The NFL playoff picture is constantly evolving and shifting, which makes it one of the most intriguing in sports. However, the current playoff picture only reveals so much at this point in the season, so to help clarify the situation, our PFN NFL Playoff Predictor simulates the remaining games 10,000 times to produce playoff projections for all 32 teams.
This data is refreshed after every game or following any major trades and injuries that could impact the playoff picture.
Let’s look at the projected NFL playoff picture in each conference as of Nov. 22, 2024.
AFC
1) Kansas City Chiefs
2) Buffalo Bills
3) Pittsburgh Steelers
4) Houston Texans
5) Los Angeles Chargers
6) Baltimore Ravens
7) Denver Broncos
NFC
1) Detroit Lions
2) Philadelphia Eagles
3) Arizona Cardinals
4) Atlanta Falcons
5) Minnesota Vikings
6) Green Bay Packers
7) Washington Commanders
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Arizona Cardinals’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 6-4
- Make the Playoffs: 79.5%
- Win the Division: 73.4%
- #1 Seed: 4.5%
- Win the Super Bowl: 9.1%
The Arizona Cardinals have been on an impressive run in recent weeks. They have taken control of the NFC West coming out of their bye week on the back of a four-game winning streak. The results have not been the only positive aspect, with the Cardinals’ performances being just as impressive as the wins. They have leapfrogged inside the top 10 of our PR+ standings entering Week 12.
Entering Week 12, Arizona will face the sixth-easiest remaining schedule overall, but the makeup of the schedule is interesting. They have two games against the worst teams in the league (the Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots), but they still have four divisional games left, including a Week 18 home date with the 49ers.
Atlanta Falcons’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 6-5
- Make the Playoffs: 48.1%
- Win the Division: 46.4%
- #1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.3%
The Atlanta Falcons enter their bye week taking on water. They lost by a field goal to the Saints in Week 10 despite allowing just 14 first downs. Then, Atlanta had their doors blown off by Bo Nix in Denver (38-6), a two-game stretch that has impacted their long-term outlook in a significant way.
The Falcons’ primary goal will be the division, something that is plenty reasonable with them already sweeping Tampa Bay, not to mention games left against the Raiders, Giants, and Panthers. Their outlook is still optimistic, but the fear that this team peaked too early is certainly legitimate.
Baltimore Ravens’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 7-4
- Make the Playoffs: 96.1%
- Win the Division: 50.8%
- #1 Seed: 2.3%
- Win the Super Bowl: 9.4%
The Baltimore Ravens are in an interesting spot entering Week 12. Barring a spectacular collapse, they should make the playoffs comfortably, but exactly how they find themselves in the playoffs is very much up in the air. They took a hard-fought loss in Pittsburgh last week, a game that they will get the chance to avenge in Week 16.
They will need some help to win the division, potentially a lot of it with four games against playoff teams left on their schedule. But the upside of this team remains on the elite level (seven wins in eight weeks from Week 3-10).
Buffalo Bills’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 9-2
- Make the Playoffs: 99.8%
- Win the Division: 98.9%
- #1 Seed: 17.9%
- Win the Super Bowl: 7%
The Buffalo Bills made a statement in Week 11 with a win over Kansas City that essentially secured them a playoff spot and the AFC East, while also putting them back in the race for the No. 1 seed in the conference. The Bills are just one game behind the Chiefs in the loss column, also having a crucial head-to-head advantage over their biggest rivals this year.
Buffalo closes the regular season with three divisional games (both Patriots games and their home contest with the Jets), all of which they will be heavily favored in. If Kansas City leaves the door open, Josh Allen could walk through it and pick up the MVP trophy on the way.
Carolina Panthers’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 3-7
- Make the Playoffs: 1%
- Win the Division: 1%
- #1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Carolina Panthers are somehow just 2.5 games out of first place in the NFC South. They still have to face the Buccaneers twice and the Falcons once, which is why they still have a faint chance of making the playoffs as division winners. However, there are few scenarios where the Panthers make the playoffs as a Wild Card team if they do not win the division.
With games against the Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, and Cardinals mixed in among those division games, it seems extremely unlikely the Panthers (two straight wins after a 1-7 start) can get to nine or 10 wins they would realistically need to be a playoff team. There is a potential path to them making the playoffs as a seven-win team if the rest of the division falls apart down the stretch, but that is an unlikely scenario.
