The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the New York Giants in Week 12. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Bucs and Giants skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 12 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Start-Sit Advice
Baker Mayfield, QB
If we are going to complain about the rash of receiver injuries this season, we have to give their offenses a bump when they return. So with Mike Evans (hamstring) expected back for this contest, I have Baker Mayfield ranked as a fantasy starter this weekend.
Mayfield’s yards per attempt have declined in four straight games, but didn’t I see C.J. Stroud struggle following the Nico Collins injury and Patrick Mahomes’ numbers look different without Rashee Rice?
Since the start of 2023, 10.5% of Mayfield’s passes thrown to Evans have resulted in scores, a rate that more than doubles his number to all other Buccaneers (4.7%).
The Giants boast a top-10 defense in terms of pressure rate, a strength that Mayfield is capable of undoing, given that he is averaging a respectable 3.1 rushing fantasy points per game.
Tampa Bay is a road favorite in this spot and should flirt with 30 points. If that’s the case, Mayfield likely finishes Week 12 as a top-10 signal-caller, which is how I have it ranked.
Bucky Irving, RB
The Buccaneers refuse to fully commit to one back, which is hurting the projections for both. Bucky Irving seems to have the slight edge, but with a sub-50% snap share in four straight, the floor is low no matter what you think of the talent.
I’m in. At least for this week.
Irving has as many 10+ yard runs as carries that have failed to gain yardage this season, making him the preferred option to Rachaad White in a traditional run game in which Tampa Bay is a road favorite.
The rookie has shown nice versatility (92.9% catch rate with multiple receptions in six straight), and that’s enough to earn him an RB2 grade from me this weekend, even without the promise of volume.
Rachaad White, RB
There’s no denying that Rachaad White’s skill set is limited, but “limited” doesn’t mean useless.
White has seen at least six targets in three of his past four games and has found paydirt five times in that span. That said, his profile certainly carries a significant amount of risk.
White hasn’t had more than 10 carries in a game since the season-opening win over the Commanders, and his boom/bust rate (percentage difference in carries gaining at least 10 yards compared to the rate of runs that fail to gain yardage) is an ugly 21.3%.
This season, only 5% of White’s runs have picked up 10 yards. And in a game where Tampa Bay should be playing with a lead, Bucky Irving is the direction I prefer to go in this backfield if given the opportunity.
White is a viable Flex option in full-PPR formats, but if the game script works away from him, a single-digit performance is very possible.
Jalen McMillan, WR
Jalen McMillan is battling a hamstring injury that labeled him as a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option in Week 10 before the bye (active, zero snaps), a situation that deserves monitoring in deeper formats.
On the surface, his 15 targets over his past two healthy games look good, but those were high-volume games for the offense as a whole. For the season, McMillan’s 13.1% on-field target share this season (0.65 yards per route) is simply not going to cut it.
That said, the Giants are the worst defense in the league in terms of opponent deep pass completion percentage, a vulnerability that an athletic profile like McMillan’s with a 14.2-yard aDOT can exploit. I don’t think we are looking at more than a handful of targets, but there’s a reasonable path to double-digit PPR points; that risk/reward math works out for managers in large leagues or with depth issues.
Mike Evans, WR
Rashod Bateman, Jameson Williams, Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, KhaDarel Hodge, Ricky Pearsall, Deebo Samuel Sr., George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, Christian McCaffrey, Foster Moreau, Juwan Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Brian Robinson Jr., Josh Reynolds, Saquon Barkley, Grant Calcaterra, Chris Godwin, Ryan Miller, Sean Tucker, Rachaad White, Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard, and Cade Otton.
What is that you ask?
It’s the list of all of the players with a catch gaining more than 25 yards in a Buccaneers game this season. Read through it again. Mike Evans’ name is not on that list.
That feels almost impossible, but with no more than three catches in four of his past six games, it makes some sense. Touchdowns have largely bailed you out, and while his track record suggests that he’s going to score more often than not (100 TD grabs in 161 career games), it’s worth being aware of the limitations, especially coming off of the hamstring injury.
Remember in 2022 when Evans entered the final week of the season needing 83 receiving yards to keep his 1,000-yard streak going and Tampa Bay funneled the offense his way (10-207-3 against the Panthers)?
He needs to average 95 yards per game the rest of the way to get there this season. So there’s that narrative to chance as we come down the stretch, but I tend to be on the more pessimistic side when it comes to this 31-year-old’s profile.
Cade Otton, TE
Cade Otton has a touchdown or 8+ targets in five straight games and has proven to be a cheat code for anyone who scooped him off of the waiver wire when Tampa Bay suffered its rash of injuries.
Good work!
You’ve earned wins over the past month because of your savvy, but might the savvy play now be to move on?
