then you can do whatever you want).

If Njoku isn’t getting weighed down with elite usage, I worry about his upside. We got a glimpse of the floor that is present in an inconsistent offense facing off against an elite defense (Njoku turned those five targets into nine yards), a range of outcomes that isn’t very appealing.

The physical profile of Njoku gives him the potential to make any single target worth your loyalty, and that’s enough to start him in season-long formats, but I’m not tempted to look this way in the DFS streets.

Dawson Knox, TE | BUF (at LAR)

Dawson Knox has been making splash plays over his past three games (136 yards on eight catches), and that’s not a bad profile to take into a matchup against EPA’s ninth-worst pass defense this season.

It goes without saying that Knox’s value is tied to the status of Dalton Kincaid. With the young tight end healthy to open the season, Knox didn’t reach 20 routes run for the first time until November. That means he’s not worth a spot on your roster if he’s filling the TE2 role, but should he get another week atop the depth chart, he can again serve as a viable option.

Evan Engram, TE | JAX (at TEN)

The injury to Trevor Lawrence was hard to watch and lowers the ceiling of this passing game, though Evan Engram managers need not panic.

With Mac Jones, 2024:

• 29.1% on-field target share
• 25% red-zone target rate
• 6.2 average depth of target

With Trevor Lawrence, 2024:

• 24.6% on-field target share
• 10% red-zone target rate
• 6.0 average depth of target

Engram’s nine targets netted just 41 yards last week, and his game prior wasn’t any better (28 yards on seven targets). However, the volume appears stable, and that’s enough to give me confidence in this spot and moving forward.

George Kittle, TE | SF (vs. CHI)

Are the Bears an elite AFC team?

Not a trick question. They aren’t elite, nor are they an AFC team.

One team that isn’t on the short list of AFC Super Bowl contenders has held George Kittle out of the end zone this season — the Jets back in Week 1. I’m not at all sweating a down week for Kittle in a blizzard against the Bills on Sunday night. This is a high-usage player who cleared 14 PPR points in eight straight games before the ugly Week 13.

The Bears’ defense isn’t as good as they were early in the year, and with Christian McCaffrey’s role in the passing game vacated, I have zero reservations about labeling Kittle as a top-five player at the position.

Jake Ferguson, TE | DAL (vs. CIN)

Jake Ferguson suffered a concussion in Week 11 and was unable to play on Thanksgiving as he continues to recover. Not all head injuries are created equal, and that means we have to take this situation day by day.

I’m hopeful that he returns for this plus matchup. By EPA, this is the fifth-worst pass defense in the league, and the TE1 role in this offense is likely to be viable if you, like me, expect the game script to work toward another volume game for Cooper Rush.

It’s been a brutal season for Ferguson (two games since September with 25+ yards), but should we get strong reports on his status, I’m not ruling out sliding him inside my top 15 at the position. At the bottom level of usable options at the position, if I can get two of three boxes checked, I’m at least moderately interested.

• Role
• Matchup
• Efficiency

I’d argue that, if at full strength, we could be looking at a matchup difference-maker on Monday night. If you can add Luke Schoonmaker or Mike Gesicki as insurance, I’d 100% do that in an effort to buy as much time as possible.

Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE | CAR (at PHI)

Ja’Tavion Sanders suffered a scary-looking head/neck injury in the first half of Week 12’s loss to the Chiefs, which landed him in the hospital following the game. Hopefully, everything checks out health-wise, as there have been flashes of difference-making talent in this profile. However, there’s no reason for the Panthers to be aggressive with him, and that has me looking in other directions at the position.

If Sanders can return to a full workload, we can circle back, but there’s no reason to take on this level of risk. The future is bright for him and maybe this offense as a whole — don’t forget about his name this summer.

Jonnu Smith, TE | MIA (vs. NYJ)

Jonnu Smith is tied for fourth at the position in PPR points per game since Tua returned to the field. That’s even more impressive when you consider that he averages more fantasy points per target over that stretch than the names ahead of him on the scoring leaderboard.

The veteran has posted an on-field target share north of 20% in five straight games, vacuuming in at least six looks in seven of his past eight games. There was certainly some garbage time on Thanksgiving, but the fact remains that Smith is a chain mover — of his 25 catches over his past three games (301 yards and three scores), 19 have picked up a first down.

Smith doesn’t have the per-target upside of Miami’s receivers, but his role appears to be as safe as any pass catcher in this offense, and that lands him inside of my start-every-week tier at the position.

Juwan Johnson, TE | NO (at NYG)

Updated at 6:45 PM ET on Monday, December 23
Johnson is active for tonight's game.

Juwan Johnson finished Week 13’s loss with a season-high seven targets, and we could see that level of involvement sustained as a result of the Taysom Hill injury.