Chicago Bears’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-6
- Make the Playoffs: 0.5%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- #1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
Things are not going well for the Chicago Bears, who have lost four straight, the most recent of which was a heartbreaking loss at the buzzer against the Packers.
They also play in a highly competitive division that could yet supply three of the seven NFC playoff teams. Chicago’s most realistic path to the playoffs is through a Wild Card spot, but that would require at least a 5-3 finish.
Compounding it all is that the Bears have the toughest remaining schedule of any team. They still have five divisional games, as well as the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. If they were to make the playoffs from here, with that schedule, it would be a season we talk about for a long time to come.
Cincinnati Bengals’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-7
- Make the Playoffs: 10.3%
- Win the Division: 0.7%
- #1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The bizarre nature of the AFC has kept the Cincinnati Bengals alive for a playoff spot. They lost two straight games entering their Week 12 bye, games that easily could have flipped and made them a favorite to qualify for the postseason (35-34 loss to the Ravens and 34-27 loss to the Chargers).
The Bengals enter Week 12 as the No. 10 seed in the AFC and would need to be near flawless the rest of the way to earn an invite to the playoffs. That’s no easy task with both Steelers games remaining, but nothing is impossible with Joe Burrow at the peak of his powers.
Cleveland Browns’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 3-8
- Make the Playoffs: 0.3%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- #1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The state of the AFC Wild Card picture means that the Cleveland Browns were able to stay alive by beating the Steelers on Thursday night to kick off Week 12. However, with the second-hardest remaining schedule, they would have to put together an impressive run to make up the needed ground. With uncertainty at quarterback, tanking for the first overall pick might be the wiser decision.
Dallas Cowboys’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 3-7
- Make the Playoffs: 1.1%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
Any hopes the Dallas Cowboys had of making the playoffs vanished when Dak Prescott was lost for the season. The more intriguing storyline over the next six months for America’s Team is around which position they will target with a potential top-five overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Denver Broncos’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 6-5
- Make the Playoffs: 62.9%
- Win the Division: 2%
- #1 Seed: 0.7%
- Win the Super Bowl: 4.2%
The Denver Broncos enter Week 12 as the No. 7 seed in the AFC, trending back in the right direction on the heels of a 38-6 blowout of the Falcons.
If the Broncos can carry over that momentum and take care of business over the next two weeks (at Las Vegas, vs. Cleveland) prior to the bye, they position themselves to earn a surprise invite to the postseason.
If they struggle over the next two weeks, their odds to qualify will tank, as they close the season with the Chargers, Bengals, and Chiefs. At the very least, this Sean Payton/Bo Nix tandem has given this franchise hope moving forward.
Detroit Lions’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 9-1
- Make the Playoffs: 99.5%
- Win the Division: 64.6%
- #1 Seed: 53.9%
- Win the Super Bowl: 30.4%
The Lions rebounded from an underwhelming Week 10 win over the Texans with a display of excellence in their 46-point dispatching of the Jaguars. Our PR+ metrics grade the Lions as the most complete team, giving them the best Super Bowl chances in the league this year.
The Lions’ remaining schedule is the third-hardest in the league, and that difficulty is heavily backloaded. They have games with the Colts and Bears over the next two weeks before facing the Packers, Bills, Bears, 49ers, and Vikings in the final five weeks. Detroit would love to open up more of a gap between itself and the rest of the NFC before that tough five-week stretch to end the season.
Green Bay Packers’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 7-3
- Make the Playoffs: 85.7%
- Win the Division: 6.8%
- #1 Seed: 4.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 2.4%
With everything the Packers have been through this year — starting the season in Brazil and then multiple injury issues for Jordan Love — they have done well to be at 7-3 entering this week’s matchup with the 49ers. They are just two games behind the Lions in the NFC North, but with losses to both the Lions and Vikings on their résumé, they will need to be close to flawless the rest of the way to take the division crown.
Their destiny is in their own hands somewhat with Detroit and Minnesota matchups still on the docket, but it also means their remaining schedule ranks as the fourth-hardest in the league. There is little room for error in this profile, a dangerous line to walk with a risk-taking quarterback under center.
Houston Texans’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 7-4
- Make the Playoffs: 88.4%
- Win the Division: 79.7%
- #1 Seed: 0.4%
- Win the Super Bowl: 3.5%
The Houston Texans got their season back on track after losing three of their last four games with a prime-time blowout win over the Cowboys to put a bow on Week 11. The good news is that they get the Titans this week and the Jaguars next, a two-game stretch that could have this team at nine wins entering their Week 14 bye.
