Week 12 is here, which means the playoffs are right around the corner. As we all know, there will be plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your fantasy football lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant running back in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 12 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Jones | MIN (at CHI)
It took some time, but the preseason fades of Aaron Jones seem to be coming to fruition. The veteran back has now gone four straight games without a 15-yard rush or a score on the ground (72 attempts), fueling production that sits 32.2% below expectation over that stretch.
Jones had a chance to score last week but couldn’t cash in from the 1-yard line, a drive Sam Darnold ultimately finished with a sneak.
This could be viewed as a get-right spot, as the Bears allow the fifth-most yards per carry to opposing running backs this season (4.9). Plus, the Vikings figure to be playing with a lead, which I don’t disagree with.
Minnesota does, however, continue to flirt with Cam Akers (he handled an entire first-half drive last week and scored in the third quarter). And with this offense more grounded of late (19 points per game over their past four), any semblance of a committee situation could render all involved useless.
With six teams on a bye this week, Jones grades as an RB2 for me this week and is a viable starter. However, I’d be nervous for the stretch run if I’m counting on him consistently (not a top-25 RB in three of his past four games), even with a reasonably light schedule ahead.
Alexander Mattison | LV (vs. DEN)
Alexander Mattison left Week 11’s loss to the Dolphins with an ankle injury, something that could end up saving you from yourself.
Since 2021, 52 running backs have at least 300 carries, and Mattison ranks 49th in boom/bust rate (the percentage difference in carries gaining at least 10 yards and that failed to gain yardage).
I’d argue that chasing the lead role in Vegas is a fool’s errand to begin with, and considering that we’ve already seen Mattison struggle in this spot (15 carries for 38 yards against Denver in Week 5), I’m not backing off of that now.
The Broncos allow the fourth-fewest yards per carry and touchdowns at the fifth-lowest rate to opposing backs. There is no clear path to Mattison mattering at full strength, let alone a compromised version of himself.
Ameer Abdullah projects as most likely player to lead this backfield in touches, but we are looking at a low-end Flex play at best.
Audric Estimé | DEN (at LV)
Well, that was fun, wasn’t it?
One week after Audric Estimé looked like the lead back of a surprisingly good Denver team, he handled 23.1% of their rush attempts and wasn’t involved at all in their opening script (first drive: nine plays, 70 yards, and a touchdown).
Broncos RB snap shares, Week 11:
- Javonte Williams: 53.3%
- Audric Estimé: 21.7%
- Jaleel McLaughlin: 13.3%
The rookie ran six times for 16 yards in the 32-point win over the Falcons and victimized all fantasy managers who spent big on him in free agency. I’m not sold that this is the Williams show in Denver, but he does profile as the best bet moving forward in what could be a backfield that has three viable NFL options but zero reliable fantasy options.
The Broncos ran for 109 yards and a score in their first meeting with the Raiders this season. The rushing pie might be a big one in this spot, but without any level of confidence in the size of Estimé’s slice, there’s no way you can justify playing him over a receiver in the Flex range like Quentin Johnston.
I’d even go down to rookie receivers with more solidified roles (think Jalen Coker and Jalen McMillan types) before tempting fate with Estimé this weekend.
Austin Ekeler | WAS (vs. DAL)
Brian Robinson Jr. returned last week, and yet, it was Austin Ekeler with the first touch of the game (a five-yard reception). Of course, Ekeler’s carry count was underwhelming (two, his fourth game this season with under five), but with nine targets, it didn’t matter at all.
Relying on a pass-catching back who is counted on in a singular way is dangerous, but given the direction of Washington’s offense, Ekeler is trending toward a Flex-worthy role. In Weeks 9-11, Jayden Daniels’ average distance of throw is just 5.3 yards, down from 8.1 through Week 8. If that continues, the veteran back is going to be a PPR asset for the remainder of the season.
There isn’t enough scoring equity in this profile for me to commit to Ekeler weekly. His one touchdown in a game with Robinson active came from 24 yards out, it wasn’t on a designed high-valued touch. However, with a 20-yard touch in eight of 10 games, there’s a level of explosion that we feared was a thing of the past
Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (vs. DAL)
Brian Robinson Jr. has run for seven touchdowns on 117 carries this season (career prior: seven rushing scores on 383 attempts), capitalizing on the improved offensive environment despite a snap share that has reached 65% just once this season.
With multiple red-zone touches in every one of his games this season, the opportunity to sustain this scoring rate is there. Robinson’s ypc after contact is up 21.8% this season from last, something that I credit to Daniels’ presence and defenses unable to swarm.
