The Kansas City Chiefs won yet another one-score game in Week 13 as they beat the Las Vegas Raiders 19-17. The Raiders had driven within field goal range, only for a botched snap to result in a fumble and a Chiefs recovery. This now marks 14 one-score games in a row that the Chiefs have won.
According to Pro Football Network’s luck metric, the Chiefs are the luckiest team in the NFL right now. Their 11-1 record is 3.21 wins above their projected win-loss record based on their metrics in games this season.
Only two of their wins have been graded as “lucky” by the system, which means their win projection was below 45%. However, they have also won two games in which their win projection was just 51%.
The two games that graded as “lucky” were the Black Friday win over the Raiders and the Week 10 win over the Denver Broncos. Interestingly, both of those games ended with the Chiefs’ opponent within field goal range only to either have their kick blocked or a bizarre turnover cost them the game.
What Is the ‘Pro Football Network Luck Metric’?
The Pro Football Network luck metric has shown a good level of distinction in projecting results over the past six seasons (back to 2019). This is achieved by summating a team’s Offense+ and Defense+ value for an individual game. In our database, teams with a summated total of 106 or more win games 91.4% or more of the time, while teams with a summated total of 96 or less win games just 29.3% or less of the time.
There is then a sliding scale between those two numbers, where games can be deemed to be in the balance. However, a summated score over 100 projects a team should win a game 51.2% of the time or more. In the game against Denver, Kansas City’s summated total was 88.6 (5.9% win probability), and it was 94.9 against Kansas City (29.3% win probability).
The three games in which the Chiefs were projected to win 51% of the time were:
- Week 2 vs. Cincinnati Bengals (Won 26-25)
- Week 9 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Won 30-24)
- Week 11 at Buffalo Bills (Lost 30-21)
In K.C.’s two wins under these conditions, they needed a last-second kick from Harrison Butker in Week 2 and overtime against the Buccaneers to secure victory. However, we saw that luck somewhat start to even out in the Bills game, where they were projected essentially evenly with the Bills and lost by nine points.
Can the Close Wins Continue?
It is worth stating that winning close games consistently is a skill to be applauded. The Chiefs have an incredible ability to remain calm in all three phases. They rarely beat themselves with silly mistakes, as we saw other teams do on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. That is a huge credit to Andy Reid and his coaching staff.
The question for the Chiefs will become whether they can sustain this ability to win close games when they play the very best teams in the league. Their schedule in 2024 ranks as the third easiest in the league by PFN’s strength of schedule metric, suggesting they have not been tested on a consistent basis this season.
That will surely change as we enter the playoffs. However, the Chiefs are still in the driving seat for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. As we just saw in the Chiefs-Raiders game, Arrowhead holds a legitimate home-field advantage, and no one will want to have to face Kansas City in that stadium.
For further context, here is the list of the top 10 “luckiest” and “unluckiest” teams in the NFL
Luckiest:
- Kansas City Chiefs: +3.21
- Pittsburgh Steelers: +2.52
- Buffalo Bills: +1.85
- Indianapolis Colts: +1.34
- Atlanta Falcons: +1.28
- Houston Texans: +1.22
- Detroit Lions: +1.22
- Minnesota Vikings: +1.05
- Los Angeles Chargers: + 1.04
- Green Bay Packers: +0.97
Unluckiest:
- New York Jets: -2.55
- New York Giants: -2.07
- Jacksonville Jaguars: -1.98
- Miami Dolphins: -1.89
- Baltimore Ravens: -1.36
- Tennessee Titans: -1.28
- Chicago Bears: -1.18
- Denver Broncos: -1.09
- Las Vegas Raiders: -0.91
- San Francisco 49ers: -0.90
Despite being graded as the luckiest team by our metric, the Chiefs are projected to have had 7.79 wins this season, which is third in the AFC behind the Ravens (9.36) and Broncos (8.09).
In the whole NFL, they would sit seventh, with the Lions (9.78), Philadelphia Eagles (8.38), Packers (8.09), and Vikings (7.95) outranking them.
Those numbers show that the Chiefs are still a good football team, just maybe not as good as their record shows right now.