With Mike Evans on the field, 2024:
- 0.95 yards per route
- 14.8% on-field target hare
- 4.1 aDOT
Without Evans on the field, 2024:
- 1.69 yards per route
- 22% on-field target share
- 6.6 aDOT
Evans is expected to return coming out of the bye, and with the Bucs entering as a road favorite, could we be looking at a lower-volume game in terms of pass attempts?
With six teams on a bye, there aren’t a ton of options at the tight end position to pivot to; that is why Otton remains a fringe starter for me, but I’m not at all interested in going this direction in DFS formats.
New York Giants Start-Sit Advice
Tommy DeVito, QB
Tommy DeVito takes over for Daniel Jones this week, so you’re going to need to get used to seeing screen grabs of family and agents. This change brings a level of uncertainty to an unappealing situation, and that means fantasy managers need to be on high alert.
Do I think this move changes anything in New York? I don’t, but I don’t know that. With Jones under center, we knew nothing was going to change. DeVito has thrown multiple touchdown passes in two of his three career games with over 25 pass attempts, so that’s something.
Realistically, I’m not changing anything Giants-based for Week 12. I’m still not starting their QB, playing Tyrone Tracy Jr. as an RB2, and hoping that strong volume gets Malik Nabers to a top-15 finish.
Devin Singletary, RB
I understand if you’re holding onto Devin Singletary with the thought being that he is one injury away from a 15-touch role. That’s fine, but if you’re lumping him in as a part of your Flex conversation, you’re too optimistic for my liking.
Singletary has been on the field for under 36% of New York’s offensive snaps in all four games back from injury, and the passing-game role that we saw early (43 receiving yards in Week 3 in Cleveland) is all but gone (34 receiving yards since).
I think it’s more likely that the Giant’s backfield has zero viable assets than juggles two. For that reason, cutting ties with the backup is on the table should you need immediate help.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB
Tyrone Tracy Jr. has 107 carries for 545 yards and three scores this season — Saquon Barkley had 508 yards and five touchdowns on his first 107 carries for the Giants.
That’s just number-bending magic, and no, I don’t think this kid is Barkley 2.0, but he’s been that level of impressive. I also make that comparison to alert you that the bottom can fall out. Remember way back in 2023 when this offense was so prohibitive that Barkley averaged a career-low 3.9 yards per carry?
You just need to come down the stretch with your eyes wide open. Tracy played a season-high 79.5% of the offensive snaps in Week 10 against the Panthers (18 carries for 103 yards) and has multiple red-zone touches in three straight.
There’s an inherent risk that comes with being a part of this offense. The Bucs’ defense has plenty of holes, but in the two weeks before the bye, it held San Francisco and Kansas City to 199 yards on 57 carries (3.49 yards per rush).
Darius Slayton, WR
A concussion forced Darius Slayton to miss Week 10 prior to the Week 11 bye. The hope is that he will be able to return to action this week (Jalin Hyatt turned in a four-catch, 39-yard performance in his stead), but Slayton is not a name you need to consider for annual or DFS leagues as long as Malik Nabers is healthy.
With the Giants making a change under center, I suppose anything is possible. But until proven otherwise, I’m OK with assuming that this offense is a dumpster fire. If I’m wrong, we can circle back next week and address the staying power of a second receiver in Tommy DeVito’s world.
Malik Nabers, WR
This is a lost season for the Giants, and is it at least possible to wonder if they are babying their WR1 for years to come? Malik Nabers’ efficiency and volume have dipped since missing a pair of games (concussion), something that very much has my eye.
- Weeks 1-4: 34.4% on-field target share, 1.76 points per target
- Weeks 7-10: 28.6% on-field target share, 1.15 points per target
I think this matchup could rectify that; if it doesn’t, we might have a major problem heading into the most important part of the fantasy season. The Bucs have allowed north of 22 points to a receiver five times this season and over 12.5 PPR points 14 times in their 10 games.
This matchup helps supplement a floor normally lacking due to New York owning the worst red-zone offense in the league, turning just 39.3% of its trips inside the 20-yard line into six points. You’re starting Nabers every week, but your confidence in doing so very much hangs in the balance this weekend.
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR
At this point, we know who Wan’Dale Robinson is and you know if what he offers is a fit for your specific situation.
Robinson has hauled in at least five passes in seven of his past eight games. You need the volume because the yardage total is never going to carry you (he hasn’t hit 55 yards in a game since September).
The scoring equity is never where we want it, and the lack of a ceiling makes him unappealing in anything but perfect spots, but could this be one of those unique spots?
The Buccaneers allow opponents to complete the second-highest percentage of passes when throwing to the slot but are a top-10 unit when it comes to perimeter efficiency. If you’re ever going to play Robinson, this is as good a spot as you’re going to find yourself, and that has him flirting with my top 30 in PPR formats for Week 12.