Entering the 2024 NFL season, many expected the NFC South to be one of the more underwhelming divisions in the league. Sure enough, entering Week 13, every team in the division has at least five losses.
The Atlanta Falcons sit atop the division at 6-6, but they’ve struggled as of late, dropping their last three games (including a four-interception debacle by Kirk Cousins in Week 13). The 6-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers started the season 4-2, but injuries to multiple stars coincided with a brutal stretch of their schedule, which led to a four-game losing streak.
But with the NFL’s easiest remaining schedule, can the Bucs catch the Falcons? Using PFN’s Playoff Predictor, let’s examine the NFC South’s various playoff scenarios.
How Can the Atlanta Falcons Win the NFC South?
After Week 13, the Atlanta Falcons are 6-6 and now have a 41.5% chance to make the playoffs.
PFN’s model gives Atlanta a 37.9% chance of winning the NFC South, which is lower than the Buccaneers’ odds (58.8%). This might seem surprising since Atlanta owns the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay after sweeping the season series, but this takes into account the Bucs’ remaining schedule and the Falcons’ recent struggles.
Fortunately for Atlanta, it still controls its own destiny even after three straight losses. If the Falcons win out, they will win the division. The only way they will miss out on the NFC South crown is if the Buccaneers finish with more wins.
PFN’s Playoff Predictor projects that Atlanta has a 1% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Falcons’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 14: at Minnesota Vikings
- Week 15: at Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 16: vs. New York Giants
- Week 17: at Washington Commanders
- Week 18: vs. Carolina Panthers
How Can the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Win the NFC South?
After Week 13, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 6-6 and now have a 63.1% chance to make the playoffs.
Week 13 was another great week for the Bucs, who narrowly avoided an upset loss to the Carolina Panthers and pulled themselves back to .500. Since the Bucs lost both of their games against the Falcons this season, they’ll need to win more games than Atlanta to win the NFC South for a fourth year in a row.
As mentioned earlier, PFN’s model sees Tampa Bay as a clear favorite at this point, thanks to their slightly superior team strength and a significantly easier schedule. The Buccaneers have a 58.8% chance to win the division after Sunday night’s game, compared to 37.9% for the Falcons.
Tampa Bay is getting healthy at the right time (with Mike Evans, Tristan Wirfs, and Jamel Dean back) and has the NFL’s easiest remaining schedule down the stretch, which gives them a shot to dig themselves out of this hole.
PFN’s Playoff Predictor currently gives Tampa Bay a <0.1% chance to win the Super Bowl.
Buccaneers’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 14: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 15: at Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 16: at Dallas Cowboys
- Week 17: vs. Carolina Panthers
- Week 18: vs. New Orleans Saints
How Can the New Orleans Saints Win the NFC South?
Believe it or not, even after a seven-game losing streak and a coaching change, the Saints still have slim odds to win the NFC South after defeating the Falcons in Week 10 and the Cleveland Browns in Week 11. However, the home loss to the Los Angeles Rams was damaging in that regard.
After the Sunday night game in Week 13, the New Orleans Saints are 4-8 and now have a 3.5% chance to make the playoffs.
PFN’s model gives the Saints a 3.1% chance to win the NFC South, as they are only two games behind the Falcons and Buccaneers. However, even though they split the season series against Atlanta, the Falcons would still own the tiebreaker since they’ll have the better division record (even if they lose to Carolina in Week 18 and New Orleans wins out).
The Saints’ best bet is if Atlanta drops several games against tougher opponents and falls behind in the standings, and then New Orleans defeats Tampa Bay in Week 18 to finish with the same record as the Bucs.
If that happens and the Buccaneers lose to the Panthers in Week 17, the Saints would have the better divisional record and take the NFC South crown.
Saints’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 14: at New York Giants
- Week 15: vs. Washington Commanders
- Week 16: at Green Bay Packers
- Week 17: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 18: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers