Week 13 is here, and if you’re reading this, you’re in the playoffs, fighting for a chance to make the playoffs, or you’re already eliminated but are being a good league mate and ensuring you give it your all until the playoffs begin.
As we all know, there will be plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your fantasy football lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant wide receiver in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 13 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Adam Thielen | CAR (vs. TB)
Adam Thielen missed over two months and returned last week — he was targeted on Carolina’s first play. He largely disappeared after that, but when the chips were in the middle of the table, he had a late fourth-down catch and drew a DPI in the end zone.
I think that’s what we can expect moving forward from the veteran receiver. We are looking at production that comes and goes, nothing that fantasy managers can count on. Jalen Coker projects to eat into an already limited role should he return to action, further pushing Thielen down my receiver rankings.
The Bucs allow the third-highest completion percentage to the slot this season, giving Coker or Thielen a path to low-end PPR value if you squint, but I’m largely targeting upside rather than hoping for a few valuable looks as a part of this bottom-five offense.
A.J. Brown | PHI (at BAL)
A.J. Brown has a deep reception in all eight of his games this season and an end-zone look in six of those contests. In short, the Eagles have an alpha receiver and are using him as such.
The Ravens’ defense impressed on Monday night against the Chargers, but that feels like an apples-to-oranges situation. Instead of facing an offense that lacks a game-breaking receiver that lost its starting running back mid-game with the benefit of extra rest, they are now facing an offense with star playmakers, a running back pushing for MVP votes, and a rest advantage.
Brown is my top-ranked receiver for Week 13.
Alec Pierce | IND (at NE)
Anthony Richardson overshot Alec Pierce on what should have been a chunk play and had a shot at becoming an 88-yard score. Such is life when opting to party with a profile like Pierce’s.
He finished the game with just a single grab (39 yards), and you know that level of risk is a part of the deal. He does have three straight games with a 30-yard reception, but is the juice worth the squeeze?
The Colts are one of six teams yet to have their bye, and Pierce is rare in that he has appeared in every one of his team’s games this season. With that knowledge, would you be surprised to know that 112 players have more receptions than him this season?
The Patriots were picked apart by Tua Tagovailoa a week ago, but even in his dominating effort, there were zero 30-yard gains. I’m never going to rank Pierce as a viable weekly option based on his volatile role, but if you’re swinging for the fences, there are few dart throws with a clearer path to a spike week.
Amari Cooper | BUF (vs. SF)
A wrist injury has hampered Amari Cooper since being dealt to the Bills, and at this point, I need to see him produce in this offense before assuming it. Let the record show that I very much believe in his ability to do so and am not backing off of my hopes for him being a league winner at the right time.
Cooper has run 61 routes for Buffalo, and he’s turned them into just 10 targets and seven catches. We all remember Keon Coleman telling him where to run in his team debut and getting him into the end zone, but that’s been about it in terms of excitement.
If you have more guts than I do, plug Cooper in as your Flex and be on your way. I’m opting for a cautious approach, ranking him outside of my top 30, behind names like Xavier Worthy and Michael Pittman Jr.
Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (vs. HOU)
Splash plays and volume were the calling cards of Brian Thomas Jr. to open this season, but September’s success won’t pay the bills during the winter months.
- Thomas had three straight games with at least eight targets early on — he hasn’t had a single game like that since
- Thomas had two 55+ yard receptions during a three-week stretch — he doesn’t have a 30-yard grab in over a month
Accepted logic for rookie receivers is that they take time to assimilate to the speed of the professional game and offer more production as their first season wears on. That sounds great as a blanket statement, but when we are talking about an entirely different situation now than two months ago in terms of the surrounding pieces, struggles like this aren’t all that surprising.
I’m holding my dynasty shares of Thomas without question, but we are trying to win Week 13 in this article, and I don’t think there’s a path to doing that. We know the quarterback play is a problem, and facing the defense that ranks third in non-blitz sack rate isn’t exactly the recipe for fixing that.
I’d rather take the assumed quantity of looks, even if the quality is in question, of a player like Jakobi Meyers this week and until proven unwise to do so.
Calvin Ridley | TEN (at WAS)
So let me get this straight: The Titans moved on from DeAndre Hopkins, dealt with a Will Levis injury, and now they’ve unlocked the ability to consistently sustain two fantasy receivers?
Sure, why not?
This team has produced a top-20 receiver in five straight weeks, and the sum of Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine’s finishes over that stretch hasn’t once risen above 58. Ridley remains the far more projectable of the two, and that is what has earned him a high-end Flex grade for me this week against a Washington defense that blitzes at a top-seven rate but succeeds in getting pressure on those plays at a bottom-seven rate.
For me, that means single-coverage situations, and we know Levis, for better or worse, is willing to give his talented tandem a chance to win those 50/50 balls. The Westbrook-Ikhine scoring barrage feels like a house of cards to me, but this Ridley run has some staying power, and this isn’t the week I’d advise jumping off.
Cedric Tillman | CLE (at DEN)
Cedric Tillman saw four targets before being ruled out for the game with a concussion. In the small sample of Week 12, his on-field target share was his best of the season, a positive sign for those holding this stock, but I’m operating as if we will not have his services this weekend.
I found it somewhat interesting that Tillman was being used underneath to open last week (7.3 aDOT, his first game with an aDOT under 10.9 yards this season). That could increase his weekly stability via efficiency (2024: 59.2% catch rate), a net positive given the volume in which this team is throwing the ball with Jameis Winston under center.
I prefer Jerry Jeudy to Tillman, but there’s more than enough food at the table for both to eat when fully healthy.
Cooper Kupp | LAR (at NO)
Cooper Kupp is back to earning targets at an elite level with 42 over his past four games, which has unsurprisingly fielded immense success (top-20 finish in each of those contests).
Given the form of Puka Nacua and the presence of a ground game that soaks up plenty of usage inside of the five-yard line, asking Kupp to produce top-10 numbers regularly is a bit too optimistic, but there’s no reason you should hesitate clicking his name into annual leagues; if Nacua’s success drags down his ownership in DFS circles, I can assure you that I will have my shares for Sunday’s main slate.
Courtland Sutton | DEN (vs. CLE)
This Bo Nix experience has been fun for fantasy managers, and it’s been an even more enjoyable run for Courtland Sutton, the proud owner of three top-six finishes at the position over the past month.
Everything has been encouraging in terms of his profile lately, and that includes a season-high in slot usage a week ago (33.9% of his routes), a development that could give him a strong floor to complement a ceiling that we’ve had access to lately.
But could it all come crashing down this week?
The Browns are not the intimidating matchup that we expected them to be three months ago, but even in a disappointing season, they sit atop the league in pressure rate (43% of opponent dropbacks). Nix has been great, but like most rookies, when you apply pressure, the game tends to move faster than can be processed confidently.
Broncos’ passing success in Weeks 6-12, 2024:
- Nix when not pressured: Fourth in passer rating (better than Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert)
- Nix when pressured: 23rd in passer rating (worse than Cooper Rush)
I bet the Broncos’ team total to go under 24.5 points when the lines first dropped this week with that thought in mind, and that has me lower on all members of this offense than consensus. That doesn’t mean I’m benching this alpha receiver, but it does mean I have him as a low-end WR2 while I’ve seen others putting him in the WR1 conversation.
Darnell Mooney | ATL (vs. LAC)
Darnell Mooney suffered a hamstring injury in Week 11 against the Broncos before this team went on bye, but nothing coming out of Atlanta has made this injury sound like something we need to worry about.
Before the injury, Mooney had cleared 85 receiving yards in three straight games, and that’s great, but he’s operating at close to max capacity if he can’t improve his efficiency.
Outside of an outlier Week 3 loss to the Chiefs where he caught all eight of his targets, Mooney owns a 54.8% catch rate on the season, something that has the potential to sink any given week where the possession count is limited, something that could be the case when facing a Chargers team that plays at the third slowest pace offensively in the NFL.
For the first time in a while, Mooney is sitting just outside of my top 35 receivers this week and isn’t a player I’m actively trying to start if I have other similar options.
Davante Adams | NYJ (vs. SEA)
Davante Adams has as many top-30 finishes with the Raiders as the Jets this season (one). It’s safe to say that things haven’t worked out exactly how Adams (or the Jets) had in mind, but it’s not for a lack of effort.
Adams has hauled in at least six passes in three straight games. He got there in the least exciting way possible against the Colts in Week 11 (3.0 aDOT), but I’m OK with that. After three months, it’s pretty clear that this offense isn’t the high-flying unit that we had hoped it would be, so I’ll happily accept the focus being on getting the ball in his hands and take my chances.
I currently have Adams ranked as my WR21 for Week 13.
Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF (at BUF)
Is there a more difficult player to rank with confidence annually than Deebo Samuel Sr.?
- 2021: 37.6% production over expectations
- 2022: 13.7% production under expectations
- 2023: 35.2% production over expectations
- 2024: 10.2% production under expectations
Samuel’s rushing equity has all but dried up since Christian McCaffrey made his season debut three weeks ago, and we have a downward-trending ability to earn targets that we need to consider. His on-field target share stood at 25.5% in 2021, a rate that fell to 25.1% in 2022, again to 23.4% in 2023, and currently sits at 20.5%.
He remains nearly impossible to tackle in space, so the fact that the Bills allow the 10th most red-zone trips per game opens up some scoring potential, but I worry more about the floor than I idealize the ceiling.
I prefer Jauan Jennings’ tighter range of outcomes in this offense and have Samuel labeled as a Flex play this weekend.
Demarcus Robinson | LAR (at NO)
Demarcus Robinson found paydirt again on Sunday, giving him more scores than Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and A.J. Brown through 12 weeks this season. The end-of-the-day fantasy point totals have been viable at times this season, but given that he has failed to clear seven expected PPR points in six of his past nine games, there’s really not enough in this profile to have me interested.
Instead of focusing on the touchdown, I’d encourage you to look at the fact that his opportunity count has declined in three straight games and that he has just one game with over 50 yards on the season.
In addition to a weak role, Robinson was arrested on a drunk driving charge Monday morning for driving “in excess” of 100 miles per hour. If history has taught us anything, a delayed suspension is the most likely outcome, so he will likely be active this weekend, but he’s not close to my radar against the third-best pass defense when it comes to touchdown rate.
DeMario Douglas | NE (vs. IND)
DeMario Douglas has just one top-25 finish on his 2024 resume and Week 12 was a good reminder of just how sideways an offense led by a volatile rookie can go. New England had 49 passing yards in the first half of the loss to the Dolphins and not a single Patriot had multiple receptions over the first 30 minutes.
At the end of the day, Douglas was able to get you to double-digit PPR points last week (five catches for 62 yards) and that’s all you’re asking for from him. The Colts allow the highest slot completion percentage through 12 weeks (79%) and that gives me confidence that we get exactly what we expect from Douglas.
The ceiling is only so high, but there is comfort in stability, and over the course of 60 minutes, I think that’s enough to Flex Douglas if you’re labeled as a favorite.
DeVonta Smith| PHI (at BAL)
A hamstring injury resulted in DeVonta Smith’s second DNP of the season (first three seasons: one DNP). It’s been an up-and-down season for Philadelphia’s WR2, posting three games with over 75 receiving yards and a touchdown, but also three games with under 30 receiving yards.
I’m not a doctor and it seems that no one in the NFL can solve these hamstring injuries, but has anyone tried skipping the Icey Hot and simply applying a touch of this Baltimore Ravens secondary on short rest?
Smith has scored at least 14.9 PPR points in six of his seven highest aDOT games this season and it stands to reason that, if healthy, he’ll be used as a field stretcher. This is certainly a situation to monitor as the week progresses as Smith is the type of receiver that is at risk of being limited in a significant way by a hamstring injury. Should he be cleared without concern, he’ll move into my WR2 tier for Week 13.
Diontae Johnson | BAL (vs. PHI)
The NFL told us what they thought of Diontae Johnson with his asking price at the trade deadline, and we’ve seen that price be justified.
Johnson has been with the Ravens for a month now, and the only thing lower than his route count across those four games (19) is his yardage total (six). It’s clear that Rashod Bateman remains the WR2 in this offense, and with two viable tight ends, not to mention a robust run game, there’s just not a path for Johnson to be on the field regularly, let alone produce numbers that matter for us.
DK Metcalf | SEA (at NYJ)
DK Metcalf’s role in his two games back has looked just like the one he left, and that’s a good thing. A player with this athletic profile carries extreme upside into any matchup.
That said, I do worry about his potential to access that with Jaxon Smith-Njigba amid his breakout. Metcalf was a WR1 in both Week 2 and Week 3, but he has just one top-25 performance since. I have him ranked safely in the middle of those outcomes, checking in as a middling WR2 this week and moving forward.
The Jets have allowed the fourth-lowest red-zone completion percentage this season (43.2%), further dimming the star of Metcalf for Week 13. You’re still playing him in all formats, but he now resides in the Courtland Sutton tier as opposed to the Puka Nacua one.
Drake London | ATL (vs. LAC)
Drake London has seen six end-zone targets over his past six contests and has established himself as a featured option in scoring situations. Last season, Atlanta’s WR1 was targeted on 28.1% of his red-zone routes. That’s a respectable rate, but it’s nearly doubled under Kirk Cousins (45.7%), and that brings in an elite ceiling case.
The Falcons have made it clear that they want to scheme up their top pass catcher, so look for him to be heavily involved this week with Atlanta coming off their bye and the Chargers on a short week.
The Chargers are the best YAC defense in the league, but they rank 25th in passer rating allowed against deep passes — London could be used as a vertical threat, and while that introduces a wider range of outcomes, I’m willing to bet on his talent/target combination which lands him inside of my top 20.
Elijah Moore | CLE (at DEN)
Elijah Moore disappointed on Thursday night (5.1 PPR points) and was hardly used in the slot, something that was previously his calling card.
- Week 6 at Philadelphia Eagles: 71.4% slot rate
- Week 7 vs. Cincinnati Bengals: 69.4%
- Week 8 vs. Baltimore Ravens: 66%
- Week 9 vs. Los Angeles Chargers: 67.8%
- Week 11 at New Orleans Saints: 67.3%
- Week 12 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: 30.8%
Was this the result of the wintery weather? Was it a reaction to the Cedric Tillman concussion? I tend to think this usage will be an outlier as opposed to the beginning of a pattern, and that keeps me optimistic. I don’t love the idea if it means he’s competing for perimeter looks with Jerry Jeudy/Tillman, but if the slot role returns, he can be a viable PPR option on a weekly basis.
In terms of completion percentage against, Denver is more vulnerable in the slot and that is why I think PPR managers can get away with Flexing Moore this week, even if the upside isn’t all that impressive.
Garrett Wilson | NYJ (vs. SEA)
This Jets offense has gone conservative, putting Garrett Wilson in a tough spot given that his aDOT has been higher than Davante Adams’ in four of their six games played together.
New York has shown little desire to stretch the field, and I can’t imagine that changes against a Seahawks defense that is rarely challenged downfield (fifth-fewest deep pass attempts against) and even more rarely is vulnerable in such spots (fifth-highest interception rate on those throws).
Wilson has turned 14 targets into just 59 yards over New York’s past two games, and with rumors swirling about Aaron Rodgers’ season potentially coming to an end earlier than expected, there’s more risk in this profile despite the raw talent that is obvious.
I’m ranking him as a middling Flex option, alongside other big-name receivers with floor concerns (Marvin Harrison JR. and Amari Cooper, to name a pair). It’s Xavier Worthy week for me, and I have the rookie burner two spots ahead of Wilson at this moment in time.
George Pickens | PIT (at CIN)
After clearing 16 PPR points in three of four games, George Pickens fell flat in the elements against the Browns on Thursday night, turning seven targets into just 8.8 points.
I’m not worried.
The Steelers continued to take shots to him (Week 12: 20.6 aDOT) and that is where he is going to produce when not playing in a borderline blizzard. We saw him haul in one of those deep passes (31-yard juggling reception) and if there isn’t some sort of miscommunication and/or an off-target throw in the end zone, fantasy managers would have left last week feeling very different.
