Miami Dolphins principals Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel arguably have never been better together. And as a result, the Dolphins’ playoff hopes have gone from a flicker to a low burn.
But even after Sunday’s 34-15 thrashing of the New England Patriots, the Dolphins are far more likely to miss the playoffs than make it. That’s because their primary competition for what appears to be the last remaining playoff spot — the Denver Broncos — continues to win.
But hope remains, simply because the Dolphins have the more experienced quarterback and the easier remaining path.
Updated Miami Dolphins Playoff Chances
Tagovailoa and the Dolphins continue to dig out of the massive hole they tossed themselves into with six losses in seven games.
They will enter Week 13 with a 5-6 record and as the AFC’s eighth seed. They remain a game and a half behind Bo Nix and the seventh-seeded Broncos (7-5), who took care of business Sunday, beating the bad Las Vegas Raiders 29-19.
According to our QB+ metric, Tua Tagovailoa was graded as the second-best QB in the AFC through the early slate of games, only trailing Patrick Mahomes. 👀
Tua threw 4 touchdowns today vs. NE, his most in a game since Week 3 of the 2023 season. 📈 pic.twitter.com/f9iekWwrPD
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 25, 2024
The Dolphins did get some help Sunday when the Detroit Lions handed the Indianapolis Colts their seventh loss of the season.
That means that — short of a complete collapse by the Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3), Los Angeles Chargers (7-3), or Baltimore Ravens (7-4) — the Broncos and Dolphins will spend the rest of the season battling for one playoff spot.
Six weeks out, the Broncos have the decided edge. According to the PFN Playoff Predictor, the Broncos have a 68.2% chance to make the playoffs — and a 66% chance they do so as a Wild Card team.
The Dolphins’ chances, meanwhile, are far lower but continue to tick up. Their three-game winning streak has improved their likelihood of reaching the postseason from 9.4% to 31.9%.
There are scenarios in which Denver and Miami both get in, but none of them are at all likely.
How Dolphins Can Overtake Broncos
So if it’s No. 7 seed or bust for the Dolphins, how can they get there?
First, let’s look at their tiebreaker situation with the Broncos.
Since Denver and Miami won’t play each other in the 2024 regular season, there will be no head-to-head. So if the Dolphins are able to make up the game they’re back of the Broncos in the loss column, and the two teams finish in a head-to-head tie at either 11-6, 10-7, or even 9-8, the Dolphins would be the No. 7 seed, and the Broncos would be spectators.
This is due to the fact that the Broncos have more conference games left on their schedule. Miami is currently 4-4 in the AFC; Denver is 3-4.
So if the Dolphins win out against the Green Bay Packers, New York Jets (twice), Houston Texans, San Francisco 49ers, and Cleveland Browns, the Broncos would also need to win out, or the Dolphins would get in at 11-6.
Working in the Dolphins’ favor? Denver’s final six opponents (.527) have a higher combined winning percentage than Miami’s (.433).
The Broncos finish out their season with games against the Browns, Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals, and Kansas City Chiefs.
The odds of either team winning the rest of its games, of course, are pretty slim. That would mean the Dolphins would have finished the season on a nine-game winning streak and the Broncos would have closed their regular season with seven straight wins.
The more realistic way Miami gets in is at 10-7. And again, the Dolphins are in good shape in this scenario, and could even have their loss come against an AFC team and still be OK.
Why? Because if the Broncos and Dolphins tie at 10-7, Miami would finish the year with no more than five conference losses and, Denver would finish with six.
What does the math look like at 9-8?
For the Broncos to finish with eight losses, it would mean they go 5-7 in the AFC. The Dolphins would be no worse than 6-6 in the conference with a 9-8 finish. Advantage Miami, again.
Of course, 9-8 would also open the door to teams like the Colts and Bengals — who both have seven losses — to get back in the conversation.
And if it’s a multi-way tie for the 7 seed, the tiebreakers get a lot hairier for Miami. For example, the Colts would have no more than five conference losses in a 9-8 situation.
That’s why Indianapolis actually has a better chance of reaching the postseason (34.4%) than Miami, even though the Colts have already suffered their seventh loss.
Long story short? The Dolphins probably can’t afford any more than one loss the rest of the way — and even that is far from a sure bet.