One of the popular breakout picks of 2024, the Houston Texans have had an extremely inconsistent season. After a blazing 5-1 start, the Texans have suffered through erratic offensive form and upset losses to the likes of the Tennessee Titans and New York Jets.
They got back on track, though, in Week 13 with a victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Here’s a closer look at where the Texans fit in the AFC playoff picture after Week 13.
Can the Texans Make the Playoffs?
Heading into Week 14, the Houston Texans are 8-5 and now have an 83.6% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a <0.1% chance for the first seed, a 0.7% chance for the second seed, a 5.2% chance for the third seed, a 70.9% chance for the fourth seed, a 0.5% chance for the fifth seed, a 1.6% chance for the sixth seed, and a 4.8% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Texans Win the AFC South?
Here’s what the AFC South race looks like heading into Week 14:
- The Houston Texans have a 76.8% chance to win the AFC South.
- The Indianapolis Colts have a 21.3% chance to win the AFC South.
- The Tennessee Titans have a 1.6% chance to win the AFC South.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have a 0.0% chance to win the AFC South.
Current AFC South Standings
- Houston Texans (8-5)
- Indianapolis Colts (6-7)
- Tennessee Titans (3-9)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)
AFC Playoff Race | Week 17
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (12-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
4. Houston Texans (9-7)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)
7. Denver Broncos (9-6)
In The Hunt
8. Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
9. Miami Dolphins (7-8)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
11. New York Jets (4-11)
12. Cleveland Browns (3-12)
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-12)
15. Las Vegas Raiders (3-12)
16. New England Patriots (3-12)
Texans’ Super Bowl Chances After Week 13
Can the Texans win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Houston has a 1% chance to win it all.
Texans’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 14: BYE
- Week 15: vs. Miami Dolphins
- Week 16: at Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 17: vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Week 18: at Tennessee Titans
What PFN Predicted for the Texans at Jaguars Matchup
The Texans clearly are better than the two-win Jaguars, but the same was true of their matchup against the two-win Titans entering Week 12. With how mistake-prone the Texans have been at times and Trevor Lawrence’s expected return for Jacksonville, it would be foolish to overlook the Jags’ prospects in this game.
That said, Jacksonville is not nearly as problematic of a matchup for Houston, particularly the Jaguars’ defense. Houston’s greatest weakness has been pass protection, as the Texans rank 25th in pressure rate and 26th in sack rate allowed. However, the Jaguars’ defense ranks only 27th in pressure rate and 28th in sack rate.
Similarly, Houston depends on big plays to sustain its offensive production, which should be viable for this week. The Texans’ offense has the sixth-highest rate of explosive plays, while the Jaguars’ defense has the third-highest rate of explosive plays allowed.
On the other side, the Texans’ defense ranks third in sack rate after its eight-sack outing against the Titans, while the Jags rank 18th in sack rate allowed. With left tackle Cam Robinson traded weeks ago and Will Anderson Jr. back from injury, Houston should be able to put Lawrence under duress in his return.
The Texans have lost a lot of faith as a Super Bowl contender, and their flaws are likely too prominent to overcome against the class of the AFC. However, the Jaguars are far from that stratosphere, and it would be shocking to see Houston face plant in consecutive weeks against division cellar-dwellers.
PFN Prediction: Texans 28, Jaguars 20