How many times do you think a receiver has cleared 17 PPR points against the Bengals this season?
That number sits at 11 through 11 games. That number is enough to play Pickens with confidence without context, but let’s highlight some of the names on that list.
- Diontae Johnson (Week 4): 21.3 PPR points
- Tylan Wallace (Week 10): 20.5
- Xavier Legette (Week 4): 19.6
- Cedric Tillman (Week 7): 18.1
- Rashod Bateman (Week 10): 17.4
It hasn’t just been the upper tier of receivers that have taken full advantage of this vulnerable secondary – anyone on the field has a chance. Russell Wilson has made it clear that he trusts Pickens in a major way and that gives him the potential to return WR1 value this weekend.
Jalen Coker | CAR (vs. TB)
Jalen Coker was a late addition to the injury report last week and ended up sitting out with a quad injury. He left the lineup the same week that Adam Thielen (hamstring) returned, thus muddying the situation for this rookie to produce if/when he is deemed healthy.
I think we’ve seen enough from the Holy Cross product to pencil him in as a part of the rebuild in Carolina, but there’s no need to hold onto him in redraft formats for the stretch run.
Jalen McMillan | TB (at CAR)
Jalen McMillan led the Buccaneers’ receivers in routes run last week with 22, but he managed to earn just two looks (one catch for 11 yards). The rookie’s role was limited with both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans succeeding early in the season, but even with various injuries, he’s yet to progress in a meaningful way.
Tampa Bay has committed to McMillan and Sterling Shepard alongside Evans in their primary three-receiver sets, but we don’t get points for snaps played, and up to this point, it’s clear that he’s not quite ready to win at the professional level (yet to clear 35 receiving yards in a game).
The post-hype sleeper potential will be there for next season, but as far as 2024 is concerned, you can look elsewhere for upside.
Ja’Marr Chase | CIN (vs. PIT)
The last time we had the pleasure of watching Ja’Marr Chase ball, he was busy scoring twice against the Chargers, his fourth multi-TD reception game of this season. In the history of this beautiful game, only three times has a player under the age of 25 had more such games in a single season:
- Gary Collins (1963)
- John Jefferson (1978)
- Rob Gronkowski (2011)
For the season, Chase has produced 38.1% over expectations and has seen the end zone in five straight games. In previous seasons, I’d worry about a floor performance against an elite Steelers defense that is rarely beaten down the field (third lowest opponent passer rating on bombs through 12 weeks), but Chase’s aDOT is 18.3% lower than Tee Higgins’ this season.
The Bengals offense operates with essentially no room for error due to the limitations of their defense, and that has elevated Chase from Tier 1 to WR1 in my weekly rankings.
Jauan Jennings | SF (at BUF)
The Brandon Allen version of this offense was all sorts of underwhelming against the Packers last weekend, but that didn’t stop Jauan Jennings from impacting the game by leading the team in targets (seven).
That’s a nice note to present, but it’s kind of like saying you got the best candy when trick-or-treating at the dentist’s office. Is it really that impactful?
The Bills allow the fourth-highest completion rate to the slot (75%) and that has me confident that Jennings can continue to be efficient regardless of who is under center. I have Jennings hovering in the middle of my Flex ranks at the moment — should we get confirmation that Brock Purdy will return, he’ll carry a WR2 status into Thanksgiving, ranking just ahead of the slot man on the other side of the field last week in Jayden Reed.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA (at NYJ)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is one of five receivers to score 19 PPR points in three straight games this season (others: A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Malik Nabers). That’s some pretty good company to keep, and with an expanding route tree (the big play last week came on a beautiful bubble screen), I see no reason to think that the upward trajectory slows.
When it comes to this specific matchup, there’s a strong case to be made for JSN to be considered the top pass catcher in this offense. The Jets rank second in the league in pressure rate through 12 weeks, and …
When Geno Smith is pressured, 2024:
- Smith-Njigba: 1.8 points per target
- DK Metcalf: 1.2 points per target
When Smith is not pressured, 2024:
- Smith-Njigba: 1.8 points per target
- Metcalf: 2.1 points per target
I have both ranked as WR2s that you can feel great about starting this week and for the remainder of 2024 (and beyond).
Jerry Jeudy | CLE (at DEN)
Jerry Jeudy has established himself as the most consistent Cleveland receiver as he has cleared 70 receiving yards in all four Jameis Winston starts, averaging 116 air yards per game in the process.
Does this mean he draws Patrick Surtain this week? Likely, but if there’s a corner in this league who scares Winston from throwing where he is most comfortable, I’ve yet to find him. The matchup comes with an underwhelming implied point total for the Browns, but the usage is strong enough to Flex Jeudy, whose on-field target share has increased in each game during the Winston era.
Jordan Addison | MIN (vs. ARI)
Jordan Addison scored in three of four November games, posting top-25 finishes at the position in all three of those instances. On Sunday, he made a falling 45-yard grab (a drive he’d eventually finish with a touchdown) and then showcased elite balance on a 69-yard gain in which he bounced off tacklers.
I’d argue that Week 12’s performance was very much a ceiling outcome and not something that you can count on. That said, I don’t think this is the last time that defenses allocate most of their resources toward Justin Jefferson, and that opens up Addison for usable weeks.
In this matchup specifically, I think we see completely different usage, thus resulting in a narrower range of outcomes. This season, Addison’s aDOT dips by 21.3% when Sam Darnold is not pressured, and with this being the fourth-worst defense in terms of creating pressure, I’m projecting a more conservative route.
