Week 12 is here, which means the playoffs are right around the corner. As we all know, there will be plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your fantasy football lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant wide receiver in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 12 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Adam Thielen | CAR (vs. KC)
Dave Canales fully expects Adam Thielen (hamstring) to be active this week for the first time since September. That might help facilitate Bryce Young’s growth down the stretch of 2024 but is unlikely to matter in a fantasy sense.
Thielen had the magical run early last season, but he’s managed just 54 catches for 542 yards and a single score over his past 13 games. The Panthers are pretty clearly looking well beyond 2024, and they’ve invested in a handful of younger options who project to be a part of that big picture.
If you’ve held Thielen in your IR slot, you can now cut ties.
A.J. Brown | PHI (at LAR)
A.J. Brown hasn’t been quite the star you were hoping for when you drafted him this summer, that’s just a fact. He doesn’t have more than six catches in a game this season and has failed to score in four straight in addition to missing time early in the season.
Take a deep breath and understand that the advanced metrics are working in your favor as we come down the stretch.
Brown’s on-field target share is spot on with expectations (26.1% this season; career rate: 25.9%), and his efficiency is on a career pace in every measure (fantasy points per target, yards per route, and EPA per opportunity).
The overall pass volume in Philadelphia has been the problem, and that may not correct itself; if it does, Brown has the potential to be the top-scoring player at the position the rest of the way.
The Eagles face four viable quarterbacks over the next five weeks (Matthew Stafford, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, and Jayden Daniels — this time not on a goofy short week), and that could result in this team getting pushed at a level we haven’t seen lately.
Maybe I’m overthinking this, but Saquon Barkley is being used as a bellcow and has played in the postseason one time in his career. Could the Eagles opt to manage his reps down the stretch of the regular season, thus opening up more opportunities for Brown and this passing game?
Even if I’m wrong in my effort to play 3D chess, Brown is a locked-in WR1. If I’m right, you’re winning your league because you have this monster in your lineup every week.
Alec Pierce | IND (vs. DET)
That’s now consecutive games from Alec Pierce with at least 70 receiving yards, the first time he’s done that since October 2022. Pierce’s skill set doesn’t translate as a stable one week over week, but if Indianapolis is going to stay competitive in this spot, it’s because Anthony Richardson is picking on a Lions secondary that allows the third-most WR receptions of 15+ yards per game (4.6).
Josh Downs, Michael Pittman Jr., and Adonai Mitchell could be the recipients of those looks. As could the father of three who is sitting in the fifth row.
Or it could be Pierce again. He’s among the five most matchup-dependent plays in the sport — not his matchup, yours.
If your matchup is expected to come down to the wire, I’d look elsewhere. But not all weeks are like that. If you’re in chase mode (be it record, total points for a tiebreaker, etc.), this is exactly the type of dice you should be rolling.
I have Pierce ranked as my third Colts receiver and prefer Noah Brown and Xavier Worthy if we are looking at big-play threats. Still, there’s no denying that there is an upside in Pierce’s profile that could land him as a WR2 this weekend.
Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (at IND)
Since Week 3, 26 players have seen more targets than Amon-Ra St. Brown. But only five have more receptions, and Ja’Marr Chase is the only player with touchdown catches over that stretch.
During this scoring streak (eight straight games, a franchise record), St. Brown has three times as many TDs (nine) as targets that have hit the ground (three, 51 catches on 54 targets).
I’m running out of ways to praise this man, and if Dan Campbell is going to leave him on the field to help extend a 36-point lead, even game scripts can’t stop him. St. Brown has the potential to carry your fantasy team to a title this season and is going to cost you a pick in the first half of Round 1 in August.
Brandin Cooks | DAL (at WAS)
Brandin Cooks (knee) hasn’t played since September, and while news out of Dallas seems to be cautiously optimistic on the status of the veteran receiver, fantasy managers need not worry.
In 2023, Cooks posted the worst yards per route run rate of his career, and nothing in the early going this season — in a Dak Prescott-led offense — suggested that a rebound was imminent. With the Cowboys’ season a lost one and Cooks’ contract done at the end of the season, neither party has enough motivation to pique the interest of fantasy managers in the slightest.
Calvin Ridley | TEN (at HOU)
Calvin Ridley has made some splash plays recently (his 21-yarder last week against the Vikings was proof of having Will Levis’ trust), and that is going to happen for the NFL leader in air yards. However, that is very much a dual-edged sword when operating in an inconsistent offense that lacks a secondary playmaker to attract defensive attention.
The Texans allow the fewest yards per deep pass attempt this season and have greatly reduced their blitz rate over the past two weeks. The only way Houston loses this game is by giving up big plays, making Ridley the focal point in an area of strength. He’s on the Flex radar due to a lack of viable options this week, but I do have Cedric Tillman ranked higher if you are looking for some context.
CeeDee Lamb | DAL (at WAS)
That’s five straight double-digit target games for CeeDee Lamb. While the embarrassing loss to the Texans in a prime-time spot would be labeled as a negative by most, we are open-minded fantasy managers who just want points. For us, I liked what I saw.
Why?
Dallas threw the ball 56 times. They weren’t content to lose by 13 and shorten the game, they opened up their offense and tried. Is that many passes for Cooper Rush a good thing? Of course not, but if we take for granted that one-quarter of them are going to go to WR1, the more bites at the apple, the better!
The game script might look similar this week, and if Dallas wasn’t going to give Trey Lance the keys at any point this week, why would we assume that they do this week? The Commanders are the fourth-best defense at creating pressure without blitzing (37.5%), calling into question each individual Rush dropback. But if we can get close to the volume we got last week, it won’t matter.
You can ding Lamb’s projection and grade a touch. Heck, you could move him down an entire standard deviation on the expectation scale — he’s still going to grade as a starter in all formats.
Christian Watson | GB (vs. SF)
Christian Watson’s 150 yards, including one of the biggest plays of the win, were a highlight of Week 11. But did you make the wrong decision in benching him?
I’d argue no. Watson’s role earned him just four targets and 6.5 expected PPR points, barely any variation from his role through the first 10 weeks (3.4 targets and 6.0 expected PPR points). He ran hot against the Bears with catches of 17, 25, 48, and 60 yards, something that will happen with a player like this, but not something any rational person would predict for an isolated week.
The 49ers own the third-lowest blitz rate in the NFL and have a ball-control offense, two things that could prove fatal to Watson’s attempt to sustain last week’s momentum.
On top of all of that, it took a down week from Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft for Watson to get the few opportunities that he did. Seeing Watson’s production sit on your bench hurt you last week, but you can’t fix that now.
