Soppe’s Week 13 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help every one of you with your specific questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on Twitter, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece, is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Week 13 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers, QB | NYJ (vs. SEA)

I’m about as out on the Seahawks’ defense as anyone, and even I can’t get there with recommending Aaron Rodgers as a fantasy starter this weekend.

Seattle struggles against the deep pass (see Wilson, Garrett), but my concern is with Rodgers having the needed time to exploit that weakness. The Seahawks rank in the 80th percentile when it comes to creating pressure without the benefit of a blitz, a situation in which Rodgers has struggled this season.

Over his past four games, the future Hall of Famer has completed just six of his 20 passes in such spots (pressured without a blitz) for 58 yards. That’s not going to get it done, and that factors prominently into him being twice as likely this season to finish as the QB20 or worse than the QB10 or better.

If Rodgers looks good this weekend, we can have a streaming discussion next week in Miami, but without any teams on a bye, there’s no reason to take on this sort of risk.

Aidan O’Connell, QB | LV (at KC)

We’ve gone through the Aidan O’Connell experience already, and it wasn’t pretty (455 yards and two scores on 82 attempts). He loaded Brock Bowers down with double-digit targets in both of his starts, and that’s proof that he can do the one thing fantasy nation needs him to do (not much different than what Cooper Rush is asked to do in Dallas with CeeDee Lamb).

You’re splitting hairs to some degree, but if I have Jakobi Meyers or Bowers, I prefer O’Connell to be calling the shots than Desmond Ridder.

Anthony Richardson, QB | IND (at NE)

One week after showing some growth, Anthony Richardson was back to Anthony Richardson-ing against the Lions on Sunday.

Yes, he recorded 10+ carries for the third time in four games, but the forward baby steps from Week 11 as a passer disappeared. Against Detroit, he completed just 11 of 28 passes (39.3%) with zero touchdowns. He now has as many games this season with 25+ attempts and a sub-40% completion rate as the rest of the NFL (two) — but wait, there’s more.

He threw 13 passes under pressure on Sunday — he completed one of them (nine yards). You read that right. He was 9-of-12 for 145 yards in such spots against the Jets in Week 11, and then, poof, that growth and maturity vanished.

The Patriots aren’t an overly aggressive bunch on the defensive end, though they have brought the heat when they felt the matchup asked for it (four games this season with a blitz rate of at least 40%). I’m expecting them to label this as such a situation, and while Richardson’s profile always comes with the upside, the floor is too low to risk this time of year with 31 other signal callers to choose from.

Baker Mayfield, QB | TB (at CAR)

How long is the list of quarterbacks that are more fun to watch when they are feeling themselves than Baker Mayfield? Heck, is it even a list? It might be a single name (Patrick Mahomes gets my vote, with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson also in this conversation).

Sadly, “fun” doesn’t always mean massive fantasy numbers. His Superman dive into the end zone last week against the Giants helped his Week 12 bottom line, but with just one touchdown toss over his past two games (59 attempts), the floor is worrisome.

That said, this is obviously a great matchup, and the accuracy that Mayfield has shown (at least 74% completion in three of his past four games) allows him to sneak into the backend of my QB1 rankings this week, checking in ahead of Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes.

Bo Nix, QB | DEN (vs. CLE)

Bo Nix has three straight games with multiple passing touchdowns and 30 pass attempts with zero interceptions. No rookie has ever done it in four straight games (Daniel Jones and Lamar Jackson authored such games against the Browns this season).

Could this be a historic spot for the rookie? Could Nix take over the Rookie of the Year betting board?

Nix has seven QB1 finishes this season and has been at his best when his best is needed — 12 completions on 14 red-zone pass attempts over the past three weeks (six touchdowns).

This high-pressure defense gives me some concerns, which is why I’ve cautiously ranked Nix as my QB15 this week, a respectable ranking in a matchup that isn’t great and with all 32 teams in action.

Brandon Allen, QB | SF (at BUF)

It took Brandon Allen 29 passes to threaten 200 yards through the air last week in Lambeau. He was able to spread out his targets, but when throwing to teammates not named George Kittle, Allen was able to complete just 55% of his passes, a rate that just isn’t going to cut it.

If Allen draws another start, you don’t need to worry about it when it comes to the QB position. His connection with Kittle was strong enough to keep the veteran TE ranked top seven regardless of who is under center.

The value of Deebo Samuel Sr. would be the one to watch, but I’m ranking things as if Brock Purdy will be back this week and get San Francisco’s offense back on track with its season hanging in the balance.

Brock Purdy, QB | SF (at BUF)

Brock Purdy (right shoulder) sat out last week against the Packers. Advanced testing showed no structural damage, leading to cautious optimism that he’ll return to the lineup this week. Should that be the case, I think there’s a possibility Purdy gives us a borderline QB1 performance.

The Bills excel at shutting down opponents from big perimeter plays, but this 49ers offense is happy to focus on the shorter passing game and let their athletes work in space.

Purdy has completed 71.9% of his passes since Christian McCaffrey returned to the field, and I don’t think that’s an accident. He has a quartet of top-six finishes this season, thanks in part to four rushing scores over his past four games.

No, he’s not Lamar Jackson. He’s not even Daniel Jones when it comes to athleticism, but Purdy is mobile enough to raise his fantasy floor, which I think will help this week against a patient Buffalo defense.

If we get a clean bill of health entering the weekend, Purdy will move inside of my top 15 quarterbacks.

Bryce Young, QB | CAR (vs. TB)

Bryce Young has looked better of late, and I think part of it is Carolina giving him the potential to do so. Against the Chiefs last week, the Panthers opened with three passes on their first four plays, a run of plays that saw their second-year QB complete passes to three different players.

It’s true that Young has finished inside the top 15 in two of his past three starts and that the Buccaneers defense has been vulnerable. However, starting him in a week with 31 other teams in action is borderline crazy.

It’s perfectly okay to say you’re encouraged by Young’s recent play while still not wanting to invest a penny in him this week — that’s where I stand.

Caleb Williams, QB | CHI (at DET)

Caleb Williams showed nice mobility last week, and I think that is a path to him being a viable asset as soon as 2025. We’ve seen some proof of concept games from the rookie this season (three top-six performances), but the growing pains have outweighed those positive spots (those are his only top-12 finishes through three months).

The Lions offense steals most of the headlines, but this defense is a problem, as they rank fourth in the red zone and first in third down situations. Williams is going to have plenty of chances to produce against Detroit in his career – this isn’t a matchup I want to be have any part of.

C.J. Stroud, QB | HOU (at JAX)

C.J. Stroud was QB7 twice in September and seemed to be in position to light the fantasy world on fire. Those hopes have since been extinguished as he hasn’t produced a top-12 week since the strong start.

I thought he left a few plays on the field last week and, for a second consecutive game, he had a long Nico Collins touchdown taken off the board. The breakout seems to be more of a matter of “when” and not “if,” so why not this spot?

The Jaguars own the seventh-worst red zone defense in the league and the Texans are averaging 17.6% more red zone trips per game since Collins’ return than through 10 weeks. Stroud currently sits at QB7 in my Week 13 rankings.

Cooper Rush, QB | DAL (vs. NYG)

Cooper Rush is doing all we need him to do and that’s funnel targets to CeeDee Lamb. The backup QB has been forced to throw at rates well above what this team wants as a result of lopsided game scripts, but such a result seems unlikely in this ugly matchup.

The Giants allow the highest deep passer rating in the NFL – if you play in a NFC East only league or are trying to get creative with a Thanksgiving Day DFS lineup, it’s Rush over whoever the Giants go with for me.

Derek Carr, QB | NO (vs. LAR)

Derek Carr is on a career pace in passer rating, yards per pass, and touchdown rate. Thanks to splash plays from Marquez Valdes-Scantling, his counting numbers have looked great over the past two games:

• 52 pass attempts
• 37 completions
• 517 passing yards
• Four touchdowns
• Zero interceptions

The injuries to the receiver room haven’t impacted Carr in a big way lately, but is that sustainable? The Rams are a top-five pressure defense, and if that makes stretching the field difficult, I’m not sure there’s much of a path to top-15 numbers without versatility or upside. That is why I’m looking elsewhere in all one-QB leagues and DFS contests, even on the fast track.

Drake Maye, QB | NE (vs. IND)

Drake Maye shows flashes of potential seemingly every week, but stringing together 60 strong minutes has proven to be a tough ask. The rookie hasn’t finished better than QB15 since Week 7 and that’s the general range in which I have him ranked for this home game.

The Colts own the second-lowest deep touchdown rate allowed (1.3% of attempts) while posting the sixth-highest interception rate on such passes. If they aren’t vulnerable down the field on Sunday, I’m having a hard time thinking that Maye dinks and dunks his way to viability.

You might be able to talk me into Maye as a viable streaming option in Week 15 (at Arizona after the bye week), but I’ll pass for Week 13.

Drew Lock, QB | NYG (at DAL)

Drew Lock offers a level of upside to this Giants offense that Tommy DeVito does not, but that doesn’t mean you go this direction with any level of confidence.

The former second-round pick has made 23 NFL starts, and he’s produced under 13 fantasy points in 13 of those outings. That would imply that you’re swimming upstream to get to 13 points in this spot, and if you didn’t have any interest in Daniel Jones (13.5 PPG), there’s no reason to give Lock a look.

On the bright side, Lock’s career average depth of throw is 8.4 yards, and that gives a glimmer of hope for managers with Malik Nabers rostered should DeVito be ruled out.

Gardner Minshew II, QB | LV (at KC)

Gardner Minshew II suffered a broken collarbone last weekend against the Broncos, and the team wasted no time in ruling him out for the season. His season ends with more interceptions (10) than touchdown passes (nine) despite showing some growth in the completion percentage department (66.3%).

The 28-year-old Minshew has one more season on his deal with the Raiders before becoming an unrestricted free agent.

Geno Smith, QB | SEA (at NYJ)

Geno Smith has one passing touchdown over his past two games (63 attempts) and has only two multi-pass TD efforts this season. He’s been sacked 16 times in his past three games, and we’ve seen what pressure can do to his decision-making (end-zone interception last week being the latest example).

New York opponents average the seventh-fewest drives per game, and this defense owns an above-average success rate. In my eyes, Smith is a “play in the perfect spot” fantasy quarterback, but I simply don’t view this as that.

Jalen Hurts, QB | PHI (at BAL)

Last week was the Saquon Barkley show, and yet, Jalen Hurts still manages to run 12 times and average 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Hurts is having a remarkable season, and this is as good a spot as any for him to flash his upside, with the Ravens boasting an elite run defense and a vulnerable secondary.

The primary knock on Hurts is a lack of volume (he hasn’t thrown 30 passes in a game since September), and that’s plenty fair. However, I don’t think that’ll be an issue this week with plenty of fire power on the other end to push him.

Hurts is my top-ranked QB of the week, and I feel good about it.

Jameis Winston, QB | CLE (at DEN)

Even in the snowy conditions and against an elite defense, Jameis Winston continued to inch up his in-pocket completion percentage on Thursday night against the Steelers (58.1% in Week 9, 61.9% in Week 11, and 63.6% in Week 12).

The exciting plays are fun, but if Winston is improving his production in these on-script spots, we might be onto something. The problem, of course, is the schedule. I’m not going to have him ranked as a fantasy starter in any of the next three weeks, and that includes Week 14’s rematch with Pittsburgh, a week in which six teams have their bye.

With the scheduling being what it is and Winston’s mobility limited at best, he’s going to need to be close to perfect to return top-15 numbers. I don’t see that happening (3-of-11 passing in the red zone in November), and that means that I’ll be enjoying the Winston experience from a distance as opposed to trusting him with the fate of my fantasy season in his hands.

Jared Goff, QB | DET (vs. CHI)

While the Bengals need to squeeze every ounce of fantasy production out of Joe Burrow in order to have a chance to win, the Lions can win in half a dozen ways, and only a few of them require Jared Goff to produce in a helpful way for us.

Case in point? Detroit is angling for the conference’s top seed, and Goff has posted just one finish better than QB18 since Week 7. The Bears own the fourth-best red-zone defense, positioning themselves to potentially limit Detroit’s lethal run game (David Montgomery’s health could help with that as well).

Does that force Goff to win this game?

He’s been predictably potent at home (last three home games: 789 passing yards and nine touchdowns while completing 87.1% of his passes). The floor created by Goff’s profile has me ranking him ahead of Bo Nix and Patrick Mahomes when it comes to the back end of my QB1 tier.

Jayden Daniels, QB | WAS (vs. TEN)

Are the ribs bothering Jayden Daniels? Since getting banged up in Week 7, he’s completing just 31.6% of passes when under duress (Weeks 1-6: 57.1%). Those splits give me pause when evaluating the rest of the season as a whole, but not this week.

The Titans are a bottom-10 defense in both blitz and pressure rate. They don’t view their ability to get to the quarterback as a strength, and I think that’s a blessing for Daniels’ managers.

As spotty as the rookie’s play has been of late, he’s shown up when his team has needed him, even if the defense has ultimately failed to hold up their end of the bargain. Daniels completed all seven of his passes on a late drive last week to give Washington a chance at the chaos that occurred.

Daniels posted his eighth QB1 finish last week, and I saw enough from his mobility wise to think that we get No. 9 in this spot.

Joe Burrow, QB | CIN (vs. PIT)

If you remove the weird Week 1 loss to the Patriots, Joe Burrow’s 17-game pace is 4,869 passing yards, 46 touchdowns, and seven interceptions (2011 MVP Aaron Rodgers: 4,643 yards, 45 touchdowns, and six interceptions).

Burrow has strung together three straight top-two finishes (in those games: 1,035 passing yards with 12 touchdowns and just one interception), and while projecting that level of success against an elite defense that gets the benefit of the mini-bye, there’s no way to drop him outside of the top six at the position this week.

Jordan Love, QB | GB (vs. MIA)

Week 6 was Jordan Love’s last top-10 finish, though his final stat line last week in the domination of the 49ers looks much more impressive if Christian Watson squeezes what should have been a 49-yard touchdown.

Love’s overall aggression has spiked over the past month (10.2 aDOT). That is a large reason as to why I have him ranked as a fantasy starter this week and think we could be looking at an awfully fun game to round out Thanksgiving.

This season, when defending the deep ball, Miami’s defense ranks 27th in passer rating, 27th in yards per attempt, 31st in completion percentage, and 32nd in interception rate. If Josh Jacobs can continue to churn out yardage on the ground, there should be splash plays available.

Does Love connect? I’ll say he does, and that’s why he sits as my QB11.

Josh Allen, QB | BUF (vs. SF)

Why is Josh Allen’s interception rate (1.5%) trending toward a career low? His quick pass rate sits at 67%, easily a career-high (2023: 58.4%). I find that to be an interesting approach in this matchup, specifically against a defense that blitzes at the third-lowest rate in the league.

Will Allen hold the ball longer and thus create splash-play opportunities? Will San Francisco sit in coverage and attempt to jump those quick hitters?

The nerd in me will be on full display when watching this game, but from a fantasy lineup setting scope, there’s nothing to act on. Allen has a rushing touchdown or multiple passing touchdowns in six straight contests, finishing as a top-10 signal-caller in five of those games. I don’t think this will be a peak Allen performance, but I find it highly unlikely that you lose your Week 13 matchup because you put your trust in the MVP front-runner.

Justin Herbert, QB | LAC (at ATL)

Monday night was another underwhelming performance as a passer for Justin Herbert in what was a perfect matchup for a second straight week. In two games against the struggling secondaries of the AFC North, he completed just 52.8% of his passes with two scores on 72 attempts.

I want to give him the benefit of the doubt and blame his pass catchers. The Chargers have averaged 1.9 drops per game during the Herbert era, the fifth most over that stretch.That excuse would be completely justifiable, but at some point, a carpenter can’t continue to blame his tools.

Even so, he’s been able to keep the fantasy ship above board with 6.5+ fantasy points on the ground in three straight contests, versatility that was on display early against the Ravens (2/2 passing for 35 yards with nine rushing yards and a touchdown on the opening drive).

At the end of the day, we are talking about a team trending toward the playoffs that is counting more now than ever on its franchise QB, and that’s more than enough for me to trust him in our game. The last time we saw this Atlanta defense, they allowed Bo Nix to post a 145.0 passer rating (our third best QB+ performance of the week). While a bye week to prepare for a team on short rest is a nice advantage, it’s not even close to preventing me from ranking Herbert inside my top-10 this week.

Kirk Cousins, QB | ATL (vs. LAC)

Atlanta’s recent struggles have been the result of Kirk Cousins not living up to expectations. In Weeks 10-11, he completed just 60.4% of his passes with zero scores and two interceptions when not blitzed (Weeks 8-9: 82.1% with six touchdowns and zero interceptions).

That makes him a tough sell coming out of the bye against a Chargers defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in blitz rate and the top five in success rate when bringing the heat. They are a defense content to sit back and choose their spots wisely. I mentioned Cousins’ downward trending numbers when not blitzed, and his rates look even worse in those two contests when pressured:

• 23 dropbacks
• 17 attempts
• Eight completions
• 109 yards
• Zero touchdowns
• Two interceptions

I think there will be utility for Cousins coming down the stretch this season, I just think it starts next week (Weeks 14-17: Vikings, Raiders, Giants, and Commanders). He’s failed to finish better than QB15 in three straight games (and in five of his past six), struggles that I think have a better chance at continuing on Sunday than Cousins punishing you for not trusting him significantly.

Kyler Murray, QB | ARI (at MIN)

Kyler Murray’s fantasy managers have every right to be frustrated, and sadly, I’m not sure things turn around in this spot. Over his past three games, Murray has one touchdown pass on 81 pass attempts, and while he punched in two scores with his legs against the Jets, the yardage totals on the ground have underwhelmed lately as well (36 rushing yards in those three games).

The Vikings are good at disguising what they are doing on the defensive end, though their desires are well known — they want to speed their opponent up and create discomfort. Murray hasn’t faced many defenses like that this season, but in his two games against above-average blitz rate defenses, he’s finished as the QB17 and QB23. In those games, he totaled just 349 passing yards, two touchdowns, and 48 rushing yards.

We were hoping for games like that, not an eight-quarter stretch. The versatility of this player and the desperation of the situation create a path to fantasy goodness, but I’d rather play more pocket-oriented players this week in good matchups (Russell Wilson at Cincinnati or Baker Mayfield at Carolina) than roll the dice on Murray (three top-five finishes this season but also four weeks checking in outside of the top 20).

Lamar Jackson, QB | BAL (vs. PHI)

Lamar Jackson now has eight straight games with a 20-yard rush or a 72% completion rate, a level of versatility that comfortably lands him in the tier of elite quarterbacks, if not sitting atop the position.

The Derrick Henry factor hasn’t limited his fantasy appeal in the least and I’d argue that it helps him. I don’t think the 10-yard sprint to the corner of the end zone on Monday night happens nearly as easily a season ago, but with Henry demanding high levels of attention on the interior, it almost seems too easy for this offense at times.

The Eagles defense is clearly trending in the right direction, and that puts them on the Super Bowl radar, but they haven’t faced a fully functional mobile quarterback (Daniel Jones doesn’t count and Jayden Daniels was battling an injury) and Jackson is matchup proof as it is – he’s an elite option across the board, including the DFS main slate.

Mac Jones, QB | JAX (vs. HOU)

This is a lost season for the Jaguars, and without Mac Jones being labeled as the long-term solution, there’s no reason to think that Jacksonville extends him in a way that would be meaningful for our game.

Jones hasn’t been a top-25 quarterback in either of his starts this season — the only fantasy impact is his ability (or inability) to support two pass catchers who we are starting. Can he do that (249 passing yards on 51 attempts over the past two games)? I’m worried. Keep reading, and you’ll see where I stand on both Brian Thomas Jr. and Evan Engram.

