The Los Angeles Chargers are back on the map. After splitting their first four games, the Chargers won five of their next six matchups while surging up the AFC standings. Head coach Jim Harbaugh has his defense playing like one of the NFL‘s best, and Justin Herbert is back to playing like one of the league’s premier quarterbacks.
But what are the chances of the Chargers making the playoffs after their loss in Week 12 to the Ravens? Let’s look at all the scenarios in play.
Can the Chargers Make the Playoffs?
Heading into Week 13, the Los Angeles Chargers are 7-4 and now have a 79.4% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a 1.8% chance for the 1 seed, a 1.5% chance for the second seed, a 0.8% chance for the third seed, a <0.1% chance for the fourth seed, a 26.7% chance for the fifth seed, a 28.9% chance for the sixth seed, and a 19.7% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Chargers Win the AFC West?
Here’s what the AFC West race looks like after all the action in Week 12:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have a 93.5% chance to win the AFC West.
- The Denver Broncos have a 2.4% chance to win the AFC West.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have a 4.1% chance to win the AFC West.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have a <0.1% chance to win the AFC West.
Current AFC West Standings
- Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)
- Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
- Denver Broncos (7-5)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-9)
AFC Playoff Race | Week 17
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (12-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
4. Houston Texans (9-7)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)
7. Denver Broncos (9-6)
In The Hunt
8. Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
9. Miami Dolphins (7-8)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
11. New York Jets (4-11)
12. Cleveland Browns (3-12)
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-12)
15. Las Vegas Raiders (3-12)
16. New England Patriots (3-12)
Chargers’ Super Bowl Chances in Week 12
Can Los Angeles win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that the Chargers have a <0.1% chance to win it all.
Chargers’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 13: at Atlanta Falcons
- Week 14: at Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 15: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Week 16: vs. Denver Broncos
- Week 17: at New England Patriots
- Week 18: at Las Vegas Raiders
What PFN Predicted for the Chargers vs. Ravens Matchup
From the PFN staff:
Monday Night Football brings The Harbaugh Bowl, the third iteration of a football family clash between head coach brothers John and Jim.
The only other times the Harbaughs have faced each other as NFL head coaches was in Super Bowl XLVII when John’s Ravens edged out Jim’s 49ers for a 34-31 victory, as well as a 2011 regular-season contest. While this week’s game doesn’t have quite as much on the line as a Super Bowl, Baltimore and Los Angeles are both trying to solidify their spots in the AFC playoff race.
Lamar Jackson is still in the midst of an outstanding campaign, even if Week 11 was a step back. He’s earned a perfect 100.0 grade in PFN’s QB+ system this season, the No. 1 mark for all quarterbacks dating back to 2019. The only other QBs to earn an A+ grade since 2019 were Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes in 2020 (Rodgers won MVP).
However, the Los Angeles Chargers — like the Steelers in Week 11 — represent another stiff defensive test. The Bolts have allowed just 14.5 points per game this season, No. 1 in the league. In Week 11, the Bengals became the first team to score more than 20 points against the Chargers all year.
Meanwhile, Justin Herbert is playing like a man possessed. The Jim Harbaugh magic has worked, and Herbert seems like an altogether different quarterback who’s more willing to rip throws than ever before. His average depth of target is up to a career-high 8.6 yards.
That’s a problem for a Baltimore secondary that cannot stop the pass. It’s not surprising that the Ravens allow the most passing yards per game since they’re usually winning. However, Baltimore also ranks second-worst in explosive pass rate and seventh-worst in pass-defense efficiency.
PFN Prediction: Chargers 28, Ravens 27