The Texans have the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Ravens on their schedule in Weeks 15-17, a stretch that will tell us a lot about the trajectory of this team. With a two-game lead in the division, Houston is likely to earn the AFC South crown, though their exact seeding will hinge on their ability to provide results against high-level competition.
There is a path where the Texans could fail to win the division and still make the playoffs. With the bottom of the AFC as soft as it is, the Texans could earn a Wild Card spot at 8-9, a record that they could essentially fall into.
Indianapolis Colts’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 5-6
- Make the Playoffs: 35.7%
- Win the Division: 19.3%
- #1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.3%
A three-game losing streak has put the Colts in a tough spot and left them little margin for error in terms of the division, making last week’s win over the Jets a big result. Their schedule ranks as the fifth-easiest remaining, but the Texans have the sixth-easiest and a virtual 2.5-game cushion thanks to winning both head-to-head meetings over the Colts.
Sure, there is a tough game with the Lions this week, but they finish with three games against the Titans, Giants, and Jaguars. Mixed in amongst that are games with the Jets, Patriots, and Broncos, who are within shouting distance of the Colts, giving them a chance, to a degree, to control their own destiny.
Despite a less-than-stellar season to this point, the Colts still have plenty to play for this year. If they can get Anthony Richardson to sustain the baby steps he took forward in Week 11, they have a chance to still win the division or make a run at the AFC Wild Card spots.
Once you get invited to the dance, anything can happen, something that is especially true when you have a wild card under center.
Jacksonville Jaguars’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-9
- Make the Playoffs: 0.6%
- Win the Division: 0.2%
- #1 Seed: 0%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
With Trevor Lawrence banged up, the 2-9 Jaguars are in the midst of a lost season after posting consecutive winning records
Jacksonville would realistically be better off shutting Lawrence down for the remainder of the season and focusing on getting the highest draft pick possible to build the team around him after paying him all that money last offseason.
This will be Jacksonville’s fifth double-digit loss season over their past seven years.
Kansas City Chiefs’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 9-1
- Make the Playoffs: >99.9%
- Win the Division: 90.8%
- #1 Seed: 72.7%
- Win the Super Bowl: 9.8%
The race for the top seed in the AFC could have all but been clinched by the Kansas City Chiefs last weekend against the Bills, but it’s now a true battle for the bye.
There should be no real danger of the Chiefs missing out on the division crown, even with the Chargers overachieving. With a schedule that ranks 11th-easiest the rest of the way, there are not too many more games that look like realistic opportunities for them to lose their grip on the No. 1 seed.
Las Vegas Raiders’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-8
- Make the Playoffs: 0.3%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- #1 Seed: 0%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Las Vegas Raiders haven’t won a game since September and bookended their bye week with a pair of 15+ point defeats. The Raiders’ best option right now is to secure the highest draft pick possible and look to identify their quarterback of the future to go alongside a clear franchise centerpiece in TE Brock Bowers.
Los Angeles Chargers’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 7-3
- Make the Playoffs: 86.2%
- Win the Division: 7.2%
- #1 Seed: 3.6%
- Win the Super Bowl: 3.1%
The Los Angeles Chargers have been one of the more surprising packages of the 2024 season so far. They have taken full advantage of a relatively weak schedule to currently sit as the No. 5 seed and with a three-game lead in the loss column over the team currently eighth in the standings.
The final stretch of the season should allow the Chargers to finish strong (Patriots/Raiders in Weeks 17-18), but maintaining their current standing is a tall ask with the Ravens, Falcons, and Chiefs up next.
The positive aspect for the Chargers is that they may only need two or three wins from their remaining seven games to secure a playoff spot. The games with the Bengals and Broncos will be particularly important as they will also have potential tiebreaker implications.
Los Angeles Rams’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 5-5
- Make the Playoffs: 18.4%
- Win the Division: 9.1%
- #1 Seed: 0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 1%
The Los Angeles Rams rebounded from a tough Monday night loss to the Dolphins with a win over the Patriots, a result that has them sitting at the top of the 5-5 trio in the NFC West (Seahawks and 49ers).