Matthew Stafford, QB | LAR (at NO)

Hand up if you thought this leaderboard would ever be symbolic of the top scorers at the QB position over a two-week stretch:

Tua Tagovailoa: 52 points
Bo Nix: 48.2 points
Matthew Stafford: 47 points
Jared Goff: 45.3 points
Sam Darnold: 44.7 points

Yeah, me neither.

Forget getting the entire list right, I’m not sure I would have gotten a single one of those names correct. Stafford has been a top-10 signal caller in three of his past five games and has looked the part of a stable fantasy option since getting his two receivers back to full strength.

I tend to target Stafford against high-blitz teams when looking for true ceiling performances, as those are the matchups where his elite connection with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua can beat single coverage on a regular basis. That’s not the position we find ourselves in this week (NO: 25th in blitz rate), and if the Saints can control the clock like they aim to do, I worry that Stafford doesn’t throw enough passes to produce top-15 numbers in this spot.

Patrick Mahomes, QB | KC (vs. LV)

Is Patrick Mahomes here to save your fantasy season (if there is a season left to save)? The former MVP has thrown six touchdown passes on 70 attempts over his past two games after throwing for six scores on 190 passes in the five games prior.

We know that this offense is more than capable of putting points on the board in a hurry. Mahomes has been good for multiple passing touchdowns in four of his past five and has been more willing to pick up chunk plays with his legs than in regular seasons past.

My concern here is the return of Isiah Pacheco and the potential to physically dominate on a short work week. Mahomes is my QB13 this week, and I think your willingness to go this direction is matchup-dependent.

The former MVP carries a reasonable floor, but I don’t think he has access to a ceiling that QBs in good spots like Russell Wilson (at CIN) or Baker Mayfield (at CAR) share.

Russell Wilson, QB | PIT (at CIN)

The Russell Wilson “moon balls” get a lot of attention, and they are fun, but over 39% of his attempts in all five of his starts have traveled less than five yards downfield (season rate: 45%), a style of play that introduces an awfully low floor for a veteran without elite support or high-end rushing abilities.

Wilson has been held under 14 fantasy points in three of his past four games, and he’s only a bomb or two away from the bottom completely falling out.

Those are long-term concerns. I’m not comfortable entering the fantasy playoffs banking on Wilson, but I’m just fine going into Week 13 with that being the case. This season, 10.1% of deep passes thrown against the Bengals result in a touchdown, and if Wilson can hit on one (maybe even two?), he’s going to have a chance to finish as a QB1 this week, even with all 32 teams in action.

I suspect he’ll be a popular DFS play this week, and I don’t think that’s necessarily wrong — just be careful in assuming that any production put up this weekend is predictive of what to do as we navigate December.

Sam Darnold, QB | MIN (vs. ARI)

Sam Darnold has been a QB1 in three of his past four starts and a top-15 signal-caller in five of his past six. I was encouraged by his willingness to challenge the Bears last week with players not named Justin Jefferson — if he can spread the ball around, that is how he can continue to offer a nice fantasy floor.

The increased health of T.J. Hockenson makes Darnold a viable option in deeper leagues, though I’m still approaching this profile with caution. His efficiency has fallen off a cliff lately (under 65% completion rate in three straight games after reaching at least 72% in three consecutive games), and while the long scores have bailed him out, that’s a dangerous way to live.

I’d rather play Bo Nix (vs. CLE) or Jared Goff (vs. CHI) when it comes to low-end QB1s this week.

Tommy DeVito, QB | NYG (at DAL)

A forearm injury limited Tommy DeVito at practice on Tuesday, but Brian Daboll did mention that he is “hopeful” when it comes to the status of his quarterback. Fantasy managers need not worry about this situation in anything but Superflex spots.

In those leagues, Drew Lock is the addition to make, and I actually think he carries a little more fantasy upside than the incumbent.

Trevor Lawrence, QB | JAX (vs. HOU)

Trevor Lawrence has returned to practice after missing two games with a shoulder injury and while he is a recognizable name, there’s no reason for this to interest fantasy managers as we come down the stretch of 2023.

Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton are just two of the quarterbacks with a higher peak positional finish than Lawrence this season and with various injuries to his playmakers, I’m not confident that what we see post-injury is much different than what we saw prior.

With Brian Thomas as his primary weapon for most of his games this season, Lawrence has sacrificed some efficiency for deep shots (aDOT up 11% from last season), but he’s been unable to reach a ceiling performance as a result.

Perhaps the biggest flaw in his 2024 profile is the lack of rushing. Lawrence has one game this season with 20 yards on the ground and if he is going to be a glorified pocket passer, he’s going to have to be near perfect to work his way into the starting conversation in most fantasy leagues – not just this season, but for the foreseeable future.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB | MIA (at GB)

Tua Tagovailoa is the third quarterback this season to throw for 285 yards and three touchdowns in consecutive games this season (others: Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow), posting top-10 numbers in both of those weeks.

The Raiders and Patriots aren’t exactly lockdown defenses, but Tagovailoa doesn’t have to apologize, and you could certainly argue that he’s yet to truly optimize the weapons at his disposal. The Packers boast a viable defense (eighth-fewest points allowed per drive this season), though they are vulnerable in an area of strength for this Dolphins attack.

Through 12 weeks, Green Bay ranks 24th in YAC allowed to opposing receivers. If there is a spot for the Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle tandem to rediscover their collective form from years past, this appears to be as good a spot as any.

The only thing working against this offense is Mother Nature. We could get a wintery mix in Lambeau with freezing temperatures. How impactful has the cold weather proven in the past?

Tua Tagovailoa in games under 40 degrees:

• 6.3 yards per attempt
• 2.4% touchdown rate

Tagovailoa in games over 40 degrees:

• 7.8 yards per attempt
• 5.3% touchdown rate

I’m weighing the favorable matchup data over projected weather as we sit here today. That could change as we near kickoff and the forecast becomes more accurate, but barring significant winds, I’m unlikely to knock Tagovailoa outside of my top 10 at the position.

Will Levis, QB | TEN (at WAS)

Will Levis opened last week at Houston with 11 straight completions (177 yards and a touchdown), something that was good for dynasty managers to see.

He later added to his fantasy total by hitting Chig Okonkwo on a nine-yard pass that the athletic tight end turned into a 70-yard touchdown. If you’re simply looking at box scores, you’ll see two usable weeks from Levis in his three games since returning from injury — again, a nice step for him to take in Year 2.

Let’s not get carried away. This isn’t a player that one-QB-leaguers need to worry about. If he can put up big numbers this week, we can have the “Do I stream Will Levis against Jacksonville with Lamar Jackson on a bye?” conversation next week. I hope that comes through as that would be awfully helpful for all of us Jackson managers who refuse to roster a secondary QB.

Time will tell on that front — there’s nothing you need to do this weekend.

Week 13 Fantasy Football Running Backs

Aaron Jones, RB | MIN (vs. ARI)

Aaron Jones had himself an up-and-down Week 12 in Chicago, but he finished with 129 yards and a score, a level of production we will take every single time.

Jones lost a goal-line fumble on the first drive, but the team didn’t blink and continued to bank on him as their bellcow. He rewarded them with a 41-yard run later in the first half and, when all was said and done, his third RB1 finish of the season.

I still think Cam Akers is a handcuff back work rostering, but this isn’t a committee, and the safe volume is going to land Jones inside of my top 20 every week moving forward. The Cardinals are allowing points on 43.7% of opponent drives this season (seventh-worst) and the Vikings project to be dictating the tempo in this spot.

Alexander Mattison, RB | LV (at KC)

An ankle injury sidelined Alexander Mattison last week, and given Ameer Abdullah’s success in the passing game, I don’t think there’s a path to him getting even remotely close to my starting tier of Flex options this week against a stingy Chiefs defense.

Or … really against any defense.

Mattison is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry this season and hasn’t had a 15-yard run since September. A plodding back like this needs to carry significant scoring equity to have our attention, and that’s not the case as a part of the 26th-ranked scoring offense.

Alvin Kamara, RB | NO (vs. LAR)

Alvin Kamara has been among the most consistent performers in our game this season (top-20 back in nine of 11 games, including each of his past four), and it seems that run of production coming off of his bye is slowed by the defense that allows the sixth most points per drive to opposing offenses.

Am I in love with his profile? I’m not. Kamara’s fantasy point total has been below expectations in eight of his past nine, and he doesn’t have a 25-yard rush this season (183 attempts), but the versatility (eight straight games with at least four receptions) and volume mask those concerns.

If you want to use the limited ceiling potential that comes with efficiency as a reason to look elsewhere when constructing your main-slate DFS roster, go for it. When it comes to season-long, you’re playing Kamara without a second thought.

Ameer Abdullah, RB | LV (at KC)

Zamir White (quad) and Alexander Mattison (ankle) sat out last week against the Broncos, and Ameer Abdullah took full advantage with 65 yards, five receptions, and a touchdown. The role in the passing game is his path to value, and I think it is reasonably sustainable, but only if the two backs ahead of him are again sidelined.

For his career, Abdullah is averaging 4.0 yards per carry with just seven scores on 453 attempts. His ability to pick up cheap points in the passing game holds value in this spot as a significant underdog, though I question the touch upside if he has any competition for touches.

You’re ignoring Abdullah if this situation doesn’t open up. If it does, he’ll threaten my top 30 at the position and thus be a viable Flex option in PPR formats.

Audric Estimé, RB | DEN (vs. CLE)

In Week 10 against the Chiefs, we thought we saw a changing of the guard in Denver. In Week 11, we were less sure, but Audric Estimé did catch three passes, and that at least allowed us to retain some hope that the fifth-round rookie could carve out a niche in this creative Sean Payton offense with a breaking out Bo Nix.

Those hopes, however, were dashed against the Raiders on Sunday — three carries and zero targets. Payton pretty clearly has commitment issues when it comes to the hierarchy of his backfield (six different players had a carry), and with Nix moving the ball around (nine players saw a target in Week 12), I can’t imagine a world in which you’re feeling confident enough to plug in Estimé at any point moving forward.

There are players on your waiver wire that have more scoring equity than Estimé.

Austin Ekeler, RB | WAS (vs. TEN)

I’ve been impressed with Autin Ekeler in his age-29 season, but the scary concussion at the end of last week has him likely to sit out at least this week. I’d keep him rostered for the short term with Brian Robinson Jr. (ankle) also at less than full strength, but you’ll have to stay on top of the news with this situation.

A multi-week projected absence would open you up to the potential of cutting ties for an asset that has a better chance of helping you qualify for the fantasy playoffs.

Bijan Robinson, RB | ATL (vs. LAC)

It’s funny how impactful creativity can be, isn’t it? Arthur Smith was unwilling to explore new-age play-calling a season ago, and that limited the Falcons’ potential across the board. This year? Different story. For Bijan Robinson …

• 2023: 32.2% vs loaded boxes
• 2024: 15.6% vs loaded boxes

His fantasy stock has also gained stability by seeing at least four targets in six straight games; with the variety of looks, Robinson’s raw talent is shining through with more regularity (he has a 15+ yard catch and rush in two of his past three games).

With Atlanta in an advantageous rest spot this week, I think they can be just fine against Los Angeles’ elite defense. Robinson is capable of taking over at a moment’s notice, and that fact, coming off a bye, lands him as a top-five running back for me this weekend.

Braelon Allen, RB | NYJ (vs. SEA)

There are more things wrong with the Jets than I have time to explain (keep reading, I’ll try). In short, New York’s offense isn’t functioning at a level to support All-Pros, making it impossible for a rookie like Braelon Allen to carve out any sort of meaningful role.

The explosive Wisconsin product caught six passes over his first three professional games, but Allen has only managed to haul in four since and has a total of 14 touches on his résumé over the past three weeks.

Long term, I think there’s a world in which Allen takes a step forward in Year 2 to form a dangerous backfield with Breece Hall. Yet, without volume or splash ability (none of his 72 touches this season have gained more than 20 yards), there’s not much to see here.

As a handcuff — if you have the luxury, sure, but are we sure that there is a single role in Gotham City these days that is a lock to be fantasy viable?

Breece Hall, RB | NYJ (vs. SEA)

Breece Hall is rounding into form at the perfect time, though speculation surrounding Aaron Rodgers’ status moving forward serves as something that DFS managers will need to track — there’s no actionable move for redraft managers setting lineups for this week if a change is made.

• Week 8 at New England Patriots: 31.6% below expectations
• Week 9 vs. Houston Texans: 19.4% below expectations
• Week 10 at Arizona Cardinals: 10.7% above expectations
• Week 11 vs. Indianapolis Colts: 73.4% above expectations

Hall recorded a season-high 23 touches in the loss to the Colts, and that volume allowed him to score twice, doubling his total from the previous seven games. We are looking at an elite talent in a tough spot — he’s the 2024 version of 2023 Bijan Robinson, to a degree.

I like him to post his eighth top-20 finish of the season regardless of the situation under center, but I would remove top-five upside (three such finishes this season) from his profile should Rodgers be sat down.

Brian Robinson Jr., RB | WAS (vs. TEN)

Brian Robinson Jr. was injured early last week (ankle) and returned shortly before calling it a day. Austin Ekeler suffered a scary concussion late in the game, leaving this backfield as an unknown as we prepare for Week 13.

It is worth noting that the team signed Chris Rodriguez Jr. to the active roster on Tuesday, though I’m reading that as more of an insurance on Ekeler than anything. Robinson’s versatility has vanished this season, and without a 20-yard gain since Week 2 (vs. New York Giants), this is a profile that will have a problem producing viable numbers if his touch count is managed.

The Titans are tied for the third-worst red-zone defense in the NFL, opening the door for Robinson to reward your loyalty with a score, but the capped ceiling keeps him in the low-end RB2 tier without much upward trajectory.

Bucky Irving, RB | TB (at CAR)

Rookie running backs over the past decade have multiple games with at least 40 rushing yards and six receptions:

• Alvin Kamara (five)
• Saquon Barkley (four)
• Najee Harris (three)
• James Robinson (two)
• Bijan Robinson (two)
• Bucky Irving (two).

Now that’s a list. Irving might be on the fast track to fantasy stardom, and while I don’t think we are there yet, he’s made this backfield hierarchy easier to sort out.

The short Sean Tucker rushing score on the first drive last week was annoying, but you have to take the bad with the good. Irving was responsible for six of Baker Mayfield’s first 16 completions in Week 12, a level of involvement that is more than enough to lock in.

• Weeks 10-12: 55% red-zone snap share (Rachaad White: 45%)
• Weeks 1-9: 44% red-zone snap share (Rachaad White: 67.7%)

In terms of success rate, the Panthers own the second-worst rush defense in all the land, and there is no question that Irving holds the edge over White between the tackles. The rookie is to be considered an RB2 this week, and I think that ranking sticks for the remainder of the season.

Cam Akers, RB | MIN (vs. ARI)

Cam Akers remains the definitive handcuff to Aaron Jones and nothing more. He’ll slide into the back end of my RB2 rankings should Jones end up missing time for any reason, but he’ll remain comfortably outside of my top 30 any week that’s not the case, and that’s where we stand right now.

Chase Brown, RB | CIN (vs. PIT)

Chase Brown has three straight top-10 finishes, a streak not amassed by Alvin Kamara, Breece Hall, Jahmyr Gibbs, or De’Von Achane this season. He’s been nothing short of special, and there’s really no reason to think we will see that change any time soon.

Brown has at least five receptions in three consecutive games (82 touches with 16 coming in the red zone over that stretch) and has ripped off a 20-yard carry in four of his past six contests. The efficiency on the ground hasn’t been there lately (last five games: 3.6 yards per carry), but as a focal point of this elite offense, there’s no reason to nitpick.

Christian McCaffrey, RB | SF (at BUF)

We waited over two months for Christian McCaffrey to return with the thought being that he’d be the 1.01 the second he took the field.

Safe to say that hasn’t been the case.

Despite being thrown into his bell-cow role from the jump, CMC has more fumbles lost than touchdowns three weeks into his season and hasn’t showcased the game-breaking potential that we’ve associated with him for years. Last season, 16.2% of his carries gained 10+ yards, a rate that currently sits at 7% (for reference, Ameer Abdullah’s rate is 8%).

You’re starting McCaffrey, there’s no two ways about that, but I can in good faith keep him on the top line, even if Brock Purdy returns — he’s my RB4 for this week.

Chuba Hubbard, RB | CAR (vs. TB)

Until the usage changes, there’s no reason to hesitate in playing Chuba Hubbard — he’s cleared 18.5 expected fantasy points in three straight games, his second such streak of the season. Jonathon Brooks made his season debut against the Chiefs on Sunday, but that wasn’t enough to stop the recently extended Hubbard from getting another 21 opportunities (rush attempts + targets).

The Bucs have allowed a touchdown on 25.9% of opponent drives this season, the sixth-highest rate in the league and one that the upward-trending Panthers could take advantage of. Hubbard has found the end zone eight times this season for the 29th-ranked scoring offense, serving as a good reminder that, while the offensive environment is critical, it’s not to be used as gospel.

The only rule of fantasy sports is that there is an exception to every rule. I encourage you to evaluate every situation as its own thing as opposed to casting a wide net (i.e. avoid all players on poorly projected offenses).

D’Andre Swift, RB | CHI (at DET)

We’ve seen the number of touchdown vultures decline with time, so managers with D’Andre Swift have to feel like they ran into some awful luck with Roschon Johnson routinely swooping in to end drives (he’s converted all six of his carries from the one-yard line this season).

You couldn’t have seen this coming, so there’s nothing to worry about from a process standpoint, and I still think you’re OK starting Swift weekly, albeit with a capped ceiling due to the limited scoring equity.

With Caleb Williams running for his life last week, he lobbed a 30-yard dime to Swift, a completion that was special, but his attempting the pass is what I like. No, situations like that aren’t always going to present themselves, but Williams’ faith in his lead back is great to see.

Swift has produced viable fantasy numbers in seven of his past eight games, thanks in large part to the volume that I think you can count on (16+ touches in eight straight). The Lions own the second-best red-zone defense through 12 weeks — Swift’s path to a top-10 finish isn’t clear, but he’s a fine bet to give you RB2 production, and that’s good enough.

David Montgomery, RB | DET (vs. CHI)

David Montgomery suffered a shoulder injury last week and didn’t practice on Monday as a recovery day, but he’s been back on the field since, and Dan Campbell has expressed optimism about his pounding back being available despite the short turnaround.

I’ve adjusted my projections for the touchdown savant this week, but not in such a way that you consider benching him. I’ve dialed back his usage between the 20s as a result of the short week and the competitive nature of Weeks 14-15 (home games against the Packers and Bills).

Detroit wants the top seed in the conference and will work hard to get it during the fantasy playoffs for you, but you might have to be patient this week. Montgomery has scored in nine of 11 games this season, and extending that streak is certainly possible, but asking for him to touch the ball 15+ times is a step I’m not willing to take. That introduces a little bit of a floor that we don’t usually need to weigh.

Derrick Henry, RB | BAL (vs. PHI)

On Monday night, the Chargers loaded the box for 70.8% of Derrick Henry’s carries. Guess what? It didn’t matter. He cleared 130 rushing yards for the fifth time this season and, despite all of the defensive attention and limited versatility (he hasn’t had a multi-target game since September), he’s delivered at least 10% over his expected points in 11 of 12 games this season.

His Week 12 performance wasn’t jaw-dropping like that of Saquon Barkley, and that has resulted in him falling back a touch in the race for Offensive Player of the Year honors. Still, he authored the exact type of performance you drafted him for – a tough matchup in the second half of the season where he just grinds out production.