Robinson’s regression in the passing game isn’t ideal (nor unexpected with the acquisition of Ekeler in the offseason), but with north of 15 carries in five of his past six healthy games to complement his scoring equity, there’s no reason to run away from this profile.
The ceiling may be capped, but so is the floor. So long as his hamstring holds up, Robinson is someone fantasy managers can count on.
Bucky Irving | TB (at NYG)
The Buccaneers refuse to fully commit to one back, which is hurting the projections for both. Bucky Irving seems to have the slight edge, but with a sub-50% snap share in four straight, the floor is low no matter what you think of the talent.
I’m in. At least for this week.
Irving has as many 10+ yard runs as carries that have failed to gain yardage this season, making him the preferred option to Rachaad White in a traditional run game in which Tampa Bay is a road favorite.
The rookie has shown nice versatility (92.9% catch rate with multiple receptions in six straight), and that’s enough to earn him an RB2 grade from me this weekend, even without the promise of volume.
Cam Akers | MIN (at CHI)
Cam Akers hasn’t been efficient of late (23 carries for 63 yards over the past two weeks), but he does have a 10+ yard run in three straight and added a three-yard touchdown catch last week against the Titans — his first trip to the end zone since being traded.
I’m not here to tell you that Akers holds standalone value (I’m not positive that the starter in Minnesota holds significant value right now), but if you want to bet against Aaron Jones coming down the stretch of the season — a stance I took on draft day and remain committed to — Akers is the path to do so.
- Week 13 vs. Cardinals
- Week 14 vs. Falcons
- Week 15 vs. Bears
- Week 16 at Seahawks
- Week 17 vs. Packers
Nothing in that closing schedule scares me. I’d have Akers ranked as a top-20 running back if something were to happen to Jones, which is why he deserves to be rostered, even if there is no immediate utility.
Christian McCaffrey | SF (at GB)
For most backs, 42 touches over a two-week stretch comes with additional time in the cold tub penciled in for the following days. For Christian McCaffrey, we call it easing back into his regular role.
During those two games, CMC has handled 32 carries. Not a single one of them has gained more than 13 yards and none of them have finished in the end zone — and yet, he’s been a top-15 producer at the position in both games. Even without the impact plays, McCaffrey is picking up at least five yards on 40.6% of his rushes, giving him access to his always stable floor.
Is this the week we get an explosion game with San Francisco’s postseason hopes hanging in the balance?
It’s certainly possible and potentially projectable. The Packers are the sixth-worst run defense in terms of success rate, leading me to think that a few of those five-yard runs result in much more. I’ve made this the rare week where I’m paying top dollar for CMC in DFS contests.
Chuba Hubbard | CAR (vs. KC)
From Weeks 4-10, Chuba Hubbard was the only running back in the NFL to run for 95 yards and a touchdown while averaging 5.0 yards per carry in three separate games (Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Tyrone Tracy Jr. were the other backs to have multiple such games over that stretch). Say what you will about the organization extending him, but there is no denying that he has earned it on the field.
The debut for Jonathon Brooks looms, and any downtick in volume is a concern against the second-best success rate run defense in the league. That said, I need to see it before I fear it. Hubbard is averaging 19.1 touches per game this season, and even if that number falls to 16, he’ll still profile as a reasonable starter in all formats.
D’Andre Swift | CHI (vs. MIN)
The Bears are struggling, and Roschon Johnson is getting the goal-line work, yet nothing can slow the production machine that is D’Andre Swift.
He cashed in a carry from 39 yards out last weekend, the type of splash play that has become commonplace for a running back who has produced 7.4% over expectation over his past five games despite the shortcomings of everyone around him. As productive as Swift has been (three top-20 finishes over his past four games), I can’t shake this feeling of uncertainty this week.
Remove that long touchdown last week and we are looking at a player with 45 carries for 142 yards in November (3.16 yards per carry). After the first two weeks this season where opposing defenses were trying to gauge what to think of Caleb Williams, Swift has run into a loaded box on 32.8% of his carries, a trend that the aggressive Vikings figure to extend.
Speaking of Minnesota, its crowding of the line of scrimmage has helped fuel the top-rated run defense by success rate. They’ve allowed just 1.4 RB runs of 10+ yards per game this season (tied for the third-fewest), and if the splash play is less likely to be landed by Swift, we are looking at an uphill battle with Chicago as a home underdog.
