The Los Angeles Chargers continue to show out defensively while improving offensively. Justin Herbert ranks 14th in EPA (expected points added) per play, and the Chargers have scored 26+ points in each of their games during this current four-game winning streak.
At 7-3 and with matchups still against both the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs, the Chargers aren’t completely out of the picture for a home playoff game.
The Ravens are coming off one of their worst offensive performances against a tough defense and divisional foe in the Pittsburgh Steelers. Luckily, they still employ Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Ravens -2.5 - Moneyline
Ravens (-142); Chargers (+120) - Over/Under
50.5 total points - Game Time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
SoFi Stadium
Ravens vs. Chargers Preview and Prediction
Baltimore still has the No. 1 offense in terms of EPA per game by a country mile. Jackson and Henry are a monster duo that can wreak havoc at any time, as evidenced by their league-leading averages of five plays of 20+ yards per game and 15.64 plays of 10+ per game.
The Steelers, Las Vegas Raiders, and Chiefs are the only three defenses to hold the Ravens’ offense to a league average or worse performance in EPA, per TruMedia. The Chiefs and Steelers did so by limiting big plays. Their 10- and 20-yard gain numbers were around league average against these defenses despite the ground game averaging over five yards per carry against all three.
Both the Raiders and Steelers defenses benefited from turnovers and special-teams mistakes, which often happen in high-leverage situations, which explains why they rank 29th in special teams EPA.
Turnovers, on the other hand, are not characteristic of Baltimore’s offense, having committed the fourth-least amount per game this season.
The final way to stop the Ravens’ offense is to eliminate Henry. Baltimore has the No. 1 pass funnel defense in the NFL, which is a testament to their stout run defense and their scheme allowing others to pass. If a team can score quickly on the defense and force the Ravens to play catch-up, they are effectively eliminating Henry from the offense without having to actually stop him.
Out of 50 running backs with more than 10 targets, Henry ranks 49th in snap percentage with a route run. In the season opener, the Chiefs were able to maintain control of the game, which limited Henry’s usage. Using win probability to calculate game script, the Ravens spent none of their plays with a positive game script (70% + win probability) against Kansas City.
This season, the Chargers’ defense has been top-notch. They rank fourth in defensive EPA per play, including second in defensive rush EPA.
What concerns me is that they are average at stopping explosives, which could be dangerous against Jackson and Henry. They also rank 12th in defensive turnover EPA, showing that they are not a top team at forcing opponent mistakes.
Los Angeles’ defense is predicated on disguising coverages, where they rank seventh in my least predictable defenses metric using Shannon Entropy. Jesse Minter has also done a great job of playing to his players’ strengths running zone coverage on 80.1% of plays (third-most in the NFL).
In man coverage, the Chargers rank 22nd in defensive EPA and seventh in zone coverage. Unfortunately, the Ravens are also much better against zone than man.
The defense will definitely receive help from Herbert and the offense, though. LA’s offense does a splendid job of not turning the ball over and extending drives.
The Chargers’ offense ranks first in the least amount of EPA lost due to turnovers and also ranks 13th in time of possession margin. They’ve also spent an absurd 2.28% of their plays in a negative game script situation (win probability lower than 30%). This is first in the NFL by over 3%!
Overall, this game will come down to whether or not the Chargers can take a lead early and force the Ravens into passing situations where Henry can’t wreck the game. Even then, Jackson is a monster and could flip the switch at any moment. I like the Ravens in this one.
My pick: Ravens (-142)