Week 12 is here, which means the playoffs are right around the corner. As we all know, there will be plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your fantasy football lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant quarterback in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 12 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Anthony Richardson | IND (vs. DET)
Anthony Richardson returned to the starting role and looked reasonably viable against the Jets. In the win, he completed five of seven passes (71.4%) when blitzed, a big step forward from his 28.1% completion percentage in such spots prior.
Of course, this is a tiny sample. We are also nitpicking the least important part of the fantasy profile.
Since the start of last season, Richardson has more rushing touchdowns than Aaron Jones and the same number (seven) as Lamar Jackson — the man has played 11 games of a possible 28 over that stretch.
The first touchdown last week was a two-yarder where he threw a stiff arm behind the line of scrimmage and plowed into paydirt — nothing we haven’t seen from him in the past, but great to see a lack of hesitation.
Passing very much remains a work in progress, and that’s going to prevent me from ranking Richardson as a top-12 option. But his skill set keeps him in that conversation, especially in a game where Indianapolis is chasing points.
The five highest-scoring QBs against the Lions this season have all run for at least 29 yards, giving Richardson truthers some hope that this is a spike week. We know that we are looking at a boom/bust option with as wide a range of outcomes at the position as anyone in the league.
Baker Mayfield | TB (at NYG)
If we are going to complain about the rash of receiver injuries this season, we have to give their offenses a bump when they return. So with Mike Evans (hamstring) expected back for this contest, I have Baker Mayfield ranked as a fantasy starter this weekend.
Mayfield’s yards per attempt have declined in four straight games, but didn’t I see C.J. Stroud struggle following the Nico Collins injury and Patrick Mahomes’ numbers look different without Rashee Rice?
Since the start of 2023, 10.5% of Mayfield’s passes thrown to Evans have resulted in scores, a rate that more than doubles his number to all other Buccaneers (4.7%).
The Giants boast a top-10 defense in terms of pressure rate, a strength that Mayfield is capable of undoing, given that he is averaging a respectable 3.1 rushing fantasy points per game.
Tampa Bay is a road favorite in this spot and should flirt with 30 points. If that’s the case, Mayfield likely finishes Week 12 as a top-10 signal-caller, which is how I have it ranked.
Bo Nix | DEN (at LV)
Bo Nix has a pair of finishes inside of the top three at the position over the past four weeks, matching Josh Allen in that regard for the season. He’s far from a finished product, but for our game, he’s already an asset.
We saw some of the development from Nix in Denver’s first drive last week — he completed four of five passes while targeting four different players and firing a touchdown in the process. He’s checking all of the boxes we want, and that lands him inside my top 10 this week against a defense that allows the third most yards per slot pass attempt this season.
Why highlight that specific stat? Nix is a cool 13-of-13 for 141 yards and a touchdown to the slot over the past two weeks. Buckle up, this isn’t a flash in the pan!
Brandon Allen | SF (at GB)
With Brock Purdy’s status up in the air, Brandon Allen is the next man up. The career back-up has thrown just 37 passes since the beginning of 2021 and doesn’t boast the kind of athletic profile that it takes to overcome a career 56.7% completion percentage.
Should Allen take over, Green Bay’s defense could prove to be a slate breaker. They are the third best team at creating pressure when blitzing and you can rest assured that they’d be looking to heat up the 32-year old. The value of Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are at risk, though I still think you’re playing them this week despite the lowerd expectations.
Brock Purdy | SF (at GB)
Not having George Kittle pretty clearly hurt Brock Purdy last week against Seattle, as he averaged just 5.7 yards per pass, more than a full yard below any other game for him this season. He’s battling a sore right shoulder that requires some monitoring but isn’t expected to significantly limit him.
Purdy has completed 46 of 64 passes (71.9%) since Christian McCaffrey returned, a movement toward his elite-efficiency form that we saw all of last season. The rushing numbers are why I’m not selling any of my Purdy shares right now (four rushing scores over his past four games and a 454-yard pace).
The aggressive Packers, in my mind, are vulnerable to the type of calculated offense that Kyle Shanahan designs, and that is why I have Purdy ranked as a top-10 signal caller this week. The 49ers face the Dolphins and Lions in Weeks 16-17, games I want exposure to, but if those games are going to matter, San Francisco needs to show some signs of life.
