As we move deeper into the second half of the 2024 NFL season, the postseason starts to come into view. The Washington Commanders were projected to finish last in the NFC East but find themselves in the mix for the division crown.
However, they took a slight step back in Week 12 after losing to the Cowboys. Let’s examine the Commanders’ playoff odds and various scenarios.
Can the Commanders Make the Playoffs?
Heading into Week 13, the Washington Commanders are 7-5 and now have a 56.2% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a 0.2% chance for the 1 seed, a 5.3% chance for the second seed, a 2.0% chance for the third seed, a 0.3% chance for the fourth seed, a 2.7% chance for the fifth seed, a 12.2% chance for the sixth seed, and a 33.5% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Commanders Win the NFC East?
Here’s what the NFC East race looks like after all the action in Week 12:
- The Philadelphia Eagles have a 92.1% chance to win the NFC East.
- The Washington Commanders have a 7.8% chance to win the NFC East.
- The Dallas Cowboys have a <0.1% chance to win the NFC East.
- The New York Giants have a <0.1% chance to win the NFC East.
Current NFC East Standings
- Philadelphia Eagles (9-2)
- Washington Commanders (7-5)
- Dallas Cowboys (4-7)
- New York Giants (2-9)
NFC Playoff Race | Week 16
1. Detroit Lions (13-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)
3. Los Angeles Rams (9-6)
4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (11-4)
7. Washington Commanders (10-5)
In The Hunt
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
9. Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Eliminated From Playoffs
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
11. Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-10)
14. Chicago Bears (4-11)
15. Carolina Panthers (4-11)
16. New York Giants (2-13)
Commanders’ Super Bowl Chances in Week 12
Can the Commanders win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Washington has a 2.3% chance to win it all.
Commanders’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 13: vs. Tennessee Titans
- Week 14: BYE
- Week 15: at New Orleans Saints
- Week 16: vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 17: vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Week 18: at Dallas Cowboys
What PFN Predicted for the Cowboys vs. Commanders Matchup
Cooper Rush played better against the Texans on Monday night, but it was a very low bar. Either way, the Cowboys are playing out a lost season. Their plan certainly wasn’t to have Rush attempt 55 passes, but when your backfield consists of Rico Dowdle, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, and Deuce Vaughn, what exactly are the choices?
It’s difficult to see how this game will be competitive. The Commanders have lost two straight but are coming off an extended rest, having played on Thursday night in Week 11. Jayden Daniels hasn’t been running as much but should feel much better this week, as he further gets over his rib injury.
Since Dak Prescott went down, Rush has started two games. The Cowboys have scored 16 total points, scoring one touchdown. Even that touchdown was mostly a fluke, with the Texans’ safety botching the coverage, allowing Kavontae Turpin to take an eight-yard slant for all of the yards.
Last year’s Commanders had one of the worst pass defenses in NFL history. This year’s version has been far better, allowing just 184.9 passing yards per game.
How will the Commanders beat the Cowboys this week? However they want. They’re 24th in defensive EPA per dropback and 30th in defensive rush success rate. Look for Brian Robinson Jr. to have his best game in weeks, possibly scoring multiple times.
Through the air, the Commanders may look to get Terry McLaurin going after he was limited to one catch against the Eagles.
With the Commanders as 10.5-point home favorites and the game carrying a 45.5-point total, it would not be a surprise to see the afternoon end with Trey Lance on the field for the Cowboys.
PFN Prediction: Commanders 31, Cowboys 13