The scary part is that his Barkley moment could be coming. Perhaps not this week as he plays on short rest (and for the 13th consecutive week), but maybe against the Giants after the Week 14 bye? Maybe against the Texans on Christmas day, a contest where the defense will be asked to recover in time to tackle The King just three days after dealing with Patrick Mahomes?

You’re sitting pretty if you roster Henry, even if the upcoming bye week is annoying.

Devin Singletary, RB | NYG (at DAL)

Devin Singletary punched in a meaningless touchdown last week, and that gives him more fantasy points than his fading role would suggest likely. The experienced back has essentially been completely phased out of this offense, and that means he should be on waiver wires across the board.

In theory, he’s the Tyrone Tracy Jr. handcuff, but if the talented rookie were to go down, would you really be itching to play a backup RB in an offense that is rarely projected to reach 20 points?

De’Von Achane, RB | MIA (at GB)

That’s five straight games with at least 6.5 PPR points as a pass catcher for De’Von Achane as this offense appears motivated to cater to what their explosive RB1 does well.

His two touchdown receptions last week against the Patriots were artistic. Remember the Frogger episode of Seinfeld where George is systematically navigating New York traffic with the machine? That’s what these Achane screens and quick hitters remind me of, as the Dolphins excel at timing it and setting up their blockers.

Of course, that episode ends with George ultimately losing the game, and that’s where this comparison falls flat — I’m not sure defenses are fast enough to stop these plays when it is run to perfection. Achane has finished four of his past five games as a top-10 fantasy running back; with the Packers’ defense ranking 27th in EPA against the run, I don’t think this is a roadblock in the slightest.

I think this is a competitive game, but even if it were to slant in either direction, Achane is essentially script-proof. That is the driving force behind him being my top-ranked running back for Week 13.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB | DAL (vs. NYG)

The Cowboys led for 74.2% of their second-half offensive snaps last week against Washington, yet Ezekiel Elliott was trusted with just three touches. There isn’t going to be a game more geared toward them banking on the veteran back between the tackles, so if three touches are on the high end of expectations, there’s no reason to hold onto Elliott at this point.

This offense projects among the worst in the league moving forward, and that means that even if Rico Dowdle were to get banged up, Elliott wouldn’t walk into fantasy starting lineups. Without a path to mattering, why would you burn a roster spot this way?

Gus Edwards, RB | LAC (at ATL)

If you play in some bizarro league where you started Gus Edwards last week, you were rewarded with a late touchdown. Even that was fortunate as the Chargers were in pass mode before a penalty put them at the one-yard line and in need of his services.

While the end result was adequate, he did have two carries (12 yards) on the first drive as Jim Harbaugh continued to give us signs that he wanted a committee backfield over a featured situation.

He might not have that luxury this weekend after J.K. Dobbins didn’t play the second half on Monday night due to a knee injury. For a player who has had his troubles staying healthy (he already has a career-high carry count by 24 this season), asking him to play on short rest for a playoff-bound team feels a bit aggressive, leaving a near bell-cow role available for Edwards to assume on Sunday.

The matchup isn’t a worry (Atlanta allows the fourth-most points per drive this season) and fantasy teams, like the real ones, are battling injuries left and right, so I get it if you are left in a spot where you have no other options. That said, even with a spike in projected work, I just can’t get there with ranking Edwards as an RB2.

Through 12 weeks, he ranks 50th of 54 qualifiers in our elusive rating metric (ahead of two Raiders, a Jaguar who has been borderline benched at times this season, and a Chief who was signed off his couch at the end of September). I don’t see that changing, as defenses know what is coming their way with him on the field.

For his career, Edwards has averaged just over one target every two games, a lack of versatility that is a death sentence if not sufficient on the ground.

You can chase this volume if you’d like – you just need to be aware that the floor remains low.

Isiah Pacheco, RB | KC (vs. LV)

There was cautious optimism entering last week that Isiah Pacheco (leg) would return to action against the Panthers, but Andy Reid ultimately ruled him out on Friday, opting to not bring him back on the heels of a short week.

A return to action on Black Friday makes all the sense in the world — Kansas City is heavily favored and will have something of a mini-bye heading into Week 14, allowing its star running back an extra 48 hours to recover.

I’m treating Pacheco as a fantasy manager exactly how I anticipate the Chiefs to — patience. They have no motivation to rush him back like the 49ers did with Christian McCaffrey, and that has me labeling 11-13 touches as a much more likely outcome than the 20.5 he averaged through the first two weeks this season.

The loss to the Bills in Week 11 could well prove to be a result that impacts fantasy championships in a major way. With Buffalo remaining in the chase for the top seed, Kansas City could be motivated to deploy Pacheco at full capacity sooner than they would have otherwise.

I have Kareem Hunt (RB2) ranked ahead of Pacheco (Flex) for this week, but I’m anticipating that flipping for Week 14 and this to be the Pacheco show during the fantasy playoffs, presuming he can escape the next few weeks without a setback.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | DET (vs. CHI)

Jahmyr Gibbs was great last season and produced 7.7% over PPR expectations — he’s at +40.1% through 12 weeks this season!

He certainly has some early career Saquon Barkley to him, and with Detroit feeding him their first two carries inside the five last week, is it possible that they think that expanding his role with the playoffs coming up optimizes their offense?

Gibbs hasn’t finished worse than RB22 this season; that may not sound overly impressive, but when you consider the fact that Barkley has three finishes worse than that, it contextualizes just how special this kid has been in his second season.

James Conner, RB | ARI (at MIN)

Week 12 was a mess for the Cardinals in all regards, and yet James Conner did his best to keep you competitive with his second straight five-catch performance. He has now finished each of his past five contests as a top-20 back, and while he lacks the ceiling of a Jonathan Taylor or a James Cook, he deserves to be ranked right alongside them, if not ahead.

Conner currently ranks fifth in the league in carries inside the opponent’s 25-yard line (Joe Mixon, Kyren Williams, Saquon Barkley, and David Montgomery are the only players with more), and I’ll take that to the bank against the sixth-worst red-zone defense in the league.

It’s OK to have long-term health concerns, but until we see signs of decline, you’re playing him without any thought.

James Cook, RB | BUF (vs. SF)

James Cook has returned great profits on your investment this summer with six RB1 finishes this season, including in three of his past four games as he trends toward matchup-proof status.

Cook has remained plenty involved in the passing game (15 targets over his past three games), but there is no denying that his biggest growth from last season to this one is in his ability to find paydirt with eight more rushing scores this year on 100 fewer carries than 2023.

The spiking touchdown rate has fueled a 23.8% increase in PPR points per touch for Cook, and while Ray Davis has looked the part when given the opportunity, it’s clear that Buffalo is comfortable with a bell-cow situation.

The 49ers own a top-10 run defense in nearly every metric you should be interested in, and while that hurts the upside case for Cook this week, his volume and versatility keep him ranked as a must-start in all formats without much question.

Javonte Williams, RB | DEN (vs. CLE)

Think all the way back to Sunday’s Broncos game. You probably remember Bo Nix making plays, a Courtland Sutton touchdown or two, and maybe even the chunk play from Marvin Mims Jr.

Think really hard.

Do you remember anything from Javonte Williams?

I had him on a DFS roster and got paid to watch this stuff, and my answer is “no”. A look back at the stats confirms — nope, nothing of note.

Nothing positive at least.

From Week 18 of 2021 through Week 12 of 2024, there have been 2,032 instances in which a player had at least eight carries in a game, and none of them averaged fewer yards per carry before contact than Williams on Sunday against, of all teams, the Raiders.

Minus 2.13 yards.

The average distance a running back lines up behind the line of scrimmage is roughly seven yards. That means that, with zero resistance and a designed dive, you’d expect him to meet the defenders 3.5 yards behind the line of scrimmage.

What Williams did on Sunday wasn’t much better than that, and that’s with an offensive line of full-grown men blocking for him with full knowledge of where the play is going, an advantage that the defense clearly doesn’t have.

Entering Week 12, the Raiders ranked 12th in preventing running back yards per carry before contact, a nice ranking, but it’s not as if this is an all-time defense or anything like that. What the Broncos put on tape last season was a problem. A big problem. Williams was the victim on Sunday, but I can’t imagine starting any of their running backs in even the deepest of formats right now.

Sean Payton involves the running backs in the passing game, and that’s great, but with three mouths to feed and only one viable outlet to do so — you’re asking for trouble if you invest in any capacity here.

Jaylen Warren, RB | PIT (at CIN)

Jaylen Warren played a season-high 56.7% of the snaps against the Browns and upped his season rate in percentage of carries gaining 5+ yards to 34.7%. With Najee Harris’ production fading, could Warren finally be given the work we’ve been begging for at the exact right time?

I loved that he cashed in a three-yard touchdown last week, and the upcoming schedule figures to put pressure on this offense to throw more than they want.

• Week 13 at Cincinnati Bengals
• Week 14 vs. Cleveland Browns
• Week 15 at Philadelphia Eagles
• Week 16 at Baltimore Ravens
• Week 17 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

That’s the type of schedule that favors Warren over Harris. I have the two ranked next to each other for the rest of the season, both in the Flex tier, a damning move given the edge in volume Harris currently holds.

There’s always a risk involved with a player whose 14 touches last week feel closer to a projectable touch ceiling, and I don’t think that is going to change this weekend or moving forward. That said, if the recent trends are sustained, Warren is positioned to be the most valuable member of this backfield down the stretch.

Jaylen Wright, RB | MIA (at GB)

The Dolphins used a tricky reverse that featured a no-look pitch from Tua Tagvailoa to Jaylen Wright last weekend, something that is proof positive that they want to explore what this explosive rookie can do.

It’s going to take more than gadget plays for Wright to trend near the Flex radar, but he’s pretty clearly working ahead of Raheem Mostert, and that makes him a De’Von Achane handcuff at the very least.

It’s probably too late into the season for Wright to carve out a role that is going to give him enough stand-alone value to ever project as a strong start for me, but this team is in desperation mode, and it wouldn’t shock me if we saw more creative designs like this moving forward.

Jeremy McNichols, RB | WAS (vs. TEN)

Jeremy McNichols has averaged 4.9 yards per carry this season with four scores on 44 attempts — strong numbers, albeit in a tiny sample size. The Commanders haven’t shown a great interest in ramping up his usage, but with Brian Robinson Jr. (ankle) and Austin Ekeler (concussion) suffering injuries last week, the path to increased usage is clear.

Little is known about the journey back, as he has 176 touches over his eight seasons in the NFL. We did see him average two catches per game with the Titans back in 2021 (revenge game!), giving me hope that a day with 12-14 carries and 3-5 targets is within the realm of possibilities should both Robinson and Ekeler sit.

If that’s the case, we are looking at a viable Flex option in all formats.

Jerome Ford, CLE (at DEN)

Jerome Ford continues to work behind Nick Chubb, and if there was ever a chance for him to see his usage increase, it would have been last week in a poor-weather game with an elite defense on the other side. If there was a situation to start Chubb, that was it.

Browns RB usage, Week 12:

• Chubb: 63.6% snaps, 20 carries, and one target
• Ford: 36.4% snaps, four carries, and one target

It didn’t happen. If you want to roster Ford as a Chubb handcuff, knock yourself out. In an instance where he takes over the RB1 role, I think this offense is better positioned now for him to succeed than it was back in September, so there’s merit to hanging onto him for depth purposes.

Until that injury/rest situation, however, Ford doesn’t deserve to be anywhere near starting lineups.

J.K. Dobbins, RB | LAC (at ATL)

I thought J.K. Dobbins was running hard on Monday night against a stingy Ravens run defense and I was thrilled to see his number called on 11 of their first 24 plays (six carries and five targets), but a knee injury ended his night before halftime and we’ve seen this story before for the 25-year-old.

Dobbins was drafted in 2020 and has appeared in 35 of a possible 78 regular season games (44.9%). We don’t yet have clarity on the injury, but on a short week at this point in the season and the Chargers more focused on making nice in late January than early December, I think it’s plenty reasonable to sit Dobbins on your bench right now and pivot if the news takes an optimistic turn.

Los Angeles’ lead running back was more productive early this season than I would have ever expected. While he has shown some splash play ability of late, there’s no denying that he peaked in September. Even if deemed healthy, I won’t be ranking Dobbins as high as you want me to, fearing that even a slightly compromised version of him could see less volume, and that’s been the driving force to his value.

This season, his PPR points per touch, stuff rate, and yards per carry after contact are all below his career norm despite the lowest loaded box rate of his career. Gus Edwards punched in a short score on Monday night. If Dobbins gives up the inside-the-10 work, we could be looking at an awfully thin profile moving forward.

I’m ranking this backfield, at the moment, as if they will not have Dobbins at their disposal in Week 13.

Joe Mixon, RB | HOU (at JAX)

Joe Mixon has finished each of his past seven games as a fantasy starter, a run of production that includes five top-eight finishes. His volume on the ground is as reliable as anyone this side of Derrick Henry, but how about a spike in passing-game usage last week with the game on the line?

C.J. Stroud clearly has unwavering trust in his bell-cow back, and that makes him a script-proof RB1 that you can take to the bank weekly. You got a great bargain on draft day in Mixon — it’s now on you to finish the deal with a championship!

Jonathan Taylor, RB | IND (at NE)

The return of Anthony Richardson under center has decimated Jonathan Taylor’s efficiency. In those two games, Taylor has produced 58.4% under expectations (36 touches for 95 yards and zero scores). Are the recent struggles based on the quarterback? Based on the matchups?

The answer, of course, is somewhere in the middle. Richardson’s rushing equity could eat into Taylor’s the way many feared Jalen Hurts’ would to Saquon Barkley’s, but the Lions and Jets also have plenty of talent on the defensive end of the ball, so that can’t be overlooked.

The Patriots, by EPA, have a below-average run defense, and I think that gives Taylor a chance to post his second top-10 finish of the season as he gets back to the role of 18-22 touches that he had been penciled in for before the one-sided game against Detroit last week.

It’s okay to be disappointed with what you’ve seen from Taylor lately, but it’s not okay to bench him.

Jonathon Brooks, RB | CAR (vs. TB)

Jonathon Brooks played 8.6% of the snaps last week in his professional debut (Chuba Hubbard: 87.9%), picking up seven yards on his two carries against the Chiefs. I expect the team to slowly ramp up his usage to give him a taste of the NFL game, but I’d be surprised if he got much past 10 touches in any game this season. That means he’s unlikely to grace my top 30 at any point.

If he’s going to impact fantasy leagues this season, it’s because he cashes in a red-zone carry, and the manager with Chuba Hubbard falls out of the playoffs as a result of the missed opportunity. Brooks is an interesting name to keep track of for next season — I’m holding for this week to see what the team does with his usage and cutting ties if we don’t see some serious growth.

Jordan Mason, RB | SF (at BUF)

Jordan Mason has been on the field for just 8.5% of San Francisco’s offensive snaps since Christian McCaffrey returned and has no path to earning more work outside of an injury to the team’s starter.

With their season on the line, the 49ers are likely to ride McCaffrey as hard now as ever, and while that doesn’t mean anything for Mason this week, every touch added to a role increases health risk; that is why I’d hold onto Mason if you have the space as we prepare for the stretch run.

If the 49ers fall this week, do they try to manage McCaffrey and make sure he leaves the season in one piece? That might be overthinking things, but it’s possible, and that would make Mason an impact player during the fantasy postseason.

Josh Jacobs, RB | GB (vs. MIA)

Josh Jacobs has cleared PPR fantasy expectations by 29% over his past five games (four games with 20+ points over that stretch) and seems to be getting stronger with time. I don’t think he’s a threat to push into the top tier at the position, but with three top-five finishes over the past month, he’s carrying your fantasy team right now.

I think there’s a little more risk in Jacobs’ profile than is assumed by most (four games this season with under one yard per carry before contact), but that’s nitpicking. He recorded seven red-zone touches last week against the 49ers (tied for the fourth most in a game during his career), and his role is more than enough to overcome any of my minor concerns.

Justice Hill, RB | BAL (vs. PHI)

Justice Hill took a carry 51 yards to the house against the Chargers on Monday night, his first run gaining more than nine yards since September. I’m not sure he’s a direct handcuff to Derrick Henry, but with an 84.6% catch rate this season, he’d just need 10-12 carries to work into the Flex conversation.

It’s clear that is not going to happen at the moment, but I’m more sold on that being projectable if Henry were to get dinged up, and that makes Hill a fine stash that you can plug in if pressed, something that I don’t think you can really say for other handcuffs like Ray Davis or Jaylen Wright.

Kareem Hunt, RB | KC (vs. LV)

I’ve been consistent in this train of thought, and I’m sticking with it — Kareem Hunt is a fantasy starter until we see Isiah Pacheco make it through a game without a setback. The presumed starter was inactive last week after some momentum had built surrounding his return to action, and while he is expected back on Black Friday, this team isn’t motivated to push the envelope.

Hunt has at least 19 touches in six of his past seven games, giving him room to surrender some work without falling outside of my top 24 at the position. The Chiefs may not be lighting up the scoreboard like we want them to, but 22.5% of Hunt’s touches this season have come in the red zone; that’s a role I want in my starting lineup against a Raiders defense that allows the fifth-most points per drive.

Kenneth Walker III, RB | SEA (at NYJ)

Kenneth Walker III has multiple catches in every one of his games this season and has earned 5+ targets in five games this season. If you gave me that sentence in August without any other context, I would have told you that he had a shot at being the top-scoring running back in our game.

That, of course, hasn’t been the case. We haven’t seen the explosive plays that we penciled in as part of Walker’s profile. Heck, we haven’t seen even league-average production over the past month.

Walker doesn’t have a 30-yard run this season and has averaged under 4.0 yards per carry in back-to-back-to-back-to-back games. He has a stranglehold on the lead role in Seattle, and that role slots him into my top 20 without much thought.

Maybe we can get a spike performance against an underachieving Jets run defense that ranks 20th in terms of EPA. I’m hopeful, but at the very least, you can lock in 14-16 carries and 3-5 targets in an above-average offense.

Khalil Herbert, RB | CIN (vs. PIT)

Khalil Herbert, for me, isn’t in the same tier as a Ray Davis or Tyler Allgeier handcuff, and thus he can be cut loose as the value of every single roster spot increases down the stretch.

Chase Brown is being used as a true bell cow, and while Herbert is technically the next man up, his playing just 3.9% of Cincinnati’s offensive snaps since being acquired indicates that, even should an injury occur, this team isn’t ready to unleash the former Bear.

Instead of hanging onto Herbert, I’d rather roster a boom/bust receiver that has access to a weekly ceiling and can thus help me out if I’m in desperation mode.

Kyren Williams, RB | LAR (at NO)

Kyren Williams finally got back into the end zone on Sunday night against the Eagles, allowing him to return enough in the way of fantasy production to be deserving of lineup-lock status.

OK, “finally” was a bit dramatic. Three straight games without a touchdown happen to most players in the NFL, but we just notice it more when it happens on the heels of a 10-game regular season scoring streak.

His role on the doorstep is as safe as any RB in the league, and with at least 15 carries in nine straight games, there’s no reason to waste any brain power on lineup decisions surrounding Williams.

Having said that, I have zero interest in going this direction in the DFS streets. Not only do the Saints own the sixth-best red zone defense in the league but Williams has been phased out of the passing game recently with zero targets in consecutive contests. He’s also put the ball on the ground four times in November (two lost fumbles), another red flag.

Williams sits just outside of the top 10 for me this week. That’s about where I expect him to settle weekly moving forward.

MarShawn Lloyd, RB | GB (vs. MIA)

Appendicitis landed MarShawn Lloyd on the reserve/NFI list in the middle of last week, resulting in another four-week absence at the minimum and almost assuredly ending his rookie campaign.