That thought process talks me out of him repeating his 8-162-1 stat line from last week, but if we are looking at six to nine looks that are more efficient, starting him as a low-end PPR Flex is a justifiable move.
Josh Downs | IND (at NE)
Josh Downs has reached 12 PPR points in each of his past four healthy games, but a shoulder injury resulted in an early exit last weekend, and he is poised to miss the third game of the year.
Even with all of the moving pieces in Indianapolis this season, the second-year receiver has produced 1% over expectation, no minor accomplishment with our “expected points” metric assuming league-average QB play, something that the Colts certainly have not had.
When he returns to the mix, assuming full health, Downs will be my highest-ranked receiver on this team. In the meantime, his very questionable status results in a nice spike in value for Michael Pittman Jr.
Josh Reynolds, DEN (vs. CLE)
Josh Reynolds (finger) was activated from injured reserve two weeks ago and has been practicing, but he was ultimately inactive for Week 12. The surprise Broncos are a better team now than the one Reynolds left injured in Week 5, but Denver has yet to unlock the secondary pass-catcher role next to Courtland Sutton.
Broncos receiving yardage leaders, 2024:
- Courtland Sutton: 744 receiving yards (T-9th in the NFL)
- Devaughn Vele: 361 (89th)
- Lil’Jordan Humphrey: 267 (123rd)
- Javonte Williams: 256 (129th)
- Josh Reynolds: 183 (166th)
Could Reynolds be the answer to that question? Do the Broncos need to answer this question?
This is a wait-and-see situation in my eyes. I like Reynolds to fill that role, but with Denver yet to go on bye, you’d be adding Reynolds now to potentially cut him ahead of Week 14 without ever having played him.
I’ll be tracking all the needed rates, so check back weekly for an update — but at the moment, I’m leaving Reynolds on waiver wires.
Joshua Palmer | LAC (at ATL)
Joshua Palmer earned a season-high eight targets on Sunday night against the Ravens, but you’d never know it by looking at your fantasy box score (6.8 PPR points; 2024 average: 6.9). Despite pacing the NFL in air yards by 46 last week, it wasn’t enough to unlock him, even in a strong matchup against a vulnerable secondary.
The Falcons are a top-eight defense against the deep pass in terms of pass attempts allowed and yards per completion, leaving me out of the Palmer business this week. Could he offer spike potential against the Buccaneers (Week 15) or Patriots (Week 17)? It’s within the range of outcomes, and that sort of upside is enough for me to roster him, even if there’s not a situation in which I’m starting him this weekend.
Justin Jefferson | MIN (vs. ARI)
Justin Jefferson didn’t have a catch through the first 18 minutes on Sunday, but this is a good reminder that these are human beings, not just names on a sheet of paper. On one hand, we have Malik Nabers’ frustration bubbling over in a losing spot; on the other, we have Minnesota’s star:
Justin Jefferson is a team player 😅 pic.twitter.com/E9wDObwobD
— ESPN Fantasy Sports (@ESPNFantasy) November 25, 2024
I’m not sweating the down weeks (two catches for 27 yards), but Week 15’s rematch with the Bears could be a problem. We will get there when we get there (even with the script working as it did last week, he drew a 35-yard penalty that could be a play that adds 10+ points to his bottom line if not committed), but you’re not getting cute here.
For what it’s worth, I do have Jefferson ranked as one of the worst per-dollar DFS options this week among those with high-end price tags. I don’t have volume concerns, but Sam Darnold is trending in the wrong direction despite the team’s success, and that has resulted in Jefferson producing 29.8% below expectations over the past three weeks.
Kendrick Bourne | NE (vs. IND)
Kendrick Bourne managed just 30 yards on 25 routes last weekend in Miami, and with just one game of 50 air yards this year, we are looking at a player who needs to score to pay off.
If you’re in a spot where you’re considering Flexing a TD-dependant player on a team with an implied total hovering around 20 points in an offense led by a rookie signal caller — well, if that’s the case, I’d recommend stumbling upon this content earlier next season
I’m not making it a priority to start any Patriot this week, and with him ranked as my third favorite receiver on this team, he’s not in the zip code of mattering.
Keon Coleman | BUF (vs. SF)
I worry that, at this point in the season, the idea of Keon Coleman is more valuable than the on-field product. The rookie has been battling a wrist injury for a month now, but even if he returns this week, what is the upside?
Coleman has earned more than five targets in just two games this season, and his role on the perimeter (just 5.2% of his routes have come in the slot) next to Amari Cooper isn’t how I expect Buffalo to attack San Francisco. Through 12 weeks, the 49ers surrendered just 6.1 yards per throw to the outside, the lowest rate in the NFL.
I’m not cutting ties with Coleman just for the sake of doing it, but as long as Cooper is healthy, I don’t think he’s a must-roster player.
Khalil Shakir | BUF (vs. SF)
If you want to see what a rich man’s version of Wan’Dale Robinson looks like, it’s Khalil Shakir. With stability under center, his route-running prowess has been rewarded with an on-field target share north of 24% in five straight games (at least six receptions in each of those contests).
He’s never going to offer massive per-target upside, but as the game’s most efficient receiver, there’s weekly value to lean into. You’d probably be surprised to know that Shakir has reeled in a 20-yard reception in seven of his past nine games, giving him access to a ceiling that other chain movers simply don’t have.
The 49ers cough up 8.2 yards per slot pass attempt this year, ranking them below the league average and giving me a reason to be ranking Shakir as a WR2 in PPR formats.
