The leftovers are in the fridge. The dishes are done. It’s time for the best post-Thanksgiving dinner tradition of them all: Prime-time football!
NBC gets a good one Thursday night when Tua Tagovailoa and the surging Miami Dolphins (5-6) visit Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers (8-3) in a nationally televised Week 13 treat.
Miami Dolphins-Green Bay Packers Game Preview
The Packers (seventh in PR+, eighth in OFF+) are the best team left on the schedule for the Dolphins. The same cannot be said the other way around. Three of Green Bay’s final five games are against teams currently in the playoff field (Lions, Seahawks, Vikings).
So this game means way more to Miami from both a competitive and psychological perspective.
The Packers are largely playing for postseason seeding. They’re a whopping 94.1% to get into the postseason, per the PFN Playoff Predictor. The Dolphins (34.9% playoff chance), meanwhile, have basically no margin for error. One more loss could doom them in a top-heavy AFC.
And historically, this type of a game is a loss for the Dolphins.
In the Mike McDaniel era, the Dolphins have been bad against good teams (5-14, with a total offensive EPA of -90.79 against teams who enter the matchup .500 or better), bad in cold weather (2-10, including playoffs, when the game-time temperature is 55 or below), and bad in prime time (3-9, including playoffs).
So a win Thursday night would not only keep the Dolphins’ season on track, but it’d also change national perceptions that this is a paper tiger franchise.
“I’m excited to kill narratives, so let’s go,” Tagovailoa said this week. “Bring it on.”
Added Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver: “I’ve been around big-time football now since 1998. I’ve never lost a game and looked back and thought, ‘Guys, it was just too cold outside,’ so I don’t expect that to happen this week. … It doesn’t matter what the temperature is, they can go and snap this in the mall parking lot and we’re going to go and do everything we can to try to win.”
It’ll be up to Weaver to slow down a Packers offense that ranks in the top eight in points (26.2 per game), yards per play (6.2), yards per pass (8), OFF+ (82.2), and dropback EPA (.177).
Plus, they have the NFL’s No. 3 running back in Josh Jacobs, who has 944 yards and seven touchdowns on 202 carries (4.7 per).
The only thing that has stopped the Packers’ offense this year? Love turnovers. His 11 interceptions in just nine games are second-most in the league.
Want more Dolphins-Packers stats? Here are seven important ones, courtesy of TruMedia.
Seven Dolphins-Packers Stats From TruMedia
Stat: Tagovailoa is 0-4 in his career (including playoffs) when the kickoff temperatures are 40 degrees or below, completing 54.5% of his passes and averaging 6.1 yards per attempt for a passer rating of 68.2.
Analysis: It should be said that opponent quality has been a factor. Those losses — to the Buffalo Bills in 2020 and 2022, the Tennessee Titans in 2021, and Kansas City Chiefs in 2023 — all came against division champions.
Stat: Tagovailoa’s average depth of throw in touchdowns in 2022 was 14.1 yards. Last season, that number was 13.2 yards. This season? 4.5 yards.
Analysis: What a difference a tight end makes. Jonnu Smith (48 catches, 535 yards, four touchdowns) has allowed McDaniel to run a more sustainable offense.
Stat: The Dolphins have averaged over two points per drive in five straight games (their peak this season prior to this run was 1.8).
Analysis: Tagovailoa continues his torrent stretch since his return from IR. Since Week 8, he’s completed 70% of his passes with nine touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 117.1 rating in the red zone.
Stat: Love misfired on six of seven deep passes in the win over the 49ers last week, the first time he has failed to complete multiple deep passes since Week 5 of last season.
Analysis: No Kendall Fuller (concussion) for the third straight game will likely mean lots of targets for Storm Duck and/or Cam Smith.
Stat: If the Dolphins keep the Packers under 20 points, it’ll be just the second time since 2011 that Miami has held an opponent under 20 in four straight games (Weeks 9-13, 2021).
Analysis: The key during this recent stretch? The emergence of rookie Chop Robinson, who has 22 pressures, 2.5 sacks, and two tackles for loss in the last three games.
Stat: Green Bay scored a touchdown on all five red-zone drives against San Francisco, which is nice growth for a team that scored a touchdown on just 40% of its red-zone trips over the previous three games.
Analysis: In the Dolphins’ five wins, they have a defensive red-zone efficiency of 27.3%. In their six losses, it balloons to 61.1%.
Stat: Jacobs has cleared PPR fantasy expectations by 29% over his past five games (four games with 20+ points over that stretch).
Analysis: The Dolphins had gotten gashed on the ground early in the season, but they have not allowed a run of over 20 yards since Week 7 (five straight games).
Dolphins vs. Packers Predictions
- Mike Wobschall (69.5% on the season): Dolphins
- Kyle Soppe (65.7%): Packers
- Adam Beasley (63.5%): Dolphins
- David Bearman (62.9%): Dolphins
- Anthony DiBona (62.9%): Packers
- Dan Tomaro (60.1%): Packers
- Dallas Robinson (61.8%): Packers
- Dakota Randall (56.7%): Packers