Wise fantasy managers continue to play the odds, and they are stacked against Watson offering another top-15 performance this weekend, even with six teams on bye.
Cooper Kupp | LAR (vs. PHI)
Cooper Kupp has scored or caught 7+ passes in all four games since his return from injury, highlighted by a two-score game last week in New England. That performance was buoyed by a 69-yard strike that came as the result of the Patriots bringing an all-out blitz. It’s a play that counts but not one that I expect too many teams to tempt fate with against this offense at full strength.
There’s one minor concern to consider in this specific matchup, but we are splitting hairs.
Weeks 1-9:
- Puka Nacua: 11.3 aDOT
- Cooper Kupp: 6.0 aDOT
Weeks 10-11:
- Nacua: 11.0 aDOT
- Kupp: 10.5 aDOT
It’s a small sample and, in general, Kupp’s lengthening of his target is a net positive, but the Eagles allow the fewest 15+ yard WR receptions per game (2.5), and with Nacua being the more efficient downfield threat (7.6% more yards per route run), that brings in a bit more risk than you might assume in this spot.
I prefer Nacua to Kupp this week, but both are top-15 plays that you’re locking in without a second thought.
Courtland Sutton | DEN (at LV)
Courtland Sutton was limited to just 32 yards (two catches) on five targets when these two teams met back in Week 5, but that feels like ages ago at this point.
Bo Nix’s push for Rookie of the Year consideration has been tied to his willingness to load up his WR1 with opportunities, and it’s paying off. Sutton has four straight games with at least six catches, eight targets, and 70 yards (in those games: 73.7% catch rate).
He’s begun to mix deep bombs (second-most air yards in the league this season) with TD equity (three straight games with an end-zone target), a level of development with his first-year QB that you absolutely love to see.
The Raiders allow the sixth-highest red-zone passer rating, and there’s no place Nix would rather go in scoring situations than Sutton. We entered the season with far greater expectations for CeeDee Lamb, Malik Nabers, and Zay Flowers when compared to Denver’s top receiver — I have them all ranked below Sutton for Week 12.
Darius Slayton | NYG (vs. TB)
A concussion forced Darius Slayton to miss Week 10 prior to the Week 11 bye. The hope is that he will be able to return to action this week (Jalin Hyatt turned in a four-catch, 39-yard performance in his stead), but Slayton is not a name you need to consider for annual or DFS leagues as long as Malik Nabers is healthy.
With the Giants making a change under center, I suppose anything is possible. But until proven otherwise, I’m OK with assuming that this offense is a dumpster fire. If I’m wrong, we can circle back next week and address the staying power of a second receiver in Tommy DeVito’s world.
DeAndre Hopkins | KC (at CAR)
The Chiefs went out of their way to feature DeAndre Hopkins against the Buccaneers in Week 9 (nine targets on 34 routes), but some of the shine has worn off of the veteran WR since (nine targets on 49 routes). Hopkins’ slot role has declined in consecutive weeks, and while I’d like that to reverse course, he’s still the unquestioned WR1 for a team that is labeled a double-digit road favorite this week.
The Panthers own the worst defense at creating pressure without the courtesy of a blitz. You either let Mahomes pick you apart or bring an extra defender and leave a player like Hopkins in advantageous coverage situations. I’m fine with betting on that projected offensive setting and have Nuk ranked as a WR2 in PPR formats.
Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF (at GB)
George Kittle sat out last week, and Brandon Aiyuk is done for the season. In theory, that lines up perfectly for Deebo Samuel Sr.’s versatility to thrive, right?
Wrong.
In the loss to Seattle, Samuel accounted for 13.8% of San Francisco’s receiving yards and lost a yard on his only carry. He doesn’t have more than five grabs in a game since Week 2 and has found paydirt just once after opening the season with a touchdown against the Jets.
The arrow is pretty clearly pointing down, but the proven ability of the 49ers’ offense to be efficient keeps him in lineups. The Packers are allowing touchdowns on 31.4% of red-zone passes, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, and a flaw that Samuel could well expose.
There is no doubt that the return of Christian McCaffrey limits some of the creative touches in Samuel’s profile. But with its backs against the wall, I expect San Francisco to manufacture more than the five touches given their WR1 last week.
That optimism is enough for me to keep Samuel ranked as a top-15 receiver.
Demarcus Robinson | LAR (vs. PHI)
The Rams are back to functioning at a high level (26+ points scored in three of their past four games), and we all know what that means — an ultra-condensed distribution of touches.
In last week’s win over the Patriots, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp saw 70.4% of Matthew Stafford’s targets. Add in the elite scoring ways of Kyren Williams when Los Angeles reaches the red zone, and the path for Demarcus Robinson to fall into fantasy value is close to nonexistent.
Robinson bridged October and November with a pair of multi-score games, and that resulted in him being rostered with confidence. With his teammates back at full strength, Robinson is on the chopping block if you need to create roster space.
DeMario Douglas | NE (at MIA)
DeMario Douglas has earned 21 targets so far in November, but he feels an awful lot like a short version of Patriot Jakobi Meyers. And with a rookie QB, that’s a problem.
Douglas has scored just once in 25 NFL games (93 catches, 139 targets). But while his volume in the short passing game seems safe, 9.4 yards per catch tells me that either Douglas isn’t as good with the ball in his hands as this team thinks or that Drake Maye is struggling to place the ball in optimal RAC spots.
The Patriots carry with them an implied total of under 20 this week (and most weeks), which suppresses my projections for this offense as a whole. Douglas is my clear favorite in New England’s passing game, but I’d rather take my chances on a pair of rookies (Rome Odunze and Jalen Coker) in the Flex range, and I’d play actual Jakobi Meyers (even in a tough spot against the Broncos) ahead of him.
DeVonta Smith| PHI (at LAR)
It’s OK to be frustrated with DeVonta Smith, but it’s not OK to be surprised by him. He fell flat on his birthday against the Commanders last week, but this is who he is as a fantasy asset.
- In 2022, Smith cleared 1,000 yards and scored seven times — he failed to clear 50 yards seven times
- In 2023, Smith cleared 1,000 yards and scored seven times — he failed to clear 50 yards seven times
His fantasy points per target have increased each season of his career while his current aDOT and target share are right in line with where his career marks are. Was the Week 11 disappointment projectable?
Washington entered the game trending up in pressure rate, and Smith’s target share is 9.4 percentage points lower when Jalen Hurts is sped up than when he’s not since 2023. We should be on the plus side of that trend this week against a Rams defense that ranks below league average in both pressure and blitz rate, making Smith a plenty viable option to click into your lineup, even after consecutive air balls.
