The Miami Dolphins most certainly do not control their own playoff destiny.
They already have six losses. There are seven teams in the AFC with no more than five.
So as the Miami Dolphins’ playoff picture continues to sharpen at the edges, here’s a look at how they can help themselves (and have others help them) in Week 12.
Miami Dolphins Playoff Chances Entering Week 12
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ shock loss to the Cleveland Browns on Thursday had a marginal impact on the Dolphins (4-6), simply because Miami is so far behind Mike Tomlin’s team, which still leads the AFC North at 8-3.
Entering Week 12, the Dolphins had a 24.2% chance of reaching the postseason, per the PFN Playoff Predictor. After the Browns’ win, it inched all the way up to … 24.6%.
The general narrative has been the same for weeks: If the Dolphins get in, it will almost certainly be as a Wild Card, and very likely as the seventh seed.
The Buffalo Bills (9-2) are running away with the AFC East and have a 98.9% chance to win it entering Sunday’s action, per PFN’s metric. That almost certainly means no home playoff game again at Hard Rock. If the Dolphins make the playoffs for the third straight year, they’ll have to be road warriors.
The Dolphins have a 2.5% chance of earning the No. 5 seed, a 7% chance of earning the No. 6 seed, and a 14% chance of earning the No. 7 seed.
Miami Dolphins Fan Guide to Week 12
Of course, the Dolphins absolutely positively cannot lose to the New England Patriots (3-8) on Sunday. And odds are that they won’t.
The Dolphins as of Friday were 7.5-point home favorites after covering a similar spread in a Week 11 win over the Las Vegas Raiders. They were -360 to win outright; the Patriots’ moneyline, meanwhile, was +285. The over/under stood at 46.
Beyond taking care of their own business, there are three games that could meaningfully impact the Dolphins’ chances:
- Detroit Lions (9-1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (5-6)
- Denver Broncos (6-5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (2-8)
- And Baltimore Ravens (7-4) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3)
The first two games are no-brainers: The Dolphins trail both the Broncos (currently the seventh seed) and the Colts (eighth).
With a Miami win and losses by both Denver and Indianapolis, Mike McDaniel’s club would enter Week 13 as the eighth seed and a half-game behind the Broncos for the final Wild Card spot.
What about the other game? That’s a bit trickier.
The Chargers (currently the fifth seed) and Ravens (sixth seed) are both overwhelming favorites to reach the playoffs (86.2% and 96.1%, respectively), so it’s a long shot that the Dolphins could catch either.
But even though the Chargers have a better record and an easier remaining strength of schedule, it’s slightly better for Miami if the Ravens win, according to PFN’s advanced metrics.
If the Dolphins and Chargers both win, the Dolphins’ playoff chances still improve over the week before, but just slightly (27%).
But if the Dolphins and Ravens both win, it goes to 30%.
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Preview
The 119th meeting of Patriots-Dolphins will be the first meeting between Tua Tagovailoa (the No. 5 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft) and Drake Maye (the No. 3 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft).
Maye looks to buck a brutal recent history. The Dolphins have won seven of eight against the Patriots, including a 15-10 result in Week 6 in which Miami rushed for 193 yards on 41 attempts.
But since getting smoked by the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 7, the Patriots have gone 2-2, with three of those games decided by a single possession.
The Dolphins are also trending in the right direction, particularly on offense. Since Tagovailoa returned from injured reserve in Week 8, they’re third in the NFL in EPA per play (.189).
In that span, the Dolphins have scored on 21 of 31 non-end-of-half drives, with 10 of those 21 scoring possessions stretching 10 or more plays.
Want a sense of the difference Tua makes to Miami’s offense? In the 251 snaps this year that Tagoaviloa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle have all been on the field at the same time, the Dolphins’ EPA per play is 0.15. When Waddle and Hill have been on the field with any quarterback other than Tua this year, their EPA plummets to -0.28.
In fact, they were better off having neither Waddle nor Hill on the field when Tua was hurt (their EPA per play in that situation was -0.04) than both of them, which makes sense, because they were effectively only a power-running team during that stretch.
The Patriots’ defense has actually regressed since that Week 5 meeting. New England was 23rd in defensive EPA per play in the season’s first five weeks (0.059). It’s been 0.091 in the six weeks since (25th).