The Rams’ playoff chances look bleak because of how their schedule shapes up. They have a prime-time game against the Eagles this week, with games against the Bills, 49ers, Cardinals, and Seahawks all on the books over the final month of the regular season.
This team shouldn’t be ruled out now that their receivers are healthy, but mathematically speaking, you’re asking a lot from this team if you want them to qualify for the postseason.
Miami Dolphins’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-6
- Make the Playoffs: 24.6%
- Win the Division: 1%
- #1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.7%
The Miami Dolphins salvaged their playoff hopes by snapping their losing streak with a Monday night win over the Rams in Week 10. With a 34-19 win against the Raiders last weekend, it stands to reason that this team has turned a corner with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa.
However, this team still has a lot more to do if they are to make the playoffs. Helping their cause is that the AFC Wild Card picture is a bit of a mess, with the Broncos only 1.5 games ahead of them as the seventh seed entering Week 12.
The problem for the Dolphins is that, with the Chargers three games ahead of them, they may well be looking at one available playoff spot. Los Angeles has a tough schedule coming up, so that could quickly flip back in the Dolphins’ favor, though the deficit is still a lot to project them to make up.
Miami can’t lose games that they are supposed to win, and this week’s game certainly qualifies as such with the Patriots coming to town. They travel to Lambeau for a Thanksgiving Day contest, a game that could come with the sort of weather concerns that have caused issues for this franchise in the past.
Minnesota Vikings’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 8-2
- Make the Playoffs: 95.3%
- Win the Division: 28.5%
- #1 Seed: 21.8%
- Win the Super Bowl: 5.6%
It has been a far-from-convincing five weeks of football from the Vikings, and they may privately consider themselves a little lucky to be 8-2 entering Week 12.
The Vikings are in a good spot in the playoff picture overall, but their underwhelming performances have seen their odds to win the NFC North dip. They face the Lions in Week 18 in a game that could decide the division — Detroit won in Minnesota back in Week 7, a game in which the Vikings scored the first 10 before giving up the next 21.
New England Patriots’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 3-8
- Make the Playoffs: 0.1%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- #1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The New England Patriots have been competitive over the past month with Drake Maye finding his footing, posting a 2-2 record with both defeats coming by a single score. However, their performances overall would not suggest that they are a realistic playoff contender, especially when put into the context of the fifth-hardest remaining schedule.
It is fun for the Patriots to be competitive in games this early in their rebuild, but a sustained playoff chase could hurt their draft position. Any thoughts of a playoff run could be swept aside with losses to the Dolphins and/or Colts in Weeks 12 and 13.
New Orleans Saints’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-7
- Make the Playoffs: 10.7%
- Win the Division: 10%
- #1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Saints aren’t completely out of the question in the NFC South playoff race. They have split the season series with the Falcons and are just two games behind them after 11 weeks. There is a scenario where the NFC South could end in a three or four-way tie this year, which is a crazy thought given where the Panthers and Saints were just a couple of weeks back.
The Saints’ schedule ranks as the seventh-easiest in the league, and they have a game with the Buccaneers in Week 18 that could have playoff ramifications. Realistically, they can only afford one or two more losses and still have a chance to win the division, but they are in the playoff race more than you might think.
New York Giants’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-8
- Make the Playoffs: <0.1%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- #1 Seed: 0%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The New York Giants are nearing mathematical elimination from division contention, and Wild Card contention will not be far behind. With seven games to play, the Giants are six games behind the Eagles, so they could be eliminated from division contention as soon as this week. They are only a little bit closer to the Packers and Commanders in Wild Card spots, but it’s a long shot, especially with Tommy DeVito taking over for Daniel Jones.
New York Jets’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 3-8
- Make the Playoffs: 2.9%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The results over the past two weeks have hammered the New York Jets’ playoff chances. They are closer to the cellar of the AFC than the No. 7 seed, a disappointing result no matter what your expectations were for this franchise entering the season.
Will Aaron Rodgers return? What will this team do with their high pick? The Jets will remain in the news plenty, but the discussion will not be playoff-based.
Philadelphia Eagles’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 8-2
- Make the Playoffs: 98.1%
- Win the Division: 76.5%
- #1 Seed: 13.7%
- Win the Super Bowl: 5.9%
It was not always pretty for the Philadelphia Eagles last Thursday, but the overall result was an impressive victory that put them in firm control of the NFC East. They are now two games ahead of the Commanders in the loss column, so if they win all their other games, they could lose the rematch and still win the division.