Ladd McConkey | LAC (at ATL)
Since 2010, three times has a rookie not drafted in the first round caught at least five passes in seven of his first 11 games – Michael Thomas, Puka Nacua, and Ladd McConkey. His ability to shake free while also making exceptional contested catches looks sticky.
The only thing missing from this profile is valuable looks, but I’m tempted to chalk that up to weird variance than anything given his skill set. We’ve gone four straight weeks without McConkey seeing a red zone target, something that is illogical for a player with a 73.7% catch rate on balls thrown five or fewer yards downfield.
The floor is enough to justify your confidence and a ceiling outcome is possible with Atlanta ranking 28th in opponent slot completion percentage (74.6%).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling | NO (vs. LAR)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has 101 regular season games on his NFL resume. This is just the second time he’s cleared 15 PPR fantasy points in consecutive games despite spending his career, before these three games with the Saints, playing with Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen. The only other instance came in Weeks 9-10 of the 2020 season — his next three game totals:
- 90 routes
- Eight targets
- Three catches
- 8.5 PPR fantasy points
The word “regression” doesn’t do this profile justice. The tricky part, of course, is settling on when the inevitable cliff comes. MVS has a 65-yard catch in consecutive games and the last player to do that in three straight was Tyreek Hill in 2018 with the Chiefs. I think it’s safe to say that Valdes-Scantling is not in that tier of receiver. But on the bright side, his role is trending in the right direction.
Valdes-Scantling’s snap shares with the Saints:
- Week 9 at Carolina Panthers: 43.2%
- Week 10 vs. Atlanta Falcons: 53.8%
- Week 11 vs. Cleveland Browns: 65.5%
That said, this Rams defense excels at creating pressure, and it doesn’t take a data scientist to tell you that such a matchup makes those deep routes difficult to connect on. He gets the benefit of playing on turf, which can amplify his straight-line speed, but without the benefit of any teams being on a bye this week, the odds of you having four receivers that I rank more favorably are high.
Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI (at MIN)
Marvin Harrison Jr. has finished just two weeks as a top-45 receiver since September, limitations that have to have his managers scrambling at this point. Are better days ahead?
Maybe, but it’s hard to look at the profile and be overly optimistic. He’s been held to single-digit expected points in three straight and hasn’t reached a dozen points in the expected category since Week 3.
There is an upside case to make for a high-pedigree receiver who has seen at least three deep targets in three of his past four games; against an aggressive Vikings defense, he could always victimize single coverage at the right time. I’m not comfortable betting on it as anything more than a Flex play this week against the third-best per-possession defense in the NFL.
Michael Pittman Jr. | IND (at NE)
With Josh Downs (shoulder) very much on the iffy side of questionable and Michael Pittman Jr. entering this game with 15 targets (54 routes) in the two games since Anthony Richardson stepped back into the starting lineup, it is very possible that this veteran receiver is set to make a late-season run that rewards you for your loyalty on him during this bumpy season.
When dealing with a sporadic quarterback, I want two boxes checked, and they aren’t too complicated: I want easy button targets and I want the team to script out looks. This season, when Richardson is under center, Downs and Pittman have accounted for 65% of his first-quarter completions and 66% of his slot targets.
I’m not saying Pittman absorbs all of Downs’ looks, but he’s certainly the favorite to see an uptick in usage. The Patriots are one of three defenses yet to intercept a pass thrown to the slot this season, giving Richardson the green light to pepper that part of the field.
There’s always a level of risk to consider, and that keeps Pittman as more of a Flex than a WR2 this week for me, but I think you’re playing him in most spots. I have him ranked ahead of big names like Garrett Wilson and DeAndre Hopkins.
Michael Wilson | ARI (vs. NYJ)
Michael Wilson continues to be put in a position to succeed with an end-zone target in three of his past four games, but the days of a meaningful role are not upon us yet. The second-year receiver has just 12.8 expected PPR points over the past three games on 75 routes run, a lack of efficacy that should have him sitting on waiver wires in most formats.
Is he a post-hype sleeper in 2025? You could sell me on it. How about as someone I’m leaving the light on for 2024? Nope.
Mike Evans | TB (at CAR)
Mike Evans was back on the field for the Bucs and immediately led the team in targets (six) and receiving yards (68) in the one-sided win over the Giants.
Was there some hesitation from Tampa Bay to fully unleash him? He posted a 10.8 aDOT in his return after missing over a month (four games prior: 13.8), something that I have on my notepad as something to watch, but not something that I’m yet reacting to, understanding that he could be ramping up to the role we’ve come to know and love.
This is as good a spot as any for the Bucs to return their WR1 to his field-stretching role – the Panthers rank 26th or worst against the deep pass in terms of completion percentage, yards per attempt, and touchdown rate.
Sportsbooks are projecting Tampa Bay for north of 25 points in this game. I don’t trust any other pass catcher in this offense, so Evans slots in as a WR1 in my Week 13 rankings.
Mike Williams | PIT (at CIN)
On paper, Mike Williams makes a lot of sense for this offense, and maybe he will acclimate with time. But we are in the business of building a winning roster for Week 13. Despite the plus matchup, it’s impossible to call Flexing Williams anything more than a prayer.