Swift’s touch floor makes him a starter in just about every season-long format, but I have no interest in plugging him into DFS lineups and wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to start two backs ahead of him (Brian Robinson Jr. and Rico Dowdle are the two I have ranked just ahead of him for Week 12).
David Montgomery | DET (at IND)
David Montgomery has as many multi-score games this season as contests without a touchdown, and you could argue that he is just as valuable as the more explosive Jahmyr Gibbs.
In the Week 11 steamrolling of the Jaguars, Monty had four carries and a touchdown on the opening drive, a set of plays where Gibbs didn’t record a single official touch.
I prefer Gibbs in this specific matchup because the Colts often sell out to stop the run (one of four defenses allowing under one yard per carry before contact), and he’s the one with more creative usage. However, both of these backs are deserving of lineup-lock status weekly and should be considered viable DFS building blocks.
Derrick Henry | BAL (at LAC)
If 65 yards and a touchdown are a floor, you have to take it. Derrick Henry struggled according to his lofty expectations on Sunday in Pittsburgh (he even lost a fumble for the first time on 538 touches), and yet you still had every chance to win your matchup.
The sledding doesn’t get any easier this week against a Chargers defense that owns the lowest opponent rushing touchdown rate, but we are talking about one of the chosen few who is truly matchup-proof. I like Baltimore to bounce back on Monday night — if that comes to light, you can expect another triple-digit performance from Henry, potentially flipping your Week 12 matchup in the process.
Devin Singletary | NYG (vs. TB)
I understand if you’re holding onto Devin Singletary with the thought being that he is one injury away from a 15-touch role. That’s fine, but if you’re lumping him in as a part of your Flex conversation, you’re too optimistic for my liking.
Singletary has been on the field for under 36% of New York’s offensive snaps in all four games back from injury, and the passing-game role that we saw early (43 receiving yards in Week 3 in Cleveland) is all but gone (34 receiving yards since).
I think it’s more likely that the Giant’s backfield has zero viable assets than juggles two. For that reason, cutting ties with the backup is on the table should you need immediate help.
De’Von Achane | MIA (vs. NE)
Over the summer, we allowed ourselves to dream about what a featured version of De’Von Achane looks like, and that seems to be coming to fruition now. Miami hasn’t been shy about featuring its explosive second-year back since Tua Tagovailoa returned, and in those games, how he is being utilized is nothing short of elite.
Last week against the Raiders, he got a carry from inside the five-yard line and outraced the defense to the pylon. No surprise there given his high-end acceleration, and in addition to getting the between-the-20s work, he’s turned into one of the most feared and efficient pass-catching backs in the game (23 catches on 25 targets in those four contests).
You should have zero reservations about Achane. None. He’s positioning to be a league-winning type of asset in redraft formats, has a strong outlook for dynasty managers, and in DFS circles, he could well lead all Flex players in points this weekend against a Patriots defense that allows the seventh most yards per carry before contact to the position.
Your fantasy team is in good hands with Achane at the controls, you just have to make the right decisions around him to ensure that your team succeeds at a high level.
Ezekiel Elliott | DAL (at WAS)
Ezekiel Elliott had more catches (three) than carries (one) against the Texans on Monday night as he was on the field for just 31.6% of Dallas’ offensive snaps. As if those numbers aren’t underwhelming enough, the veteran back has been on the field for 4% of their first-quarter offensive snaps over the past two weeks, a clear indicator of where he sits on this depth chart.
Touchdown vultures hold enough value to remain rostered in most situations, and while that is the role we hoped would be the floor for Zeke, he’s not even that. There’s no need to be holding Elliott in any format.
Gus Edwards | LAC (vs. BAL)
Gus Edwards has totaled 16 touches in his two games back from injury, but his value was always going to come via the touchdown plunges — and that role is not available at the moment.
Not only has J.K. Dobbins punched in five scores over his past four games, but Jim Harbaugh has clearly given Justin Herbert the green light to run, further removing touch equity for Los Angeles’ RB2.
Edwards is a version of Austin Ekeler but without the pass-catching prowess. Not attractive to you? That’s because it shouldn’t be. Edwards’ lack of versatility this season (1.8% of touches have been receptions) is even more glaring than in years past (4.1%), making him a name you can leave on your wire.
Isiah Pacheco | KC (at CAR)
Including the playoffs, Isiah Pacheco is averaging 18.45 PPR points per game over his past 10 games. That would be RB5 this season, just ahead of Kenneth Walker III, Bijan Robinson, and Jahmyr Gibbs.