There’s no need to continue holding onto Lloyd in redraft leagues. Josh Jacobs is under contract for another three seasons, making redraft value a long shot next season for Lloyd in anything but a handcuff capacity.

Najee Harris, RB | PIT (at CIN)

We entered this season with concerns about Najee Harris’ efficiency, and we fell for it. You and me both. We fell for three strong weeks, and I’m disappointed in us as a collective.

• Weeks 6-8: 25.2% over expectation, 16.7% stuff rate, and 20.4% explosive rate
• Weeks 10-12: 26.8% under expectation, 29.1% stuff rate, and 9.1% explosive rate

That’s not to say that he can’t be trusted in fantasy lineups. I still believe in the trajectory of this offense as a whole, and Harris finishing with at least 18 touches in five straight games holds significant value this time of year, but I think the week-winning upside that we had some access to earlier is gone.

The Bengals are a vulnerable defense as a whole, but running backs have produced 10.5% under expectations against them this season; with them coming off a bye, they figure to be as fresh as a team can be this time of year.

Proceed with caution, both for Week 13 and the rest of the way.

Nick Chubb, RB | CLE (at DEN)

The two touchdowns, including the game-winner, were nice to see from Nick Chubb on Thursday night, but be careful. This season, just 4.1% of his carries have gained 10+ yards, far below his career norm entering this season (15.8%).

He’s not at the peak of his powers, but to my eye, he is running hard. That said, how far can a profile like Chubb’s go when he is picking up just 0.4 yards per carry before first contact?

The Browns have nothing but brutal matchups or explosive offenses left on their schedule, a concern for a script-dependent back like Chubb who has, checks notes, negative three receiving yards over the past month. There’s low-end Flex value here for as long as he holds the RB1 role in this offense, a role I don’t see leaving him — there’s just not much upward mobility in terms of my projections.

Rachaad White, RB | TB (at CAR)

Tampa Bay’s backfield is very clearly trending away from Rachaad White, but he is holding onto Flex value this week thanks to his versatility and a matchup with the worst defense in the league when it comes to points allowed per drive.

Buccaneers RB snaps shares, Week 12:

• Bucky Irving: 54.8%
• White: 46.8%
• Sean Tucker: 8.1%

The Sean Tucker thing is what could be a problem. If his role gets expanded, a three-back committee is difficult to feel good about. White has earned at least six targets or run for a score in five straight games, a form that slides him inside my top 35 at the position, even as I continue putting air in Irving’s tires.

Raheem Mostert, RB | MIA (at GB)

Raheem Mostert was Miami’s David Montgomery a season ago, but those days are gone. Long gone. The veteran back played 30.3% of the Dolphins’ snaps in last week’s one-sided win over the Patriots, and while that is an uptick over his recent usage patterns, I view it as a net negative.

His time on the field doubled due to a blowout — I don’t want to be harsh, but that tells me that this team doesn’t value his snaps in a meaningful way. The three games before last week were more competitive, and in those contests, something that I think is much more representative of what we see on Thanksgiving, the trends were pointing in the wrong direction:

• Week 9 at Buffalo Bills: 23.3%
• Week 10 at Los Angeles Rams: 15.1%
• Week 11 vs. Las Vegas Raiders: 14.1%

Miami appears interested in getting rookie Jaylen Wright more work, but they’ve shown zero interest in going back to the man who found pay dirt 21 times just a season ago. I’m perfectly fine with you holding a De’Von Achane handcuff on your bench — Mostert just isn’t the right way to do that, and he is far from a must-roster player at this point.

Ray Davis, RB | BUF (vs. SF)

Ray Davis is exactly the type of player I want this time of year — no temptation to play weekly but a top-20 upside if a role opens up

Since burying the New York Jets in Week 6 with James Cook sidelined, Davis hasn’t played more than 23% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps in a single game. He’s the clear handcuff in this offense, and there is value in that if you have a good team that is positioning itself for a deep playoff run.

However, if your team is clawing for every win to qualify for the postseason, you might be forced to make a tough call on a player like Davis. There’s no path to stand-alone value as long as Cook is healthy; with that currently the case, cutting Davis is reasonable if you’re trying to maximize your Week 13 roster.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | NE (vs. IND)

Rhamondre Stevenson hasn’t scored in three straight games, and his production relative to expectations over that stretch is -41.1%. He now has five games this season with single-digit PPR points — three games with under five points to offset his three 20+ point games.

The game script was an issue for New England last week (five carries for 11 yards in the first 30 minutes with the Pats down 24-0) and, as expected, Stevenson was rendered useless in the second half.

I’m confident that Stevenson is the featured back in this offense, but I’m just as confident that he can’t make the carries count (2.8 yards per carry over his past six games). He’s as underwhelming as any featured back in the game and thus checks in as nothing more than an average Flex.

Rico Dowdle, RB | DAL (vs. NYG)

Rico Dowdle lost the first fumble of his career against the Commanders last weekend, but this team lacks secondary options, and that means his volume, albeit limited in value, is safe (22 touches).

That level of involvement was made possible due to a competitive game script, something that is more likely than not to be the case this week as well. Dowdle has a trio of top-20 finishes this year and, over his past five games, has seen an average of 4.6 passes thrown his way.

The volume has proven to be a saving grace (112 rushes without a touchdown this season, and he doesn’t have a touch gaining more than 10 yards in a Cooper Rush start), and as long as that is the case, Dowdle is going to be someone I’m comfortable starting in most formats.

Roschon Johnson, RB | CHI (at DET)

• Roschon Johnson: 6
• David Montgomery: 5
• Derrick Henry: 4
• Kenneth Walker: 4
• Jahmyr Gibbs: 4

Yep, that’s the running back leaderboard in one-yard touchdowns through 12 weeks. Johnson had two touchdowns on his NFL résumé entering this season, but the Bears have unleashed him as their vulture in the post-Justin Fields era, and it’s paying off (he’s 6-for-6 on such attempts).

This season, the second-year back is averaging just 5.9 touches per game, and while the scoring equity is nice to have on your roster, there’s no reason to reach this far in the rankings to fill out your Week 13 lineup.

Might there be a time and place for Johnson? I could see it if you’re battling injuries in a deeper format — this just isn’t that spot in a game where I don’t see the Bears consistently threatening the red zone.

Saquon Barkley, RB | PHI (at BAL)

And you thought the backward hurdle was going to be the highlight of this magical season for Saquon Barkley?

Saquon Barkley’s 46.2 PPR fantasy points last night set his new career high, and gave him a commanding lead in the category among running backs (265.9, +39.8 on No. 2). Remarkably, he has had a better 11-game start to a season, scoring 286.0 points through 11 as a rookie in 2018.

— Tristan H. Cockcroft (@SultanofStat) November 25, 2024

I just don’t know what you’re supposed to do defensively. Barkley exposed the dangers of loading the box against him, but are opponents supposed to just let this offensive line manhandle them and hope their linebackers can make a tackle in space?

Barkley’s average yards per carry before contact have nearly tripled from a year ago. The All-Pro has at least as many 10-yard gains as carries that have failed to gain yardage in five of his past six games, a rate that is almost unheard of.

The NFL MVP? I’d still very much bet against it, but the fantasy football MVP is very much his to lose. Would you draft him first overall in 2025?

Tank Bigsby, RB | JAX (vs. HOU)

Tank Bigsby was inactive in Week 11 before the bye, and this is a health situation to monitor. He’s shown well for himself in his second season (15.1% production over expectation), and that’s enough for me to shift the majority of RB carries in Jacksonville his way should he suit up.

That role is nice to have, but in this low-octane offense, the ceiling is only so high for a one-dimensional option (19 carries for every target this year). Fantasy championships aren’t usually won by banking on a committee back in an offense that ranks in the 25th percentile in most metrics — that’s what we have here, even if Bigsby is technically the starter.

Tony Pollard, RB | TEN (at WAS)

“Running hard” comes with a gray area, but Tony Pollard certainly checked that box last week with Tyjae Spears (concussion), producing his best game relative to expectations since Week 6.

Tennessee leaned on its lead back in a significant way out of the gates, and with early success, that allowed them to commit. Pollard touched the ball seven times on their first 19 plays, picking up 55 scrimmage yards and a score in the process. I hate to make things simple, but how do you see this game playing out?

Three wins this season: 19.7 PPG and 27.3 touches per game
Eight losses this season: 12.0 PPG and 16.9 touches per game

Personally, I like Washington to bounce back off of a chaotic Week 12 loss, and that means I’m lower on Pollard. I have him ranked as my RB25 right now with the assumption that Spears returns — if that’s not the case, he’ll inch into the back end of my RB2 rankings, but not much higher.

Travis Etienne, RB | JAX (vs. HOU)

Travis Etienne Jr.’s name is on the list of most disappointing early-round picks this season, and I’m not sure there’s a path to him salvaging much given the state of this offense if Tank Bigsby can shake off his ankle injury.

Etienne’s production rates by season:

• 2023: 8.5% production over expectations
• 2024: 21.1% production under expectations

His metrics have declined across the board, most glaringly a 19.9% dip in yards per carry after contact; while I favor him in the passing game over Bigsby, I’m not sure there’s enough meat on this bone to start him with confidence.

If you’re confident that the goal line is Etienne’s to lose, you could talk yourself into a score saving your bacon (HOU: third worst red-zone defense), but if Bigsby is good to go, you’re grasping for straws.

Trey Benson, RB | ARI (at MIN)

Trey Benson should be rostered in more leagues than he is given his proximity to volume, but as we’ve been saying for months now, holding him is a bet against James Conner’s health more than anything.

The rookie was on the field for just 16.1% of snaps last week, and he’s cleared one-quarter of the snaps just twice this season, both in one-sided contests. Holding Benson is the proper way to build a roster, even if he doesn’t currently factor into your weekly decision-making.

Tyjae Spears, RB | TEN (at WAS)

Tyjae Spears was ruled out last Friday with a concussion, though limited practice sessions throughout the week have me putting him on the right side of questionable heading into Week 13.

He might well be active for the Titans, but he’s done nothing to be deserving of consideration in even the deepest of fantasy leagues. Only once this season has the former third-round pick cleared seven carries, and while he has shown promise during his short career as a pass catcher, he has a total of 12 receiving yards over his past four games.

There’s no need to back up your Tony Pollard investment; Spears should be on waiver wires across the board.

Tyler Allgeier, RB | ATL (vs. LAC)

Ray Davis, Trey Benson, Braelon Allen. There are a handful of running backs that hold no value when the starter is healthy but are only an injury away from walking into the RB2 tier of my rankings, and Tyler Allgeier is clearly in that mold.

He’s averaging 5.0 yards per carry this season and has proven the ability to pick up yards consistently when given the opportunity (career: 34.7% of carries have gained at least five yards). The schedule lines up nicely when it matters most (Weeks 15-17: Raiders, Giants, and Commanders), and that is enough to justify keeping Allgeier rostered, even if you out-gained him in Week 11.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB | NYG (at DAL)

Tyrone Tracy Jr. was scripted out of the 23-point loss to the Buccaneers last weekend and yet, the team still had a chance to do right by us loyal fantasy managers with a goal-line drive in the fourth quarter.

No luck. Devin Singletary was handed the valuable carry, just his second rush attempt in the game. Sometimes it’s easy to hate the game we play.

We didn’t get bailed out with the late touchdown last week, but New York going to Singletary in that spot was further confirmation that this is Tracy’s backfield and Tracy’s alone. During a strong rookie campaign (7.1% production over expectation), I’m comfortable calling his number again this week as he lines up against the worst red zone defense in the league (Dallas has allowed a touchdown on 28 of 37 red zone trips this season).

The Giants and Cowboys are similar in that, with their backup QBs under center, their star receivers have fallen down a tier and their bell-cow backs check in as low-end RB2s.

Zach Charbonnet, RB | SEA (at NYJ)

Zach Charbonnet’s playing time has increased in consecutive weeks with Kenneth Walker III struggling to make the splash plays we believed to be in his profile (last four games: 2.97 yards per carry), but we are still looking at nothing more than a handcuff back in a spotty offense that ranks third in pass rate over expectation this season.

The 37.7% snap share from Week 12 is something of a ceiling for Charbonnet, and even that wasn’t enough to get him above the six-touch role that he was capped at for the entire month of November. With Seattle playing meaningful games down the stretch, their backup RB deserves to be rostered (40 touches in the two games Walker missed earlier this season), but there should be no temptation to slot him in as a Flex option in any format.

Week 13 Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen, WR | CAR (vs. TB)

Adam Thielen missed over two months and returned last week — he was targeted on Carolina’s first play. He largely disappeared after that, but when the chips were in the middle of the table, he had a late fourth-down catch and drew a DPI in the end zone.

I think that’s what we can expect moving forward from the veteran receiver. We are looking at production that comes and goes, nothing that fantasy managers can count on. Jalen Coker projects to eat into an already limited role should he return to action, further pushing Thielen down my receiver rankings.

The Bucs allow the third-highest completion percentage to the slot this season, giving Coker or Thielen a path to low-end PPR value if you squint, but I’m largely targeting upside rather than hoping for a few valuable looks as a part of this bottom-five offense.

A.J. Brown, WR | PHI (at BAL)

A.J. Brown has a deep reception in all eight of his games this season and an end-zone look in six of those contests. In short, the Eagles have an alpha receiver and are using him as such.

The Ravens’ defense impressed on Monday night against the Chargers, but that feels like an apples-to-oranges situation. Instead of facing an offense that lacks a game-breaking receiver that lost its starting running back mid-game with the benefit of extra rest, they are now facing an offense with star playmakers, a running back pushing for MVP votes, and a rest advantage.

Brown is my top-ranked receiver for Week 13.

Alec Pierce, WR | IND (at NE)

Anthony Richardson overshot Alec Pierce on what should have been a chunk play and had a shot at becoming an 88-yard score. Such is life when opting to party with a profile like Pierce’s.

He finished the game with just a single grab (39 yards), and you know that level of risk is a part of the deal. He does have three straight games with a 30-yard reception, but is the juice worth the squeeze?

The Colts are one of six teams yet to have their bye, and Pierce is rare in that he has appeared in every one of his team’s games this season. With that knowledge, would you be surprised to know that 112 players have more receptions than him this season?

The Patriots were picked apart by Tua Tagovailoa a week ago, but even in his dominating effort, there were zero 30-yard gains. I’m never going to rank Pierce as a viable weekly option based on his volatile role, but if you’re swinging for the fences, there are few dart throws with a clearer path to a spike week.

Amari Cooper, WR | BUF (vs. SF)

A wrist injury has hampered Amari Cooper since being dealt to the Bills, and at this point, I need to see him produce in this offense before assuming it. Let the record show that I very much believe in his ability to do so and am not backing off of my hopes for him being a league winner at the right time.

Cooper has run 61 routes for Buffalo, and he’s turned them into just 10 targets and seven catches. We all remember Keon Coleman telling him where to run in his team debut and getting him into the end zone, but that’s been about it in terms of excitement.

If you have more guts than I do, plug Cooper in as your Flex and be on your way. I’m opting for a cautious approach, ranking him outside of my top 30, behind names like Xavier Worthy and Michael Pittman Jr.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | DET (vs. CHI)

The touchdown streak came to an end for Amon-Ra St. Brown last weekend in Indy (a franchise record eight straight games), and that resulted in an underwhelming performance from Detroit’s star receiver in a similar way to how his teammates have underachieved at various points this season.

Volume.

St. Brown is having a great season — if you had to guess, how many times has he reached 65 receiving yards in a game?

The answer is four, and two of them came back in September. This offense is so efficient and so productive on the ground that, should the touchdowns dry up for any one specific player, they are capable of plummeting down the weekly production leaderboard.

St. Brown is safer than any other pass catcher on this roster, and it’s not close, but he’s not immune to such performances. I like his chances of earning a turkey leg in Thanksgiving’s first game this week against a Bears defense that allowed 9.8 yards per pass attempt to the Vikings.

Brandin Cooks, WR | DAL (vs. NYG)

Brandin Cooks (knee) hasn’t played since September, and while news out of Dallas seems to be cautiously optimistic on the status of the veteran receiver, fantasy managers need not worry.

In 2023, Cooks posted the worst yards per route run rate of his career, and nothing in the early going this season — in a Dak Prescott-led offense — suggested that a rebound was imminent. With the Cowboys’ season a lost one and Cooks’ contract done at the end of the season, neither party has enough motivation to pique the interest of fantasy managers in the slightest.

Brian Thomas Jr., WR | JAX (vs. HOU)

Splash plays and volume were the calling cards of Brian Thomas Jr. to open this season, but September’s success won’t pay the bills during the winter months.

• Thomas had three straight games with at least eight targets early on — he hasn’t had a single game like that since
• Thomas had two 55+ yard receptions during a three-week stretch — he doesn’t have a 30-yard grab in over a month

Accepted logic for rookie receivers is that they take time to assimilate to the speed of the professional game and offer more production as their first season wears on. That sounds great as a blanket statement, but when we are talking about an entirely different situation now than two months ago in terms of the surrounding pieces, struggles like this aren’t all that surprising.

I’m holding my dynasty shares of Thomas without question, but we are trying to win Week 13 in this article, and I don’t think there’s a path to doing that. We know the quarterback play is a problem, and facing the defense that ranks third in non-blitz sack rate isn’t exactly the recipe for fixing that.

I’d rather take the assumed quantity of looks, even if the quality is in question, of a player like Jakobi Meyers this week and until proven unwise to do so.

Calvin Ridley, WR | TEN (at WAS)

So let me get this straight: The Titans moved on from DeAndre Hopkins, dealt with a Will Levis injury, and now they’ve unlocked the ability to consistently sustain two fantasy receivers?

Sure, why not?

This team has produced a top-20 receiver in five straight weeks, and the sum of Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine’s finishes over that stretch hasn’t once risen above 58. Ridley remains the far more projectable of the two, and that is what has earned him a high-end Flex grade for me this week against a Washington defense that blitzes at a top-seven rate but succeeds in getting pressure on those plays at a bottom-seven rate.

For me, that means single-coverage situations, and we know Levis, for better or worse, is willing to give his talented tandem a chance to win those 50/50 balls. The Westbrook-Ikhine scoring barrage feels like a house of cards to me, but this Ridley run has some staying power, and this isn’t the week I’d advise jumping off.

Cedric Tillman, WR | CLE (at DEN)

Cedric Tillman saw four targets before being ruled out for the game with a concussion. In the small sample of Week 12, his on-field target share was his best of the season, a positive sign for those holding this stock, but I’m operating as if we will not have his services this weekend.

I found it somewhat interesting that Tillman was being used underneath to open last week (7.3 aDOT, his first game with an aDOT under 10.9 yards this season). That could increase his weekly stability via efficiency (2024: 59.2% catch rate), a net positive given the volume in which this team is throwing the ball with Jameis Winston under center.

I prefer Jerry Jeudy to Tillman, but there’s more than enough food at the table for both to eat when fully healthy.

CeeDee Lamb, WR | DAL (vs. NYG)

There might not be a more predictable offense in the NFL than what Dallas is running these days. Heck, forget the NFL. Outside of the service academies, is this the most predictable offensive football structure in the world? I assume there are some pretty vanilla playbooks out there for the U-12 age range, but with kids that age, anything can happen, and that adds a level of uncertainty.

The Cowboys force-feed CeeDee Lamb to set up force-feeding CeeDee Lamb, but this time with more urgency due to the down and distance. Lamb was targeted on five of Cooper Rush’s first nine passes last weekend, picking up 35 yards in the process. He’s been handed the ball in four straight games and reached double figures in the target department in each of his past six, putting his usage on track with anyone in recent memory.

