The NFL heads to Green Bay tonight for the final game of the Thanksgiving triple header, and Mother Nature could be set to make this game very interesting. Any time we head outdoors to Lambeau Field in November or December, there is a risk of adverse weather impacting the game.
We’ve already seen snow flurries in Green Bay over the last few weeks, but they haven’t yet impacted any game at Lambeau this year. The current forecast for tonight’s game could see that change, with a small chance of snow forecasted in the area.
Let’s examine the latest NFL weather forecast for the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers game tonight and what the weather could mean in terms of a potential fantasy football or betting impact.
Will It Snow During the Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers Game?
According to the National Weather Service, the current weather forecast in Green Bay suggests that we could see snow tonight. However, if it does fall, it’s unlikely to be heavy.
There is just a 20-25% chance of precipitation throughout the game, meaning it’s unlikely to impact things in the same way we saw in Cleveland last week.
[11/28/24] 5:00am
🦃 Happy Thanksgiving! NC WI can expect some fowl weather today as NW winds create accumulating lake effect snow. 1 to 4" of snow is expected for most of Vilas Co. Snow-covered/slippery roads will be likely, so be sure to exercise caution if travelling!#wiwx pic.twitter.com/U3rm7JmQZC— NWS Green Bay (@NWSGreenBay) November 28, 2024
If precipitation does start to fall, it will likely be snow rather than rain. Temperatures will be below 25 degrees Fahrenheit, and the wind chill factor will be between 10 and 15 degrees. But with no heavy snowfall forecast in the next 48 hours, there shouldn’t be a deep covering.
What Impact Could the Weather in Green Bay Have on Fantasy Decisions?
There’s a lot to unpack in this game when it comes to the weather in Green Bay and the potential impact. Mostly, we can put the snow to the back of our minds because the forecast doesn’t call for enough to cause a serious issue. There’s not much firm data on levels of snowfall during a game and the impact, but generally, we don’t see flurries have a major impact.
Even if the snow does fall heavier, historically, it hasn’t resulted in a consistent downturn in overall fantasy output. Over the past 10 seasons, games that kick off with temperatures between 20 and 30 degrees and those played in clear conditions or snow have seen a similar level of total fantasy output.
What does change is the make up of fantasy output. In snow games, the running output increases from an average of around 16 fantasy points per team per game in clear conditions to just under 22 on average. The receiving fantasy output drops by a similar amount, and kicking accuracy decreases in snowy conditions.
The potentially bigger concern for fantasy managers here should be the temperature at which the game will be played. Over the last decade, once temperatures have dropped below 30 degrees Fahrenheit, we see a drop in fantasy output from an average of over 90 fantasy points per team per game to around 84. This is not a huge decrease overall, but a slight downturn nonetheless.
The wind adds another dimension. This matchup is set to see sustained winds in the 9-10 miles per hour region, with gusts up to 20 mph during the game. Generally, with wind speeds anywhere up to 15 mph, there hasn’t been a dramatic shift in the way fantasy points are scored during games.
There is a slight drop in passing output when wind speeds rise above 5 mph, but things remain fairly stable when between 5 and 15. Once wind speeds rise above 16 mph, the run game begins to dominate. Running backs actually see a fairly significant uptick in fantasy output in these games.
Kicking output also falls as wind speeds increase, so if you can find another kicking option, it would make sense this week.
The bigger concern for fantasy managers is Tua Tagovailoa’s performance in games played in these conditions. Thursday will be the ninth game of Tagovailoa’s career with kickoff temperatures of 50 or below. He’s won just one of his previous eight such starts.
Tua’s stats in those games? Absolutely brutal: 57.6% completion percentage, nine touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 6.7 yards per attempt, and a passer rating of 70.9.
That is a worrying sign for the fantasy value of anyone involved in the Dolphins’ passing offense this week. Therefore, fantasy managers may want to think long and hard about whether they have another option to avoid having to use anyone in Miami’s offense.
In contrast, there is no reason to do anything different than usual with the Packers’ passing game. They are used to these conditions and should be capable of performing as expected tonight.
Will the Weather Impact Betting Markets on This Game?
The current line for this game is the Packers -3.5, with the total set at 47.5. This line hasn’t moved significantly this week, which shows that sportsbooks are not expecting heavy snowfall. Often, when snow is projected, we can see the total start to fall a few points.
Intriguingly, history tells us that the under might be the way to go here. In the past decade, 49 games have been played at temperatures between 20 and 30 degrees. In those games, the under has hit 61.2% of the time, with an average points per game of 41.0.
The home win percentage in those games is also 57.1%, and the favorite covers 55.3% of the time. Those numbers are not convincingly in the Packers’ favor here, but the added wrinkle of facing a warm-weather team whose QB struggles in cold weather historically could make Green Bay an intriguing play.