The Detroit Lions arguably are the best team in the NFL. Loaded on both sides of the ball, Dan Campbell’s group appears primed for another deep playoff run. A win over the Chicago Bears on Thursday now moves the Lions one step closer to clinching a postseason berth.
But what are the chances of the Lions making the playoffs or winning the Super Bowl? Let’s look at all the scenarios in play.
Lions Playoff-Clinching Scenarios
The Lions became the NFC’s only 10-win team by taking down the Indianapolis Colts in Week 12. And now, with the victory over the Bears, they are an 11-win team.
Detroit is the favorite in the NFC North race, but the Minnesota Vikings and Packers are keeping things interesting as December approaches. While the Lions can’t win the division on Sunday, they were in a position to clinch a playoff berth.
Here’s how Dan Campbell’s squad would have been able to punch their ticket in Week 13:
- DET win + SF loss/tie + ARI loss/tie + SEA loss + TB loss/tie
- DET win + SF loss/tie + ARI loss + SEA tie + TB loss/tie
- DET win + SF loss/tie + ARI loss/tie + WAS loss/tie + ATL loss
- DET win + SF loss/tie + ARI loss/tie + WAS loss + ATL tie
- DET win + SF loss/tie + ARI loss + SEA tie + WAS loss + ATL loss
- DET win + SF loss/tie + ARI loss + SEA tie + WAS loss + ATL tie
While they would have needed a lot to go their way on Sunday, all of it almost came through. The 49ers, Cardinals, and Falcons lost, but the Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Commanders won.
They’ll have another shot in Week 14 to secure their place in this year’s playoffs.
Can the Lions Win the NFC North?
Here’s what the NFC North race looks like heading into Week 14:
- The Detroit Lions have a 62.4% chance to win the NFC North.
- The Minnesota Vikings have a 26.7% chance to win the NFC North.
- The Green Bay Packers have a 10.9% chance to win the NFC North.
- The Chicago Bears have a 0.0% chance to win the NFC North.
Current NFC North Standings
- Detroit Lions (11-1)
- Minnesota Vikings (10-2)
- Green Bay Packers (9-3)
- Chicago Bears (4-8)
NFC Playoff Race | Week 16
1. Detroit Lions (13-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)
3. Los Angeles Rams (9-6)
4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (11-4)
7. Washington Commanders (10-5)
In The Hunt
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
9. Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Eliminated From Playoffs
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
11. Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-10)
14. Chicago Bears (4-11)
15. Carolina Panthers (4-11)
16. New York Giants (2-13)
Lions’ Super Bowl Chances After Week 13
Can Detroit win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that the Lions have a 30.4% chance to win it all.
Remaining Lions Schedule
- Week 14: vs. Green Bay Packers
- Week 15: vs. Buffalo Bills
- Week 16: at Chicago Bears
- Week 17: at San Francisco 49ers
- Week 18: vs. Minnesota Vikings
What PFN Predicted for the Lions vs. Bears Matchup
Here’s where both teams rank in various Pro Football Network Metrics:
Lions
Offense+ Metric: 2nd (A)
Defense+ Metric: 2nd (D-)
Jared Goff QB+ Metric: 4th (A-)
Bears
Offense+ Metric: 26th (D)
Defense+ Metric: 7th (B)
Caleb Williams QB+ Metric: 32nd (D-)
On paper, this is a mismatch. The game also is in Detroit, and the Lions typically play very well at home.
The Lions won their last nine games after dropping the second game of the season. During that span, they scored fewer than 24 points just once and topped 40 points four times, including two games with over 50 points.
Their offense is firing on all cylinders, to the point that they scored 26 points against the Houston Texans in Week 10 despite Goff throwing five interceptions.
Detroit’s physical, playmaking defense also could cause nightmares for a Bears offense that’s topped 30 points just twice this season. It’s hard to envision Williams getting comfortable in this situation.
However, divisional games are tricky. When two teams know each other this well, the game typically ends up close.
Plus, Williams and the Bears are coming off a 27-point effort against the Vikings, who have one of the NFL’s best defenses. Williams had arguably his best game of the season, completing 68.1% of his passes for 340 yards and two TDs while throwing zero interceptions.
If he can build on that performance and Chicago’s defense can hold the Lions’ offense under 30 points, the Bears could have a shot. They certainly have enough talent to win this game.
Still, you can’t pick against Detroit. (It still feels weird to write that sentence.)
PFN Prediction: Bears 20, Lions 34