Diontae Johnson | BAL (at LAC)
Diontae Johnson saw a first-drive target last week, but he only saw one look the rest of the way against the Steelers and still hasn’t found his footing with Baltimore.
The veteran receiver might prove to be a viable option for a Ravens team that has their eyes on postseason success. Yet, asking Johnson to return to fantasy production in the short term is asking a lot.
Johnson has yet to play even 30% of the snaps since the trade, and in a run-centric offense like this, that role isn’t even remotely close to roster-worthy.
DJ Moore | CHI (vs. MIN)
Week 11 was DJ Moore’s fourth top-30 finish of the season, but it required perfection from an imperfect quarterback. Against the Packers, Caleb Williams was 7-of-7 when throwing to Moore and 66.7% to everyone else.
I want to be encouraged by what we saw last week, but I’m more concerned about the larger profile and its trajectory:
- Weeks 1-5: 21.9% on-field target share, 9.4 aDOT
- Weeks 6-11: 16% on-field target share, 7.5 aDOT
When looking at a set of data like that, you expect target share and aDOT to be inversely correlated. That, however, isn’t the case here, as Moore’s target upside is trending down, and his ability to earn those looks is moving in the wrong direction.
Case in point? Moore had a 100% catch rate and led the team in receptions last week. Yet, he was outscored by Marquez Valdes-Scantling for the week — who ranked fifth for the Saints last week in receptions.
That’s an extreme example, but the point remains. Moore had a total of six air yards last week, and that’s a tough way to make a living.
In Chicago, I prefer Rome Odunze to Moore, and for this week, I like the specific matchups of Quentin Johnston and Jalen Coker over him as well.
DK Metcalf | SEA (vs. ARI)
The Seahawks have completely punted on DK Metcalf playing in the slot (3.8% of his routes last week), and I think that’s a good thing. Yes, those are the layup targets, but I’m OK with skirting some floor for an increase in ceiling, which is what this move by Seattle reflects.
Metcalf is currently pacing for a career-high in expected PPR points per game (14.8), and with him seeing a 29% target share in his return to action, there are clearly no limitations.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s emergence has some people dragging down their projections for Metcalf, and from a rest-of-season standpoint, I have no issue with that. However, I’m not adjusting for this matchup.
Through 11 weeks this season, the Cardinals allow the ninth-highest completion percentage when opponents throw to the perimeter and are the 11th-best (lowest) in that regard against the slot.
I have no issue in labeling this WR duo as a 1a and 1b situation — not this week, not in this spot.
Dontayvion Wicks | GB (vs. SF)
Dontayvion Wicks saw Green Bay’s first target of Week 11 — and that was it for the entire game. Wicks only ran five more routes after that play and is still searching for his first November reception.
Why hold? Why not listen to what this team is telling us?
Jordan Love has proven to be a more volatile QB than we believed he would be this season, and that has left Wicks out in the cold. He’s still a 6’1”, second-year receiver with plenty of per-reception upside (four scores on 16 catches this season), but there’s no reason to hold onto Wicks as your season comes down to the wire.
There is no change coming in Green Bay, which leaves Wicks without a clear path to mattering. I’d rather roll the dice on any “muddy” situation. I’d rather roster Adonai Mitchell, Mike Williams, or any of the Patriots’ dart throws.
At this point in the season, I’m OK with targeting uncertainty. In fact, I want it, plus I’m fairly certain that Wicks isn’t a part of the immediate plan in Green Bay.
Jakobi Meyers | LV (vs. DEN)
Things are going sideways in Vegas, and Jakobi Meyers’ high-end volume is becoming less appealing by the week. This team hasn’t cleared 20 points in six of their past seven games, and if you want the granular breakdown, Meyers posted a ninth-percentile yards per route run last week.
That’s just not going to cut it.
Not all weeks are going to be that bad, but the fact that such a performance is within the range of outcomes is concerning. Meyers’ 8.7 targets per game over his last six still hold value, just not in the elevated floor way that we were hoping following the Davante Adams trade.
Meyers is a fringe top-30 receiver for me this week. He gave PPR managers 13.2 points in the Week 5 meeting with the Broncos, earning a 25% target share in a game that saw both Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O’Connell throw north of 15 passes.
Jalen Coker | CAR (vs. KC)
If you’re looking for a gross DFS option, Jalen Coker is your Soppe Special of Week 12 (he’s penciled into a lineup that is built around a Kyler Murray-Trey McBride-DK Metcalf game stack).
It’s easy to forget that we saw Coker earn a season-high eight targets the last time we saw him (against the Giants in Germany) and even easier to overlook anyone on a double-digit home underdog. But that’s what separates us from the field, something that DFS managers are going to need to do more than normal with six teams on a bye and plenty of firepower in the prime-time slots.
For the season, Coker has run 71.8% of his routes from the slot, something I like for two reasons. The first is simple: in a low-octane offense with an unproven signal-caller, I’m happy to roster the “easy button” option. The second is this matchup — the Chiefs rank in the bottom quarter of the league in completion percentage allowed to the slot and top-quarter on perimeter passes.
I know I’m not alone in thinking this game is one-sided, and we know that Carolina’s objective is to develop their young talent. This looks like a good chance to do just that for the interesting prospect out of Holy Cross.
Jalen McMillan | TB (at NYG)
Jalen McMillan is battling a hamstring injury that labeled him as a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option in Week 10 before the bye (active, zero snaps), a situation that deserves monitoring in deeper formats.
On the surface, his 15 targets over his past two healthy games look good, but those were high-volume games for the offense as a whole. For the season, McMillan’s 13.1% on-field target share this season (0.65 yards per route) is simply not going to cut it.
That said, the Giants are the worst defense in the league in terms of opponent deep pass completion percentage, a vulnerability that an athletic profile like McMillan’s with a 14.2-yard aDOT can exploit. I don’t think we are looking at more than a handful of targets, but there’s a reasonable path to double-digit PPR points; that risk/reward math works out for managers in large leagues or with depth issues.
Jalen Tolbert | DAL (at WAS)
Jonathan Mingo made his debut in Week 11, resulting in a season-low 66.7% snap share for Jalen Tolbert. That more than doubled the field time of his primary WR2 competition, but in an offense that is as limited as Dallas’, any dip in his role is going to be difficult to overcome.
For the season, Tolbert has more routes run than receiving yards and has posted under 8.5 expected PPR points in all but three games. I was high on Tolbert entering this season as a fade on Brandin Cooks — the right idea but no real fruit to show from it.
