The Los Angeles Rams are 5-5 this season, a game back in the NFC West, and two games back of the final Wild Card spot in the NFC playoffs. After the bye week, they are 4-1, with their sole loss coming to the Miami Dolphins. A Sunday night matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles will be pivotal for staying within striking distance in a tight race, especially with the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals playing each other this week.
The Philadelphia Eagles have a head-to-head win over the Washington Commanders, and the focus now turns to the race for the No. 1 overall seed where they are one game behind the Detroit Lions.
With all NFC West opponents to come, the Eagles hold a lot of power in determining how things shake out in the NFC playoff picture.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Eagles -3 - Moneyline
Eagles (-155); Rams (+130) - Over/Under
49 total points - Game Time
8:20 p.m. ET - Location
SoFi Stadium
Eagles vs. Rams Preview and Prediction
The key to this game will be whether or not the Rams’ defense can keep the Eagles’ run game in check to allow Sean McVay another shot at a Vic Fangio defense. According to Tru Media, McVay has called plays against Fangio in four games throughout their careers. He averages -2.84 EPA (expected points added) per game in those games and 1.55 EPA per game against everyone else.
For context, the non-Fangio games would rank 13th in the 2024 season; the Fangio games would rank 20th. What makes the Fangio defense difficult for McVay to figure out? Aggression and chaos. Fortunately for McVay, the Eagles’ defense ranks 15th in pressure generated, 12th in quick pressure generated, and 31st in blitz rate.
Post-bye week, the Rams’ offense is 17th in EPA and 15th in explosive passing (passes of 10 and 20 or more yards per game), but they are dead-last in explosive rushing. They will need to lean on Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp against the young Eagles secondary to win this game.
As for the Eagles’ defense, they quietly field the sixth-ranked defensive EPA in the league in large part due to the performance of the secondary. PFF has Cooper DeJean ranked ninth in coverage grade and Quinyon Mitchell ranked 19th out of 112 corners in the NFL. This game will be the biggest test yet for these young studs.
Offensively, the Eagles rank first in rush EPA, second in explosive rushing, and sixth in rushing success rate. They have been able to run the ball really well with a combination of Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley. While Hurts continues to provide the gravity that makes this run game go, Barkley has been able to punish the defenses that don’t respect him.
The Eagles rank second in rush EPA against a stacked box, with Barkley ranking fourth in rushing yards per attempt against stacked boxes. Barkley also has the most runs of 10 or more yards (26) and the second-most runs of 20 or more yards (10) this season. His only equals have been Derrick Henry and Ja’Marr Chase this season, and that is reflected in the OPOY odds where DraftKings has him as the favorite at +105.
The Rams rank 22nd in defensive rush EPA and 20th in rushing success rate allowed (39.5% of rushes end successfully — successful runs (or passes) are ones that result in a positive expected points added).
Most importantly, they rank eighth in explosive rushing plays allowed, which will be huge if they want to stop this Eagles offense. One thing the Eagles have struggled with is pressure. They rank 24th in EPA under pressure and face a defense that ranks fourth in pressure rate and sixth in quick pressure rate.
Another important caveat is that the Eagles’ offense is fine against the blitz, ranking seventh in EPA. The Rams have not needed to blitz to get pressure, ranking 18th in blitz rate. The Eagles’ offensive line ranks fifth in quick pressures allowed but are last in overall pressures allowed because Hurts holds on to the ball longer than everyone but Lamar Jackson.
The Rams’ defense ranks 19th in average time to throw, meaning teams get the ball out in a league-average time when facing this defense. The Eagles are No. 1 in scramble EPA this season, which the Rams rank 15th in stopping. The four worst performances on defense for the Rams came against the Vikings, Lions, Cardinals, and 49ers. In three of those games, the opposing quarterback was above average in scrambling.
I think the combination of a dominant Eagles run game on top of the fact that Hurts is at his best when scrambling will make it difficult for the Rams to stop this offense. While the Eagles’ secondary has a tough matchup with Nakua and Kupp in town, I believe the Eagles’ offense will do just enough to secure the victory.
My pick: Eagles (-155); Rams +3.5 (-143)