The best division race this season is in the NFC West. The Arizona Cardinals have led the division for much of the campaign but saw their grip on first place slip away after a loss to the Seattle Seahawks.
The San Francisco 49ers were undermanned and totally powerless in Green Bay, Wisc., sending the defending NFC champs into crisis mode. The Los Angeles Rams joined the 49ers at 5-6 after losing to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Below we take a look at how the race is shaping up and provide projections to win the division via PFN’s Playoff Predictor.
1) Seattle Seahawks: 6-5
Your newest first-place NFC West team is the one that was in last place just one week ago. That’s how tight this division race is and underscores the importance of interdivision games, as the Seahawks earned one of the most important wins on Sunday by downing the Cardinals.
COBY BRYANT PICK-6 IN SEATTLE!
📺: #AZvsSEA on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/xVFRwEbk70— NFL (@NFL) November 24, 2024
Seattle struggled on offense, but Mike Macdonald’s defensive personnel changes (including moving on from both starting inside linebackers) have paid off handsomely the last two weeks. After allowing an average of 29.7 PPG from Weeks 4-9 (fourth-worst in the NFL over that span), the Seahawks have allowed a total of 23 points in two games since returning from the bye.
The Seahawks are up to a 28.6% chance to win the West after sitting in single digits for the last several weeks. They’ll see the Cardinals again in two weeks for another crucial matchup, this time in Glendale, Ariz.
2) Arizona Cardinals: 6-5
The Cardinals were prohibitive favorites to win the division entering the week but are technically second in the division now after losing in Week 12 in Seattle. Kyler Murray and the offense struggled, scoring a season-low six points and failing to reach the end zone for the first time this year.
Arizona does still have an advantage over the rest of the division due to its last-place schedule, a reward for its 4-13 record in 2023. The Cardinals have the 10th-easiest remaining strength of schedule.
After Sunday’s loss, the Cardinals are still the projected division favorites with a 53.3% chance to win the NFC West. Still, they entered the game with a 73.4% chance to win the division, so this was one of the more damaging losses any team suffered in Week 12.
3) Los Angeles Rams: 5-6
Injuries appeared poised to submarine Los Angeles amid a 1-4 start. However, the Rams bounced back from a disappointing Monday night loss to the Miami Dolphins with a Week 11 win over the New England Patriots to get back to .500.
Yet the Rams were unable to slow down the scorching-hot Eagles in Week 12. Los Angeles was embarrassed at home, as Philadelphia won 37-20 and handed the Rams their sixth loss of the regular season.
Los Angeles has gotten through most of the soft portion of its schedule and has one of the hardest remaining schedules (11th) the rest of the way. Two of its next three games are against the Buffalo Bills and 49ers, a stretch that will make or break L.A.’s playoff fortunes.
The Rams could face some tricky tiebreaker issues with a 3-5 conference record, although they are 2-1 in the division with wins over both the 49ers and Seahawks. Following their loss in Week 12, they have a 9.4% chance to win the division.
4) San Francisco 49ers: 5-6
The 49ers’ season of injury woes hit a nadir in Sunday’s 38-10 loss to the Green Bay Packers. San Francisco was totally overpowered while missing the likes of Brock Purdy, Nick Bosa, and Trent Williams and now teeters on the edge of playoff extinction.
New starting quarterback Brandon Allen was predictably hapless in harsh conditions. The Niners turned the ball over three times while recording season-lows in points (10) and yards (249). The offense averaged -0.44 EPA per play, tied for their third-worst in 138 games under Kyle Shanahan (including playoffs).
X gets INT No. 7!#SFvsGB pic.twitter.com/5j2XKwEZ83
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 24, 2024
Without Bosa, the defense allowed Josh Jacobs to score three times on the ground. The overall results weren’t terrible, as the Packers averaged fewer than five yards per play, but the unit is drawing dead given how little firepower the offense has in its current state.
San Francisco has a difficult path ahead with the fifth-hardest remaining schedule. Its 1-3 division record and 3-5 conference record won’t do any favors with tiebreakers either.
They now have the lowest chance to win the division at 8.8% due to their remaining strength of schedule and generally diminished performance. They’ll have another difficult trip to Buffalo, N.Y., coming up next week.