I like Purdy more than you this week and have him as a legitimate buy in DFS contests.
Bryce Young | CAR (vs. KC)
To say it’s been rough sledding for Bryce Young up to this point in his career would be undershooting things, but at least fantasy managers haven’t been tempted to invest in him or the pieces attached to him. Through 21 career starts, Young stacks up with some…names.
- Young through start No. 21: 72 passer rating, 15 TDs, 16 INTs, and 5.4 yards/attempt
- Zach Wilson through start No. 21: 71.8 passer rating, 15 TDs, 17 INTs, and 6.5 yards/attempt
- JaMarcus Russell through start No. 21: 70.9 passer rating, 15 TDs, 13 INTs, and 6.3 yards/attempt
- Brandon Weeden through start No. 21: 70.7 passer rating, 22 TDs, 27 INTs, and 6.4 yards/attempt
I have more optimism for Young long-term than the three others, but that’s obviously setting a low bar.
This is a brutal matchup, and while we’ve seen some minor forward steps over the past month, Young is a ways away from viable in standard formats. With six teams on a bye, Superflex managers aren’t going to have a better QB2 option, and I’d still prefer him to an RB3/WR3 type, given that our game is more friendly toward signal-callers and that the Panthers are motivated to let him work through struggles.
Caleb Williams | CHI (vs. MIN)
We are getting breadcrumbs when it comes to the pedigree of Caleb Williams.
OK, more like a singular crumb. The man hasn’t thrown a touchdown in the USA since Week 5, so let’s not get carried away; but with over 45 rushing yards in three of his past five, there are signs of a plan when it comes to his path to fantasy stardom.
Williams shouldn’t be near redraft rosters right now, and I don’t expect that to change, but you can mark this down. I’ll be in on him next season after having a full season to adjust to the speed of the pro game and work with his talented nucleus.
C.J. Stroud | HOU (vs. TEN)
Nico Collins returned last week, and the results for C.J. Stroud were … well, they were nothing like what we expected.
With his WR1 back, I didn’t expect a zero-TD, lowest-aDOT-of-the-season performance against the vulnerable Cowboys. Of course, all of that changes if the 77-yard touchdown to Collins on the first play stands, but it didn’t and this offense was far more conservative than I thought we’d see.
I don’t think what we saw last week was a sign of things to come, but the Titans are the second-best defense in terms of yards per pass against, making them a less-than-perfect opponent for this offense to hit its stride.
All of that said, I do expect the rust to be knocked off and for Stroud to come out with more aggression this week than last. I’m starting him where I have him, though I do have him ranked closer to QB12 than QB5.
Cooper Rush | DAL (at WAS)
Are we sure that he is going to continue to start? Trey Lance looms, and the sheer risk of an in-game benching is enough to talk me out of getting creative in two-QB leagues.
Cooper Rush threw 55 passes on Monday night, this coming the same day when his coach didn’t hesitate to tell the ESPN broadcast that the goal is to not have him throw 40 times. Dallas is fully aware that its path to competing is not to go to a pass-heavy script, and when the organization is actively trying to limit the fantasy production of its QB, we are wise to listen.
Lance’s skill set carries more fantasy potential — we can address that situation should it come to light.
Drake Maye | NE (at MIA)
Since Drake Maye took over in Week 6, there’s a three-way tie atop the league in terms of games with at least 18 rushing yards and a passing score. Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Maye all have five such games.
Is that a cherry-picked stat to fit my needs? It sure is, but the point remains that we are looking at a player that is more impactful in fantasy wins and losses than real-life results at this point.
Any rookie is going to come with a wide range of weekly outcomes, and Maye is no exception. That risk is built into my QB14 ranking, as I expect it to be an aggressive script against the only defense in the NFL yet to intercept a deep pass.
Miami also owns the fourth-lowest sack rate, meaning we could get a glimpse of Maye’s upside as a passer. Could this be the week we see it all come together for the third overall pick?
I’m not projecting him as a starter, but I’m not ruling it out, and I will have some shares in the DFS streets.