The Chiefs have been projecting a late November return for Pacheco (leg), and news broke on Sunday that the expectation is for him to return to action this weekend.
I, however, find it unlikely that Pacheco will assume an elite workload immediately upon his return. Kansas City’s record gives them a luxury with their RB1 that a team like San Francisco didn’t have.
That buys Kareem Hunt managers at least one more week of fantasy viability.
Stay close to the reporting, but I’m tentatively expecting a Week 13 return to fantasy lineups. Pacheco should be on the field this week, but with a short week coming up (they play on Black Friday against the Raiders), I’m not plugging him in right away.
Week 13 is not only a good matchup, but it gives Pacheco additional time to recover before a Week 14 showdown with the Chargers and approach his top form when the Chiefs need it most.
Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (at IND)
Is it just me, or have we seen this before?
Jahmyr Gibbs:
- 4.36-second speed
- 5.6 yards per carry in college
- 54.5% NFL snap share
- 20.2% production over expectation in the NFL
Lamar Miller:
- 4.40-second speed
- 5.7 yards per carry in college
- 61.1% snap share in 2015
- 18.2% production over expectation in 2015
Gibbs posted his fourth top-10 finish of the season last week against the Jaguars, showcasing his wide range of skills in the process. His acceleration allows him to create opportunities that don’t appear there, and that unique skill has allowed him to hold an RB22 floor this season.
Gibbs is a splash play waiting to happen. He has a 20+ yard gain both on the ground and through the air in consecutive games and can be counted on as an elite fantasy option.
It’s rare to turn a profit like this on an early-round pick. You made a good call in August, now it’s on you to capitalize with a 2024 title.
James Conner | ARI (at SEA)
That’s now four straight games with a TD or 100 rushing yards as James Conner continues to fend off Father Time with reasonable levels of success (though it should be noted that none of his 159 carries have gained more than 22 yards this season).
While the splash plays haven’t been there, just about every other box is being checked.
- Four straight games with 3+ red-zone touches
- Four straight games with a 15-yard gain
- Six straight games with at least three targets
- Six games this season with at least 18 carries
Seattle’s defense has regressed in a big way since its 3-0 start and doesn’t project as the type of defense that poses a threat to slow down the momentum of a rested Conner.
If you want to discuss Conner’s rest-of-season value, hit me up on X (https://x.com/KyleSoppePFN), but when it comes to the Week 12 rankings, I’m pushing forward without any hesitation.
Javonte Williams | DEN (at LV)
I thought Javonte Williams ran hard last week, and that’s all we can ask for in the hopes that one of these running backs gives Sean Payton the confidence to feature him. Until that is the case, and I’m not sold that it is just yet, starting Williams with confidence would be a tough sell if not for this specific situation (plus matchup and six teams on a bye).
When these teams first met back in Week 5, the Broncos averaged 4.4 yards per carry on 19 rushing attempts and saw four different players rip off a gain of 10+ yards on the ground. We’ve seen Williams reach his ceiling at times this season with three RB1 finishes, and his versatility could be weaponized against a Vegas defense that has the lowest average depth of opponent throws this season.
Your fate is in the hands of Payton, a rookie quarterback, and a backfield that has three options. You’re never going to feel comfortable in a spot like that, but I think we are looking at 12-15 touches — that’s enough to land Williams in my RB2 tier for Week 12.
Jaylen Wright | MIA (vs. NE)
The ‘Fins have clearly committed to De’Von Achane and I think managers with Jaylen Wright should be happy with this development.
The rookie is unlikely to hold stand-alone value regardless, and a commitment to Achane removes the temptation to play a low-opportunity Wright in your Flex spot
Dolphins RB snap shares, Week 11:
- Achane: 65.8%
- Wright: 21.4%
- Raheem Mostert: 14.5%
Wright was drafted as Achane’s insurance, and given these snap counts, he’s best positioned to move into the RB2 tier if the starting back were to get hurt. The Patriots allow 2.9 running back carries per game of 10+ yards, the fifth most in the league, making Wright an interesting DFS punt play if you’re trying to catch lightning in a bottle.
Jerome Ford, CLE (vs. PIT)
Jerome Ford doesn’t have more than a dozen touches in a game since September and can be safely cut. Not only is his usage borderline non-existent. Not only have his seven carries since returning picked up just 15. Not only has he not scored since a garbage time trip to the end zone in Week 1. But Cleveland gets Pittsburgh twice, Kansas City, and Denver over the next month.