I’m not breaking news here, but Dallas is an offense I want no piece of. I’m happy to move on from Tolbert in all formats. Give me a Mike Williams or JuJu Smith-Schuster in terms of secondary receivers that have yet to show out as rest-of-season fliers over any non-CeeDee Lamb WR the rest of the way.
Jameson Williams | DET (at IND)
I don’t want to cost myself a job, but shouldn’t a fantasy site just hire Jared Goff and ask him which Lions are going to be featured?
Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta have had their ups and downs this season, not because they aren’t talented but because Detroit scores too fast in other avenues.
Case in point: You likely weren’t feeling great about playing Williams at halftime last week. He hadn’t done anything and the Lions were up 22 points. As a Williams manager, I know I was already assuming a dud week at intermission and seeing if I could tweak my lineups for the late games to make up for the sub-par performance.
Four plays into the second half, Jamo added 14.9 PPR points to his afternoon, and all was right in the world. In eight games this season, Williams has cleared 75 receiving yards five times, but he also has a pair of single-digit performances.
If we are assuming that LaPorta is back, there is a floor to strongly consider, but with the Colts creating pressure when not blitzing at the fourth-lowest rate this season, Goff should have plenty of time to pick apart this secondary down the field.
You know the risk that comes with play — it’s something I’m willing to overlook in a week where the expectation is for Detroit to score 29 points.
Jauan Jennings| SF (at GB)
Is Jauan Jennings the WR1 in San Francisco?
I’m not going that far just yet, but he certainly appears closer to their WR1 than their WR3. We are looking at the first player to see 10+ targets from Brock Purdy in consecutive games, a level of volume that might not sustain with George Kittle aiming to return, though a minor dip in usage wouldn’t greatly impact my confidence in labeling him as a fantasy starter.
Jaire Alexander (knee) missed the second half last week against the Bears; if he is operating at anything less than full strength, this efficient offense could take advantage of a Green Bay defense that can be overly aggressive at times.
Jennings is sitting on the WR20 line for me this week, ranking in the same tier as other talented receivers who rank second on their team in terms of target projection (namely Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DeVonta Smith).
Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA (vs. ARI)
Since 2019, four receivers under the age of 23 have strung together consecutive games with at least seven catches and 110 receiving yards: Ja’Marr Chase (twice), Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, and Jaxon Smith-Njiigba (current).
JSN certainly looks the part, and his upward-trending on-field target share didn’t crater with DK Metcalf back in the mix.
- Week 5: 15.6% on-field target share
- Week 6: 17.6%
- Week 7: 19.4%
- Week 8: 24.1%
- Week 9: 31%
- Week 11: 31.4%
His involvement in the red zone is what suffers the most when Metcalf is active, but if Seattle can approach their implied total in this spot (24 points), Smith-Njigba should be able to produce viable WR2 numbers. It is worth noting that Arizona is a little more vulnerable out wide than in tight, thus making Metcalf my preferred DFS play at price, though I still think you’re playing JSN with confidence.
Jayden Reed | GB (vs. SF)
Thank goodness for that first-drive touchdown last week against the Bears, because Jayden Reed was held to one catch (eight yards) the rest of the afternoon.
I’ve labeled Reed as NFC Zay Flowers, both of whom are promising young receivers providing fantasy managers with plenty of ups and downs this season. I still believe that he’s Green Bay’s alpha receiver, but Reed hasn’t shown it lately (under 30 receiving yards in three of his past five). Is this a sneaky explosion spot?
49ers defensive splits, 2024:
- Yards per pass vs. slot: 8.5 (26th)
- Yards per pass vs. perimeter: 6.0 (fewest)
We know the upside that comes with this profile, and Reed has accessed it when he is involved from the slot. In the four games this season in which he’s earned at least five slot targets, Reed has averaged 21.9 PPR points per game (otherwise: 9.2).
I’m doubling down on my optimism from last week and again have Reed ranked as a top-20 receiver.
Jaylen Waddle | MIA (vs. NE)
Jaylen Waddle displayed a nice connection with Tua Tagovailoa for a moment last week, a glimmer of hope. While his QB was busy pulling off a Houdini act to get free from the pass rush, Waddle uncovered and opened himself up for a 24-yard gain.
That’s what we thought we’d get more of when we drafted Waddle this summer, but it was just a flash in the pan in Week 11 — that was half of his catch total for the game.
Helping the team doesn’t always show up in the fantasy box score (Waddle forced a defensive pass interference with under four minutes left to convert a third down with the game on the line).
Waddle isn’t close to the asset we signed up for this summer, but I also think he’s better than what we’ve seen in Tagovailoa’s four games back (33.8 receiving yards per game). I have him hovering around WR30 this week — in the Jerry Jeudy and Wan’Dale Robinson tier. The Patriots allow 33.3% of red-zone passes to result in touchdowns, the fourth-highest rate in the league, giving me increased optimism that Waddle can reward those who elect to Flex him this weekend.
Jonathan Mingo | DAL (at WAS)
Jonathan Mingo made his Cowboys debut on Monday night against the Texans (30.4% snap share) and air-balled on four targets. Cooper Rush has completed just 57.3% of his passes this season with two of his 117 attempts resulting in scores. Safe to say, I’m not in a hurry to use roster space to add a fringe piece.
I still think that Jalen Tolbert is ahead of Mingo in the WR pecking order in Dallas and the team made it clear that they have a few tight ends they want to get involved should Jake Ferguson miss time.
Given what the Cowboys gave up to acquire Mingo at the deadline has me interested in his role — for next season.
Jordan Addison | MIN (at CHI)
Cramps resulted in Jordan Addison departing Minnesota’s Week 11 win early, though the hope is that the second-year receiver will be fine entering this weekend. He was able to get you paid last week courtesy of a 47-yard score in the first quarter — stop me if you’ve heard that before.
For his career, over 44% of Addison’s PPR fantasy points have come on touchdowns. That’s not the most stable of profiles, but in this spot, assuming health, I have no issue if you want to go back to him as a Flex option.
This season, the Bears own the fourth-highest opponent average depth of receiver target this season; defenses are looking to challenge them vertically, and we know Addison is more than capable of doing just that. As long as you acknowledge the risk involved, this is a spot you can justify rolling the dice, be it in DFS or season-long.