We’ve seen a few splash plays from New Orleans’ offense, but don’t let that fool you. This is a very cautious offense that is plenty capable of funneling looks in volume to a chain mover like Johnson.

Over the Saints’ past three games, Derek Carr has a 5.0-yard average depth of throw when not targeting Marquez Valdes-Scantling. This is a top-10 offense in rush rate over expectation, and that’s holding back my pass-attempt projection this week. However, looking for 7-10 PPR points is plenty reasonable, something that should be enough to keep you competitive, even if it’s not going to win you your matchup.

Kyle Pitts, TE | ATL (at MIN)

If you remove those two bonkers games against the Buccaneers and project Kyle Pitts’ projection over a full season, we are looking at a 41-reception season (536 yards and two touchdowns).

That’s essentially 2023 Chig Okonkwo.

Over the past two weeks, Pitts has turned 53 routes into nine yards. That yardage is so low I had to spell out the number. For whatever reason, Pitts’ name still carries weight for some, but if you’re weighing his draft capital at this point, you’re leaving fantasy points on the board weekly.

He’s not a top-15 tight end for me this week (his last end-zone target came in Week 6), a damning ranking when you consider that there are six teams on a bye. I’d rather sign up for Mike Gesicki or Will Dissly, both this week and for the remainder of the season.

What a world.

Luke Schoonmaker, TE | DAL (vs. CIN)

Luke Schoonmaker has at least five grabs or a touchdown in three straight games, showing well for himself as he fills the Jake Ferguson role. Given the lack of a reliable WR2 in this offense, could Dallas opt for two tight ends when their presumed starter is back?

It’s possible, but while that would keep Schoonmaker on the field, I’m not confident that this recent run of production is sustainable in a Cooper Rush-led offense.

If there is a singular tight end dominating the opportunities at the position by the time we get to the weekend, I’ll play him as a low-end TE1 (be it Ferguson at full strength or Schoonmaker filling that role as he has recently). If we lack that clarity, I’d rather go to Mike Gesicki or Juwan Johnson as my Band-Aid at the position.

Mike Gesicki, TE | CIN (at DAL)

For the second consecutive week, Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase accounted for the majority of Joe Burrow targets, a condensed tree that is good for Bengal business, but not so much when it comes to trying to pick off value elsewhere in this offense.

Mike Gesiki is a warm body in a fiery offense, and that’s not a bad place to be when trying to stream the position. The former Nittany Lion has run a route on 97.3% of his snaps this season (34 routes per game over the past month), and with a 75% catch rate, Gesicki is viable when given the opportunity — it’s just a toss-up weekly if that’s going to be the case.

I prefer him to Will Dissly and Cade Otton this week, even if it’s just in a low-end TE1 sort of way. Gesicki owns the second-highest aDOT at the position through 13 weeks, and the Cowboys have struggled when attacked vertically.

Cowboys vs. passes thrown 10+ yards downfield, 2024:

• 24th in passer rating
• 25th in yards per completion
• 26th in yards per attempt
• 28th in touchdown rate

Pat Freiermuth, TE | PIT (vs. CLE)

Pat Freiermuth has now cleared 55 yards in consecutive games (one such game in Weeks 1-11) and has caught 17 of 18 targets over his past five games. The 25-yard touchdown in Cincinnati over the weekend was a productive play, but I was more encouraged by the process behind it than the numbers it resulted in.

Russell Wilson was scrambling and felt comfortable in going to someone not named George Pickens when under pressure. I find it unlikely that we are getting seven targets from Freiermuth on any sort of consistent basis, but if we can safely pencil in 4-5 receptions in an offense that all of a sudden looks potent, that’s the type of profile that I’m comfortable with this time of year.

Sam LaPorta, TE | DET (vs. GB)

Sam LaPorta was able to make a six-yard performance work for you last week thanks to a pair of scores — 42.9% of his PPR points this year have come on touchdowns (2023: 35.8%). The reliance on touchdowns is terrifying, but a little less so for a player tied to the most efficient offense in the NFL.

I don’t blame you if you’re disappointed with what you’ve gotten from LaPorta this season. I wish I could tell you that things will get better down the stretch, but I’m not so sure.

Jameson Williams missed Detroit’s first meeting with the Packers, and yet, LaPorta saw just three targets (two catches for 28 yards). We saw LaPorta struggle with efficiency against Green Bay during his 2023 breakout (103 yards on 13 targets), and if that’s going to be the case, the floor simply isn’t high enough to love this spot.

LaPorta is better than what is readily available on your waiver wire due to the TD equity. This is a bet on the Lions’ offense more than the player himself.