Gardner Minshew II | LV (vs. DEN)
Gardner Minshew II has more games with zero touchdown passes than with multiple touchdown strikes, making him a tough sell against anyone, let alone the fourth-best yards-per-attempt pass defense in the sport.
There simply aren’t enough weapons on this Vegas roster to elevate the status of an ordinary QB, and that’s not going to change coming down the stretch of this season.
Geno Smith | SEA (vs. ARI)
Geno Smith won the game last week with a sprint to the pylon, a saving grace for an otherwise ineffective fantasy day at the office.
Smith has failed to throw a touchdown pass in two of his past three contests and has just two efforts with multiple TD tosses this season, fueling three finishes outside of the top 20 over his past five games.
The rushing production is too spotty and the passing game is too conservative to count on Smith in most one-QB formats. This matchup doesn’t scare me, though it is worth noting that the Cardinals rank as the 10th-best red-zone defense, but I think Seattle attacks the fourth-worst run defense more with Kenneth Walker III than Smith’s right arm.
Jalen Hurts | PHI (at LAR)
It’s hard to contextualize this run of production. Jalen Hurts now has at least 11 rushing touchdowns in three straight seasons. Some players without three such seasons on their NFL résumés include Christian McCaffrey, Jerome Bettis, Tiki Barber, and Arian Foster.
I don’t love the fact that Hurts has only four games this season with multiple touchdown passes, but given how stable his rushing production is, it really doesn’t matter. How do you slow down a unique athlete like this? In theory, you keep him in the pocket, but Hurts has honed that aspect of his game.
In-pocket production, 2024:
- 75.2% completion percentage
- 40.5% first-down rate
- 9.2 yards per attempt
Hurts is the best goal-line player in the game while producing in a similar fashion from the pocket as Joe Burrow. Only time will tell if the Eagles can have success in the postseason, but in terms of our game, there hasn’t been a more reliable option for going on three seasons.
Jared Goff | DET (at IND)
When Jared Goff is given time and playing with confidence, this offense is poetry in motion. He now has five games this season with multiple passing scores and no more than five incompletions, the first player to do that in the 2000s. In fact, the only other QB with five such regular season games since the start of 2021 is Lamar Jackson.
The Colts concede the sixth-highest red-zone completion percentage (65.2%), a flaw that allows me to elevate a pocket-locked QB like Goff inside of my top 10. He’s posted three finishes inside the top five this year, and while I don’t think we get there this week, I’m starting him where I have him (my Week 12 rank: QB7).
Jayden Daniels | WAS (vs. DAL)
A rookie wall? I’m not going that far, but there’s no denying that Jayden Daniels hasn’t been the same since suffering his rib injury in Week 7.
- Weeks 1-7: 75.6% completion percentage, 107.0 passer rating
- Week 8-11: 59.5% completion percentage, 89.6 passer rating
Daniels has failed to reach 210 passing yards in three straight. More concerning for our purposes is that he’s rushed for a total of 23 yards over the past two weeks. I’m reading this as a reason to watch him with a close eye, but I’m holding off full-blown panic for another week.
Lamar Jackson completed 80% of his passes and picked up 14.7 rushing points against these Cowboys, while Jalen Hurts had a 70% completion rate with 17.6 points on the ground against them.
I have Daniels ranked as a must-start in all formats this weekend and am optimistic about his ability to get your fantasy team to the finish line coming out of the Week 14 bye for the fantasy postseason.
Jordan Love | GB (vs. SF)
Jordan Love is having a difficult time stringing four strong quarters together. That is preventing him from living up to the expectations we laid out this summer.
Love has thrown an interception in all eight of his games, with a mistake coming in the red zone in two of the past three matchups. Turnovers generally don’t bother me as much as they do others if they come as a result of aggression, but those interceptions hold more weight when they take sure fantasy points off the board and turn them into a negative.
The desperate 49ers don’t exactly profile as a bounce-back spot. They are the top unit when it comes to defending the deep pass (46.2 passer rating and 32.8% completion percentage). For a quarterback struggling with consistency, a matchup against a defense that limits the splash plays as well as anyone isn’t ideal.
Not all is lost, Love managers. Green Bay’s first drive was a masterpiece (four different players had a 10-yard touch), and Love had a gutsy run late in the game to get the offense to the goal line before finishing the drive with his first rushing score of the season.