Even if Ford were to end up with a role increase, the short-term outlook for those touches wouldn’t be nearly optimistic enough to justify burning a roster spot on him.
J.K. Dobbins | LAC (vs. BAL)
Four players this season have four games in which they did all of the following: scored a rushing touchdown, caught a pass, and averaged 5.0 yards per carry. Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, and J.K. Dobbins all have four such games.
Not too shabby.
The game-winning touchdown last week was encouraging, but it does seem like Jim Harbaugh wants to put his fate in the hands of Justin Herbert (three straight games with no more than 15 carries for Dobbins), and with Gus Edwards healthy, this run game could fall by the wayside at the wrong time.
We’ve seen a floor present itself with Dobbins having four finishes outside of the top 25, and a fifth is very possible in this matchup against the top rush defense by EPA. He currently sits as my RB24 this week with the hope being that the overall success of this offense can put Dobbins in a position to produce viable numbers, even if inefficiently.
Joe Mixon | HOU (vs. TEN)
Joe Mixon’s volume didn’t flinch with the return of Nico Collins on Monday night (22 touches for 153 yards and three scores), and he’s essentially an older version of what Kyren Williams was at the end of last season and the beginning of this one.
Do I love a veteran running back on a short week? Not usually, but we have no reason to doubt this profile.
Mixon’s carry projection was set at 21.5 by sportsbooks last week; if we get a line like that this week, I’ll again bet the under as this could be a pass-centric game based on matchup (the Titans are allowing just 3.7 yards per carry to opposing running backs this season, third-fewest) and rest situation with the bye coming up (Week 14),
Even with me committing to that angle, I have Mixon ranked as a top-10 RB this week due to the floor that comes with being featured in this offense.
Jonathan Taylor | IND (vs. DET)
The Jets sold out to stop the run last week in an effort to make Anthony Richardson beat them, and it worked — kind of.
They slowed Jonathan Taylor and held the former All-Pro to just 57 yards on 24 carries (2.4 yards per attempt), but they did end up losing the game. I think this approach could be one that is utilized against Indy moving forward, but maybe not in this spot where the Lions will want to prevent the Colts from matching their chunk plays.
When it comes to Taylor, the change under center off of Joe Flacco should have you encouraged.
With Anthony Richardson on the field:
- 3.4% production over expectation
- 41.7% conversion rate on rushes
Without Richardson on the field:
- 27.2% production below expectation
- 12.5% conversion rate on rushes
Taylor is going to have to produce like a star if the Colts are going to keep this game tight, and I think they give him every chance to do so.
Jonathon Brooks | CAR (vs. KC)
The expectation is for Jonathon Brooks to make his NFL debut on Sunday, and that gives us something to monitor, but this is pretty clearly a read-and-react situation. The Panthers have no motivation to push the rookie during this lost season: their goal over the final seven weeks of 2024 is to set themselves up for 2025.
The Chiefs own the best per-carry rush defense in the league (3.1 yards per carry to running backs), so Carolina is in a bind to return any viable running numbers, let alone from a kid returning from a knee injury that sidelined him from game action for over a year.
Jordan Mason | SF (at GB)
Remember a month ago when Jordan Mason was the toast of fantasy circles?
Christian McCaffrey is back doing Christian McCaffrey things, and as long as that is the case, Mason is nothing more than depth (three touches in the two games since McCaffrey made his season debut). Fantasy managers and the 49ers should have the same plan for Mason: break glass in case of emergency.
Josh Jacobs | GB (vs. SF)
Josh Jacobs has been trusted with at least 17 touches in five of his past six games and was a pretty clear focal point for the Packers last week. To open the game, he picked up 25 yards on four carries during Green Bay’s first six offensive plays of the game. To open the second half, Jacobs had a pair of touches to start a drive that he ultimately finished with a seven-yard score.
That doesn’t happen by accident and provides me with confidence in his floor. I also thought he looked fluid in the passing game last week, something that gives him access to a ceiling that not many have (three top-10 finishes this season). In fact, since the beginning of October, Bijan Robinson and Jacobs are the only running backs with at least 18 rush attempts and 20 receiving yards in three games
I don’t think we see that level of production this weekend against a San Francisco defense that has allowed running back carries to gain 15 yards just once a month, the lowest rate in the league. The floor is enough to start Jacobs with confidence, but you’re just very unlikely to see him replicate his strong Week 11 (134 yards and a touchdown).
