This week, six NFL teams are on bye — the Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, and New York Jets — so the Week 12 slate features 13 games.
Who are the best players to plug in your DFS lineup in Week 12? Using DraftKings’ prices, let’s build a daily fantasy football lineup that could win big this weekend!
Week 12 DFS Picks
- QB: Kyler Murray (at SEA), $6,200
- RB: Kareem Hunt (at CAR), $5,700
- RB: Brian Robinson Jr. (vs. DAL), $5,600
- WR: Tyreek Hill (vs. NE), $7,200
- WR: Terry McLaurin (vs. DAL), $6,800
- WR: Courtland Sutton (at LV), $5,800
- TE: Jonnu Smith (vs. NE), $4,100
- FLEX: Bucky Irving (at NYG), $5,300
- DST: Broncos (at LV), $3,200
DFS Strategy: Attack the Poor Run Defenses
Kareem Hunt and Brian Robinson Jr. both seem significantly underpriced given their production and terrific matchups.
Hunt is facing the Carolina Panthers, who are allowing the most fantasy points per game to running backs (25.6). Not only does Carolina allow the most rushing yards per game (133.9) to the position, but they also allow the most rushing touchdowns per game (1.4) against RBs.
The only thing that could hurt Hunt’s value is if Isiah Pacheco returns to the lineup, but it sounds like the Chiefs might hold him out one more game since their Week 13 contest is on Black Friday and will be a short turnaround.
Meanwhile, Robinson will square off against the Dallas Cowboys, who are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to RBs (23.4). Dallas is allowing the second-most rushing TDs per game (1.3) to the position and the seventh-most rushing yards per game to running backs (111.1).
Courtland Sutton Is a Bargain
Bo Nix’s push for Rookie of the Year consideration has been tied to his willingness to load up his WR1 with opportunities. Courtland Sutton has four straight games with at least six catches, eight targets, and 70 yards (in those games: 73.7% catch rate). Over his last four games, he has turned 38 targets (fourth-most in the NFL) into 370 yards (third-most).
He’s begun to mix deep bombs (second-most air yards in the league this season) with TD equity (three straight games with an end-zone target), a level of development with his first-year QB that you absolutely love to see.
The Las Vegas Raiders allow the sixth-highest red-zone passer rating, and there’s no place Nix would rather go in scoring situations than Sutton. As Nix has settled in, Sutton has been the main beneficiary. He has now scored double-digit PPR points in five straight games: 15.3, 21.1, 26.3, 19.0, and 14.8.
Predicting a Monster Game for Tyreek Hill
It certainly feels like Tyreek Hill is going to explode for a monster performance any week now. Over the past three weeks, he ranks eighth of 42 qualifiers in production over expectation and third in EPA per target.
The play on the field backs up the data — his touchdown last week came on a Tua Tagovailoa scramble drill where we saw some of the non-verbal communication between the two that has made them such a potent tandem in the past.
Tyreek Hill is so back 🙌 pic.twitter.com/bBDPKMU0ij
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) November 17, 2024
Now, Hill draws a New England defense that allowed him to account for one-third of Miami’s receptions in Week 5 (a Tyler Huntley start) and one that coughed up touchdowns to him in both meetings a season ago.
Hill is the sixth-most-expensive receiver on DraftKings this week, but there’s a real possibility that he will finish as the overall WR1 in Week 12.
Terry McLaurin Bounce-Back Game?
Last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, Terry McLaurin was targeted just twice, catching one pass for 10 yards. It’s very possible that performance will scare people away from McLaurin in Week 12, but he’s still a very solid play.
Washington’s WR1 had cleared 15 PPR points in five straight games before Thursday’s dud, and a big reason for that is his role.
For the season, McLaurin has 6.7 more PPR points than the Commanders’ next three receivers combined, a role that is rivaled by few. He had no trouble earning targets against these Cowboys last season (19 in two games in 2023), a defense that was much more productive than the current version.
While we expect the Commanders to dominate the Cowboys on the ground (hence the Robinson selection), McLaurin should also have a strong bounce-back game.