Josh Downs | IND (vs. DET)
Josh Downs was able to pay off your loyalty last week, but be careful in assuming that the Anthony Richardson version of this offense puts any receiver in a position to be consistent. Downs produced last week in part because he pulled down a 31-yard pass on the first drive, an open window that Richardson nearly missed. The limitations under center are impossible to ignore and they project to give Downs an issue sooner rather than later:
- Week 8 at Houston Texans: 14.5 expected PPR points
- Week 9 at Minnesota Vikings: 14.5 expected PPR points
- Week 10 vs. Buffalo Bills: 18.8 expected PPR points
- Week 11 at New York Jets: 8.4 expected PPR points
That’s a significant dip, and while the actual box score didn’t reflect the change, proceed with caution against the best defense when it comes to defending red-zone passes (51.4 passer rating). Downs is my WR26 this week, a viable Flex play but not the star that he looked like under Joe Flacco.
Josh Reynolds, DEN (at LV)
Josh Reynolds (finger) was activated from injured reserve last week and practiced, but he was ultimately inactive for Week 11. The surprise Broncos are a better team now than the one Reynolds left injured in Week 5, but Denver has yet to unlock the secondary-pass-catcher role next to Courtland Sutton.
Broncos receiving yardage leaders, 2024:
- Courtland Sutton: 647 receiving yards (14th in the NFL)
- Devaughn Vele: 281 (108th)
- Lil’Jordan Humphrey: 263 (113th)
- Javonte Williams: 250 (120th)
- Josh Reynolds: 183 (160th)
Could Reynolds be the answer to that question? Do the Broncos need to answer this question?
This is a wait-and-see situation in my eyes. I like Reynolds to fill that role, but with Denver yet to go on bye, you’d be adding Reynolds now to potentially cut him ahead of Week 14 without ever having played him.
I’ll be tracking all the needed rates, so check back weekly for an update, but at the moment, I’m leaving Reynolds on waiver wires.
Joshua Palmer | LAC (vs. BAL)
Joshua Palmer has reached double figures in PPR formats just twice this season and has yet to earn more than five targets in a game. In the shootout with the Bengals last week, he wasn’t a part of where this offense wanted to go — 69.7% of Justin Herbert’s targets went to one of three players (Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, or Will Dissly).
There isn’t much immediate competition for WR3 targets in the Chargers’ offense, but this remains a team that wants to work through the ground when possible. With Gus Edwards healthy and Dissly’s role expanding, the opportunity count is drying up quickly.
I trust Herbert enough to hold onto Palmer right now, but he’s not untouchable. This profile is weak at best based on the development of the pieces around him and the direction of this offense philosophically.
JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC (at CAR)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (hamstring) is coming off a “good week” of practice ahead of Week 11 and is tentatively expecting to return to action this week.
We saw one good game from the slot receiver (7-130-0 against the Saints over a month ago) and got excited about what he could be in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense, but those days seem to be behind us.
NDeAndre Hopkins shown comfort, leaving a low-volume role at best for a banged-up receiver who hasn’t produced viable fantasy numbers in 1.5 years.
If you’re holding onto Smith-Schuster as a way to be tied to this Kansas City offense, you have one more week. Maybe he can exploit this matchup and prove worthy of a roster spot, but the slot is the one spot where the Panthers have been above average (ninth-lowest touchdown rate and fourth-fewest yards per completion).
Smith-Schuster is off my Week 12 radar, though I’m open to the idea of him hanging onto the back end of PPR rosters.
Justin Jefferson | MIN (at CHI)
The downward pointing arrow on Sam Darnold is less than ideal, and if you want to drop Justin Jefferson from WR2 to WR8, be my guest — it doesn’t really matter. He hasn’t scored in four straight games (and in five of six after scoring in all four September games), but with full health and eight straight games with at least eight targets, there’s no action that needs to be taken.
Jefferson has a reception of 25+ yards in nine of 10 games and is as good a bet as there is in the NFL to take your breath away with a single play. I’m electing to pay up for star running backs in DFS this week, so that’s how I’m fading Minnesota’s star this weekend.
Keenan Allen | CHI (vs. MIN)
You’re being silly if you are holding out hope on Keenan Allen at this point.
Anything could happen, but we are in the business of using stats and trends to predict the future. In that vein, there’s nothing suggesting that Allen is anything more than a name you know from past production than a legitimate asset.
The veteran receiver hasn’t posted a 23% on-field target share since the season opener, has scored in one game this season, and has yet to hit 50 yards in a game. You’re overthinking it if you still have Allen rostered. What would he have to do to work his way into your starting lineup the rest of the way?
For me, we’ve crossed the threshold — there’s nothing I could see that would make me feel good about him, and that means I’m burning a roster spot by keeping him.
Kendrick Bourne | NE (at MIA)
Kendrick Bourne caught all five of his targets for a team-high 70 yards last week, a production line that featured a touchdown grab on the second drive of the game. Anytime you get a big point total on your bench (or waiver wire) it’s frustrating, but chasing a 13.2% target share in an offense led by an inconsistent rookie QB is playing with fire.
Patriots WR snap shares, Week 11:
- Kayshon Boutte: 95.9%
- DeMario Douglas: 57.5%
- Bourne: 47.9%
- Ja’Lynn Polk: 39.7%
With the Patriots ranking 19th in percentage of snaps with three receivers on the field (58.8%; NFL average: 61.9%), I’m having a hard time envisioning time penciling in Bourne for anything close to consistent value.
That’s not to dismiss him outright, I’m not doing that. Much like the battle for the WR2 role in Green Bay, any of these guys could lead New England in targets in a given week. From a projection standpoint, however, none of them are going to grade out strong enough for me to recommend as a Flex option.
Ladd McConkey | LAC (vs. BAL)
Ladd McConkey is coming off his second 100-yard game of the season, an effort that saw him make clutch plays left and right. In the win over the Bengals, he lined up in the slot a season-high 88.9% of the time, something that I love to see in a macro sense.
In the micro, not so much. The Ravens are much better against the slot (11th in slot passer rating) than the perimeter (23rd). That doesn’t mean that McConkey can’t produce, it’s just worth noting as you look to evaluate his floor case. The ceiling case has been evident — here’s a snapshot as to where he stands at the position in PPR PPG since Week 8.
13. Ladd McConkey: 16.5
14. George Pickens: 16.3
15. Justin Jefferson: 16.3
16. Puka Nacua: 16.1
Do I think he’s swimming in those waters for the remainder of the season? I do not, but with this offense maturing, McConkey is a legitimate threat to lead this rookie receiver class in scoring the rest of the way and is deserving of your trust on a consistent basis.
Malik Nabers | NYG (vs. TB)
This is a lost season for the Giants, and is it at least possible to wonder if they are babying their WR1 for years to come? Malik Nabers’ efficiency and volume have dipped since missing a pair of games (concussion), something that very much has my eye.