I remain optimistic about the long-term outlook, but for Week 12, I can’t justify ranking Love as a starter. He hasn’t posted a top-10 performance since Week 6, and I don’t think he gets there on Sunday (my QB14 this week).
Justin Herbert | LAC (vs. BAL)
The development of this Chargers team has been a great story to track, and Justin Herbert’s fantasy stock has been soaring as a result. The fifth-year signal-caller has posted four straight QB1 finishes as a result of him doing a bit of everything.
Not only has Herbert not thrown an interception since Week 2, allowing him to stay on the field and produce, but he’s cleared 4.5 fantasy points on the ground in three of the last four games, rush attempts that have been a mix of design and determination. He’s checking every box you could ask for, and this matchup only serves as an amplifier.
During this four-game run, Herbert has thrown a touchdown on 16.7% of his deep passes, a massive step forward from the 4.9% rate he posted over his 24 games prior. That’s a great trend by itself, as it provides the ability to overcome minor slumps like what we saw on Sunday night. But in this matchup, it’s gold.
The Ravens cough up the fourth-most yards per deep pass attempt this season, and with a total hovering around 50 points, it’s not hard to envision a game that much resembles Week 11’s 34-27 win over the Bengals.
The schedule toughens at the wrong time for fantasy managers (Chiefs in Week 14 and Broncos in Week 16), but in the scope of this week, you should feel great about having a Monday night hammer.
Kyler Murray | ARI (at SEA)
Kyler Murray’s profile is evolving in a way I didn’t expect, and, to be honest, I’m here for it.
Murray’s passer rating on deep passes this season is up from 44.7 last year to 110.6 this year, numbers that were aided by him completing a franchise record 17 straight passes in Week 10 against the Jets. That game featured a season-low 4.6-yard aDOT, symbolic of an offensive shift (sub-6.5-yard aDOT in four of his past five games) that has him owning the highest passing floor of his young career.
We, as fantasy managers, have had to surrender some of the rushing production to get access to this growth. Murray opened the season with three straight games of 45 rushing yards, but he only has two such games since (two touchdowns against the Jets helped mask the limited rush count).
I’m more than happy to make that trade.
We know the rushing talent is in this profile and that it can reemerge at a moment’s notice. Murray has proven to be lethal from the pocket lately (79.7% completion percentage over his past three games), and if that proves sticky, he gives himself the ability to lead the position in points in any given week.
Could this be that week with Josh Allen on bye and Lamar Jackson in Los Angeles to face the Chargers? I think it’s possible — at the very least, Murray is set up to be the most productive QB on the DFS main slate.
Lamar Jackson | BAL (at LAC)
Lamar Jackson is coming off his worst performance of the season, and this matchup isn’t exactly a get-right spot. Through 11 weeks, the Chargers own the fourth-highest sack rate despite blitzing at a bottom-10 rate, a unique level of defensive production that could cause the reigning MVP some problems.
Jackson’s completion percentage when pressured without a blitz sits at 41.8% this season, down from 56.3% in 2023. Of course, the passing numbers are only half the battle when slowing Jackson, and we saw Kyler Murray peel off for a 44-yard score against the Chargers back in Week 7.
For my money, Jackson is as close to matchup-proof as any QB in the league. I’ve dropped him as low as he’ll get in my rankings — he’s sitting at the bottom of my top tier and an unquestioned starter in every format imaginable.
Matthew Stafford | LAR (vs. PHI)
Matthew Stafford’s accuracy was on full display in New England on Sunday, and that is what it takes for a QB like this to return value. His 69-yard touchdown strike to Cooper Kupp was placed perfectly to beat the Cover 0 defense, and he dropped a 19-yard dime into the bucket for a Colby Parkinson score.
He’s been strong in the four weeks since getting his two receivers back (go figure!), posting a 6.6% pass touchdown rate, up from 1.5% through Week 7. That all sounds great, but guess what? He’s only the 10th-best per-game QB over that stretch, one that resembles much more of a ceiling than a realistic expectation.
We know the Eagles have the ability to sustain long drives, something that limits the possession count, and they are the fifth-best red-zone defense in the league. I’m not confident in projecting top-15 numbers for a pocket passer like Stafford in this matchup — I’d rather take my chances on Anthony Richardson (vs. DET) this week.