Justice Hill | BAL (at LAC)
Justice Hill saw seven targets last weekend against the Steelers, something that is great to see if you believe the Ravens are going to be pushed. That’s certainly possible this week and for the majority of their remaining games (Eagles, Giants, Steelers, and Texans remain).
That said, without a game of 20 rushing yards since Week 3, there’s a low floor to consider if PPR managers are considering getting cute. My play is this: do nothing. The Ravens have their bye in Week 14 and Hill could be cut loose at that time.
If you want his pass-catching role on your bench, add him during the bye and be on your way. As long as Derrick Henry is healthy, Hill is never going to rank as a starter for me, though I did like what I saw last week; with the rematch coming in crunch time for fantasy leagues, there’s sound logic that comes with rostering him.
Kareem Hunt | KC (at CAR)
Volume has been the name of the game for Kareem Hunt this season, a calling card that has been safe since he joined the team.
NFL rush attempt leaders, Weeks 4-11:
- Derrick Henry: 141 (6.4 yards per carry)
- Kareem Hunt: 139 (3.7)
- Kyren Williams: 137 (4.3)
- Saquon Barkley: 134 (5.9)
The inefficiency hasn’t been a damning thing for fantasy managers up to this point, but with Isiah Pacheco expected back, we could be looking at this house of cards collapsing in short order.
I had Hunt ranked over Isiah Pacheco entering this week and now have Hunt as a strong RB2 play with news breaking on Friday that the team’s starter won’t return this this game.
With the Chiefs more focused on late January than late November/early December, I’d be shocked if we saw Pacheco come back the same way as Christian McCaffrey. You might be able to get another two weeks out of Hunt, but banking on him to be a fantasy asset during your playoffs is a bit optimistic for my liking.
Kenneth Walker III | SEA (vs. ARI)
With at least three catches or a touchdown in every game this season, Kenneth Walker III has established a very nice floor that PPR fantasy managers can’t argue with.
A little irritating is the fact that Walker hasn’t offered the one-play potential that we assumed to be in his bag entering this season — he is not one of the five Seahawks with a 30-yard touch this year.
I can’t imagine we end the season with that being the case, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if we got an explosive play this weekend against a Cardinals defense that allows the eighth-most yards per carry after contact to running backs.
As long as Walker is healthy, he’s a top-15 running back for me, and in good spots like this, he’s inside of my top 10 at the position.
Kyren Williams | LAR (vs. PHI)
Kyren Williams is an auto-start due to his role and the upside of this offense, but there is no denying that there is more risk in this profile today than there was a month ago.
That’s now three straight games finishing outside of the top 20 for Williams, a run that has, not surprisingly, coincided with his touchdown “drought.” The scoring opportunities will sort themselves out with time, though this isn’t the week to bank on that with the Eagles giving rushing scores to opposing running backs at the third-lowest rate through 11 weeks.
What has me more worried was the zero-target showing from last week, his second such game of the season. If that sustains, there is a week-ruining floor to at least consider moving forward.
You’re not making any actionable changes, though I would lower expectations a touch from where they stood not long ago.
MarShawn Lloyd | GB (vs. SF)
MarShawn Lloyd was nearing a return from ankle and hamstring issues this time last week after Green Bay opened up his 21-day return window. Yet, in the lead-up to Week 11, Lloyd woke up with appendicitis, an ailment that typically takes upwards of two months to recover from.
I wouldn’t forget his name in 2025, but with Josh Jacobs not set to become an unrestricted free agent until 2028, we’re looking at a handcuff RB at best with no NFL game experience.
In regards to this season, the Packers are in discussions with the league as to how to label their rookie back in terms of roster designations. That doesn’t matter to you, though. Lloyd is safe to cut in all formats, even if you’ve been stashing him in your IR slot (you can do better).
Rachaad White | TB (at NYG)
There’s no denying that Rachaad White’s skill set is limited, but “limited” doesn’t mean useless.
White has seen at least six targets in three of his past four games and has found paydirt five times in that span. That said, his profile certainly carries a significant amount of risk.
White hasn’t had more than 10 carries in a game since the season-opening win over the Commanders, and his boom/bust rate (percentage difference in carries gaining at least 10 yards compared to the rate of runs that fail to gain yardage) is an ugly 21.3%.
This season, only 5% of White’s runs have picked up 10 yards. And in a game where Tampa Bay should be playing with a lead, Bucky Irving is the direction I prefer to go in this backfield if given the opportunity.
