The Minnesota Vikings will face the Chicago Bears in Week 12. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Vikings skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 12 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Sam Darnold, QB
Are we nearing pumpkin time for Sam Darnold? He’s earned a below-average grade over the past two weeks per our QB+ grading metric, and while the fantasy box line looked fine last week (QB9, thanks in part to a sneak touchdown), the advanced numbers suggest that some regression is already taking place.
The Bears rank second in pressure rate since Week 5 (41.7% of dropbacks; league average: 34%), a strength that has given Darnold issues at times. A QB reached 14.5 fantasy points against the Bears just three times this season, and that trio of signal callers averaged 4.9 fantasy points with their legs.
Maybe Darnold can rediscover his form when December starts (Cardinals and Falcons in Weeks 13-14), but I’m not at all comfortable slotting him into one-QB lineups right now.
Aaron Jones, RB
It took some time, but the preseason fades of Aaron Jones seem to be coming to fruition. The veteran back has now gone four straight games without a 15-yard rush or a score on the ground (72 attempts), fueling production that sits 32.2% below expectation over that stretch.
Jones had a chance to score last week but couldn’t cash in from the 1-yard line, a drive Sam Darnold ultimately finished with a sneak.
This could be viewed as a get-right spot, as the Bears allow the fifth-most yards per carry to opposing running backs this season (4.9). Plus, the Vikings figure to be playing with a lead, which I don’t disagree with.
Minnesota does, however, continue to flirt with Cam Akers (he handled an entire first-half drive last week and scored in the third quarter). And with this offense more grounded of late (19 points per game over their past four), any semblance of a committee situation could render all involved useless.
With six teams on a bye this week, Jones grades as an RB2 for me this week and is a viable starter. However, I’d be nervous for the stretch run if I’m counting on him consistently (not a top-25 RB in three of his past four games), even with a reasonably light schedule ahead.
Cam Akers, RB
Cam Akers hasn’t been efficient of late (23 carries for 63 yards over the past two weeks), but he does have a 10+ yard run in three straight and added a three-yard touchdown catch last week against the Titans — his first trip to the end zone since being traded.
I’m not here to tell you that Akers holds standalone value (I’m not positive that the starter in Minnesota holds significant value right now), but if you want to bet against Aaron Jones coming down the stretch of the season — a stance I took on draft day and remain committed to — Akers is the path to do so.
- Week 13 vs. Cardinals
- Week 14 vs. Falcons
- Week 15 vs. Bears
- Week 16 at Seahawks
- Week 17 vs. Packers
Nothing in that closing schedule scares me. I’d have Akers ranked as a top-20 running back if something were to happen to Jones, which is why he deserves to be rostered, even if there is no immediate utility.
Jordan Addison, WR
Cramps resulted in Jordan Addison departing Minnesota’s Week 11 win early, though the hope is that the second-year receiver will be fine entering this weekend. He was able to get you paid last week courtesy of a 47-yard score in the first quarter — stop me if you’ve heard that before.
For his career, over 44% of Addison’s PPR fantasy points have come on touchdowns. That’s not the most stable of profiles, but in this spot, assuming health, I have no issue if you want to go back to him as a Flex option.
This season, the Bears own the fourth-highest opponent average depth of receiver target this season; defenses are looking to challenge them vertically, and we know Addison is more than capable of doing just that. As long as you acknowledge the risk involved, this is a spot you can justify rolling the dice, be it in DFS or season-long.
Justin Jefferson, WR
The downward pointing arrow on Sam Darnold is less than ideal, and if you want to drop Justin Jefferson from WR2 to WR8, be my guest — it doesn’t really matter. He hasn’t scored in four straight games (and in five of six after scoring in all four September games), but with full health and eight straight games with at least eight targets, there’s no action that needs to be taken.
Jefferson has a reception of 25+ yards in nine of 10 games and is as good a bet as there is in the NFL to take your breath away with a single play. I’m electing to pay up for star running backs in DFS this week, so that’s how I’m fading Minnesota’s star this weekend.
T.J. Hockenson, TE
That’s now two dud performances in three weeks back from injury for T.J. Hockenson. And while I still think there’s a role to be had here, I can’t help but be nervous that he’s not being extended.
- Week 9 vs. Colts: 45.1% snap share
- Week 10 at Jaguars: 46.3% snap share
- Week 11 at Titans: 44.8% snap share
Is it possible that Hockenson missed the peaks of the Sam Darnold roller coaster and is joining the ride at the worst possible time? It’s possible, though I don’t think what we saw over the weekend is sustainable.
In the win over the Titans, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison saw the majority of targets with the remaining 46.7% being spread pretty evenly among eight Vikings players. That’s how you get to a 10% target share for one of the better players at his position in the league.
I don’t think Addison earns looks at the rate we saw on Sunday, and I find it unlikely that we get that little target clarity again.
In leagues with a deadline coming up and a team in good shape, I’d be circling a desperate Hockenson manager and trying to poach him (the bye week is in the rearview and the remaining schedule can be navigated).