Williams’ snap shares with Pittsburgh:
- Week 10 at Washington Commanders: 12%
- Week 11 vs. Baltimore Ravens: 31.1%
- Week 12 at Cleveland Browns: 28.4%
He’s seen one target as a Steeler, and of course, it was a 32-yard score. Pittsburgh was playing the long game when they acquired the deep threat, and we don’t have that luxury right now. Williams can be stashed in deep roster situations, but if you’re chasing a playoff berth, he’s not the type of player that needs to remain rostered.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | TEN (at WAS)
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine saw five targets against the Texans, and the rules of 2024 state that he has to score when that is the case.
I kid. Sort of. He is literally scoring once every five targets this season and has found paydirt in six of the seven games this season in which he’s seen a target. Of course, this rate is unsustainable and I’m happy to keep fading a secondary weapon in a Will Levis-led offense.
I don’t believe in momentum. I look to make sense of everything in my life, not just fantasy football. I can’t explain what is going on with Westbrook-Ikhine and I tend to avoid what I can’t understand. If you want to chase good vibes, go for it. I won’t be joining you (one game with more than three catches this season).
Nico Collins | HOU (at JAX)
That’s consecutive weeks with a long touchdown called back (a 33-yarder last week and a 77-yarder to kick off Week 11) for Nico Collins, a run of poor luck that his fantasy managers didn’t need after treading water without their WR1 for five games.
Even with those spike plays wiped off the board, Collins has produced 9.3% over expectations since his return to action, the five-yard touchdown in traffic against the Titans being another example of how well-rounded Houston’s star is.
The big plays are going nowhere due to the physical gifts and elite YAC abilities, something we’ve seen on full display recently via those two called-back scores. There are six receivers who I think have a chance to lead the position in points per game the rest of the way and Collins is a part of that list.
Noah Brown | WAS (vs. TEN)
Noah Brown has quietly seen at least six targets in four of five games, a run that all started with the Hail Mary catch against the Bears. There is enough opportunity upside to chase (four games this season with an on-field target share of at least 25%) when it comes to building out a roster full of options, but asking him to return Flex value in this matchup with all 32 teams in action is a hurdle too high for me.
Brown has seen 28.1% of his receptions come downfield this season, making a top-seven defense in terms of defending the deep ball by both completion percentage and yards per attempt a tough sell.
I’ve added him to the backend of a few playoff-bound rosters, targeting the lack of stability behind Terry McLaurin as a way to have access to the upside without much resistance. The Week 14 bye makes Brown a no-go for fantasy teams that need every ounce of production over the next few weeks to qualify for the postseason, but if you’re in a good spot, I’m green-lighting this addition.
Parker Washington | JAX (vs. HOU)
The Jaguars started Parker Washington in Week 9 and left him on the field for 84.3% of the snaps in that loss to the Eagles, but they’ve dialed back his role since (54.4% snap share) and he’s managed just one reception on those 36 routes.
The idea of capitalizing on the Christian Kirk injury was sound, but it didn’t work out and you owe it to your roster to continue cycling through options to fill out the back end of your roster. It’s easy to ignore your reserves until you need them, but successful fantasy managers are consistently tweaking things in an effort to optimize their roster. In that vein, move on from Washington for a player either attached to a more potent offense or one with a more clear path to volume.
If you’re really trying to get creative for a DFS lineup, it’s worth noting that the Texans allow a touchdown on a league-high 13.5% of slot passes.
Puka Nacua | LAR (at NO)
Puka Nacua was ejected against the Seahawks for throwing a “punch.” If you extend his last four full games for a full season – 136 catches for 1,887 yards. We are looking at a special receiver that is playing alongside maybe the greatest WR elevator of this generation. There’s no reason to think that Nacua’s production dips in the slightest this week or moving forward.
We learn more year-over-year about the value of condensed offenses, something that has played out in spades recently. Here are the five receivers who have scored at least 18 points in each of their past two games:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA)
- Nacua (LAR)
- Cooper Kupp (LAR)
- Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)
- Tee Higgins (CIN)
You’re playing Nacua, and everyone else on that list, with the utmost confidence for this week, the rest of this season, and for the foreseeable future.
Quentin Johnston | LAC (at ATL)
With 59 air yards and a crossing route that was lining up for a big gain, the Chargers put Quentin Johnston in a spot to succeed last week. That is good to see, obviously, but, I’m told, that the ability to catch the ball is critical to the career path he has chosen and he simply couldn’t do that and was shut out as a result.
From a process standpoint, his involvement in an upward-trending offense should be encouraging. However, with four catches on 88 routes (15 targets) over the past three weeks, if you’re Flexing Johnston, you’re hoping more than projecting.
Is he the one who jumps on a Falcons defense that is allowing a league-high 8.5% of perimeter targets to result in scores? It’s possible. I’m not banking on it, but you come here for a well-rounded profile, so that needs to be mentioned – if you’re in a pinch, there is some hope based on math and fading the eye test.
Rashod Bateman | BAL (vs. PHI)
Rashod Bateman offered a highlight play on Monday night, overcoming defensive pass interference to haul in a 40-yard touchdown pass, but that was essentially all we heard from him during the victory.
The fact that Lamar Jackson has thrown a deep touchdown pass in four straight games (the second-longest streak of his career) is encouraging enough to keep Bateman on your radar down the stretch as you could find yourself in point-chasing mode, but that doesn’t mean he needs to be rostered at this moment in time.
The Eagles boast a top-seven pass defense in terms of touchdown rate, passer rating, and yards per attempt, making them a less-than-ideal matchup the week before Baltimore heads on bye. If you want access to the big-play threat who has failed to catch more than three passes in four of his past five games, you’re wise to give it two weeks and not burn a roster spot in the meantime.