The impact of those opportunities is the creation of a nice fantasy floor, but the lack of quality in those looks has not allowed for much ceiling potential. Lamb has been held without a touchdown thus far in November and, in three of those four games, he didn’t record a 15-yard catch.

You’re playing Lamb as a safe WR2, and that’s fine, it’s just not what you paid for.

Christian Watson, WR | GB (vs. MIA)

I have a hard time thinking there is a player in the league who averages more words of analysis in this article per reception over the past two seasons than Christian Watson. The raw athletic ability is clear every time he steps onto the field and that profile is intoxicating in an offense we want to trust, but we’ve been burned far too frequently by his lack of focus.

"You can not throw a ball better than that."- @TomBrady pic.twitter.com/rCIZA2nA4a

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 24, 2024

I feel like we’ve seen this before. I just can’t shake the feeling …

YIKES pic.twitter.com/7y58rfgent

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) September 11, 2022

It should be noted that the ability to get this sort of separation is a major plus. But until I convince my leagues to shift to a point-per-yard-of-separation bonus, the ability to catch is going to be more critical than anything when it is literally the job description.

All of that said, I could see going back to the well if you feel like you’re chasing. The Dolphins are the only defense in the NFL yet to intercept a deep pass and we know Jordan Love is more than happy to cut it loose.

You know what you’re getting with Watson – if you’re willing to swallow the floor, there is a matchup-swinging upside to at least consider as you sink into the couch after a long day of Thanksgiving-ing.

Cooper Kupp, WR | LAR (at NO)

Cooper Kupp is back to earning targets at an elite level with 42 over his past four games, which has unsurprisingly fielded immense success (top-20 finish in each of those contests).

Given the form of Puka Nacua and the presence of a ground game that soaks up plenty of usage inside of the five-yard line, asking Kupp to produce top-10 numbers regularly is a bit too optimistic, but there’s no reason you should hesitate clicking his name into annual leagues; if Nacua’s success drags down his ownership in DFS circles, I can assure you that I will have my shares for Sunday’s main slate.

Courtland Sutton, WR | DEN (vs. CLE)

This Bo Nix experience has been fun for fantasy managers, and it’s been an even more enjoyable run for Courtland Sutton, the proud owner of three top-six finishes at the position over the past month.

Everything has been encouraging in terms of his profile lately, and that includes a season-high in slot usage a week ago (33.9% of his routes), a development that could give him a strong floor to complement a ceiling that we’ve had access to lately.

But could it all come crashing down this week?

The Browns are not the intimidating matchup that we expected them to be three months ago, but even in a disappointing season, they sit atop the league in pressure rate (43% of opponent dropbacks). Nix has been great, but like most rookies, when you apply pressure, the game tends to move faster than can be processed confidently.

Broncos’ passing success in Weeks 6-12, 2024:

• Nix when not pressured: Fourth in passer rating (better than Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert)
• Nix when pressured: 23rd in passer rating (worse than Cooper Rush)

I bet the Broncos’ team total to go under 24.5 points when the lines first dropped this week with that thought in mind, and that has me lower on all members of this offense than consensus. That doesn’t mean I’m benching this alpha receiver, but it does mean I have him as a low-end WR2 while I’ve seen others putting him in the WR1 conversation.

Darius Slayton, WR | NYG (at DAL)

Darius Slayton was shut out in Tommy DeVito’s debut, and that has his thin profile fading fast. He wasn’t to be viewed as anything other than Malik Nabers insurance in the first place and now I’m not sure I’d rank him as a top-40 option should New York’s WR1 suffer some sort of injury over the final 1.5 months.

This season, Slayton’s 15% on-field target share is the second lowest of his career and with an aDOT that is below his career norm, neither the quality nor the quantity of targets is worth investing in.

Darnell Mooney, WR | ATL (vs. LAC)

Darnell Mooney suffered a hamstring injury in Week 11 against the Broncos before this team went on bye, but nothing coming out of Atlanta has made this injury sound like something we need to worry about.

Before the injury, Mooney had cleared 85 receiving yards in three straight games, and that’s great, but he’s operating at close to max capacity if he can’t improve his efficiency.

Outside of an outlier Week 3 loss to the Chiefs where he caught all eight of his targets, Mooney owns a 54.8% catch rate on the season, something that has the potential to sink any given week where the possession count is limited, something that could be the case when facing a Chargers team that plays at the third slowest pace offensively in the NFL.

For the first time in a while, Mooney is sitting just outside of my top 35 receivers this week and isn’t a player I’m actively trying to start if I have other similar options.

Davante Adams, WR | NYJ (vs. SEA)

Davante Adams has as many top-30 finishes with the Raiders as the Jets this season (one). It’s safe to say that things haven’t worked out exactly how Adams (or the Jets) had in mind, but it’s not for a lack of effort.

Adams has hauled in at least six passes in three straight games. He got there in the least exciting way possible against the Colts in Week 11 (3.0 aDOT), but I’m OK with that. After three months, it’s pretty clear that this offense isn’t the high-flying unit that we had hoped it would be, so I’ll happily accept the focus being on getting the ball in his hands and take my chances.

I currently have Adams ranked as my WR21 for Week 13.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR | KC (vs. LV)

There will surely be more impressive touchdowns that come from this Patrick Mahomes/DeAndre Hopkins connection than the three-yarder we saw last weekend, but plays like that, with Mahomes running around and diagnosing things on the fly, are why I think Hopkins can be a difference-maker as this team chases a three-peat.

Of course, Hopkins being a vessel to history and him being an asset for us down the stretch aren’t necessarily the same thing. The future Hall of Famer has cleared 35 receiving yards in just one of five games with the franchise, meaning there is still a floor to fear.

The Raiders own the third-lowest pressure rate in the NFL, and if you’re telling me that Mahomes is going to have time to pick apart this defense, I’ll take my chances with Hopkins in my starting lineup.

Deebo Samuel Sr., WR | SF (at BUF)

Is there a more difficult player to rank with confidence annually than Deebo Samuel Sr.?

• 2021: 37.6% production over expectations
• 2022: 13.7% production under expectations
• 2023: 35.2% production over expectations
• 2024: 10.2% production under expectations

Samuel’s rushing equity has all but dried up since Christian McCaffrey made his season debut three weeks ago, and we have a downward-trending ability to earn targets that we need to consider. His on-field target share stood at 25.5% in 2021, a rate that fell to 25.1% in 2022, again to 23.4% in 2023, and currently sits at 20.5%.

He remains nearly impossible to tackle in space, so the fact that the Bills allow the 10th most red-zone trips per game opens up some scoring potential, but I worry more about the floor than I idealize the ceiling.

I prefer Jauan Jennings’ tighter range of outcomes in this offense and have Samuel labeled as a Flex play this weekend.

Demarcus Robinson, WR | LAR (at NO)

Demarcus Robinson found paydirt again on Sunday, giving him more scores than Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and A.J. Brown through 12 weeks this season. The end-of-the-day fantasy point totals have been viable at times this season, but given that he has failed to clear seven expected PPR points in six of his past nine games, there’s really not enough in this profile to have me interested.

Instead of focusing on the touchdown, I’d encourage you to look at the fact that his opportunity count has declined in three straight games and that he has just one game with over 50 yards on the season.

In addition to a weak role, Robinson was arrested on a drunk driving charge Monday morning for driving “in excess” of 100 miles per hour. If history has taught us anything, a delayed suspension is the most likely outcome, so he will likely be active this weekend, but he’s not close to my radar against the third-best pass defense when it comes to touchdown rate.

DeMario Douglas, WR | NE (vs. IND)

DeMario Douglas has just one top-25 finish on his 2024 resume and Week 12 was a good reminder of just how sideways an offense led by a volatile rookie can go. New England had 49 passing yards in the first half of the loss to the Dolphins and not a single Patriot had multiple receptions over the first 30 minutes.

At the end of the day, Douglas was able to get you to double-digit PPR points last week (five catches for 62 yards) and that’s all you’re asking for from him. The Colts allow the highest slot completion percentage through 12 weeks (79%) and that gives me confidence that we get exactly what we expect from Douglas.

The ceiling is only so high, but there is comfort in stability, and over the course of 60 minutes, I think that’s enough to Flex Douglas if you’re labeled as a favorite.

DeVonta Smith, WR| PHI (at BAL)

A hamstring injury resulted in DeVonta Smith’s second DNP of the season (first three seasons: one DNP). It’s been an up-and-down season for Philadelphia’s WR2, posting three games with over 75 receiving yards and a touchdown, but also three games with under 30 receiving yards.

I’m not a doctor and it seems that no one in the NFL can solve these hamstring injuries, but has anyone tried skipping the Icey Hot and simply applying a touch of this Baltimore Ravens secondary on short rest?

Smith has scored at least 14.9 PPR points in six of his seven highest aDOT games this season and it stands to reason that, if healthy, he’ll be used as a field stretcher. This is certainly a situation to monitor as the week progresses as Smith is the type of receiver that is at risk of being limited in a significant way by a hamstring injury. Should he be cleared without concern, he’ll move into my WR2 tier for Week 13.

Diontae Johnson, WR | BAL (vs. PHI)

The NFL told us what they thought of Diontae Johnson with his asking price at the trade deadline, and we’ve seen that price be justified.

Johnson has been with the Ravens for a month now, and the only thing lower than his route count across those four games (19) is his yardage total (six). It’s clear that Rashod Bateman remains the WR2 in this offense, and with two viable tight ends, not to mention a robust run game, there’s just not a path for Johnson to be on the field regularly, let alone produce numbers that matter for us.

DJ Moore, WR | CHI (at DET)

It took over two months, but the Bears are finally using DJ Moore in an optimal way, and that has him in my Flex tier for this week.

Moore’s aDOT trends, 2024:

Weeks 1-9: 9.8 yards (12.3% production under expectation)
Weeks 10-12: 2.7 yards (31.3% production over expectation)

Last weekend, Moore scored on a screen pass on a play that looked easy. Not every short pass is going to have the blocking line up quite like that, but he has hauled in all 14 of his targets over the past two weeks, and that stabilizes his floor in a way that not many players experience when playing alongside a rookie.

That’s nice for Moore’s outlook for the remainder of the season … starting next week. The Lions are the fourth-best defense on a rate basis at preventing scores to the slot and the very best when looking at all short passes thrown.

The Bears are going to continue to look to get Caleb Williams as many reps as possible, and with Moore tabbed as my highest-ranked receiver in this offense, there are going to be usable weeks ahead.

DK Metcalf, WR | SEA (at NYJ)

DK Metcalf’s role in his two games back has looked just like the one he left, and that’s a good thing. A player with this athletic profile carries extreme upside into any matchup.

That said, I do worry about his potential to access that with Jaxon Smith-Njigba amid his breakout. Metcalf was a WR1 in both Week 2 and Week 3, but he has just one top-25 performance since. I have him ranked safely in the middle of those outcomes, checking in as a middling WR2 this week and moving forward.

The Jets have allowed the fourth-lowest red-zone completion percentage this season (43.2%), further dimming the star of Metcalf for Week 13. You’re still playing him in all formats, but he now resides in the Courtland Sutton tier as opposed to the Puka Nacua one.

Dontayvion Wicks, WR | GB (vs. MIA)

We are three months into the year, and that’s a long time to hold onto early-season production. Entering Week 13, 75% of Dontayvion Wicks’ scores and 47.9% of his yards came in September. The talented 23-year-old is capable of making plays, but he’s yet to be prioritized by this team.

Packers WR snap shares, Week 12:

• Christian Watson: 62.7%
• Romeo Doubs (concussion): 49.3%
• Jayden Reed: 49.3%
• Wicks: 40.3%
• Bo Melton: 34.3%
• Malik Heath: 22.4%

With Doubs unlikely to play, the 6’1” Wicks is very much on my DFS radar for the Thanksgiving slate. We’ve seen Jordan Love distribute his targets to a variety of players, and while that introduces upside, it also eliminates any reasonable floor. Wicks is a stash in redraft leagues at this point, though you should be encouraged by fewer obstacles in his way for the short term.

Drake London, WR | ATL (vs. LAC)

Drake London has seen six end-zone targets over his past six contests and has established himself as a featured option in scoring situations. Last season, Atlanta’s WR1 was targeted on 28.1% of his red-zone routes. That’s a respectable rate, but it’s nearly doubled under Kirk Cousins (45.7%), and that brings in an elite ceiling case.

The Falcons have made it clear that they want to scheme up their top pass catcher, so look for him to be heavily involved this week with Atlanta coming off their bye and the Chargers on a short week.

The Chargers are the best YAC defense in the league, but they rank 25th in passer rating allowed against deep passes — London could be used as a vertical threat, and while that introduces a wider range of outcomes, I’m willing to bet on his talent/target combination which lands him inside of my top 20.

Elijah Moore, WR | CLE (at DEN)

Elijah Moore disappointed on Thursday night (5.1 PPR points) and was hardly used in the slot, something that was previously his calling card.

• Week 6 at Philadelphia Eagles: 71.4% slot rate
• Week 7 vs. Cincinnati Bengals: 69.4%
• Week 8 vs. Baltimore Ravens: 66%
• Week 9 vs. Los Angeles Chargers: 67.8%
• Week 11 at New Orleans Saints: 67.3%
• Week 12 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: 30.8%

Was this the result of the wintery weather? Was it a reaction to the Cedric Tillman concussion? I tend to think this usage will be an outlier as opposed to the beginning of a pattern, and that keeps me optimistic. I don’t love the idea if it means he’s competing for perimeter looks with Jerry Jeudy/Tillman, but if the slot role returns, he can be a viable PPR option on a weekly basis.

In terms of completion percentage against, Denver is more vulnerable in the slot and that is why I think PPR managers can get away with Flexing Moore this week, even if the upside isn’t all that impressive.

Garrett Wilson, WR | NYJ (vs. SEA)

This Jets offense has gone conservative, putting Garrett Wilson in a tough spot given that his aDOT has been higher than Davante Adams’ in four of their six games played together.

New York has shown little desire to stretch the field, and I can’t imagine that changes against a Seahawks defense that is rarely challenged downfield (fifth-fewest deep pass attempts against) and even more rarely is vulnerable in such spots (fifth-highest interception rate on those throws).

Wilson has turned 14 targets into just 59 yards over New York’s past two games, and with rumors swirling about Aaron Rodgers’ season potentially coming to an end earlier than expected, there’s more risk in this profile despite the raw talent that is obvious.

I’m ranking him as a middling Flex option, alongside other big-name receivers with floor concerns (Marvin Harrison JR. and Amari Cooper, to name a pair). It’s Xavier Worthy week for me, and I have the rookie burner two spots ahead of Wilson at this moment in time.

George Pickens, WR | PIT (at CIN)

After clearing 16 PPR points in three of four games, George Pickens fell flat in the elements against the Browns on Thursday night, turning seven targets into just 8.8 points.

I’m not worried.

The Steelers continued to take shots to him (Week 12: 20.6 aDOT) and that is where he is going to produce when not playing in a borderline blizzard. We saw him haul in one of those deep passes (31-yard juggling reception) and if there isn’t some sort of miscommunication and/or an off-target throw in the end zone, fantasy managers would have left last week feeling very different.

How many times do you think a receiver has cleared 17 PPR points against the Bengals this season?

That number sits at 11 through 11 games. That number is enough to play Pickens with confidence without context, but let’s highlight some of the names on that list.

• Diontae Johnson (Week 4): 21.3 PPR points
• Tylan Wallace (Week 10): 20.5
• Xavier Legette (Week 4): 19.6
• Cedric Tillman (Week 7): 18.1
• Rashod Bateman (Week 10): 17.4

It hasn’t just been the upper tier of receivers that have taken full advantage of this vulnerable secondary – anyone on the field has a chance. Russell Wilson has made it clear that he trusts Pickens in a major way and that gives him the potential to return WR1 value this weekend.

Jakobi Meyers, WR | LV (at KC)

CeeDee Lamb (11.2), Malik Nabers (11.1), Garrett Wilson (10.1), and Ja’Marr Chase (9.9) — that’s your entire list of players averaging more targets per game since Week 3 than Jakobi Meyers (9.6).

In a tough matchup against the Broncos last weekend, he racked up 15 targets on his way to a 10-catch, 121-yard effort (more than double the yardage total projected by sportsbooks). The sledding doesn’t get any easier this week, and a rotating quarterback situation certainly doesn’t help, but Meyers did haul in six of seven looks for 52 yards and a score in the first meeting with the Chiefs this season.

I’d be surprised if he repeated that success, though the volume keeps him as a viable Flex option. Of the top nine WR performances against Kansas City this season, only five have come from the top option in those respective offenses.

Vegas is projected to score 15 points on Black Friday — I’m looking for excuses to play other options if I can (Xavier Worthy and Cedric Tillman are two names that I have ranked ahead of him this week whom I normally don’t).

Jalen Coker, WR | CAR (vs. TB)

Jalen Coker was a late addition to the injury report last week and ended up sitting out with a quad injury. He left the lineup the same week that Adam Thielen (hamstring) returned, thus muddying the situation for this rookie to produce if/when he is deemed healthy.

I think we’ve seen enough from the Holy Cross product to pencil him in as a part of the rebuild in Carolina, but there’s no need to hold onto him in redraft formats for the stretch run.

Jalen McMillan, WR | TB (at CAR)

Jalen McMillan led the Buccaneers’ receivers in routes run last week with 22, but he managed to earn just two looks (one catch for 11 yards). The rookie’s role was limited with both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans succeeding early in the season, but even with various injuries, he’s yet to progress in a meaningful way.

Tampa Bay has committed to McMillan and Sterling Shepard alongside Evans in their primary three-receiver sets, but we don’t get points for snaps played, and up to this point, it’s clear that he’s not quite ready to win at the professional level (yet to clear 35 receiving yards in a game).

The post-hype sleeper potential will be there for next season, but as far as 2024 is concerned, you can look elsewhere for upside.

Jalen Tolbert, WR | DAL (vs. NYG)

Presentation, presentation, presentation.

In the world of analysis (also known as “professional number bending”), the presentation of information is just as important as location is in the real estate business. If I wanted to sell you on Jalen Tolbert, I’d make sure to avoid noting that he ranked fifth on this team in receiving yards last week, a game played without their starting tight end.

I certainly wouldn’t mention that Rico Dowdle had more receptions, and I’d probably exclude the fact that he was held without a catch in three of four quarters during their upset win over the Commanders.

Instead, I’d focus on him leading Dallas receivers in snap share (98%) or being the target of Cooper Rush’s lone pass thrown to the end zone.

See what I did there? I presented the anti-argument first, and human nature weighs that information as the most important. It’s all about presentation, and while the field time is nice to see, I’m more than comfortable fading any secondary receiver in this awfully limited offense for the remainder of the season.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR | CIN (vs. PIT)

The last time we had the pleasure of watching Ja’Marr Chase ball, he was busy scoring twice against the Chargers, his fourth multi-TD reception game of this season. In the history of this beautiful game, only three times has a player under the age of 25 had more such games in a single season:

• Gary Collins (1963)
• John Jefferson (1978)
• Rob Gronkowski (2011)

For the season, Chase has produced 38.1% over expectations and has seen the end zone in five straight games. In previous seasons, I’d worry about a floor performance against an elite Steelers defense that is rarely beaten down the field (third lowest opponent passer rating on bombs through 12 weeks), but Chase’s aDOT is 18.3% lower than Tee Higgins’ this season.

The Bengals offense operates with essentially no room for error due to the limitations of their defense, and that has elevated Chase from Tier 1 to WR1 in my weekly rankings.