Taysom Hill, TE | NO (at NYG)

Taysom Hill’s season came to an end on Sunday, ending what was a nice run as a cheat code at the position. What the future holds for the 34-year-old is anyone’s guess (one year remaining on his deal), and his fantasy stock next season will be evaluated with time as the Saints get healthier. But for the sake of 2024, you can move on from a player who appeared destined to support a deep playoff run.

Juwan Johnson is the add. While he isn’t walking into Hill’s role, he does profile as a reasonable option as we approach the stretch run of the fantasy season.

T.J. Hockenson, TE | MIN (vs. ATL)

T.J. Hockenson was held under 50% of the offensive snaps in each of his first three games this season, as the team was cautious with his return after missing over 10 months. Hockenson’s snap share has been up over 64% in consecutive games now, and with the Vikings continuing to churn out victories, he’s trending in a great direction for fantasy managers.

His three catches for 28 yards against the Cardinals on Sunday was far from encouraging in terms of a box score. This is a situation where I’m favoring opportunity over production. With the playing time ticking up and six targets, I think we view Week 13 as a lost battle but a step toward winning the war.

Is Johnny Mundt scoring a knife turn we didn’t need? Yes. But without consistent usage for any of the receivers on this team not named Justin Jefferson, Hockenson is in a good spot to be a Tier 2 producer at the position for the final month of the fantasy season.

Travis Kelce, TE | KC (vs. LAC)

On Black Friday, Travis Kelce easily led the Chiefs in catches (seven) and targets (13), a usage rate that left fantasy managers a little underwhelmed with the final result (68 scoreless yards). The spike of involvement for Noah Gray (three straight games with four receptions and six straight with at least 24 routes run) is annoying and potentially prohibitive, but not nearly enough to knock Kelce out of the starter tier moving forward.

Kelce hasn’t been a top-10 TE performer in the majority of his games this season. Although that’s not the type of note you want given the price you paid over the summer, his 6+ catches in five of six games elevates his floor that is plenty usable once you get past the elite tight ends.

Trey McBride, TE | ARI (v. SEA)

The knock on Trey McBride last season was sustaining the volume he showed after a slow start to his 2023 season. As he broke out, he caught 73 passes in his final 12 games, a usage that was so good that it caused debates about not if regression would happen but how much.

• 2024 (11 games): 73 catches

He is the answer to the “Who did Nick Westbrook-Ikhine steal all of his touchdown luck from?” question, and that’s a tough pill to swallow. But it’s not the type of thing that is predictive. You trust the volume and don’t think twice about it. Since 2000, six times has a player hauled in at least 12 passes in consecutive games before starting his fourth NFL season …

• Stefon Diggs (2016)
• Davante Adams (2016)
• Michael Thomas (2018)
• Justin Jefferson (2022)
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (2023)
• McBride (2024)

That streak started with a loss against these Seahawks (12-133-0), a game in which he posted a 50% reception share. McBride is my TE1 for the rest of this season and deserves to be in the conversation with Brock Bowers for the top spot at the position in dynasty formats.

Tucker Kraft, TE, | GB (at DET)

Tucker Kraft caught six of seven targets against the Dolphins on Thursday night, matching his season-highs in both catches and yards in the process. The production was good to see, though I’m going to need to see more than one week of optimistic usage to offset a three-game run that saw him total 60 receiving yards.

The big tight end was able to turn six targets into just 34 yards against the Lions in Week 9, and I think that’s probably closer to what we can expect. If I roster Kraft, I’m not excited about playing him, but as an involved player in a weather-proof game with a total north of 50, you’re not going to be able to manufacture a better scenario.

Tyler Conklin, TE | NYJ (at MIA)

In Week 13, Tyler Conklin saw his most targets since Week 5, caught 80% of his looks, and had more receptions than any Jet not named Davante Adams or Garrett Wilson. All of that, and he didn’t sniff a top-20 finish at the position.

There simply isn’t a path to streamer value, let alone overachieving to the level that can impact your league in a meaningful way. You can safely ignore New York’s tight end, even with his regular role in this offense.

Will Dissly, TE | LAC (at KC)

Will Dissly entered Week 13 having given us at least eight PPR points in three straight (and five of six) games, giving streamers a consistent fall-back option with the hope that he’d provide value the rest of the way as this offense opens up.

The thought process was sound, but after earning just a single target on 20 routes in Atlanta over the weekend, it’s clear that he remains more of a week-to-week band-aid than a locked-and-loaded option that we can bank on routinely.

I’m not going to site Brock Bowers’ big Week 13 as a reason to play Dissly in this matchup as the usage is simply too different, but the Chiefs allowed Ja’Tavion Sanders to turn three targets into 7.9 PPR points the week prior and Dawson Knox to earn six looks in Week 11.

There are seven tight ends I feel good about and then another eight that are in a muddy tier of ugliness — he’s right in the center of that with names like Cade Otton and Pat Freiermuth when discussing Week 14.