White is a viable Flex option in full-PPR formats, but if the game script works away from him, a single-digit performance is very possible.
Raheem Mostert | MIA (vs. NE)
Don’t you hate it when “rock bottom” isn’t actually rock bottom?
Raheem Mostert didn’t record a single carry against the Rams in Week 10, a disappointing week that he followed up with three carries … for negative two yards.
With no targets in Week 11, you have every reason to cut Mostert. This team has committed to the upside that De’Von Achane brings to the table, and they are exploring with Jaylen Wright at times, leaving little meat on the bone for the veteran back.
If you need to trim the fat on your roster for immediate help, Mostert can be let go. I wouldn’t cut him just for the same of doing it as he’s only an injury away from a reasonable projection, but don’t feel committed to keeping him if you’re in desperation mode.
Rhamondre Stevenson | NE (at MIA)
Rhamondre Stevenson has been a top-20 running back in three of the past four weeks and was productive in the Week 5 loss to these Dolphins (12 carries for 89 yards and a touchdown). It should be noted that the first meeting was a much anticipated Jacoby Brissett vs. Tyler Huntley showdown, giving it little predictive power in terms of game flow.
It’s been a mess efficiency-wise for Stevenson since the strong showing (77 carries for 229 yards, 2.97 yards per carry), as he has struggled to rip off the chunk plays. In those five games, New England’s bell cow doesn’t have 15-yard gain, making him a volume-reliant back.
That’s a dangerous role in a game where his team is a touchdown underdog and facing the best run defense in terms of yards per carry allowed to running backs before contact (13.3% fewer than any other defense).
I have my concerns, though I can’t overlook the projectable volume. I have Stevenson ranked as RB19, just ahead of Kareem Hunt and Bucky Irving, two running backs in good spots but with more competition for work.
Rico Dowdle | DAL (at WAS)
Heading into Week 11, we got confirmation that Rico Dowdle would be the lead back in this offense. That’s glorious. All we ask for is straight-shooting from these organizations, and we got just that from the Cowboys last week.
There is no more running back by committee in Dallas. Mike McCarthy said Rico Dowdle is the Cowboys lead back: “Definitely, you have to get him the ball. That's my focus to continue to get him opportunities. He's the lead back.”
— Clarence Hill Jr (@clarencehilljr) November 14, 2024
Of course, Houston went on to beat the breaks off of Dallas, completely neutralizing the run game in the process. That could well be the case this weekend as well, though I’m skeptical about the potency of this Washington offense with a compromised version of Jayden Daniels.
That concern is fueling my ranking of Dowdle as a top-20 running back this week. I believe this franchise when they say that a 55-pass Cooper Rush game isn’t the plan; if they can keep this thing even remotely close, the fact that the Commanders allow the second-most yards per carry to running backs this season (5.1) is all it takes to sell me on Dowdle.
With multiple receptions in five straight games, there are a few paths to production. I’m not expecting this to be a work of art, but this is very much like golf in that there are no pictures on the scorecard. I think we are looking at 65-75 total yards with 3-5 targets and a red-zone role — that’s enough for me to rank you as a starter in Week 12.
Roschon Johnson | CHI (vs. MIN)
For whatever reason, touchdown vultures aren’t as prevalent as they have been in years past.
I take that back. Vulture running backs aren’t as prevalent. Vulture quarterbacks are now all the rage, but the Bears seem hesitant to put Caleb Williams in harm’s way like that, and that has opened the door for Roschon Johnson to carve out a role that has the eye of fantasy managers.
Three players have at least five rushing touchdowns from the one-yard line this season: Jalen Hurts (eight), David Montgomery (five), and Johnson (five).
I’m never going to rank Johnson as a top-30 player; the touch count just doesn’t grade well and banking on an offense stalling inside the five-yard line is a dangerous game to play, but this is a player I want on my roster.
If you’ve played fantasy football for any length of time, you know that there will be a week where you are grasping for straws. You’ll be searching the wire for a six-touch running back or a speedy receiver who, at best, is looking at three targets.
In spots like that, Johnson is perfect, as a six-point carry stands to rank him over those other options. We are looking at a roster-construction play rather than one for whom you look at Week 12’s fantasy rankings for encouragement.
Saquon Barkley | PHI (at LAR)
Saquon Barkley is the fifth player since the 1970 merger with at least 1,300 scrimmage yards and 10 scores in his first 10 games with a franchise, joining Ezekiel Elliott (2016), Adrian Peterson (2007), Eric Dickerson (1983), and Billy Sims (1980).
