The weather’s getting cold up in the Midwest, but the AFC North playoff race is heating up.
Three teams — the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, and Cincinnati Bengals — entered Week 13 with a plausible belief that they will reach the postseason.
Can all three? Perhaps. In most AFC North playoff scenarios, at least two teams get in.
AFC North Playoff Scenarios | Week 13 Update
For the Bengals, it’s Wild Card or bust. With eight losses after another high-scoring loss, they had roughly a 1-in-1,000 chance of winning the AFC North.
We’re not going to waste your time explaining how, but the most important thing to know is they have already lost both of their annual games with the Ravens. That tiebreaker is already decided.
As for making it as a Wild Card? The Bengals entered Week 13 as the No. 10 seed and with just a 7.5% chance to get in. Following Week 13, those odds are down to 4.6%. If they do get in, it will almost certainly be as the AFC’s No. 7 seed.
The Bengals’ closing stretch includes a rematch against the Steelers and one against the Broncos, Titans, Browns, and Cowboys.
Also working against the Bengals: They’re the only AFC team still in the playoff hunt with six conference losses. The teams currently in the three Wild Card spots — the Ravens, Chargers, and Broncos — have four, three, and four, respectively.
The Ravens and Steelers, meanwhile, are both over 90% to get into the playoffs, and the race for the division title is advantage Steelers (65.6%).
Latest AFC North Standings
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3)
- Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
- Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)
- Cleveland Browns (3-9)
1 p.m. Games Update
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) def. Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)
4 p.m. Games Update
Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) def. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
Monday Night Football Update
Denver Broncos (8-5) def. Cleveland Browns (3-9)
How Can the Pittsburgh Steelers Win the AFC North?
The Steelers entered Week 13 as leaders of the AFC North but not as the favorites to win it. That designation belonged to the Ravens before Sunday’s games.
Why? The Steelers’ closing stretch is brutal. They entered Sunday’s game against the Bengals with the NFL’s eighth-hardest remaining schedule based on winning percentage (.574).
However, the Steelers got a big boost by gaining a full game on the Ravens, beating the Bengals while Baltimore fell to the Philadelphia Eagles. With a 1.5-game lead over the Ravens, the Steelers are up to a 65.6% chance to win the division.
Even if Pittsburgh loses the rematch to Baltimore in Week 16, Mike Tomlin’s team controls its own destiny for the division if it can sweep the other four games.
After the Week 13, the Steelers have a 95.8% to get into the playoffs and a 65.6% chance to win the division, per the PFN Playoff Predictor.
Steelers’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 14: vs. Cleveland Browns
- Week 15: at Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 16: at Baltimore Ravens
- Week 17: vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 18: vs. Cincinnati Bengals
How Can the Baltimore Ravens Win the AFC North?
The Ravens fell to the Philadelphia Eagles, putting them 1.5 games behind the Steelers entering their long-awaited Week 14 bye. Baltimore is still a virtual lock to make the playoffs at 96% overall but is down to 34.2% to win the AFC North.
What is the most important game remaining on their schedule? The Week 16 game against the Steelers. As it stands now, even a win there would only pull the Ravens within a game in the loss column of Pittsburgh.
Baltimore likely needs to run the table in its final four games — certainly a doable task — but even doing that would not come close to guaranteeing the Ravens the division title.
Ravens’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 14: BYE
- Week 15: at New York Giants
- Week 16: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Week 17: at Houston Texans
- Week 18: vs. Cleveland Browns
