The New England Patriots will face the Miami Dolphins in Week 12. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Patriots and Dolphins skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 12 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
New England Patriots Start-Sit Advice
Drake Maye, QB
Since Drake Maye took over in Week 6, there’s a three-way tie atop the league in terms of games with at least 18 rushing yards and a passing score. Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Maye all have five such games.
Is that a cherry-picked stat to fit my needs? It sure is, but the point remains that we are looking at a player that is more impactful in fantasy wins and losses than real-life results at this point.
Any rookie is going to come with a wide range of weekly outcomes, and Maye is no exception. That risk is built into my QB14 ranking, as I expect it to be an aggressive script against the only defense in the NFL yet to intercept a deep pass.
Miami also owns the fourth-lowest sack rate, meaning we could get a glimpse of Maye’s upside as a passer. Could this be the week we see it all come together for the third overall pick?
I’m not projecting him as a starter, but I’m not ruling it out, and I will have some shares in the DFS streets.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
Rhamondre Stevenson has been a top-20 running back in three of the past four weeks and was productive in the Week 5 loss to these Dolphins (12 carries for 89 yards and a touchdown). It should be noted that the first meeting was a much anticipated Jacoby Brissett vs. Tyler Huntley showdown, giving it little predictive power in terms of game flow.
It’s been a mess efficiency-wise for Stevenson since the strong showing (77 carries for 229 yards, 2.97 yards per carry), as he has struggled to rip off the chunk plays. In those five games, New England’s bell cow doesn’t have 15-yard gain, making him a volume-reliant back.
That’s a dangerous role in a game where his team is a touchdown underdog and facing the best run defense in terms of yards per carry allowed to running backs before contact (13.3% fewer than any other defense).
I have my concerns, though I can’t overlook the projectable volume. I have Stevenson ranked as RB19, just ahead of Kareem Hunt and Bucky Irving, two running backs in good spots but with more competition for work.
DeMario Douglas, WR
DeMario Douglas has earned 21 targets so far in November, but he feels an awful lot like a short version of Patriot Jakobi Meyers. And with a rookie QB, that’s a problem.
Douglas has scored just once in 25 NFL games (93 catches, 139 targets). But while his volume in the short passing game seems safe, 9.4 yards per catch tells me that either Douglas isn’t as good with the ball in his hands as this team thinks or that Drake Maye is struggling to place the ball in optimal RAC spots.
The Patriots carry with them an implied total of under 20 this week (and most weeks), which suppresses my projections for this offense as a whole. Douglas is my clear favorite in New England’s passing game, but I’d rather take my chances on a pair of rookies (Rome Odunze and Jalen Coker) in the Flex range, and I’d play actual Jakobi Meyers (even in a tough spot against the Broncos) ahead of him.
Kendrick Bourne, WR
Kendrick Bourne caught all five of his targets for a team-high 70 yards last week, a production line that featured a touchdown grab on the second drive of the game. Anytime you get a big point total on your bench (or waiver wire) it’s frustrating, but chasing a 13.2% target share in an offense led by an inconsistent rookie QB is playing with fire.
Patriots WR snap shares, Week 11:
- Kayshon Boutte: 95.9%
- DeMario Douglas: 57.5%
- Bourne: 47.9%
- Ja’Lynn Polk: 39.7%
With the Patriots ranking 19th in percentage of snaps with three receivers on the field (58.8%; NFL average: 61.9%), I’m having a hard time envisioning time penciling in Bourne for anything close to consistent value.
That’s not to dismiss him outright, I’m not doing that. Much like the battle for the WR2 role in Green Bay, any of these guys could lead New England in targets in a given week. From a projection standpoint, however, none of them are going to grade out strong enough for me to recommend as a Flex option.
Hunter Henry, TE
Hunter Henry has at least five catches in four of his past five games. While the quality of those receptions is very much in question (one touchdown this season, seven games without a catch gaining more than 15 yards), volume talks at the back end of the tight end rankings.
The Dolphins’ blitz rate has fallen off a cliff over the past two weeks, which could result in clean releases for a YAC threat like Henry. Austin Hooper’s presence continues to be annoying (4+ targets in four of his past five games), but with Henry being targeted on 35.1% of his red-zone routes in November, I think there’s enough potential to make him a top-10 TE option in a week where New England may abandon the run early on.
Miami Dolphins Start-Sit Advice
Tua Tagovailoa, QB
Tua Tagovailoa has completed 77.7% of his passes in four starts back (concussion), but the fantasy points have yet to pile up.
- Week 8: QB20
- Week 9: QB17
- Week 10: QB22
- Week 11: QB10
The issue with Tagovailoa is that he needs to be nearly perfect to return strong fantasy numbers, something that is a tough ask with Tyreek Hill operating at less than full strength and Jaylen Waddle struggling.
The Patriots’ defense isn’t elite, but they do limit opponent efficiency to the slot (67% complete, sixth lowest), meaning Tagovailoa can’t be penciled in for much in the way of “easy” points. That’s not to say that he can’t connect for a few big plays, but with his average depth of throw down 26.3% from a season ago, counting on it is dangerous.
I have a pretty clear top 10 this week followed by a tier that extends from QB11 through QB16, and that is where Tagovailoa resides for this divisional battle.