Ricky Pearsall | SF (at BUF)
For a minute, it looked like the duel for the WR2 role in this offense was going to be competitive between Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings, but that is no longer the case. The rookie has earned just two targets (zero receptions) on his 44 routes over the past two weeks and there are no signs of production looming, even if Brock Purdy is back under center.
With four players now clearly ahead of him in this passing game, there is no reason to keep the light on for Pearsall. I’m far more likely to target offenses in Green Bay or Carolina that have a less solidified hierarchy when it comes to opportunity count and would suggest you do the same.
Tank Dell | HOU (at JAX)
Tank Dell has scored 8.3-10.2 PPR points in three straight games and I worry that there is more downward trajectory than reason for optimism.
With Nico Collins operating at close to full strength, Dell was able to carve out only a 14.3% on-field target share, something that creates a low floor and could be predictive given that he was at a sub-15.5% in Weeks 2-3, the last time we saw Collins used as a true WR1.
On Sunday, his aDOT was 21.0 yards, further widening the range of potential outcomes. There are going to be weeks where Dell wins vertically like he did in the first half last week for a 39-yard gain. Sometimes, those looks may take place in the end zone. You do, however, need to be aware of the downside that comes with such a role (Weeks 2-3: 59 yards and zero touchdowns on 72 routes).
The Jaguars allow the second most yards per deep pass this season and that has Dell firmly in my Flex rankings, something that might not be the case long-term.
Tee Higgins | CIN (vs. PIT)
How good is Tee Higgins?
Ja’Marr Chase is a walking highlight reel, and that results in Higgins’ statistical star not shining quite as bright as it should. His on-field target share is 27.4% this season, 4.6 percentage points ahead of his previous career high and a level of involvement that has allowed him to record four straight games with over 75 receiving yards (four touchdowns in those games).
The target volume is one thing and the 116 air yards per game is another (20 more than any other season of his career). I don’t mean to put undo pressure on Cincinnati’s tandem, but that’s exactly what I’m going to do.
2004 Marvin Harrison Sr. and Reggie Wayne:
- 26.5% PPR production over expectation
- 2.24 PPR points per target
- 16.6% of receptions were touchdowns
2024 Chase and Higgins:
- 28.4% PPR production over expectation
- 2.29 PPR points per target
- 14.4% of receptions were touchdowns
Higgins’ name may not come with the same fanfare as that of Chase — it should. Both receivers are matchup-proof options that are more than capable of putting your fantasy team on their shoulders for the remainder of the season.
Terry McLaurin | WAS (vs. TEN)
Life comes at you fast. Terry McLaurin had one catch for six yards in the first half last week, giving him a total of 16 yards during a six-quarter drought.
Right as you were ready to curse McLaurin out for a couple of poor weeks after a few strong months, the Cowboys lost all discipline and he was streaking down the right sideline for an 86-yard touchdown in one of the more chaotic finishes of the season.
The singular play is obviously an outlier, but it wasn’t an accident that Jayden Daniels went McLaurin’s direction in need of a miracle – that trust holds significant value. The Titans’ defense has been stout this season, but it’s 2024 and you can only limit production through the air to such a degree.
Through 12 weeks, 15 times has a receiver reached 10 PPR fantasy points against Tennessee with three WRs clearing 14 points against them over the past two weeks.
The ceiling may not be elite, but the floor is appealing enough to start McLaurin in all formats – he has 397 more receiving yards than any other Commanders receiver this season.
Tyler Lockett | SEA (at NYJ)
The Seahawks have told us what they think about the target hierarchy in their offense and it’s pretty clear that Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf are the featured assets with nobody else even remotely close to viable.
Tyler Lockett has put together a great career, but we are in the business of predicting the future, not paying respects to the past. The veteran receiver didn’t earn five targets in a game during November and hasn’t reached 12 expected points in consecutive games since September.
I’d rather roll the dice weekly on any of the receivers in Carolina, opting to embrace the unknown as opposed to ignoring the clear signs of a player being phased out of the offense.
Xavier Legette | CAR (vs. TB)
Did you know that Xavier Legette and David Moore have the same on-field target share this season?
My guess is no, and yet, one has been kicking around fantasy rosters while the other, before last week, you may not have known what team he was on. The rookie has some splash-play ability (a 34-yard catch on the first drive last week and four straight games with a reception of 23+ yards), but he’s not earning opportunities at nearly a high enough level to overcome the below-average QB play that Carolina runs out there.
I maintain my thought that this Panthers offense will be one that I’m looking at in the later stages of drafts this summer, but that’s a long-term thought that we will discuss at a later date. For right now, Legette doesn’t deserve lineup consideration (his next 70-yard game will be his first).
Zay Flowers | BAL (vs. PHI)
Is it possible that we are 12 weeks into this season and I’ve yet to truly nail a Zay Flowers projection?
I think it is. He’s a tough receiver to figure out on a weekly basis (six games under 40 receiving yards but also four games with over 110), but from a process standpoint, I think you’re plugging him in as a low-end WR2 and taking your chances.
Since Week 8, only three qualified receivers have a 26% on-field target share while also producing 20% over PPR expectations, and Flowers is on that list (if you’re interested, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Courtland Sutton are the other two).
The Eagles’ defense is one that I think caps Flowers’ upside (fifth-ranked red-zone defense), but I’m viewing the floor as what we saw last week (five catches for 62 yards). That’s enough to justify your faith. Philadelphia allows the eighth-most yards per catch after the reception on slot passes this year, a scab that the Ravens could pick at with their WR1.