The Eagles will have half an eye on the Commanders, but their outward focus could well be on the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They are now just one game behind the Lions and will be desperate to put pressure on them in the coming weeks in an effort to earn the bye. Their games in Week 13 (at Ravens), Week 15 (vs. Steelers), and Week 16 (at Commanders) are the three biggest tripping points on this schedule.
Pittsburgh Steelers’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 8-3
- Make the Playoffs: 90.8%
- Win the Division: 48.5%
- #1 Seed: 2.4%
- Win the Super Bowl: 2.4%
Following a physical battle with the Ravens in Week 11, the Pittsburgh Steelers suffered a setback to kick off Week 12 with a loss to the Browns in a snowy Dawg Pound. This certainly hurt their outlook, but with one win over Baltimore and another meeting in Week 16, this team still is very much in control of their destiny.
The Steelers are real dark horses in 2024. Their No. 1 seed percentage might not overwhelm, but they still have a game with the Chiefs and are only one loss behind them at this point. Russell Wilson is at a level of play that supports this elite defense. It could all fall apart in spectacular style, but this Steelers team is one to watch in the coming weeks.
San Francisco 49ers’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 5-5
- Make the Playoffs: 24.4%
- Win the Division: 9.3%
- #1 Seed: 0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.7%
It has been a really tough season for the 49ers, and they will be kicking themselves for letting three games slip through their hands, results that could end up costing them a chance to repeat as NFC champions.
The 49ers’ schedule has very little let-up, and that could be their undoing. This group is now an underdog to earn a playoff invite, with games against the Bills (Week 13) and Lions (Week 17) looming as their biggest hurdles.
We know this team’s potential, and that makes ruling them out dangerous, but they’ve certainly put themselves behind the eight ball as winter approaches.
Seattle Seahawks’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 5-5
- Make the Playoffs: 15.1%
- Win the Division: 8.2%
- #1 Seed: 0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.7%
Things will come to a head for the Seattle Seahawks in the next month as they play three games within their division. Their win in San Francisco last week greatly saved their projection, and with Arizona on deck in two of the next three weeks, their fate could be decided sooner than later.
The NFC North has been arguably the best division in football this season, and Seattle still has three games against that cohort of teams. This team isn’t dead, but the eighth-hardest remaining schedule makes them a tough team to project with confidence.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-6
- Make the Playoffs: 45.2%
- Win the Division: 42.7%
- #1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.7%
The bye week could not have come at a better time for the Buccaneers, who have injuries and losses piling at a similar rate in the last month. They need to get Mike Evans and Tristan Wirfs healthy if they are to have a realistic chance of competing for a playoff spot down the stretch. However, their schedule does rank as the easiest remaining, and it is not out of the question to see them finish the season with six or seven wins over the final seven weeks.
The 4-6 Buccaneers’ problem is that anything below 10-7 is going to be touch and go for a playoff spot. They lost both games against the Falcons, so they need to finish a game clear of them to win the division. Similarly, with three teams at six or more wins in the NFC Wild Card chast, there is the potential that three teams may get to 10 wins. One thing playing in their favor is wins over Washington and Philadelphia in the first month of the season.
Tennessee Titans’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-8
- Make the Playoffs: 1.1%
- Win the Division: 0.8%
- #1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Tennessee Titans’ chances of making any kind of noise in the AFC playoff race are unlikely after consecutive losses following their Week 9 win against the Patriots.
The Texans and Commanders are next up, making a 2-10 record very possible and thus resulting in a shift of focus to the 2025 NFL Draft.
Washington Commanders’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 7-4
- Make the Playoffs: 77.6%
- Win the Division: 23.5%
- #1 Seed: 1.7%
- Win the Super Bowl: 2.4%
It has been a tough two weeks for the Commanders, as they lost a close game in Pittsburgh before struggling to make a real impression on the Eagles’ defense in Week 11. The one positive for them is that their schedule ranks as the third-easiest remaining, and there is a realistic path to them winning five or even six games down the stretch.
- Week 12: vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Week 13: vs. Tennessee Titans
- Week 15: at New Orleans Saints
- Week 16: vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 17: vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Week 18: at Dallas Cowboys
Four wins should be enough for this team to make the playoffs, but they will likely need at least five, including a win over the Eagles if they are to have any chance of winning the division.