Jameson Williams, WR | DET (vs. CHI)

Nobody is claiming that Jameson Williams is a perfect receiver, but the fact that he led the Lions in targets (seven) and receiving yards (64) in the easy win over the Colts last week was encouraging as he prepares for an advantageous matchup against a divisional opponent.

Chicago has given up at least 19 PPR points to a receiver four times this season. The names on that list:

• Jordan Addison (30.2 points in Week 12)
• Nico Collins (27.5 points in Week 2)
• Gabe Davis (21.5 points in Week 6)
• Christian Watson (19 points in Week 11)

All of those receivers have the game-breaker DNA. While the big plays have been spotty for Williams since the beginning of October, that doesn’t mean that potential has been removed from his profile, especially when playing on Detroit’s fast track.

Williams has earned at least five targets in three straight games. If he can extend that streak, I like his chances of returning Flex production across the board.

Jauan Jennings, WR| SF (at BUF)

The Brandon Allen version of this offense was all sorts of underwhelming against the Packers last weekend, but that didn’t stop Jauan Jennings from impacting the game by leading the team in targets (seven).

That’s a nice note to present, but it’s kind of like saying you got the best candy when trick-or-treating at the dentist’s office. Is it really that impactful?

The Bills allow the fourth-highest completion rate to the slot (75%) and that has me confident that Jennings can continue to be efficient regardless of who is under center. I have Jennings hovering in the middle of my Flex ranks at the moment — should we get confirmation that Brock Purdy will return, he’ll carry a WR2 status into Thanksgiving, ranking just ahead of the slot man on the other side of the field last week in Jayden Reed.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | SEA (at NYJ)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is one of five receivers to score 19 PPR points in three straight games this season (others: A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Malik Nabers). That’s some pretty good company to keep, and with an expanding route tree (the big play last week came on a beautiful bubble screen), I see no reason to think that the upward trajectory slows.

When it comes to this specific matchup, there’s a strong case to be made for JSN to be considered the top pass catcher in this offense. The Jets rank second in the league in pressure rate through 12 weeks, and …

When Geno Smith is pressured, 2024:

• Smith-Njigba: 1.8 points per target
• DK Metcalf: 1.2 points per target

When Smith is not pressured, 2024:

• Smith-Njigba: 1.8 points per target
• Metcalf: 2.1 points per target

I have both ranked as WR2s that you can feel great about starting this week and for the remainder of 2024 (and beyond).

Jayden Reed, WR | GB (vs. MIA)

Over the past two weeks, Jayden Reed has four catches for 41 yards and a touchdown on the first drive of the game. That’s great. Less great is the fact that he has totaled three scrimmage yards after that. Green Bay clearly enters the game with the intent to get their WR1 involved, and it works, but it fades with time for whatever reason.

I remain bullish on the idea of Reed as “the guy” in this offense with a Deebo Samuel Sr.-like role (he has a rush attempt in nine of 11 games), but there is no denying that there is sizeable risk involved.

I’ve gradually moved Reed down in my rankings, and he is now hovering in that Flex tier, especially against a Dolphins defense that has allowed a receiver to clear 15 PPR points just three times. I’m still intrigued enough to play him in most PPR settings, but he’s no longer the lineup lock I once had him labeled as.

Jaylen Waddle, WR | MIA (at GB)

It’s possible we saw Jaylen Waddle unlocked last weekend against the Patriots. Not only did he give you 6.5 more points in a single game than he had in his previous three games, but our expected points metric backed up the spike performance (16.5 expected points; Weeks 1-11: 8.0 expected points per game).

Even more encouraging was the fact that the production didn’t come by accident — Waddle was responsible for 89 of Tua Tagovailoa’s first 159 passing yards in the victory, totaling 118 yards in the first half alone. His touchdown was scored on a play-action read where Tagovailoa zipped the ball into a tight window — it almost felt like 2023!

Of his 8-144-1 stat line, seven catches and 130 yards came when Miami wasn’t blitzed, something that figures to regularly be the case on Thursday night given that the Packers bring the heat at the sixth lowest rate.

I’m not willing to overlook the ugly first three months of this season for a single good game, but I do have Waddle tucked into the back end of my WR2 rankings this week, landing him in the same range as other turkey day pass catchers like Jayden Reed and Jameson Williams.

Jerry Jeudy, WR | CLE (at DEN)

Jerry Jeudy has established himself as the most consistent Cleveland receiver as he has cleared 70 receiving yards in all four Jameis Winston starts, averaging 116 air yards per game in the process.

Does this mean he draws Patrick Surtain this week? Likely, but if there’s a corner in this league who scares Winston from throwing where he is most comfortable, I’ve yet to find him. The matchup comes with an underwhelming implied point total for the Browns, but the usage is strong enough to Flex Jeudy, whose on-field target share has increased in each game during the Winston era.

Jonathan Mingo, WR | DAL (vs. NYG)

If you thought that the Cowboys paid a premium for an unproven receiver with the intent to load him up with opportunities down the stretch to see if they got a bargain, I don’t blame you.

But you’re wrong.

Jonathan Mingo has eight yards on 27 routes as a Cowboy and it would appear that trading for him isn’t going to bear any fruit in 2024. Some of us are pessimistic about that changing at any point, but this article is for Week 13 of 2024 and in that regard, you’re better off taking a chance on just about any other warm body.

Jordan Addison, WR | MIN (vs. ARI)

Jordan Addison scored in three of four November games, posting top-25 finishes at the position in all three of those instances. On Sunday, he made a falling 45-yard grab (a drive he’d eventually finish with a touchdown) and then showcased elite balance on a 69-yard gain in which he bounced off tacklers.

I’d argue that Week 12’s performance was very much a ceiling outcome and not something that you can count on. That said, I don’t think this is the last time that defenses allocate most of their resources toward Justin Jefferson, and that opens up Addison for usable weeks.

In this matchup specifically, I think we see completely different usage, thus resulting in a narrower range of outcomes. This season, Addison’s aDOT dips by 21.3% when Sam Darnold is not pressured, and with this being the fourth-worst defense in terms of creating pressure, I’m projecting a more conservative route.

That thought process talks me out of him repeating his 8-162-1 stat line from last week, but if we are looking at six to nine looks that are more efficient, starting him as a low-end PPR Flex is a justifiable move.

Josh Downs, WR | IND (at NE)

Josh Downs has reached 12 PPR points in each of his past four healthy games, but a shoulder injury resulted in an early exit last weekend, and he is poised to miss the third game of the year.

Even with all of the moving pieces in Indianapolis this season, the second-year receiver has produced 1% over expectation, no minor accomplishment with our “expected points” metric assuming league-average QB play, something that the Colts certainly have not had.

When he returns to the mix, assuming full health, Downs will be my highest-ranked receiver on this team. In the meantime, his very questionable status results in a nice spike in value for Michael Pittman Jr.

Josh Reynolds, WR, DEN (vs. CLE)

Josh Reynolds (finger) was activated from injured reserve two weeks ago and has been practicing, but he was ultimately inactive for Week 12. The surprise Broncos are a better team now than the one Reynolds left injured in Week 5, but Denver has yet to unlock the secondary pass-catcher role next to Courtland Sutton.

Broncos receiving yardage leaders, 2024:

1. Courtland Sutton: 744 receiving yards (T-9th in the NFL)
2. Devaughn Vele: 361 (89th)
3. Lil’Jordan Humphrey: 267 (123rd)
4. Javonte Williams: 256 (129th)
5. Josh Reynolds: 183 (166th)

Could Reynolds be the answer to that question? Do the Broncos need to answer this question?

This is a wait-and-see situation in my eyes. I like Reynolds to fill that role, but with Denver yet to go on bye, you’d be adding Reynolds now to potentially cut him ahead of Week 14 without ever having played him.

I’ll be tracking all the needed rates, so check back weekly for an update — but at the moment, I’m leaving Reynolds on waiver wires.

Joshua Palmer, WR | LAC (at ATL)

Joshua Palmer earned a season-high eight targets on Sunday night against the Ravens, but you’d never know it by looking at your fantasy box score (6.8 PPR points; 2024 average: 6.9). Despite pacing the NFL in air yards by 46 last week, it wasn’t enough to unlock him, even in a strong matchup against a vulnerable secondary.

The Falcons are a top-eight defense against the deep pass in terms of pass attempts allowed and yards per completion, leaving me out of the Palmer business this week. Could he offer spike potential against the Buccaneers (Week 15) or Patriots (Week 17)? It’s within the range of outcomes, and that sort of upside is enough for me to roster him, even if there’s not a situation in which I’m starting him this weekend.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR | KC (vs. LV)

I have no issue holding onto JuJu Smith-Schuster, but you can justify going in this direction. The Chiefs’ passing game has been underwhelming for the majority of this season, and considering that he is still working his way back from missing nearly a month, the odds of a floor week are far greater than any sort of ceiling performance.

• Week 11: 32.7% snap share
• Week 12: 54.4% snap share

The slot role is Smith-Schuster’s to take, and maybe that makes him valuable during the fantasy postseason; in the scope of Week 13 (three targets on 36 routes since coming back), you need not worry.

Justin Jefferson, WR | MIN (vs. ARI)

Justin Jefferson didn’t have a catch through the first 18 minutes on Sunday, but this is a good reminder that these are human beings, not just names on a sheet of paper. On one hand, we have Malik Nabers’ frustration bubbling over in a losing spot; on the other, we have Minnesota’s star:

Justin Jefferson is a team player 😅 pic.twitter.com/E9wDObwobD

— ESPN Fantasy Sports (@ESPNFantasy) November 25, 2024

I’m not sweating the down weeks (two catches for 27 yards), but Week 15’s rematch with the Bears could be a problem. We will get there when we get there (even with the script working as it did last week, he drew a 35-yard penalty that could be a play that adds 10+ points to his bottom line if not committed), but you’re not getting cute here.

For what it’s worth, I do have Jefferson ranked as one of the worst per-dollar DFS options this week among those with high-end price tags. I don’t have volume concerns, but Sam Darnold is trending in the wrong direction despite the team’s success, and that has resulted in Jefferson producing 29.8% below expectations over the past three weeks.

Keenan Allen, WR | CHI (at DET)

Woah. There were plenty of surprises last week, but a 15-target outing from Keenan Allen was up there with anything we saw in Week 12.

I don’t think the overall volume of the passing game in Chicago is going to look like that very often (even as a double-digit underdog on Thanksgiving), but last week featured Allen seeing six of Caleb Williams’ first 12 targets (five catches for 70 yards), and that makes me think that this a diagnosed matchup more than anything.

The 23.6-point outing was Allen’s best of the season — it was also just his second top-30 performance of the season. I would love to tell you that this is a sign of things to come, but I’m not going to lie to you. DJ Moore has caught all 14 of his targets over the past two weeks, and while Rome Odunze has yet to break out, his ability to earn targets is trending in a positive direction.

Detroit is the top-ranked defense in terms of opponent passer rating, fueling my ranking of Allen as more of a WR4 than anything. I understand that seeing the points pile up on your bench last week was irritating, but I’d caution against turning one mistake into two by locking him into your starting lineup on Thanksgiving.

Kendrick Bourne, WR | NE (vs. IND)

Kendrick Bourne managed just 30 yards on 25 routes last weekend in Miami, and with just one game of 50 air yards this year, we are looking at a player who needs to score to pay off.

If you’re in a spot where you’re considering Flexing a TD-dependant player on a team with an implied total hovering around 20 points in an offense led by a rookie signal caller — well, if that’s the case, I’d recommend stumbling upon this content earlier next season

I’m not making it a priority to start any Patriot this week, and with him ranked as my third favorite receiver on this team, he’s not in the zip code of mattering.

Keon Coleman, WR | BUF (vs. SF)

I worry that, at this point in the season, the idea of Keon Coleman is more valuable than the on-field product. The rookie has been battling a wrist injury for a month now, but even if he returns this week, what is the upside?

Coleman has earned more than five targets in just two games this season, and his role on the perimeter (just 5.2% of his routes have come in the slot) next to Amari Cooper isn’t how I expect Buffalo to attack San Francisco. Through 12 weeks, the 49ers surrendered just 6.1 yards per throw to the outside, the lowest rate in the NFL.

I’m not cutting ties with Coleman just for the sake of doing it, but as long as Cooper is healthy, I don’t think he’s a must-roster player.

Khalil Shakir, WR | BUF (vs. SF)

If you want to see what a rich man’s version of Wan’Dale Robinson looks like, it’s Khalil Shakir. With stability under center, his route-running prowess has been rewarded with an on-field target share north of 24% in five straight games (at least six receptions in each of those contests).

He’s never going to offer massive per-target upside, but as the game’s most efficient receiver, there’s weekly value to lean into. You’d probably be surprised to know that Shakir has reeled in a 20-yard reception in seven of his past nine games, giving him access to a ceiling that other chain movers simply don’t have.

The 49ers cough up 8.2 yards per slot pass attempt this year, ranking them below the league average and giving me a reason to be ranking Shakir as a WR2 in PPR formats.

Ladd McConkey, WR | LAC (at ATL)

Since 2010, three times has a rookie not drafted in the first round caught at least five passes in seven of his first 11 games – Michael Thomas, Puka Nacua, and Ladd McConkey. His ability to shake free while also making exceptional contested catches looks sticky.

The only thing missing from this profile is valuable looks, but I’m tempted to chalk that up to weird variance than anything given his skill set. We’ve gone four straight weeks without McConkey seeing a red zone target, something that is illogical for a player with a 73.7% catch rate on balls thrown five or fewer yards downfield.

The floor is enough to justify your confidence and a ceiling outcome is possible with Atlanta ranking 28th in opponent slot completion percentage (74.6%).

Malik Nabers, WR | NYG (at DAL)

Six times this season a receiver has cleared 17.5 PPR points against the Cowboys, Malik Nabers’ 23.1 points in Week 4 pacing that group. The vibes in New York haven’t been great all season long, but they did enter that game coming off a bye and with some level of confidence.

It’s hard to see that these days.

"I started getting the ball when it's 30-0. What do you want me to do?"

Malik Nabers follows up when asked why he didn't have a catch until the second half: "Talk to Dabs about that" pic.twitter.com/HNHOPGXysT

— Giants Videos (@SNYGiants) November 24, 2024

Nabers didn’t see a target in the first half last week, though it is worth noting that the Giants managed to throw just five passes in the first 30 minutes. Tommy DeVito and company corrected that flaw in the second half (36% target share after intermission) and that helped get him to a 6-64-0 stat line, but this seems to be a tenuous situation.

I’m inclined to trust the late-game role and am using Nabers as something close to 70% of CeeDee Lamb in terms of a role in an offense with a backup QB calling the shots. The ceiling isn’t what it once was, though I think 8-10 targets is enough to get him home as a WR2, especially if we are talking about higher-percentage looks in an effort to get the ball out of DeVito’s hands in a hurry.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR | NO (vs. LAR)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has 101 regular season games on his NFL resume. This is just the second time he’s cleared 15 PPR fantasy points in consecutive games despite spending his career, before these three games with the Saints, playing with Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen. The only other instance came in Weeks 9-10 of the 2020 season — his next three game totals:

• 90 routes
• Eight targets
• Three catches
• 8.5 PPR fantasy points

The word “regression” doesn’t do this profile justice. The tricky part, of course, is settling on when the inevitable cliff comes. MVS has a 65-yard catch in consecutive games and the last player to do that in three straight was Tyreek Hill in 2018 with the Chiefs. I think it’s safe to say that Valdes-Scantling is not in that tier of receiver. But on the bright side, his role is trending in the right direction.

Valdes-Scantling’s snap shares with the Saints:

• Week 9 at Carolina Panthers: 43.2%
• Week 10 vs. Atlanta Falcons: 53.8%
• Week 11 vs. Cleveland Browns: 65.5%

That said, this Rams defense excels at creating pressure, and it doesn’t take a data scientist to tell you that such a matchup makes those deep routes difficult to connect on. He gets the benefit of playing on turf, which can amplify his straight-line speed, but without the benefit of any teams being on a bye this week, the odds of you having four receivers that I rank more favorably are high.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR | ARI (at MIN)

Marvin Harrison Jr. has finished just two weeks as a top-45 receiver since September, limitations that have to have his managers scrambling at this point. Are better days ahead?

Maybe, but it’s hard to look at the profile and be overly optimistic. He’s been held to single-digit expected points in three straight and hasn’t reached a dozen points in the expected category since Week 3.

There is an upside case to make for a high-pedigree receiver who has seen at least three deep targets in three of his past four games; against an aggressive Vikings defense, he could always victimize single coverage at the right time. I’m not comfortable betting on it as anything more than a Flex play this week against the third-best per-possession defense in the NFL.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR | IND (at NE)

With Josh Downs (shoulder) very much on the iffy side of questionable and Michael Pittman Jr. entering this game with 15 targets (54 routes) in the two games since Anthony Richardson stepped back into the starting lineup, it is very possible that this veteran receiver is set to make a late-season run that rewards you for your loyalty on him during this bumpy season.

When dealing with a sporadic quarterback, I want two boxes checked, and they aren’t too complicated: I want easy button targets and I want the team to script out looks. This season, when Richardson is under center, Downs and Pittman have accounted for 65% of his first-quarter completions and 66% of his slot targets.

I’m not saying Pittman absorbs all of Downs’ looks, but he’s certainly the favorite to see an uptick in usage. The Patriots are one of three defenses yet to intercept a pass thrown to the slot this season, giving Richardson the green light to pepper that part of the field.

There’s always a level of risk to consider, and that keeps Pittman as more of a Flex than a WR2 this week for me, but I think you’re playing him in most spots. I have him ranked ahead of big names like Garrett Wilson and DeAndre Hopkins.

Michael Wilson, WR | ARI (vs. NYJ)

Michael Wilson continues to be put in a position to succeed with an end-zone target in three of his past four games, but the days of a meaningful role are not upon us yet. The second-year receiver has just 12.8 expected PPR points over the past three games on 75 routes run, a lack of efficacy that should have him sitting on waiver wires in most formats.

Is he a post-hype sleeper in 2025? You could sell me on it. How about as someone I’m leaving the light on for 2024? Nope.

Mike Evans, WR | TB (at CAR)

Mike Evans was back on the field for the Bucs and immediately led the team in targets (six) and receiving yards (68) in the one-sided win over the Giants.

Was there some hesitation from Tampa Bay to fully unleash him? He posted a 10.8 aDOT in his return after missing over a month (four games prior: 13.8), something that I have on my notepad as something to watch, but not something that I’m yet reacting to, understanding that he could be ramping up to the role we’ve come to know and love.

This is as good a spot as any for the Bucs to return their WR1 to his field-stretching role – the Panthers rank 26th or worst against the deep pass in terms of completion percentage, yards per attempt, and touchdown rate.

Sportsbooks are projecting Tampa Bay for north of 25 points in this game. I don’t trust any other pass catcher in this offense, so Evans slots in as a WR1 in my Week 13 rankings.

Mike Williams, WR | PIT (at CIN)

On paper, Mike Williams makes a lot of sense for this offense, and maybe he will acclimate with time. But we are in the business of building a winning roster for Week 13. Despite the plus matchup, it’s impossible to call Flexing Williams anything more than a prayer.

Williams’ snap shares with Pittsburgh:

• Week 10 at Washington Commanders: 12%
• Week 11 vs. Baltimore Ravens: 31.1%
• Week 12 at Cleveland Browns: 28.4%

He’s seen one target as a Steeler, and of course, it was a 32-yard score. Pittsburgh was playing the long game when they acquired the deep threat, and we don’t have that luxury right now. Williams can be stashed in deep roster situations, but if you’re chasing a playoff berth, he’s not the type of player that needs to remain rostered.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR | TEN (at WAS)

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine saw five targets against the Texans, and the rules of 2024 state that he has to score when that is the case.

