As we move deeper into the second half of the 2024 NFL season, the postseason starts to come into view. The Indianapolis Colts were supposed to take a step forward with a new coaching staff and a full year with sophomore QB Anthony Richardson.
Instead, they’ve changed QBs multiple times, and their year could go either way. But after a loss against the Lions in Week 12, can they still make a run for the postseason?
Let’s examine the Colts’ playoff odds and various scenarios.
Can the Indianapolis Colts Make the Playoffs?
Heading into Week 13, the Indianapolis Colts are 5-7 and now have a 33.7% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a <0.1% chance for the 1 seed, a <0.1% chance for the second seed, a 0.5% chance for the third seed, a 25.4% chance for the fourth seed, a 0.3% chance for the fifth seed, a 2.1% chance for the sixth seed, and a 5.4% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Colts Win the AFC South?
Here’s what the AFC South race looks like after all the action in Week 12:
- The Houston Texans have a 69.8% chance to win the AFC South.
- The Indianapolis Colts have a 25.8% chance to win the AFC South.
- The Tennessee Titans have a 3.5% chance to win the AFC South.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have a 0.8% chance to win the AFC South.
Current AFC South Standings
- Houston Texans (7-5)
- Indianapolis Colts (5-7)
- Tennessee Titans (3-8)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9)
AFC Playoff Race | Week 17
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (12-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (10-5)
4. Houston Texans (9-6)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)
7. Denver Broncos (9-6)
In The Hunt
8. Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
9. Miami Dolphins (7-8)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
11. New York Jets (4-11)
12. Cleveland Browns (3-12)
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-12)
15. Las Vegas Raiders (3-12)
16. New England Patriots (3-12)
Colts’ Super Bowl Chances in Week 12
Can the Colts win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Indianapolis has a <0.1% chance to win it all.
Colts’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 13: at New England Patriots
- Week 14: BYE
- Week 15: at Denver Broncos
- Week 16: vs. Tennessee Titans
- Week 17: at New York Giants
- Week 18: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
What PFN Predicted for the Lions vs. Colts Matchup
The Detroit Lions are unanimously considered the NFL’s best team after Week 11, when Dan Campbell’s club destroyed the Jaguars 52-6, then watched the previously undefeated Chiefs lose their first game to the Bills.
Detroit’s only loss — a Week 2 defeat to the Buccaneers — feels like eons ago. They’ve won every game since, crossing 40 points in four of eight weeks.
Sure, not every win has been a cakewalk. Jared Goff threw five interceptions against the Texans in Week 10, necessitating a second-half comeback. But the Lions rank No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 2 in defensive efficiency. No other team in the league has two top-five units; only the Bills and 49ers are top 10 on both sides of the ball.
Lions OC Ben Johnson, poised to be the NFL’s hottest head coaching candidate in 2025, is among the league’s best play designers. Teams that stay stagnant on defense are ripe for the picking for Detroit’s lethal scheme.
Jags DC Ryan Nielsen had played as much man coverage as any play-caller in the NFL leading into last week’s game against the Lions. He didn’t change his approach vs. Detroit, deploying man on 55.3% of Jacksonville’s snaps, the league’s second-highest rate in Week 11. Goff unsurprisingly went to town against those looks, completing 11 of 14 attempts for 200 yards and three touchdowns.
The Indianapolis Colts’ defense is also relatively stagnant. DC Gus Bradley has played the fourth-most zone coverage this season (79.6%). Drilling down further, Indy lines up in Cover 3 almost half the time (48.2%). Bradley has been unwilling to change his defensive stripes, and the Lions could have a field day, given that they know what’s coming.
On the other side of the ball, Anthony Richardson will make his second start since returning to the Colts’ lineup. The 2023 first-round pick rebounded with three total touchdowns in Week 11, but that was against a Jets defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone and has essentially given up on the season.
Detroit is still getting after opposing quarterbacks even without Aidan Hutchinson, ranking 12th in pressure rate over the past month. Meanwhile, Richardson could be playing behind an offensive line with three rookie starters for the second consecutive week.
PFN Prediction: Lions 38, Colts 17