The Detroit Lions are on an eight-game win streak after an absolutely dominant performance against the Jaguars. At 10-1, the Lions are in the driver’s seat for both the NFC North crown and home-field advantage.
After beating the Colts in Week 12, what are the Lions’ chances of landing the top seed in the NFC and ensuring the road to Super Bowl 58 goes through Detroit? Let’s take a closer look.
Will the Lions Make the Playoffs?
Heading into Week 13, the Detroit Lions are 10-1 and now have a 99.7% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a 57.4% chance for the 1 seed, a 10.1% chance for the second seed, a 0.9% chance for the third seed, a <0.1% chance for the fourth seed, a 25.5% chance for the fifth seed, a 5.0% chance for the sixth seed, and a 0.9% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Lions Win the NFC North?
Here’s what the NFC North race looks like after all the action in Week 12:
- The Detroit Lions have a 68.4% chance to win the NFC North.
- The Minnesota Vikings have a 20.7% chance to win the NFC North.
- The Green Bay Packers have a 10.9% chance to win the NFC North.
- The Chicago Bears have a <0.1% chance to win the NFC North.
Current NFC North Standings
- Detroit Lions (10-1)
- Minnesota Vikings (9-2)
- Green Bay Packers (8-3)
- Chicago Bears (4-7)
NFC Playoff Race | Week 16
1. Detroit Lions (13-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)
3. Los Angeles Rams (9-6)
4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (11-4)
7. Washington Commanders (10-5)
In The Hunt
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
9. Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Eliminated From Playoffs
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
11. Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-10)
14. Chicago Bears (4-11)
15. Carolina Panthers (4-11)
16. New York Giants (2-13)
Lions’ Super Bowl Chances in Week 12
Can the Lions win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Detroit has a 36.9% chance to win it all.
Lions’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 13: vs. Chicago Bears
- Week 14: vs. Green Bay Packers
- Week 15: vs. Buffalo Bills
- Week 16: at Chicago Bears
- Week 17: at San Francisco 49ers
- Week 18: vs. Minnesota Vikings
What PFN Predicted for the Lions vs. Colts Matchup
The Detroit Lions are unanimously considered the NFL’s best team after Week 11, when Dan Campbell’s club destroyed the Jaguars 52-6, then watched the previously undefeated Chiefs lose their first game to the Bills.
Detroit’s only loss — a Week 2 defeat to the Buccaneers — feels like eons ago. They’ve won every game since, crossing 40 points in four of eight weeks.
Sure, not every win has been a cakewalk. Jared Goff threw five interceptions against the Texans in Week 10, necessitating a second-half comeback. But the Lions rank No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 2 in defensive efficiency. No other team in the league has two top-five units; only the Bills and 49ers are top 10 on both sides of the ball.
Lions OC Ben Johnson, poised to be the NFL’s hottest head coaching candidate in 2025, is among the league’s best play designers. Teams that stay stagnant on defense are ripe for the picking for Detroit’s lethal scheme.
Jags DC Ryan Nielsen had played as much man coverage as any play-caller in the NFL leading into last week’s game against the Lions. He didn’t change his approach vs. Detroit, deploying man on 55.3% of Jacksonville’s snaps, the league’s second-highest rate in Week 11. Goff unsurprisingly went to town against those looks, completing 11 of 14 attempts for 200 yards and three touchdowns.
The Indianapolis Colts’ defense is also relatively stagnant. DC Gus Bradley has played the fourth-most zone coverage this season (79.6%). Drilling down further, Indy lines up in Cover 3 almost half the time (48.2%). Bradley has been unwilling to change his defensive stripes, and the Lions could have a field day, given that they know what’s coming.
On the other side of the ball, Anthony Richardson will make his second start since returning to the Colts’ lineup. The 2023 first-round pick rebounded with three total touchdowns in Week 11, but that was against a Jets defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone and has essentially given up on the season.
Detroit is still getting after opposing quarterbacks even without Aidan Hutchinson, ranking 12th in pressure rate over the past month. Meanwhile, Richardson could be playing behind an offensive line with three rookie starters for the second consecutive week.
PFN Prediction: Lions 38, Colts 17