The three pillars of Thanksgiving are friends and family, food, and football. When people gather to spend time together and watch the games, it’s always fun to have a little action.
Sometimes, betting sides and totals aren’t enough. For those people, we’ve got you covered. Here are our favorite NFL Thanksgiving player prop bets, including plays on Malik Nabers.
NFL Thanksgiving Player Prop Bets
Malik Nabers Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (+100 at ESPNBet)
Unfortunately, this line no longer exists. I pounced on this as soon as we got reports that Tommy DeVito may not be able to go.
As things currently stand, Drew Lock is set to make his first start as a member of the New York Giants. By the time you’re reading this, Malik Nabers’ line may be over 70. But that’s okay because I would play this up to 75.5.
Lock is probably not an NFL-caliber starting quarterback, but he’s far more competent than Daniel Jones and DeVito. He made two starts for the Seattle Seahawks last season, with DK Metcalf totaling 78 receiving yards in one and Tyler Lockett getting to 89 receiving yards in the other.
The Dallas Cowboys allow the 12th-most passing yards per game, with 65% of their total allowed going to wide receivers.
If all of that isn’t enough, this is going to be the Nabers’ squeaky wheel game. Expect the Giants to funnel targets to their elite WR1 early and often. I think he has a shot to go for 150+.
Bonus long shot play: Nabers to record 110+ receiving yards (+650 at Bet365) — I would play this down to +500
Drew Lock Anytime Touchdown (+750 at DraftKings)
Obviously, don’t go too big on a bet like this. It’s definitely a long shot and unlikely to hit. I threw a free bet on it as one of the more plausible bets at longer odds.
No one would classify Lock as a mobile quarterback, but he’s not a statue, either. He has eight starts with 15+ rushing yards and five career rushing touchdowns.
This is Lock’s first start with the Giants. It may very well be his only one. This may be his one and only chance to prove to the rest of the league he deserves a chance to compete for a starting job.
I expect Lock to go out there and lay it all on the line. That means aggressive scrambles and a willingness to fight for extra yardage.
When the Giants get near the goal line, of course, Tyrone Tracy Jr. will have the first shot at a rushing touchdown. But I can definitely see Lock getting to the line quickly if the Giants are at the 1-yard-line and they quick snap it for a QB sneak.
At +750, it’s worth a small wager.
Odell Beckham Jr. Longest Reception Under 10.5 Yards (-113 at Caesars)
I’m going to let you all in on a little mini-exploit secret I’ve uncovered over the years. One of the most successful areas of prop betting for me has always been betting unders on low receiving totals from wide receivers who aren’t particularly good.
Oh, how I miss the Septembers of Los Angeles Rams Allen Robinson and Giants Kenny Golladay. But there’s a little quirk in the way lines are offered that increases our odds of success.
Odell Beckham Jr.’s total receiving yards line is only 13.5. Yet, his longest reception prop is 10.5. What are the odds he catches exactly one pass specifically for 11, 12, or 13 yards? Not very high.
Chances are, if Beckham has a reception longer than 10.5 yards, we would’ve lost under 13.5 yards anyway. On the flip side, what are the chances he catches multiple passes for 10 yards or less?
Definitely higher.
That’s why we take Beckham’s longest reception under instead of the total receiving yards. In theory, Beckham could catch four passes for 24 yards, and we could still win.
On the season, Beckham has seven catches. Only one has gone for more than 10.5 yards, and it went for exactly 11.
Beckham is averaging 6.4 yards per reception, with an average depth of target of 7.4. He’s averaging 0.9 yards after the catch per target.
This game is in cold weather and projects to be one where the Miami Dolphins rely more on the run than the pass.