De’Von Achane, RB
Over the summer, we allowed ourselves to dream about what a featured version of De’Von Achane looks like, and that seems to be coming to fruition now. Miami hasn’t been shy about featuring its explosive second-year back since Tua Tagovailoa returned, and in those games, how he is being utilized is nothing short of elite.
Last week against the Raiders, he got a carry from inside the five-yard line and outraced the defense to the pylon. No surprise there given his high-end acceleration, and in addition to getting the between-the-20s work, he’s turned into one of the most feared and efficient pass-catching backs in the game (23 catches on 25 targets in those four contests).
You should have zero reservations about Achane. None. He’s positioning to be a league-winning type of asset in redraft formats, has a strong outlook for dynasty managers, and in DFS circles, he could well lead all Flex players in points this weekend against a Patriots defense that allows the seventh most yards per carry before contact to the position.
Your fantasy team is in good hands with Achane at the controls, you just have to make the right decisions around him to ensure that your team succeeds at a high level.
Jaylen Wright, RB
The ‘Fins have clearly committed to De’Von Achane and I think managers with Jaylen Wright should be happy with this development.
The rookie is unlikely to hold stand-alone value regardless, and a commitment to Achane removes the temptation to play a low-opportunity Wright in your Flex spot
Dolphins RB snap shares, Week 11:
- Achane: 65.8%
- Wright: 21.4%
- Raheem Mostert: 14.5%
Wright was drafted as Achane’s insurance, and given these snap counts, he’s best positioned to move into the RB2 tier if the starting back were to get hurt. The Patriots allow 2.9 running back carries per game of 10+ yards, the fifth most in the league, making Wright an interesting DFS punt play if you’re trying to catch lightning in a bottle.
Raheem Mostert, RB
Don’t you hate it when “rock bottom” isn’t actually rock bottom?
Raheem Mostert didn’t record a single carry against the Rams in Week 10, a disappointing week that he followed up with three carries … for negative two yards.
With no targets in Week 11, you have every reason to cut Mostert. This team has committed to the upside that De’Von Achane brings to the table, and they are exploring with Jaylen Wright at times, leaving little meat on the bone for the veteran back.
If you need to trim the fat on your roster for immediate help, Mostert can be let go. I wouldn’t cut him just for the same of doing it as he’s only an injury away from a reasonable projection, but don’t feel committed to keeping him if you’re in desperation mode.
Jaylen Waddle, WR
Jaylen Waddle displayed a nice connection with Tua Tagovailoa for a moment last week, a glimmer of hope. While his QB was busy pulling off a Houdini act to get free from the pass rush, Waddle uncovered and opened himself up for a 24-yard gain.
That’s what we thought we’d get more of when we drafted Waddle this summer, but it was just a flash in the pan in Week 11 — that was half of his catch total for the game.
Helping the team doesn’t always show up in the fantasy box score (Waddle forced a defensive pass interference with under four minutes left to convert a third down with the game on the line).
Waddle isn’t close to the asset we signed up for this summer, but I also think he’s better than what we’ve seen in Tagovailoa’s four games back (33.8 receiving yards per game). I have him hovering around WR30 this week — in the Jerry Jeudy and Wan’Dale Robinson tier.
The Patriots allow 33.3% of red-zone passes to result in touchdowns, the fourth-highest rate in the league, giving me increased optimism that Waddle can reward those who elect to Flex him this weekend.
Tyreek Hill, WR
If you can’t feel the Tyreek Hill explosion week coming, I’m not sure we can be friends. Over the past three weeks, he ranks eighth of 42 qualifiers in production over expectation and third in EPA per target. The play on the field backs up the data — his touchdown last week came on a Tua Tagovailoa scramble drill where we saw some of the non-verbal communication between the two that has made them such a potent tandem in the past.
He draws a New England defense that allowed him to account for one-third of Miami’s receptions in Week 5 (a Tyler Huntley start) and one that coughed up touchdowns to him in both meetings a season ago.
I think you’ll be rewarded for your patience with Hill for the final month-plus of the season, and it could well mean rostering fantasy’s top receiver in Week 12.
Jonnu Smith, TE
We were confident that the AFC East would provide us with one fantasy difference-maker at the TE position. Is Jonnu Smith now that player?
The veteran is one of two at the position this season with multiple games of 90 receiving yards and a TD catch (other: Brock Bowers).
While I don’t think 6-101-2 stat lines like last week against the Raiders are going to be the norm (a 57-yard touchdown in which he was left completely uncovered helped), with 6+ targets in five of his past six games, there’s enough of a floor in Smith’s profile to consider him a TE1 moving forward.
Even if you don’t want to bet on a 29-year-old who has never earned looks at a high rate (zero seasons with more than 50 receptions), the gravity of the offense around him has me sold. With speed going in every direction as a part of this motion-centric Miami offense, Smith’s role is advantageous in valuable spots.
The Patriots are often attacked deep downfield (fifth-highest opponent average depth of throw), and if the Dolphins look to execute that plan with their burners extending the field, another 5-6 catch projection makes sense to me.
That’s enough to slide Smith into my top 12 tight ends.