- Weeks 1-4: 34.4% on-field target share, 1.76 points per target
- Weeks 7-10: 28.6% on-field target share, 1.15 points per target
I think this matchup could rectify that; if it doesn’t, we might have a major problem heading into the most important part of the fantasy season. The Bucs have allowed north of 22 points to a receiver five times this season and over 12.5 PPR points 14 times in their 10 games.
This matchup helps supplement a floor normally lacking due to New York owning the worst red-zone offense in the league, turning just 39.3% of its trips inside the 20-yard line into six points. You’re starting Nabers every week, but your confidence in doing so very much hangs in the balance this weekend.
Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI (at SEA)
Marvin Harrison Jr. has played in 10 games this season. If you remove one quarter from one game, his current 17-game pace is 50 catches for 628 yards and seven touchdowns (for reference, that’s almost the same as 2023 Brandin Cooks: 54-657-8). The overall success of Arizona’s offense has masked some of the stench of this profile, but we are looking at a player who has reached 55 receiving yards just once since September.
Targets per route by week:
- Week 6 at Green Bay Packers: 33.3% (aDOT: 9.5)
- Week 7 vs. Los Angeles Chargers: 23.1% (aDOT: 9.8)
- Week 8 at Miami Dolphins: 19.4% (aDOT: 20.0)
- Week 9 vs. Chicago Bears: 26.3% (aDOT: 17.8)
- Week 10 vs. New York Jets: 20.8% (aDOT: 8.2)
We don’t know what to think of Harrison because the Cardinals don’t know what to think of Harrison. The single-play upside and role remain promising, but that doesn’t make this season any less frustrating.
The Seahawks have bottom-10 defense across the board after a strong start to this season, and maybe that allows the rookie to get on track entering the fantasy playoffs (this is the first of two Seattle games in a three-week stretch). I hope it does. It should.
Harrison is a low-end WR2 for me until he shows me something resembling consistency.
Michael Pittman Jr. | IND (vs. DET)
The vibes around Indianapolis are better today than they were this time last week. Anthony Richardson showed signs of life in a tough spot against the Jets. Now, that didn’t mean big numbers for Michael Pittman Jr., but he did see eight targets. That’s at least a step in the right direction.
Production with Anthony Richardson, 2024:
- 27.2% below expectation
- 1.17 PPR points per target
Production with Joe Flacco, 2024:
- 3.6% below expectation
- 1.69 PPR points per target
I still prefer Pittman with Flacco under center and believe that he has been passed by Josh Downs as the WR1 in this offense. That said, I’m leaving the light on when it comes to a potential return to Flex value with time.
He could get there this week with Indy likely playing from behind, but I have my eyes more set on the finishing kick to the season (Titans/Giants in Weeks 16-17 with a bonus of the Jaguars in Week 18 if your league extends that deep).
We can circle back to Pittman this time next week should he see another eight targets this weekend. If Richardson is close to league-average as a passer on Sunday, I’ll be considering Pittman as a viable Flex option next week at New England.
Michael Wilson | ARI (vs. NYJ)
I’m going to stop trying to make Michael Wilson happen — for 2024. I reserve the right to fall for this trap again in August, but for the short term, there simply isn’t enough in this profile to make him roster-worthy.
Wilson’s size makes him a hypothetical big-play threat on a spreadsheet, though that doesn’t matter if the Cardinals’ playbook doesn’t align (single-digit aDOT in three straight games). Week 5 was the last time Wilson reached 35 receiving yards in a game, and with fewer than five targets six times this season, there’s no reason to hang onto this second-year receiver.
Mike Evans | TB (at NYG)
Rashod Bateman, Jameson Williams, Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, KhaDarel Hodge, Ricky Pearsall, Deebo Samuel Sr., George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, Christian McCaffrey, Foster Moreau, Juwan Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Brian Robinson Jr., Josh Reynolds, Saquon Barkley, Grant Calcaterra, Chris Godwin, Ryan Miller, Sean Tucker, Rachaad White, Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard, and Cade Otton.
What is that you ask?
It’s the list of all of the players with a catch gaining more than 25 yards in a Buccaneers game this season. Read through it again. Mike Evans’ name is not on that list.
That feels almost impossible, but with no more than three catches in four of his past six games, it makes some sense. Touchdowns have largely bailed you out, and while his track record suggests that he’s going to score more often than not (100 TD grabs in 161 career games), it’s worth being aware of the limitations, especially coming off of the hamstring injury.
Remember in 2022 when Evans entered the final week of the season needing 83 receiving yards to keep his 1,000-yard streak going and Tampa Bay funneled the offense his way (10-207-3 against the Panthers)?
He needs to average 95 yards per game the rest of the way to get there this season. So there’s that narrative to chance as we come down the stretch, but I tend to be on the more pessimistic side when it comes to this 31-year-old’s profile.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | TEN (at HOU)
Every season, we get spreadsheet breakers — Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is the favorite in the clubhouse for that award in 2024.
Season ranks, 2024:
- Ninth in receiving touchdowns
- 116th in receiving yards
- 163rd in targets
- 177th in receptions
Make it make sense. His 98-yard touchdown last week was just the continuation of a season that I can’t grasp. Despite limited involvement in a low-octane offense, Westbrook-Ikhine has scored in five of his past six games, routinely returning viable numbers without a sniff of sustainability attached to what he is doing.
I’m going to continue to dismiss him — if Westbrook-Ikhine is my downfall in 2024, I’ll live with it. We are approaching Thanksgiving and 66.9% of his PPR production has come via scoring plays in a Will Levis-led offense.
Nico Collins | HOU (vs. TEN)
Nico Collins was on the field for 46.7% of Houston’s offensive snaps in his return to action on Monday night, and it took him one whole play to remind us of what we were missing.
77-yard screen pass, touchdown. Easy game.
A little too easy, as an ineligible man downfield brought the play back, but the point remains that there is some elite explosion in this profile, and the Texans are very much in getting him up to alpha playmaker speed as soon as possible.
Even in a game that ultimately required little aggression through the air, Collins led this team in catches, targets, receiving yards, and yards per route, a sign of things to come. It goes without saying that he’s locked into your lineup and if you’re at all concerned about the Titans allowing the second-fewest receptions of 15+ yards to receivers per game this season, it’s worth noting that L’Jarius Sneed sat out Week 11 with a quad injury.
It’s wheels up for Collins managers!
Noah Brown | WAS (vs. DAL)
Noah Brown remains my second favorite Commanders receiver, but that role holds zero value in most fantasy leagues, especially with roster spots at a premium this time of year. His size profile and role (12.1-yard aDOT) give him upside for DFS managers, but the inability to rack up volume (no more than three receptions in seven of nine games this season) is more damning than his physical tools are promising.