The production relative to expectation (+29.5%) is easily a career best (his first season with a positive return since 2019), and it’s coming exactly how we thought it would — a 167.3% spike in yards per carry before contact.
Is it irritating that the man has been tackled inside the 3-yard line 11 times this season and has just one touchdown to show for those possessions? Of course, it is. But when modern-day Barry Sanders is handling 22 touches per game for a team operating with a positive game script on a regular basis, you thank your lucky stars for the privilege of starting Barkley every week.
A Pittsburgh matchup in Week 15 looms, but around that are games against the Panthers, Commanders, and Cowboys. Barkley has been among the most valuable high-end assets in fantasy this season, and there’s no reason to think that momentum slows as the weather cools.
Tony Pollard | TEN (at HOU)
The Titans have lost consecutive games by 10 points, and that, naturally, caps the volume of their lead back, Tony Pollard. In most situations, I’d tell you not to worry, as the game script tends to level out with time for the majority of the league — but this isn’t most situations.
This is the first of three games in a four-week stretch where the Titans take on a quarterback more than capable of lighting up the scoreboard (C.J. Stroud this week, Jayden Daniels next, and Joe Burrow in Week 15), thus putting Pollard’s rushing equity in major doubt.
I’m not sounding the alarm, as he does have multiple receptions in every game this season, but without a solid rushing foundation, dud weeks like Week 11 are going to happen. Pollard has been the lead in Tennessee all season and he has three weekly finishes outside of the top 30 at the position.
A fantasy team is no different than a “real” team in that every player has his role. Pollard’s role for you is to give you a reasonable floor and that’s fine as long as you aren’t expecting him to be a week winner.
Trey Benson | ARI (at SEA)
Trey Benson continues to show plenty of promise and deserves to be 100% rostered in competitive leagues due to his proximity to upside. Even in a secondary role, the third-round rookie has cleared 10 PPR points in consecutive games, posting both a 14-yard rush and reception in both contests.
Of course, he has a James Conner problem, which will prevent Benson from ranking as a Flex option on the granular basis that is Week 11. Yet, him being an injury away holds significant value from a roster construction standpoint.
Conner has been great, but that doesn’t change the fact that he is a 29-year-old who is averaging 20.3 touches per game over the past month and has missed multiple games in every season of his NFL career. Benson has produced 14.7% over expectation this season and would walk comfortably into my top 20 at the position should Conner find himself on the shelf at any point moving forward.
Tyjae Spears | TEN (at HOU)
Tyjae Spears entered concussion protocol on Monday. While he has been on the field a decent amount after missing a month (47.1% snap share in Week 10 and 43.6% on Sunday), this offense isn’t strong enough to support a secondary role.
I remain intrigued by what it is that Spears brings to the table, but that’s a conversation to be had this summer for 2025, not for helping you win over the next six weeks. You can feel just fine about moving on from Spears in most formats, assuming that there is a role/matchup that you find intriguing on the wire.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG (vs. TB)
Tyrone Tracy Jr. has 107 carries for 545 yards and three scores this season — Saquon Barkley had 508 yards and five touchdowns on his first 107 carries for the Giants.
That’s just number-bending magic, and no, I don’t think this kid is Barkley 2.0, but he’s been that level of impressive. I also make that comparison to alert you that the bottom can fall out. Remember way back in 2023 when this offense was so prohibitive that Barkley averaged a career-low 3.9 yards per carry?
You just need to come down the stretch with your eyes wide open. Tracy played a season-high 79.5% of the offensive snaps in Week 10 against the Panthers (18 carries for 103 yards) and has multiple red-zone touches in three straight.
There’s an inherent risk that comes with being a part of this offense. The Bucs’ defense has plenty of holes, but in the two weeks before the bye, it held San Francisco and Kansas City to 199 yards on 57 carries (3.49 yards per rush).
Zach Charbonnet | SEA (vs. ARI)
Zach Charbonnet handled 32 carries in the two games that Kenneth Walker III missed but has just 33 rush attempts in the other eight games. That has relegated him to the handcuff only territory that gradually becomes more expendable with time.
The former second-round pick has been unable to find much in the way of running room when given the opportunity this season (0.38 yards per carry before contact this season), leaving me without extreme confidence that he’d rank inside of my top 15 if Walker were to get injured.
If your leagues are like mine and the waiver wire is baron, there’s no need to cut Charbonnet. However, should a win-now manager cut someone of interest to you, feel free to make the swap.