I kid. Sort of. He is literally scoring once every five targets this season and has found paydirt in six of the seven games this season in which he’s seen a target. Of course, this rate is unsustainable and I’m happy to keep fading a secondary weapon in a Will Levis-led offense.

I don’t believe in momentum. I look to make sense of everything in my life, not just fantasy football. I can’t explain what is going on with Westbrook-Ikhine and I tend to avoid what I can’t understand. If you want to chase good vibes, go for it. I won’t be joining you (one game with more than three catches this season).

Nico Collins, WR | HOU (at JAX)

That’s consecutive weeks with a long touchdown called back (a 33-yarder last week and a 77-yarder to kick off Week 11) for Nico Collins, a run of poor luck that his fantasy managers didn’t need after treading water without their WR1 for five games.

Even with those spike plays wiped off the board, Collins has produced 9.3% over expectations since his return to action, the five-yard touchdown in traffic against the Titans being another example of how well-rounded Houston’s star is.

The big plays are going nowhere due to the physical gifts and elite YAC abilities, something we’ve seen on full display recently via those two called-back scores. There are six receivers who I think have a chance to lead the position in points per game the rest of the way and Collins is a part of that list.

Noah Brown, WR | WAS (vs. TEN)

Noah Brown has quietly seen at least six targets in four of five games, a run that all started with the Hail Mary catch against the Bears. There is enough opportunity upside to chase (four games this season with an on-field target share of at least 25%) when it comes to building out a roster full of options, but asking him to return Flex value in this matchup with all 32 teams in action is a hurdle too high for me.

Brown has seen 28.1% of his receptions come downfield this season, making a top-seven defense in terms of defending the deep ball by both completion percentage and yards per attempt a tough sell.

I’ve added him to the backend of a few playoff-bound rosters, targeting the lack of stability behind Terry McLaurin as a way to have access to the upside without much resistance. The Week 14 bye makes Brown a no-go for fantasy teams that need every ounce of production over the next few weeks to qualify for the postseason, but if you’re in a good spot, I’m green-lighting this addition.

Parker Washington, WR | JAX (vs. HOU)

The Jaguars started Parker Washington in Week 9 and left him on the field for 84.3% of the snaps in that loss to the Eagles, but they’ve dialed back his role since (54.4% snap share) and he’s managed just one reception on those 36 routes.

The idea of capitalizing on the Christian Kirk injury was sound, but it didn’t work out and you owe it to your roster to continue cycling through options to fill out the back end of your roster. It’s easy to ignore your reserves until you need them, but successful fantasy managers are consistently tweaking things in an effort to optimize their roster. In that vein, move on from Washington for a player either attached to a more potent offense or one with a more clear path to volume.

If you’re really trying to get creative for a DFS lineup, it’s worth noting that the Texans allow a touchdown on a league-high 13.5% of slot passes.

Puka Nacua, WR | LAR (at NO)

Puka Nacua was ejected against the Seahawks for throwing a “punch.” If you extend his last four full games for a full season – 136 catches for 1,887 yards. We are looking at a special receiver that is playing alongside maybe the greatest WR elevator of this generation. There’s no reason to think that Nacua’s production dips in the slightest this week or moving forward.

We learn more year-over-year about the value of condensed offenses, something that has played out in spades recently. Here are the five receivers who have scored at least 18 points in each of their past two games:

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA)
• Nacua (LAR)
• Cooper Kupp (LAR)
• Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)
• Tee Higgins (CIN)

You’re playing Nacua, and everyone else on that list, with the utmost confidence for this week, the rest of this season, and for the foreseeable future.

Quentin Johnston, WR | LAC (at ATL)

With 59 air yards and a crossing route that was lining up for a big gain, the Chargers put Quentin Johnston in a spot to succeed last week. That is good to see, obviously, but, I’m told, that the ability to catch the ball is critical to the career path he has chosen and he simply couldn’t do that and was shut out as a result.

From a process standpoint, his involvement in an upward-trending offense should be encouraging. However, with four catches on 88 routes (15 targets) over the past three weeks, if you’re Flexing Johnston, you’re hoping more than projecting.

Is he the one who jumps on a Falcons defense that is allowing a league-high 8.5% of perimeter targets to result in scores? It’s possible. I’m not banking on it, but you come here for a well-rounded profile, so that needs to be mentioned – if you’re in a pinch, there is some hope based on math and fading the eye test.

Rashod Bateman, WR | BAL (vs. PHI)

Rashod Bateman offered a highlight play on Monday night, overcoming defensive pass interference to haul in a 40-yard touchdown pass, but that was essentially all we heard from him during the victory.

The fact that Lamar Jackson has thrown a deep touchdown pass in four straight games (the second-longest streak of his career) is encouraging enough to keep Bateman on your radar down the stretch as you could find yourself in point-chasing mode, but that doesn’t mean he needs to be rostered at this moment in time.

The Eagles boast a top-seven pass defense in terms of touchdown rate, passer rating, and yards per attempt, making them a less-than-ideal matchup the week before Baltimore heads on bye. If you want access to the big-play threat who has failed to catch more than three passes in four of his past five games, you’re wise to give it two weeks and not burn a roster spot in the meantime.

Ricky Pearsall, WR | SF (at BUF)

For a minute, it looked like the duel for the WR2 role in this offense was going to be competitive between Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings, but that is no longer the case. The rookie has earned just two targets (zero receptions) on his 44 routes over the past two weeks and there are no signs of production looming, even if Brock Purdy is back under center.

With four players now clearly ahead of him in this passing game, there is no reason to keep the light on for Pearsall. I’m far more likely to target offenses in Green Bay or Carolina that have a less solidified hierarchy when it comes to opportunity count and would suggest you do the same.

Rome Odunze, WR | CHI (at DET)

I really want to believe that Rome Odunze is going to be the latest example of a high-pedigree rookie receiver finding his footing when it matters most for fantasy managers. He only has three top-40 weeks this season despite an 83.3% snap share, a sign that he simply isn’t ready to produce at a high level just yet.

But I can’t quit him. He’s posted 10 targets and 17.1 expected PPR points in consecutive weeks, a step in the right direction. Also working in his favor is a role that has produced triple-digit air yards in four of his past five games. The profile is sound and that’s enough to keep him on my roster, even if the remaining schedule doesn’t paint a pretty picture.

Bears’ remaining schedule (opponent passer rating vs. deep passes):

• Week 13 at Detroit Lions (second)
• Week 14 at San Francisco 49ers (first)
• Week 15 at Minnesota Vikings (11th)
• Week 16 vs. Detroit Lions (second)
• Week 17 vs. Seattle Seahawks (14th)

I’ll be watching from a distance in the same way that I approach Thanksgiving dinner at my parents’ house. We are a crew with varied tastes, but my mom and mine align for the most part. I sit at the back of the line and see how she approaches the situation as the person who helped organize the entire event. If she highlights a certain dish, I’m in.

If Odunze shows signs of life in either of these two difficult matchups, I might just be in for the rematch against the Vikings with my fantasy season on the line. But for now, I’m watching from a distance with him on my bench.

Romeo Doubs, WR | GB (vs. MIA)

Romeo Doubs suffered a concussion during the Week 12 win over the 49ers. With a short week to prepare, it’s borderline unfathomable to think that the team would push him through protocol in time to play this week.

Active or not, Doubs doesn’t need to be rostered. He relied on touchdowns to matter last season (eight scores), but he’s been held out of the paint in nine of his 10 games this season and hasn’t shown growth in terms of earning targets. His absence makes a fantasy impact for those around him, but the hopes of him being an asset this season were dashed long ago.

Tank Dell, WR | HOU (at JAX)

Tank Dell has scored 8.3-10.2 PPR points in three straight games and I worry that there is more downward trajectory than reason for optimism.

With Nico Collins operating at close to full strength, Dell was able to carve out only a 14.3% on-field target share, something that creates a low floor and could be predictive given that he was at a sub-15.5% in Weeks 2-3, the last time we saw Collins used as a true WR1.

On Sunday, his aDOT was 21.0 yards, further widening the range of potential outcomes. There are going to be weeks where Dell wins vertically like he did in the first half last week for a 39-yard gain. Sometimes, those looks may take place in the end zone. You do, however, need to be aware of the downside that comes with such a role (Weeks 2-3: 59 yards and zero touchdowns on 72 routes).

The Jaguars allow the second most yards per deep pass this season and that has Dell firmly in my Flex rankings, something that might not be the case long-term.

Tee Higgins, WR | CIN (vs. PIT)

How good is Tee Higgins?

Ja’Marr Chase is a walking highlight reel, and that results in Higgins’ statistical star not shining quite as bright as it should. His on-field target share is 27.4% this season, 4.6 percentage points ahead of his previous career high and a level of involvement that has allowed him to record four straight games with over 75 receiving yards (four touchdowns in those games).

The target volume is one thing and the 116 air yards per game is another (20 more than any other season of his career). I don’t mean to put undo pressure on Cincinnati’s tandem, but that’s exactly what I’m going to do.

2004 Marvin Harrison Sr. and Reggie Wayne:

• 26.5% PPR production over expectation
• 2.24 PPR points per target
• 16.6% of receptions were touchdowns

2024 Chase and Higgins:

• 28.4% PPR production over expectation
• 2.29 PPR points per target
• 14.4% of receptions were touchdowns

Higgins’ name may not come with the same fanfare as that of Chase — it should. Both receivers are matchup-proof options that are more than capable of putting your fantasy team on their shoulders for the remainder of the season.

Terry McLaurin, WR | WAS (vs. TEN)

Life comes at you fast. Terry McLaurin had one catch for six yards in the first half last week, giving him a total of 16 yards during a six-quarter drought.

Right as you were ready to curse McLaurin out for a couple of poor weeks after a few strong months, the Cowboys lost all discipline and he was streaking down the right sideline for an 86-yard touchdown in one of the more chaotic finishes of the season.

The singular play is obviously an outlier, but it wasn’t an accident that Jayden Daniels went McLaurin’s direction in need of a miracle – that trust holds significant value. The Titans’ defense has been stout this season, but it’s 2024 and you can only limit production through the air to such a degree.

Through 12 weeks, 15 times has a receiver reached 10 PPR fantasy points against Tennessee with three WRs clearing 14 points against them over the past two weeks.

The ceiling may not be elite, but the floor is appealing enough to start McLaurin in all formats – he has 397 more receiving yards than any other Commanders receiver this season.

Tyler Lockett, WR | SEA (at NYJ)

The Seahawks have told us what they think about the target hierarchy in their offense and it’s pretty clear that Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf are the featured assets with nobody else even remotely close to viable.

Tyler Lockett has put together a great career, but we are in the business of predicting the future, not paying respects to the past. The veteran receiver didn’t earn five targets in a game during November and hasn’t reached 12 expected points in consecutive games since September.

I’d rather roll the dice weekly on any of the receivers in Carolina, opting to embrace the unknown as opposed to ignoring the clear signs of a player being phased out of the offense.

Tyreek Hill, WR | MIA (at GB)

That 80-yard touchdown that Tyreek Hill scored in Week 1 feels like a lifetime ago. That was the last time Miami’s WR1 had a catch that gained more than 30 yards, a drought that I would have told you was close to impossible if you prompted me in August.

But here we are. Now what?

I think we are OK and let me tell you why. During Miami’s three-game win streak, they’ve brought Hill closer to the line of scrimmage. His aDOT in those games is down 44.7% from the first nine weeks. While some people would sweat that and read it as a ceiling suppressant, I don’t mind it given the rest-of-season schedule.

• Thursday at Green Bay Packers: 23rd in YAC prevention
• Week 14 vs. New York Jets: fifth
• Week 15 at Houston Texans: 27th
• Week 16 vs. San Francisco 49ers: 18th
• Week 17 at Cleveland Browns: 30th

If the ‘Fins are going to make a point of getting the ball in Hill’s hands on shallow routes as opposed to running him vertically, these teams (with the exception of the Jets) are going to have to tackle well above their current metrics to stop him from putting up some big numbers.

I’m hanging in there. At the minimum, I think we see Hill post his third top-25 finish of the season. We saw last week that Miami is more than happy to pick at a weakness if it’s working (Jonnu Smith and Jaylen Waddle combined for a 50% target share last week against the Patriots).

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR | NYG (at DAL)

Oatmeal.

That’s what Wan’Dale Robinson is. When was the last time you had oatmeal and told anyone about it? At the same time, when was the last time you were disappointed or surprised by it?

That’s what Wan’Dale Robinson is. He’s caught at least five passes in eight of his past nine games, and there’s comfort in that, but without a 25-yard catch this season and no more than five looks in three of his past four, you’re never going to bring up Robinson in a discussion with your friends about the impact players for the week.

I’m as big a fan of oatmeal as anyone, so this isn’t a knock on a great breakfast. You know what you’re signing up for here, and if you’re in a PPR matchup that values 8-12 fantasy points, you can feel good about Robinson against a team that has allowed opponents to complete 69.6% of their passes since Week 6 (sixth-highest).

Xavier Legette, WR | CAR (vs. TB)

Did you know that Xavier Legette and David Moore have the same on-field target share this season?

My guess is no, and yet, one has been kicking around fantasy rosters while the other, before last week, you may not have known what team he was on. The rookie has some splash-play ability (a 34-yard catch on the first drive last week and four straight games with a reception of 23+ yards), but he’s not earning opportunities at nearly a high enough level to overcome the below-average QB play that Carolina runs out there.

I maintain my thought that this Panthers offense will be one that I’m looking at in the later stages of drafts this summer, but that’s a long-term thought that we will discuss at a later date. For right now, Legette doesn’t deserve lineup consideration (his next 70-yard game will be his first).

Xavier Worthy, WR | KC (vs. LV)

Friends, the time is here. It has to be. I’ve resisted the urge to bet on Xavier Worthy, but the time is here. The time is now to make a statement.

We know the speed profile that exists here, so I’m choosing to read the recent development as a positive one, understanding that, despite these trends, he remains in scoring position the second he steps onto the field.

• Week 9 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Two targets, 23.5 aDOT
• Week 10 vs. Denver Broncos: Four targets, 16.3 aDOT
• Week 11 at Buffalo Bills: Five targets, 14.4 aDOT
• Week 12 at Carolina Panthers: Six targets, 10.5 aDOT

You’re likely aware that this is a plus matchup, but I’m guessing you don’t understand the degree to which that is true. Worthy has posted a 19.6% on-field target share this season when Patrick Mahomes isn’t pressured (9.3% otherwise), something I’m weighing in this game against the defense that heats up quarterbacks at the second-lowest rate in the league.

But wait, there’s more.

The target equity increase is a start but not enough to put our fate in the hands of this volatile rookie. The Raiders allow the ninth-highest passer rating this season on deep passes (104.9), a weakness that the Chiefs tried to exploit in the Week 8 meeting with three deep targets to Worthy; they just didn’t pan out. He did, however, earn five short-range targets in that game, including a score, giving me confidence that we may have a few more outs this week than a standard matchup.

I’m not done.

The value of Worthy’s targets is on the rise (EPA per target over the past two weeks is at +0.74, up from -0.31 over his previous five games), and he has a rush attempt in eight of 11 games. I’m in the mood to keep dumping stats on you, so can I interest you in a defense that has allowed 44.8% of end-zone targets to be caught (eighth-highest)?

This is more of a coincidence than anything, but you can’t stop me now. Worthy’s profile is similar to that of Jameson Williams, no? Skinny speed demons from big-name programs with first-round draft capital?

The next two games will be Worthy’s 12th and 13th with, barring some sort of unforeseen change, career games with a snap share north of 50%. Williams crossed that threshold earlier this season — in those two games, he turned six targets into 156 yards and a pair of scores.

Most people have used their “I’m going in on Worthy card” at this point, but I’ve been disciplined. I’ve held back.

That changes on Friday.

Zay Flowers, WR | BAL (vs. PHI)

Is it possible that we are 12 weeks into this season and I’ve yet to truly nail a Zay Flowers projection?

I think it is. He’s a tough receiver to figure out on a weekly basis (six games under 40 receiving yards but also four games with over 110), but from a process standpoint, I think you’re plugging him in as a low-end WR2 and taking your chances.

Since Week 8, only three qualified receivers have a 26% on-field target share while also producing 20% over PPR expectations, and Flowers is on that list (if you’re interested, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Courtland Sutton are the other two).

The Eagles’ defense is one that I think caps Flowers’ upside (fifth-ranked red-zone defense), but I’m viewing the floor as what we saw last week (five catches for 62 yards). That’s enough to justify your faith. Philadelphia allows the eighth-most yards per catch after the reception on slot passes this year, a scab that the Ravens could pick at with their WR1.

Week 13 Fantasy Football Tight Ends

Brock Bowers, TE | LV (at KC)

With a touchdown or 10 targets in six of his past seven games, Brock Bowers is giving you an edge in expected production at the pos

ition over every team in your league. The loss of Gardner Minshew II isn’t something that I’m worried about as the game plan should remain in place while the quality of looks can’t really move down.

You’re playing Bowers, and you’re doing it with confidence. Rookie tight ends have historically struggled, and an outlier like Bowers isn’t enough to reverse those trends completely. Tyler Warren of Penn State is a weapon, but I’m going to get ahead of it by nine months — be careful in moving him way up your 2025 rankings. He’s great, but this remains a historically difficult position to transition to the professional game.

Cade Otton, TE | TB (at CAR)

I’m going to keep posting these pretty target plots in this space until I get some sort of confirmation that people are listening.

On the left is Cade Otton’s target distribution with Mike Evans on the field this season; on the right, without. There’s a 27.5% dip in the average depth of his targets to consider, but I’m less worried about where the dots are and more worried about the lack of dots.

Otton has run 183 routes with Evans on the field and 188 without — he has more catches (32) with him off the field than he has targets with him on it (29). I understand wanting to chase Otton’s season-long numbers, and heck, he did have a 30-yard catch last week, but we are talking about a player in a position to earn one target for every 6.3 routes for a six-point road favorite.

How many routes is he realistically going to run? Does he reach the 28 he did last week? I understand that Noah Gray scored twice in this matchup last week, but I’m dismissive of DvP data when it comes to the tight end position, especially when you’re talking about an offense in Kansas City that offers unique packages and another tight end to draw attention.

Otton isn’t a starter for me this week, and as long as the data doesn’t change and Evans stays on the field, that’s not going to change any time soon.

Cole Kmet, TE | CHI (at DET)

Settle down, people.

We see these random spikes from Cole Kmet every so often and only the strong fantasy managers avoid the temptation. If you’re not familiar with his work …

• Weeks 4-5, 2023: 12 catches for 127 yards and three TDs
  • The next two games: Three targets on 48 routes for nine yards
• Weeks 8-9, 2023: 16 catches for 134 yards and two TDs
  • The next three games: No more than 45 yards in any game, zero TDs
• Week 3, 2024: 10 catches for 97 yards and a TD
  • The next two games: Seven targets on 48 routes for 91 yards
• Week 6, 2024: Five catches for 70 yards and two TDs
  • The next three games: Five targets on 92 routes for 27 yards

Kmet was the beneficiary of a high-volume game from Caleb Williams (47 attempts; seven games before: 29.6 attempts per game) — a 21.3% target share produces far less impressive numbers if the attempt count is closer to the norm.

I’ll listen to your argument that Chicago is likely to be forced to abandon the run this week as a double-digit underdog. That’s fair, but are you confident in Kmet as a target earner? I’m not. His on-field target share in Weeks 8-11 was 5.7%, a rate that ranks well below any option that you’re even remotely considering.

