The Kansas City Chiefs have completed their transformation into the current era’s version of the New England Patriots. Even though they don’t look like the best team in the NFL, they still find ways to win every game.
The Chiefs won their first nine games, setting themselves up for another deep playoff run. Even with their loss to the Bills in Week 11, they’re primed to make a run at becoming the first three-peat Super Bowl champions in NFL history.
But what are Kansas City’s chances of making the playoffs or winning the Super Bowl? Let’s look at all the scenarios in play after their Week 12 victory over the Carolina Panthers.
Will the Chiefs Make the Playoffs?
Heading into Week 13, the Kansas City Chiefs are 10-1 and now have a >99.9% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a 73.8% chance for the 1 seed, a 16.4% chance for the second seed, a 3.3% chance for the third seed, a <0.1% chance for the fourth seed, a 5.1% chance for the fifth seed, a 1.1% chance for the sixth seed, and a 0.2% chance for the seventh seed.
Will the Chiefs Win the AFC West?
Here’s what the AFC West race looks like after all the action in Week 12:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have a 93.5% chance to win the AFC West.
- The Denver Broncos have a 2.4% chance to win the AFC West.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have a 4.1% chance to win the AFC West.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have a <0.1% chance to win the AFC West.
Current AFC West Standings
- Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)
- Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
- Denver Broncos (7-5)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-9)
AFC Playoff Race | Week 17
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (12-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
4. Houston Texans (9-7)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)
7. Denver Broncos (9-6)
In The Hunt
8. Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
9. Miami Dolphins (7-8)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
11. New York Jets (4-11)
12. Cleveland Browns (3-12)
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-12)
15. Las Vegas Raiders (3-12)
16. New England Patriots (3-12)
Chiefs’ Super Bowl Chances in Week 12
Can the Chiefs win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Kansas City has a 6.5% chance to win it all.
Chiefs’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 13: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 14: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 15: at Cleveland Browns
- Week 16: vs. Houston Texans
- Week 17: at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Week 18: at Denver Broncos
What PFN Predicted for the Chiefs vs. Panthers Matchup
Here’s where the Chiefs and Panthers rank in various Pro Football Network metrics.
Kansas City Chiefs, 2024:
- Offense+ Metric: Seventh (B)
- Defense+ Metric: 12th (C+)
- Patrick Mahomes QB+ Metric: 10th (B)
Carolina Panthers, 2024:
- Offense+ Metric: 27th (D)
- Defense+ Metric: 32nd (F)
- Bryce Young QB+ Metric: 38th (F)
On paper, the Chiefs should win this game in a blowout.
Kansas City is better in all three phases, and it could be motivated after last Sunday’s loss to the Buffalo Bills. Plus, you obviously can’t pick Young to beat Mahomes.
However, this might be a sneaky-good spot for the Panthers, depending on how you view it. The Chiefs could fall into a trap game after watching their perfect season end last weekend, and Carolina will be looking for its best win in recent memory. And we’re still talking about a Chiefs offense that hasn’t topped 30 points in a single game this season.
As for Young, he’s been decent since sliding back into the starting role in Week 8. In the last three games, the 2023 first-overall pick completed 62.5% of his passes for 521 yards and four TDs along with three interceptions and four sacks.
No, those aren’t great numbers. But the per-game yardage and touchdown averages are up from Young’s career rates, while the sacks-per-game average is lower. Young’s PFN QB+ Metric Grade in Week 9 (C) is the second-highest single-game grade for his career.
So, there’s been some progress, albeit incremental. Most importantly, the Panthers won their last two games.
With all that said, we’re talking about the Chiefs and Panthers. This game could be close for a while, as the Chiefs are vulnerable, but in the end, Kansas City will win by multiple scores.
PFN Prediction: Chiefs 34, Panthers 17