The Green Bay Packers will face the Miami Dolphins in Week 13. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Packers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 13 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Jordan Love, QB
Week 6 was Jordan Love’s last top-10 finish, though his final stat line last week in the domination of the 49ers looks much more impressive if Christian Watson squeezes what should have been a 49-yard touchdown.
Love’s overall aggression has spiked over the past month (10.2 aDOT). That is a large reason as to why I have him ranked as a fantasy starter this week and think we could be looking at an awfully fun game to round out Thanksgiving.
This season, when defending the deep ball, Miami’s defense ranks 27th in passer rating, 27th in yards per attempt, 31st in completion percentage, and 32nd in interception rate. If Josh Jacobs can continue to churn out yardage on the ground, there should be splash plays available.
Does Love connect? I’ll say he does, and that’s why he sits as my QB11.
Josh Jacobs, RB
Josh Jacobs has cleared PPR fantasy expectations by 29% over his past five games (four games with 20+ points over that stretch) and seems to be getting stronger with time. I don’t think he’s a threat to push into the top tier at the position, but with three top-five finishes over the past month, he’s carrying your fantasy team right now.
I think there’s a little more risk in Jacobs’ profile than is assumed by most (four games this season with under one yard per carry before contact), but that’s nitpicking. He recorded seven red-zone touches last week against the 49ers (tied for the fourth most in a game during his career), and his role is more than enough to overcome any of my minor concerns.
MarShawn Lloyd, RB
Appendicitis landed MarShawn Lloyd on the reserve/NFI list in the middle of last week, resulting in another four-week absence at the minimum and almost assuredly ending his rookie campaign.
There’s no need to continue holding onto Lloyd in redraft leagues. Josh Jacobs is under contract for another three seasons, making redraft value a long shot next season for Lloyd in anything but a handcuff capacity.
Christian Watson, WR
I have a hard time thinking there is a player in the league who averages more words of analysis in this article per reception over the past two seasons than Christian Watson. The raw athletic ability is clear every time he steps onto the field and that profile is intoxicating in an offense we want to trust, but we’ve been burned far too frequently by his lack of focus.
I feel like we’ve seen this before. I just can’t shake the feeling …
It should be noted that the ability to get this sort of separation is a major plus. But until I convince my leagues to shift to a point-per-yard-of-separation bonus, the ability to catch is going to be more critical than anything when it is literally the job description.
All of that said, I could see going back to the well if you feel like you’re chasing. The Dolphins are the only defense in the NFL yet to intercept a deep pass and we know Jordan Love is more than happy to cut it loose.
You know what you’re getting with Watson – if you’re willing to swallow the floor, there is a matchup-swinging upside to at least consider as you sink into the couch after a long day of Thanksgiving-ing.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR
We are three months into the year, and that’s a long time to hold onto early-season production. Entering Week 13, 75% of Dontayvion Wicks’ scores and 47.9% of his yards came in September. The talented 23-year-old is capable of making plays, but he’s yet to be prioritized by this team.
Packers WR snap shares, Week 12:
- Christian Watson: 62.7%
- Romeo Doubs (concussion): 49.3%
- Jayden Reed: 49.3%
- Wicks: 40.3%
- Bo Melton: 34.3%
- Malik Heath: 22.4%
With Doubs unlikely to play, the 6’1” Wicks is very much on my DFS radar for the Thanksgiving slate. We’ve seen Jordan Love distribute his targets to a variety of players, and while that introduces upside, it also eliminates any reasonable floor. Wicks is a stash in redraft leagues at this point, though you should be encouraged by fewer obstacles in his way for the short term.
Jayden Reed, WR
Over the past two weeks, Jayden Reed has four catches for 41 yards and a touchdown on the first drive of the game. That’s great. Less great is the fact that he has totaled three scrimmage yards after that. Green Bay clearly enters the game with the intent to get their WR1 involved, and it works, but it fades with time for whatever reason.
I remain bullish on the idea of Reed as “the guy” in this offense with a Deebo Samuel Sr.-like role (he has a rush attempt in nine of 11 games), but there is no denying that there is sizeable risk involved.
I’ve gradually moved Reed down in my rankings, and he is now hovering in that Flex tier, especially against a Dolphins defense that has allowed a receiver to clear 15 PPR points just three times. I’m still intrigued enough to play him in most PPR settings, but he’s no longer the lineup lock I once had him labeled as.
Romeo Doubs, WR
Romeo Doubs suffered a concussion during the Week 12 win over the 49ers. With a short week to prepare, it’s borderline unfathomable to think that the team would push him through protocol in time to play this week.
Active or not, Doubs doesn’t need to be rostered. He relied on touchdowns to matter last season (eight scores), but he’s been held out of the paint in nine of his 10 games this season and hasn’t shown growth in terms of earning targets. His absence makes a fantasy impact for those around him, but the hopes of him being an asset this season were dashed long ago.
Tucker Kraft, TE
Tucker Kraft capped an impressive first drive for the Packers last weekend against the 49ers with a score (his sixth of the season), but the production was gone as quickly as it came. The second-year tight end finished with just two catches for 26 yards and has now been held under 35 receiving yards in five of his past six games.
Kraft was unable to earn targets at a reasonable rate despite Romeo Doubs (concussion) departing early and San Francisco having to fully commit to plug the run game. He’s been on the field for 85.2% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps this season, and with this Black Friday game pushing a 48-point total, I understand the thought process that will get you to label Kraft as a viable option.
However, Kraft sits just outside of my top 15 this week with all 32 teams in action, given a role that simply isn’t consistent enough for my liking. I’ll take Jonnu Smith over him if we are picking tight ends to bet on in this game.