At best, we are discussing the fourth-best option in the passing game under the tutelage of a sporadic rookie against a rapidly improving defense. If that’s the profile you want to chase, go for it — just don’t blame me if it doesn’t work out. Kmet is my TE20 for Week 13.

Dallas Goedert, TE | PHI (at BAL)

Sunday night was a pretty good representation of the Dallas Goedert profile. He posted an impressive 26.3% target share with DeVonta Smith (hamstring) sidelined, but Philadelphia didn’t need to pass in volume (22 pass attempts against 45 rush attempts), which suppressed Goedert’s value in a significant way.

The veteran TE has caught 83.3% of his targets this season, a level of efficiency I expect to sustain, and that’s enough to keep Goedert in fantasy lineups. He’s averaging just 9.2 yards per catch this season if you remove three chunk plays against the Saints in Week 3, capping his upside in a significant way but not enough to justify passing on him in favor of a random number generator sitting on your waiver wire.

Dalton Kincaid, TE | BUF (vs. SF)

A knee injury resulted in Dalton Kincaid missing the Week 11 win over the Chiefs, but with the bye week to rehab, the hope is that he will be on the field Sunday night.

Kincaid’s route tree has been opened up a bit this season (aDOT up 17.9% from his encouraging rookie season), but that has created a dip in efficiency that has submarined his value (one finish inside the top 10 this season).

• 2023: 80.2% catch rate
• 2024: 40.7% catch rate

Nick Bosa (hip/oblique) missed last week’s game against the Packers. If he were to sit out again, that would result in me shifting Kincaid up a few spots in my rankings. As it is, he’s a fringe TE1 more because of my faith in this offense than anything Kincaid has done to earn our trust (yet to clear 52 receiving yards in a game).

I’m penciling Kincaid into my lineups, though I am creating contingency plans should his knee not respond the way Buffalo hopes.

Dalton Schultz, TE | HOU (at JAX)

If you were holding out hope on Dalton Schultz, it’s time to move on. To be honest, it’s well beyond that time, but if you’re reading this section, that means that you’ve yet to pull the trigger.

Schultz’s 5.4% on-field target share last week was a career low (minimum 10 routes run) and ranked sixth on this team in a script that was reasonably slanted toward the passing game.

I don’t think we get a game flow that looks anything like that this week. Even if we do, it’s clear that C.J. Stroud is more comfortable looking elsewhere (Cade Stover posted season highs in receptions and targets last week with his first touchdown of the year).

David Njoku, TE | CLE (at DEN)

The weather last Thursday night ended up hurting David Njoku as much as anyone, a touch of irony for a player who insisted on warming up in the elements without a shirt on. He caught just one of five targets in the upset win over the Steelers, a level of inefficiency that included a dropped touchdown that had the potential to bail out fantasy managers from a very underwhelming performance.

I’m not reading into the bad game. Njoku caught all nine of his looks the week prior in a weather-proof game against the Saints, so the connection with Jameis Winston isn’t something I fear. It’s worth noting that his average depth of target is up 66.7% with Winston under center compared to when Deshaun Watson was calling the shots.

The schedule isn’t pretty, and nothing but potential weather spots loom. I’m still not worried.

Njoku, in my opinion, remains the most stable force in Cleveland’s passing game and is deserving of your trust for the remainder of the season.

Dawson Knox, TE | BUF (vs. SF)

Dawson Knox was on the field for 83.1% of Buffalo’s Week 11 snaps with Dalton Kincaid (knee) sidelined, a near 30-percentage point increase from where his rate stood prior.

Should Kincaid sit again, by all means, get exposure to Buffalo’s elite offense as you stream the position. But if the young tight end is back on the field and protecting for his standard role, there’s no utility in Knox (four straight games without a red-zone target and hasn’t cleared 50 receiving yards in a game since Week 15, 2022).

Evan Engram, TE | JAX (vs. HOU)

These backup QB situations create projection chaos, so it’s nice when a player like Evan Engram emerges.

With Mac Jones (2024):

• 30.6% on-field target share
• 73.3% catch rate
• 7.1 aDOT

With Trevor Lawrence (2024):

• 25.6% on-field target share
• 73.5% catch rate
• 6.2 aDOT

Engram is the only Jaguar I’m confident in these days, and I like his chances to catch at least five passes for the sixth time in seven games. With an implied team total of under 20 points, I’m not chasing Engram in a DFS setting where ceilings are rewarded. However, in any redraft league where I roster Engram, I’m starting him with confidence.

George Kittle, TE | SF (at BUF)

George Kittle didn’t see much change in terms of his role last weekend with Brock Purdy on the shelf. That has me comfortable in locking the star tight end regardless of the QB situation.

• 2024: 20% on-field target share, 9.0 aDOT, and 12.1 expected points
• Week 12: 22.2% on-field target share, 10.0 aDOT, and 11.9 expected points

The 49ers have made it clear that, no matter the players on the field, Kittle is the man they trust as the end zone comes into focus. He’s scored eight times in his past eight games, and with the Bills focusing on preventing big perimeter plays, he should have room to operate in the middle portion of the field.

Hunter Henry, TE | NE (vs. IND)

Drake Maye is peppering the TE position with targets these days but hasn’t featured one exclusively, which makes both Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper difficult to count on.

Over the past three weeks, Henry has earned 21 targets to Hooper’s 12. That’s encouraging, but his lead in the reception department over that stretch is just 12-11. Add in the consistent role of DeMario Douglas (27 targets in November) and the involvement of the running backs — there’s just not much upward trajectory for any pass catcher in this offense.

I prefer Henry to Hooper if you’re in the tortured spot of having to decide, but there are 15 players at the position I like more than either, so you can do better in most situations.

Isaiah Likely, TE | BAL (vs. PHI)

I can’t be the only one wondering how Isaiah Likely is featured on the hands team, the most important play of the game, but has been held without a reception in two of his past three games and hasn’t earned more than five targets in a game since his dramatic season opener.

Are his hands so good that we want to save them for the onside kick?

That’s some serious 4D chess if that’s the thought process. More likely, however, is that this offense just isn’t designed to run through the tight end position. The running game is clearly the driving force while the versatility of Zay Flowers and the field stretching of Rashod Bateman are the preferred receiver types.

I’m holding my Likely dynasty shares but not with the thought that they yield much in the way of returns for the remainder of 2024.

Jake Ferguson, TE | DAL (vs. NYG)

Jake Ferguson suffered a concussion early in Week 11 against the Texans and was forced to sit out last week. We will be tracking his ability to navigate protocol, but anything less than full strength will have me looking for other options at the position.

The Giants matchup isn’t prohibitive, but we are looking at an offense that lacks upside and a player in Ferguson who has cleared 25 receiving yards just four times this season. The vast majority of his reps have come with Dak Prescott under center, and his odds of scoring his first touchdown of the season certainly aren’t higher with Cooper Rush under center.

Even if cleared, Luke Schoonmaker has shown well for himself in his pinch-hitting opportunity, casting doubt that Ferguson approaches the 7.1 targets he averaged pre-injury.

Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE | CAR (vs. TB)

Ja’Tavion Sanders suffered a scary-looking head/neck injury in the first half of last week’s loss to the Chiefs, which landed him in the hospital following the game. Hopefully, everything checks out health-wise, as there have been flashes of difference-making talent in this profile. However, there’s no reason for the Panthers to be aggressive with him, and that has me looking in other directions at the position.

If Sanders can return to a full workload, we can circle back, but there’s no reason to take on this level of risk. The future is bright for him and maybe this offense as a whole — don’t forget about his name this summer.

Jonnu Smith, TE | MIA (at GB)

Think about where you were three months ago. If you’re anything like me (thoughts and prayers if that’s the case), you were knees deep in your rankings with your draft only hours away.

What is the target share going to look like in Cincinnati with Joe Burrow back? Can Derrick Henry score 20 touchdowns? Is this the year of Kyle Pitts?

All of those thoughts, at one point or another, kept me up at night. I think about this stuff as much as anyone, and I can assure you that at no point in my millions of racing thoughts in August, did I think that Jonnu Smith would be one of two players this season to post consecutive 6-85-1 receiving stat lines through 12 weeks (other: Garrett Wilson).

The veteran tight end had an 11-yard grab on Miami’s first offensive snap last week and was responsible for five of Tua Tagovailoa’s first seven completions, a run of production that included a seven-yard score.

Tagovailoa has struggled to get both of his All-Pro receivers involved, but he’s clearly comfortable with what Smith offers. And with Miami needing to be nearly perfect to qualify for the postseason, I don’t see any reason to think things change.

The Packers are a below-average red-zone defense, opening the door for Smith to get you to the finish line, even if the volume were to regress.

Juwan Johnson, TE | NO (vs. LAR)

Juwan Johnson scored in Week 11, but it required his first end-zone target since Week 1 and was yet another game with under 50 receiving yards. Anything can happen in New Orleans if they are going to give Taysom Hill as many touches as he’s had recently, but considering that they haven’t trusted Johnson with 25 routes in a game since mid-October, there’s no reason to go this far down the rankings.

The TE streamer tier is underwhelming, but there are a handful of options out there who are either a part of a productive offense (Dalton Schultz and Zach Ertz) or in the midst of seeing their role increase (Will Dissly and Ja’Tavion Sanders).

Kyle Pitts, TE | ATL (vs. LAC)

It’s the holiday season, and you know what that means — having to explain to the in-laws what you do.

No? That’s just me?

Every year I describe the “fantasy analyst” thing, and they ask why it requires so much time. This year, I’m going to be prepared. I’m going to print out Kyle Pitts’ weekly finishes and show them:

• Week 8: TE2
• Week 9: TE40
• Week 10: TE12
• Week 11: TE42

“My job is to get ahead of wild swings like this, and that is why it takes time.”

So where has my time gone this week? Trying to identify why those productive weeks occurred.

Both good weeks came against defenses that rank below league average in pressure rate when not blitzing, while the poor weeks came against top-12 units in that regard.

Despite the limitations in blitz success rate, both defenses that coughed up production to Pitts are top 12 in sack rate, while the dud stat lines came against a below-average defense in that respect.

Drum roll, please …

The Chargers fit the former. They aren’t a high success rate defense when it comes to blitzing, but they own a top-five sack rate. Giddy up!

Now that we know that this matchup mirrors that of past plus performances, I have something to share with my in-laws about the attention to detail that my job requires. Am I opening myself up to a boatload of questions come Christmas time when Pitts goes 2-17-0 this week?

I am, and that would mean not only the questioning of my profession but also if I’m any good at it. So, yeah, I have more riding on my top 10 ranking of Pitts this week than you do.

Luke Schoonmaker, TE | DAL (vs. NYG)

I was a little skeptical about what Luke Schoonmaker’s role would look like with him the planned starter as opposed to filling in on the fly for Jake Ferguson, but I saw enough last week in Washington to sell me on him as a fringe top-15 option should Ferguson (concussion) need another week to recover.

Schoonmaker, a 2023 second-round pick, ran a route on all 20 of his snaps in Week 12 and turned that role into a 3-55-1 stat line. The touchdown obviously saved the day, but Dallas viewing him as an asset in the passing game is interesting.

Against a defense that owns the third-lowest opponent average depth of throw this season, I like the odds of another viable PPR performance on 5-7 targets should he assume the starting role for another week.

Mark Andrews, TE | BAL (vs. PHI)

Mark Andrews made a nice catch in the back of the end zone last week, but he is walking such a thin line to be productive for fantasy managers. He was on the field for a season-low 41.7% of snaps last week; while the 5-44-1 stat line is nice, it’s hard to produce if you’re not consistently on the field.

I loved that they used him in-line (72% slot share), and that is something I’ll be tracking, but Todd Monken has made it clear that he doesn’t need pass-catching tight ends for this offense to function how he wants.

I’m not going to rank either Baltimore tight end as a starter unless things change dramatically down the stretch.

Mike Gesicki, TE | CIN (vs. PIT)

The last time we saw Mike Gesicki was Week 11 against the Chargers, a zero-catch performance that left fantasy managers disappointed in a game in which the Bengals scored 27 points.

We’ve seen the role come and go for Cincy’s TE (five games with fewer than three targets and four games with over four targets), but Gesicki is consistently given the opportunity to earn targets, which is enough for me if I’m streaming the position.

Over the past two weeks, Gesicki has run a route on 87 of 115 Joe Burrow dropbacks (75.7%). This team is only going to go as far as the offense will take them, and it’s clear that they are plenty comfortable with their fate in the hands of their franchise quarterback.

Gesicki’s floor is a low one, but with a ceiling volume projection that is well ahead of the other tight ends in this tier, he’s plenty viable, even in a tough matchup.

Pat Freiermuth, TE | PIT (at CIN)

We entered Week 12 with concerns about Darnell Washington’s upward trending snap share, but Pat Freiermuth clearly has Russell Wilson’s trust, which resulted in a respectable four-catch, 59-yard outing against the Browns in the snow last Thursday night.

Freiermuth has caught 35 of 40 targets this season (13 of 14 from Russell Wilson), and I was encouraged by the Steelers experimenting with working him down the field a bit in Week 12. It’s a tiny sample, and I’m not adjusting my per-target upside projection, though it was good to see him haul in a pair of passes thrown 10+ yards downfield (he had one such catch in his previous five games).

With the bye behind him and a net positive matchup grade over the next month, I have Freiermuth penciled in as a fringe TE1, just ahead of the streamer tier, and a player you can hold onto.

Sam LaPorta, TE | DET (vs. CHI)

Sam LaPorta (shoulder) was plenty healthy following the missed game (93.1% snap share), and yet, for the seventh time in 10 games, he failed to reach double figures in PPR points. The role doesn’t look drastically different this year than last, but after posting a 21.7% on-field target share as a rookie, LaPorta has reached that rate just twice in 2024.

I’m going to keep ranking him as a fringe starter, hoping that the process pays off more than the statistical struggles. Detroit’s first pass play last week against the Colts was a designed short one to their tight end, seemingly in an effort to get LaPorta going. I like to see that, even if he managed just two catches for 14 yards the rest of the way.

If I’m going to lose these critical weeks, I’m comfortable in going down with a ship tethered to one of the most explosive offenses in the sport. LaPorta is my TE13 this week, checking in just behind a matchup play in Dallas Goedert (at Baltimore).

Taysom Hill, TE | NO (vs. LAR)

You may have heard that Taysom Hill had himself a day the last time his Saints took the field.

Hill’s production in Week 11 vs. the Cleveland Browns:

• 18 passing yards
• 138 rushing yards and three TDs
• 50 receiving yards (36.4% reception share)

Hill ranked second in rushing yards for the week while seeing more targets than Puka Nacua and recording more catches than Tyreek Hill. Hopefully, you cashed in on the historic week. No matter what you think of New Orleans’ unique weapon, weeks like that simply don’t come around.

Forget the production and look at the usage. The fact that Hill was put in a position to post a crazy stat line like that is enough to keep him ranked as a TE1 for me this week, even without the benefit of having any teams on bye.

Over his past four games, Hill has averaged 10.3 traditional opportunities (targets + rushes) per game. Given the proximity of his average snap to the goal line, you’re starting him if you have him against a bottom-five yards-after-catch defense this weekend.

T.J. Hockenson, TE | MIN (vs. ARI)

After totaling 112 yards in his first three games of the season, T.J. Hockenson burned the Bears for 114 yards on nine targets (seven catches) in the Week 12 win. In a game that came down to the wire, I loved to see the star TE account for 60% of Minnesota’s receiving yards in the fourth quarter of a close game, and I am comfortable locking him in as a top-10 producer the rest of the way.

The late-game usage was encouraging, and so was the Vikings’ willingness to extend his routes downfield. Hockenson posted a 10.1 aDOT last week, fueling two chunk gains (20 and 34 yards), giving him access to a nice ceiling to complement his stable floor.

Travis Kelce, TE | KC (vs. LV)

For the fourth time in five games, Travis Kelce vacuumed in at least eight targets, and he paid off for fantasy managers with 12.2 PPR points. Was it annoying that, for a second consecutive week, Noah Gray caught a pair of touchdowns? It was, but in terms of projecting things forward, the involvement of the backup TE isn’t impacting my ranking of Kelce in a significant way.

I was encouraged that the Chiefs drew up a few screens for their veteran, easy-button targets that rack up PPR points. I don’t think Kelce is a threat to lead tight ends in scoring the rest of the way, but he’s a safe bet to return top-12 production, which holds value at a volatile position.

Trey McBride, TE | ARI (at MIN)

There are four tight ends this millennium with at least three 10-catch games before turning 26 years of age: Jeremy Shockey, Kellen Winslow, Tony Gonzalez, and Trey McBride.

We liked the idea of McBride being the unquestioned second option in this passing game entering the season, and after 12 weeks, it’s clear that he’s the top threat. He had half of Arizona’s receptions in Seattle last week, and with seven first-down receptions, the Cardinals essentially trusted him to keep them ahead of the sticks.

McBride is my top-ranked TE for the remainder of the season, as Arizona tries to leverage a forgiving rest-of-season schedule and turn it into a divisional title.

Tucker Kraft, TE, | GB (vs. MIA)

Tucker Kraft capped an impressive first drive for the Packers last weekend against the 49ers with a score (his sixth of the season), but the production was gone as quickly as it came. The second-year tight end finished with just two catches for 26 yards and has now been held under 35 receiving yards in five of his past six games.

Kraft was unable to earn targets at a reasonable rate despite Romeo Doubs (concussion) departing early and San Francisco having to fully commit to plug the run game. He’s been on the field for 85.2% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps this season, and with this Black Friday game pushing a 48-point total, I understand the thought process that will get you to label Kraft as a viable option.

However, Kraft sits just outside of my top 15 this week with all 32 teams in action, given a role that simply isn’t consistent enough for my liking. I’ll take Jonnu Smith over him if we are picking tight ends to bet on in this game.

Tyler Conklin, TE | NYJ (vs. SEA)

If Tyler Conklin is the answer to your TE questions — there’s always next season. Care to venture a guess as to how many tight ends had more receiving yards than Conklin in Weeks 9-11 (eighth at the position in routes run over that stretch), before New York went on their bye?

Sixty-four.

Look somewhere else. Anywhere else, I beg of you.

Will Dissly, TE | LAC (at ATL)

Will Dissly pulled in an 18-yard catch on Los Angeles’ first drive last week and was great in Week 11 against the Bengals (4-80-1). He’s clearly worked his way into a role as this offense slowly opens up, but I worry that the target ceiling is only so high.

Ladd McConkey has established himself as a reliable option, and with two other receivers who will have their moments, Dissly is more of a matchup play for me.

This is one of those matchups.

The Falcons rank 21st in red-zone defense and 30th on third downs, two areas where the Bolts value what it is that their athletic tight end brings to the table.

I’m looking for 6-7 targets and 4-5 receptions, TE volume high enough to land him inside of my top 15, especially when you consider that the Chargers are willing to explore his matchups down the field on linebackers.

Zach Ertz, TE | WAS (vs. TEN)

We have Brock Bowers breaking the mold for young tight ends, but don’t sleep on the elder statesmen. Jonnu Smith has 15 catches and three touchdowns over the past two weeks, and Zach Ertz has quietly been producing ever since Jayden Daniels’ (ribs) injury.

The veteran TE has been a top-10 producer at the position in four of his past six games (four end-zone targets over that stretch). Ertz has been on the field for over 70% of Washington’s snaps in each of the past three, and as a part of an offense that lacks a WR2 (Ertz has 17 more targets than any Commander not named McLaurin this season), the volume projects as stable.

Ertz and Daniels showed a nice connection on their timing-based four-yard score over the weekend. I have Ertz ranked well within the reasonable starter range. I’m playing him over Cade Otton, Mark Andrews, and a few other tight ends who have had peaks and valleys this year.