This is a strong offense, and I like filling out my roster with players on teams like that, but this is a concentrated unit and Brown simply isn’t a part of the fun. Feel free to throw your end-of-roster darts elsewhere.
Puka Nacua | LAR (vs. PHI)
If you extend Puka Nacua’s past five regular-season games in which he has been on the field for at least half the offensive snaps, his 17-game pace is 126 catches for 2,071 yards and seven scores.
Yes, he’s that good. We saw it on the 38-yard catch-and-run on Los Angeles’ first drive last week, we saw it again on his sprawling 12-yard touchdown (somehow his first score of the season), and we see it seemingly every week from this second-year star.
PUKA. NACUA.
📺: @NFLonFOX | #RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/YqWw9l9ikK
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) November 17, 2024
We’ve seen four WR1s victimize the Eagles for 20+ PPR points (Jayden Reed, Chris Olave, Mike Evans, and Ja’Marr Chase). While Cooper Kupp is great, Nacua, who has seen his yards per route, target share, and red-zone target rate all improve from his historic rookie campaign, profiles as the top dog in this passing game.
Quentin Johnston | LAC (vs. BAL)
On the surface, Quentin Johnston serves as a good reminder that development isn’t linear, and outwardly dismissing a player with pedigree after one poor season is dangerous. He’s been a top-40 receiver in five of his past seven games, a level of production that we would have scoffed at three months ago.
Johnston has established himself as a viable deep threat (15.0-yard aDOT) in an offense that is beginning to open up, a valuable spot to be in this specific matchup. Here are the players to score 10+ points against Baltimore in a game this season solely on passes thrown at least 15 yards down the field:
- Ja’Marr Chase (Week 10): 34 deep points
- Ja’Marr Chase (Week 5): 13.9
- KaVontae Turpin (Week 3): 11.9
- Davante Adams (Week 2): 11.5
- Courtland Sutton (Week 9): 11.5
- Jalen Tolbert (Week 3): 11.4
- Cedric Tillman (Week 8): 10.8
- Elijah Moore (Week 8): 10.7
- Xavier Worthy (Week 1): 10.5
He can produce in this spot, without a doubt. But for all the nice things I just said about him, let’s not overreact and force him into lineups.
He still owns a 59.5% catch rate this season, and while his scoring on 27.3% of his receptions has resulted in nice past production, projecting such a bonkers rate to sustain is unwise (for reference, Ja’Marr Chase leads the league in TD receptions and has scored on 16.4% of his catches this season).
There’s a time and a place for Johnston. If you’re an underdog and want some Monday night upside, go for it. But if your matchup is projected to be a close one, this is the type of profile I find myself avoiding more often than not, something that requires discipline in this sort of matchup.
Johnston is my WR34 this week.
Rashod Bateman | BAL (at LAC)
Remember those preseason hype quotes about how impactful Rashod Bateman was going to be? Go ahead and save a reminder in your phone for August 22nd of this upcoming summer as a reminder to not fall for them.
He’s seen 4-5 targets in five of his past six games. Given that this offense has problems stabilizing any pass catcher, banking on a limited-opportunity role like that offers more risk than reward. We used to label Bateman as one of those “maybe one target can make my day” types, but he is not one of the 146 players this month with a 20-yard reception.
Given the matchup that his defense provides, there are three Charger receivers I’d rather roster this week (and moving forward for that matter) than Bateman.
Ricky Pearsall | SF (at GB)
Week 10 was a bit of a red herring, as the production splits made it seem as if the replacement of Brandon Aiyuk was a two-person job split between Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings in something of a receiver-by-committee situation.
That’s not the case.
Jennings made it clear that he is not only the preferred option of that duo but that he might well be the best target earner on this offense. He accounted for 10 of Brock Purdy’s 21 completions on Sunday against the Seahawks while Pearsall was shut out on just two targets.
I don’t think the splits will be that drastic weekly, but that was a game that George Kittle missed, so even if Pearsall’s slice of this offense grows from where it was last week, there’s only so much upward trajectory as the fifth option in this passing game.
Do you know what Pearsall is? At best, he’s Jennings when this offense was at full speed, and that role wasn’t fantasy-viable (3-5 targets being the most likely outcome with the high-value looks going elsewhere).
A name to keep in mind this offseason as the 49ers shuffle their deck? Sure, but not one that I’m too interested in as we navigate the rest of 2024.
Rome Odunze | CHI (vs. MIN)
Rome Odunze is coming off his second double-digit target day of his young career, and it helped him clear 100 air yards for the third time in four weeks. There is a foundation being laid in Chicago, and I like the prospects of their rookie receiver being a big part of things, it’s just a matter of whether it comes in 2024 or 2025.
With just one top-30 finish since September, outwardly trusting Odunze is a tough sell. With that understanding, I don’t think you’re crazy in considering him as a high-upside Flex or a DFS building block this weekend given his price point. The Vikings allow a league-high 5.2 receiver receptions of 15+ yards per game, and with an end-zone target in seven of his past nine games, one chunk play might be all it takes.
There’s certainly the risk of a floor week if Caleb Williams struggles against Minnesota’s exotic blitz packages — that needs to be considered. I’ve got Odunze ranked in the mid-30s at the position, with other boom/bust candidates like Christian Watson and Quentin Johnston.
Romeo Doubs | GB (vs. SF)
Romeo Doubs looked good last week if you watched the first drive and turned the game off. Sadly, I’ve yet to find a fantasy league that allows you to lock in that production and extend it forward.
Jordan Love’s first completion of last week’s dramatic win was a 17-yarder to Doubs, a nice hookup as he escaped the pocket and found his 6’2” weapon on the sideline. That said, it would have been easy to assume that Doubs suffered an injury of some kind, as he was hardly heard from the rest of the afternoon (he didn’t, he was on the field for 81.4% of the snaps).
His red-zone target rate has slipped from 22% a season ago to 13% this season, and that has taken his fantasy upside with it. Stashing Doubs can be justified given the potency of this Green Bay offense compared to others, but he’s not a must-hold asset in my eyes and certainly shouldn’t be near your Flex spot until proven otherwise.
Tank Dell | HOU (vs. TEN)
Might Tank Dell just kind of be an ordinary receiver? In seven of 10 games this season, he’s finished in the WR32-52 range. While that is more usable than it sounds, it’s certainly not growth from a strong rookie campaign.
