The NFL’s Thanksgiving Day schedule features three games, and we have the picks and predictions you need to walk away from the holiday actually up money! Not all of the games are the most exciting (Cowboys vs. Giants might be the perfect time for a nap), but who can complain when we get an extra day full of football?
While this article will focus exclusively on the Thanksgiving games, be sure to check out our picks and predictions for the full Week 13 slate as well.
NFL Thanksgiving Day Betting Lines, Odds, Picks, Predictions
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-10.5)
- Moneyline: Bears +425; Lions -575
- Total: 48
On the surface, everything suggests that backing the Detroit Lions here is the right play. They are on top of our Power Rankings+ metric by some distance and rank above the Chicago Bears in all phases of the game while playing a harder schedule. They are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) at home and 9-2 ATS on the entire season.
However, the Bears have been a tough opponent for the Vikings and Packers in consecutive weeks. Chicago covered in both games, and it’s clear the Bears have stepped up their plate from their woeful run coming out of the bye week.
With that said, the Lions are a step above those two teams, and both of those games were played in Chicago.
The short week should favor the better head coach (Dan Campbell) and the veteran quarterback (Jared Goff), but there’s a risk Detroit looks past this game with a huge matchup against Green Bay next Thursday. Additionally, the Lions have not won on Thanksgiving since 2016, with the Bears beating them three times on Turkey Day since then.
History tells you not to back the Lions on Thanksgiving, but this is a different level of team to the one we’ve seen in recent years. I like Detroit to win, but covering over 10 points makes me nervous on the short week, so the best option would be to look to tease this game down to around 4.5 or five points and pair it with under 54. I like the under at 48, but a same game parlay is very intriguing.
Prediction: Lions 24, Bears 17
Pick: Lions -4.5 & Under 54 in a teaser, and Under 48
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-4)
- Moneyline: Giants +164; Cowboys -198
- Total: 38
It might be a good time to bank some brownie points with your family and step away from football for a few hours during the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys matchup. This is set to be a matchup between Tommy DeVito and Cooper Rush, which is hardly the headline matchup the NFL would have hoped for.
The numbers for both teams this season tell you that this game should be close. The Giants’ numbers are mostly formed with Daniel Jones, and DeVito is a downgrade on that front.
Therefore, the Cowboys should, in theory, be the play. But are you really trusting your money to Cooper Rush on Thanksgiving? This game is a pass.
Prediction: Cowboys 21, Giants 17
Pick: Pass
Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
- Moneyline: Dolphins +154; Packers -185
- Total: 47.5
To close out Thanksgiving, a fascinating matchup featuring two teams that have had QB injury issues this year will go head-to-head in Lambeau Field. The Green Bay Packers are higher in our PR+ rankings thanks to a tougher strength of schedule and slightly superior special teams play. However, when you isolate just the offense and defense numbers, these two teams are extremely well-matched.
Both offenses have generally been good with their starting quarterback under center, while the defenses have blown hot and cold, which could make this a back-and-forth contest.
The weather forecast could impact this game, with a warm-weather team traveling North to play a night game in what should be freezing conditions. It won’t be Kansas City cold, but it will be far from a Miami evening, with temperatures dipping to around 25.
The weather makes me lean towards the Packers to close out Thanksgiving. The Miami Dolphins have beaten mediocre teams in recent weeks, and that run of softer matchups ends here.
Somewhere in the region of three to seven points for the Packers feels right. If this line gets to three, then I would look to take Green Bay.
Prediction: Packers 24, Dolphins 20
Pick: Packers -3 (if the line gets there)