As we head into the final weeks of November, the weather is starting to wreak havoc on NFL games. To this point in the season, we have largely emerged unscathed, but Thursday saw our first snow game of the year, with more likely in the coming weeks. With wind, rain, and low temperatures forecasted this week, fantasy football managers have some tough choices to make.
Let’s examine the NFL weather forecast for all seven outdoor games on Sunday and determine whether fantasy managers should downgrade any of their options this week.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of the Week 12 NFL Weather?
The National Weather Service‘s weather forecasts for the games are up to date as of 5 a.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated. All kickoff times are ET.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 10-16 mph northwesterly with gusts up to 35 mph
The worst weather of the early slate looks set to be in MetLife Stadium, where we could see winds up to 35 mph at times throughout the game. Fortunately, that will not be accompanied by rain or this would become a must-avoid contest for fantasy managers. As it is, we are already looking at an uncertain game, depending on how much impact the gusts have and how regularly they sweep through the stadium.
If the majority of the wind is at sustained speeds of 10-16 mph, the impact will be relatively minimal, with an average reduction of <10% in fantasy output. However, once we go over the 25 mph region, the drop-off tends to become more severe, with decreases anywhere from 15% upward. The run game will still be serviceable, but the passing games could take a big hit.
The weather uncertainty largely impacts the Buccaneers’ passing and kicking games. With Tommy DeVito under center for New York, you were likely not trusting any of their passing-game options in this one anyway. Mike Evans and Cade Otton get downgraded here, as does Baker Mayfield. However, Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, Tyrone Tracy Jr., and even Sean Tucker see a slight uptick in value in these conditions.
In terms of the kicking game, if you can, this is a spot to avoid altogether this week.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 40s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 10-12 mph southeasterly with gusts up to 16 mph
The game in Soldier Field is certainly one to watch for weather implications. The temperatures alone cause around a 5% drop in fantasy production on average, while winds 10 mph or above can cause that to drop around another 5%. Comparing this game to one being played in a dome, you can expect around a 10-15% decline in fantasy production relatively.
In terms of what fantasy managers should do, the kicking games of both these teams are ones to consider avoiding this week. Additionally, with uncertainty already over the Bears’ passing offense, avoiding anyone in this passing game might make sense. For the Minnesota Vikings, you are not touching Justin Jefferson, while T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison are more boom-bust options against this defense in these conditions.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Carolina Panthers Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 60s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 5-6 mph southwesterly
We have pretty much ideal weather conditions for fantasy output in Carolina. At these temperatures, we do not see any major fantasy impact from the weather unless there is rain or sustained wind speeds over 20 mph. Every fantasy option you would normally consider remains in play here.
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid 70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 6 mph easterly
We have pretty much ideal weather conditions for fantasy output in Miami. At these temperatures, we do not see any major fantasy impact from the weather unless there is rain or sustained wind speeds over 20 mph. Every fantasy option you would normally consider remains in play here.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 10 mph westerly
The game in Washington has a forecasted temperature close to the point where we see an impact on fantasy output. The wind speed being forecasted for around 10 mph means we can expect around a 5% decrease in fantasy output compared to lower wind speeds at these temperatures and between 5-10% on a game played in a dome.
There is realistically not much worry about someone like CeeDee Lamb or Terry McLaurin, but more fringe passing options could be options to sit if they are a 50-50 call. Kicking games are really tough because Brandon Aubrey is a stud, but these conditions have historically seen a reasonable dip over 40 yards. You could still start kickers from both teams, but there is just a little bit of pause.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers Weather
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 40s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff increasing throughout the game
- Wind: 5-9 mph easterly
Earlier in the week, we saw snow in Lambeau Field, but it looks like we should avoid that in this game. However, rain is expected to fall as the game goes on, with the worst conditions expected to hit in the second half. The current forecast is for cold weather, but not quite cold enough to get snow, which will be a huge relief to players and fantasy managers alike.
Plan on a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain north-central tonight, with rain elsewhere. A few inches of snow is expected over Vilas County where a Winter Weather Advisory goes into effect at 10 pm tonight. #wiwx pic.twitter.com/CEJCMzBRh1
— NWS Green Bay (@NWSGreenBay) November 24, 2024
The cold weather combined with these wind speeds results in an average 5% dip in fantasy production compared to a game in a warmer climate. The rain would be the biggest concern, though, as the combination of wet weather and cooler temperatures has caused around a 25% decrease in fantasy output on average when compared to clear conditions.
The run game should be relatively unharmed, so Christian McCaffrey and Josh Jacobs should be fine. All of the receivers get a downgrade in this game, which is big for the San Francisco 49ers. Brandon Allen starting already causes a downgrade compared to Brock Purdy. Jordan Love and Allen should both be approached with caution in these conditions this week.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks Weather
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid 40s
- Showers: 60% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 5-8 mph southeasterly
If your fantasy hopes rested on the passing games of the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks, this weather forecast is bad news for you. Games played in the rain at these temperatures tend to result in around a 25% decrease in fantasy output on average. That is mostly felt in the passing game, with James Conner and Kenneth Walker III unlikely to be heavily impacted outside of ball security concerns.
The weather downgrades all the pass catchers for both teams, including Geno Smith. Kyler Murray does not get a downgrade, as he should be able to generate fantasy output with his legs. Both kicking games also get a downgrade, and you may want to look elsewhere for kicking options if you can.
Games Played in Stadiums With a Retractable Roof
- Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders | Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
- Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams | Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
- Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers | Monday, 8:15 p.m.