Patrick Mahomes | KC (at CAR)
Patrick Mahomes can be the most feared quarterback in real life while also being an afterthought in our game, and that is the space in which he is currently living. What do these quarterbacks have in common?
- Anthony Richardson
- Daniel Jones
- Justin Fields
Yes, they’ve all been benched this season, that’s factually accurate. But they all also have more top-10 finishes this season than Mahomes, how crazy is that?
It goes without saying that nothing about this matchup is intimidating, but the flaws that have presented themselves all season long could be magnified on Sunday — the need for big numbers. With Kansas City a double-digit road favorite, there’s even more risk than normal that No. 15 won’t be relied on at the rate we need. I have Mahomes ranked as my QB12 this week, putting him right on the fringe.
- QB9: Bo Nix (at LV)
- QB10: Baker Mayfield (at NYG)
- QB11: Tua Tagovailoa (vs. NE)
- QB12: Patrick Mahomes (at CAR)
- QB13: Jordan Love (vs. SF)
- QB14: Drake Maye (at MIA)
Sam Darnold | MIN (at CHI)
Are we nearing pumpkin time for Sam Darnold? He’s earned a below-average grade over the past two weeks per our QB+ grading metric, and while the fantasy box line looked fine last week (QB9, thanks in part to a sneak touchdown), the advanced numbers suggest that some regression is already taking place.
The Bears rank second in pressure rate since Week 5 (41.7% of dropbacks; league average: 34%), a strength that has given Darnold issues at times. A QB reached 14.5 fantasy points against the Bears just three times this season, and that trio of signal callers averaged 4.9 fantasy points with their legs.
Maybe Darnold can rediscover his form when December starts (Cardinals and Falcons in Weeks 13-14), but I’m not at all comfortable slotting him into one-QB lineups right now.
Tommy DeVito | NYG (vs. TB)
Tommy DeVito takes over for Daniel Jones this week, so you’re going to need to get used to seeing screen grabs of family and agents. This change brings a level of uncertainty to an unappealing situation, and that means fantasy managers need to be on high alert.
Do I think this move changes anything in New York? I don’t, but I don’t know that. With Jones under center, we knew nothing was going to change. DeVito has thrown multiple touchdown passes in two of his three career games with over 25 pass attempts, so that’s something.
Realistically, I’m not changing anything Giants-based for Week 12. I’m still not starting their QB, playing Tyrone Tracy Jr. as an RB2, and hoping that strong volume gets Malik Nabers to a top-15 finish.
Tua Tagovailoa | MIA (vs. NE)
Tua Tagovailoa has completed 77.7% of his passes in four starts back (concussion), but the fantasy points have yet to pile up.
- Week 8: QB20
- Week 9: QB17
- Week 10: QB22
- Week 11: QB10
The issue with Tagovailoa is that he needs to be nearly perfect to return strong fantasy numbers, something that is a tough ask with Tyreek Hill operating at less than full strength and Jaylen Waddle struggling.
The Patriots’ defense isn’t elite, but they do limit opponent efficiency to the slot (67% complete, sixth lowest), meaning Tagovailoa can’t be penciled in for much in the way of “easy” points. That’s not to say that he can’t connect for a few big plays, but with his average depth of throw down 26.3% from a season ago, counting on it is dangerous.
I have a pretty clear top 10 this week followed by a tier that extends from QB11 through QB16, and that is where Tagovailoa resides for this divisional battle.
Will Levis | TEN (at HOU)
Will Levis averaged a career-high 9.5 yards per pass on Sunday against the Vikings (topping his 9.3 YPA in Week 11 last season — consider this your reminder to bet on Levis in Week 11s), but let’s not go overboard.
The counting numbers from last week look fine, but they were greatly inflated by the 98-yard touchdown to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. For the season, Levis has as many touchdown passes as interceptions (eight). While there is some mobility in his profile, he’s been held under 20 yards on the ground in four of his past five games.
This Texans defense on short rest doesn’t scare me. Levis’ inconsistencies, however, do, and that keeps him easily outside of the streaming radar — even with six teams on a bye.