As expected, his average depth of target regressed in favor of a slightly more involved role on Monday night with the return of Nico Collins, but it consistently resulted in the same basic production that landed him around 10 PPR points.
The Titans are the toughest deep-ball matchup that Dell can face (second-fewest yards per deep pass allowed this season, trailing only the Texans), and that’s not ideal for a breakout spot. However, he was schemed up to open both halves last week, and that gives me confidence we see another game with 6-8 targets and 9-12 PPR points. Viable? Yes. Special? No.
Terry McLaurin | WAS (vs. DAL)
The Week 11 loss to the Eagles was a mess, but if you’re panicking about Terry McLaurin after one dud, you don’t deserve him. Washington’s alpha had cleared 15 PPR points in five straight games before Thursday’s dud, and that’s closer to what you can expect the rest of the way.
Take a step back and look at the bigger picture. You trust this offense, right? You trust McLaurin’s role, right?
For the season, McLaurin has 6.7 more PPR points than the Commanders’ next three receivers, a role that is rivaled by few. He had no trouble earning targets against these Cowboys last season (19 in two games last year), a defense that was much more productive than the current version.
The only thing that worries me from the ugly performance last week is the fact that Philadelphia comes to town in Week 16. We can cross that bridge when we get to it — I’m starting McLaurin without a second thought in Week 12.
Tyler Lockett | SEA (vs. ARI)
Tyler Lockett entered this season trending in the wrong direction, and the recent emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba has all but ended any realistic hope of him projecting as a Flex option moving forward.
Chemistry with Russell Wilson on those deep passes was what made Lockett special for years, but the connection with Geno Smith simply isn’t the same and Father Time is a natural concern for a 32-year-old.
If you’re rounding out your roster with Lockett, I think you’re betting off streaming options that show sparks on a weekly basis. For me, Jalen Coker is a nice option for this weekend, and I’d make that move to see where the rookie goes as opposed to holding onto past production from Lockett.
Tyreek Hill | MIA (vs. NE)
If you can’t feel the Tyreek Hill explosion week coming, I’m not sure we can be friends. Over the past three weeks, he ranks eighth of 42 qualifiers in production over expectation and third in EPA per target. The play on the field backs up the data — his touchdown last week came on a Tua Tagovailoa scramble drill where we saw some of the non-verbal communication between the two that has made them such a potent tandem in the past.
He draws a New England defense that allowed him to account for one-third of Miami’s receptions in Week 5 (a Tyler Huntley start) and one that coughed up touchdowns to him in both meetings a season ago.
I think you’ll be rewarded for your patience with Hill for the final month-plus of the season, and it could well mean rostering fantasy’s top receiver in Week 12.
Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG (vs. TB)
At this point, we know who Wan’Dale Robinson is and you know if what he offers is a fit for your specific situation.
Robinson has hauled in at least five passes in seven of his past eight games. You need the volume because the yardage total is never going to carry you (he hasn’t hit 55 yards in a game since September).
The scoring equity is never where we want it, and the lack of a ceiling makes him unappealing in anything but perfect spots, but could this be one of those unique spots?
The Buccaneers allow opponents to complete the second-highest percentage of passes when throwing to the slot but are a top-10 unit when it comes to perimeter efficiency. If you’re ever going to play Robinson, this is as good a spot as you’re going to find yourself, and that has him flirting with my top 30 in PPR formats for Week 12.
Xavier Legette | CAR (vs. KC)
I remain intrigued by the direction of things in Carolina, and Xavier Legette is a piece of that puzzle. He’s out-produced expectations in all three games with Bryce Young back under center, something that I think will be interesting to take a deep dive into this summer. But it’s not something I’m trusting down the stretch of this fantasy season, understanding that every matchup takes on increased importance.
Legette caught 5+ passes just once this season. While four touchdowns on 29 receptions is a fun rate to extend for a full season of regular looks, it’s not a rate I’m labeling as sustainable in this offense, and certainly not against the eighth-best scoring defense in the NFL.
Legette sits outside of my top 40 at the position this week, though I am keeping him rostered — a Cowboys-Cardinals-Buccaneers finish to the fantasy season is enough to have me holding onto my shares.
Xavier Worthy | KC (at CAR)
Counting on Xavier Worthy at this point is a good way to make Sunday less fun. He has all the potential in the world, and yet, things are never easy. Even in a week in which he was ultimately productive (68 yards and a touchdown), you get plays like this that have the potential to swing fantasy matchups.
Xavier Worthy dragged his foot before he caught the ball, would have been a huge play pic.twitter.com/95lFV2IAKU
— Tedd Buddwell 🏀🏈 (@TedBuddy8) November 17, 2024
The optimist will point out that he is in a position to make these errors — with experience, hopefully, they get solved. But it’s been a maddening year. Nothing about this matchup, obviously, scares you, as the Panthers allow the third-highest opponent passer rating on deep passes (124.1 with an 11.3% touchdown rate). That puts the Kansas City burner on Flex radars, but we’ve learned through 11 weeks that it won’t be easy.
The path to playing Worthy is your roster construction. If you have star players with an elevated floor (Derrick Henry, Amon-Ra St. Brown, etc.), you can afford to take a shot like this. If you’re relying on options like Zay Flowers or Malik Nabers, I’d rather use this starring spot for a little more stability. Worthy posted a sub-60% snap share last week, just the third time he has done that, and a potential clue that these types of plays are wearing down the Chiefs as well.
Play him for the splash-play potential but proceed with caution.
Zay Flowers | BAL (at LAC)
The up-and-down season for Zay Flowers was never more prevalent than on Sunday, as he had what looked to be a back-breaking drop late in the game, a drive he’d later finish with a 16-yard touchdown grab to keep the Ravens in it.
If that single drive wasn’t symbolic of 2+ months of rostering Flowers, I don’t know what is. He leads the league in games with 110+ receiving yards (four) and ranks tied for fourth in the number of games with at least six targets and under 40 receiving yards (three) among receivers.
On paper, this doesn’t look like a great spot for Flowers, as the Chargers allow the second-fewest yards after the catch per reception to the slot this season. Largely, the receivers who have done damage against Los Angeles fall into a much different physical stature bucket than Flowers.
- Ja’Marr Chase: 6’, 201 pounds
- Tee Higgins: 6’4”, 219 pounds
- Calvin Ridley: 6’1”, 190 pounds
- Cedric Tillman: 6’3”, 216 pounds
Flowers stands 5’9” and weighs 175 pounds. With limited options, I doubt that you have three receivers (or a third running back) that I’d start over Baltimore’s roller coaster of a WR1, but I’m entering this week with lower expectations.