Entering this week, the Houston Texans were coming off a prime-time rebound, running away from the hapless Dallas Cowboys. And even after a recent slump, Houston remains atop the AFC South and has time to improve its standing in the AFC playoff chase.
Here’s a closer look at where the Texans fit in the AFC playoff picture after losing to the Titans in Week 12.
Can the Texans Make the Playoffs?
Heading into Week 13, the Houston Texans are 7-5 and now have a 77.1% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a <0.1% chance for the 1 seed, a 0.5% chance for the second seed, a 3.3% chance for the third seed, a 66.0% chance for the fourth seed, a 0.4% chance for the fifth seed, a 1.8% chance for the sixth seed, and a 5.1% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Texans Win the AFC South?
Here’s what the AFC South race looks like after all the action in Week 12:
- The Houston Texans have a 69.8% chance to win the AFC South.
- The Indianapolis Colts have a 25.8% chance to win the AFC South.
- The Tennessee Titans have a 3.5% chance to win the AFC South.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have a 0.8% chance to win the AFC South.
Current AFC South Standings
- Houston Texans (7-5)
- Indianapolis Colts (5-7)
- Tennessee Titans (3-8)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9)
AFC Playoff Race | Week 17
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (12-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
4. Houston Texans (9-7)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)
7. Denver Broncos (9-6)
In The Hunt
8. Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
9. Miami Dolphins (7-8)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
11. New York Jets (4-11)
12. Cleveland Browns (3-12)
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-12)
15. Las Vegas Raiders (3-12)
16. New England Patriots (3-12)
Texans’ Super Bowl Chances in Week 12
Can the Texans win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Houston has a 0.4% chance to win it all.
Texans’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 13: at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Week 14: BYE
- Week 15: vs. Miami Dolphins
- Week 16: at Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 17: vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Week 18: at Tennessee Titans
What PFN Predicted for the Titans vs. Texans Matchup
Here’s where the Titans and Texans rank in various Pro Football Network metrics.
Titans
Offense+ Metric: 31st (D-)
Defense+ Metric: 17th (C)
Will Levis QB+ Metric: 34th (D-)
Texans
Offense+ Metric: 23rd (D+)
Defense+ Metric: 8th (B)
C.J. Stroud QB+ Metric: 22nd (C-)
The Texans clearly are better than the Titans despite their underwhelming performance in the first 11 weeks. Houston is more talented on both sides of the ball, has the better quarterback, and has the better coach.
But division games are weird. These two teams know each other well, which could lead to a closer game than many would expect.
Really, though, the Titans’ defense is the only reason to give Tennessee a chance in this game.
The Titans currently rank 26th in points allowed per game (26.3). However, many of those points were given up after Tennessee’s offense committed turnovers that gave opponents favorable field positions.
You might be surprised to learn that Tennessee currently ranks second in yards allowed per game (278.0) and 11th in FTN Fantasy’s defensive DVOA. This is a solid group that’s played well despite missing star cornerback L’Jarius Sneed for the last five games. Sneed likely will sit this Sunday as well, but stud defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons will be on the field.
But can the Titans slow Stroud and the Texans? That remains to be seen.
Houston averaged just 20.25 points from Week 7 through 10, partly because it was playing with a depleted receiving corps. But with Nico Collins back in the lineup for Week 11, the Texans dropped 34 on the Dallas Cowboys, and Stroud looked more like the quarterback we’re used to seeing.
This game should be competitive, and the Titans’ defense will keep Houston’s offense from popping off. But at the end of the day, Levis and the putrid Tennessee offense won’t be able to keep up.
PFN Prediction: Texans 30, Titans 20