NFL Week 12 has arrived, and so has PFN’s fresh batch of expert picks. There are just 13 games on this week’s slate, and most of them are flea-ridden.
There are eight home underdogs, with some yawning lines. Could this be the week of the upset? Or will the rich get richer?
We break everything down — and set the table for an unpredictable finish to the season in the NFC West — with PFN’s NFL Week 12 picks and predictions.
NFL Week 12 Predictions
All playoff and No. 1 pick percentages are courtesy of PFN’s Playoff Predictor.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 36.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season as an NFL coach. The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone .500 or better for the last 20 seasons.
Pittsburgh visits a bad bad Cleveland Browns team Thursday, and with a win, the Steelers would tie the Dallas Cowboys’ NFL record 21-year streak of non-losing seasons (1965-1985).
Of course, Tomlin and the Steelers have loftier goals than simply finishing with a winning record. They last lost on Oct. 6. Pittsburgh’s five-game winning streak is the league’s fourth-longest, behind the Lions (eight), Eagles (six), and Bills (six).
This historic rivalry has been historically one-sided this century. Pittsburgh is 37-8-1 straight up against Cleveland since 2001. The incentives are all with the Steelers, too. Pittsburgh is 69% to win the division; Cleveland has a 23.3% chance at the No. 1 pick.
The Steelers have gotten similar quarterback play regardless of who’s under center. Russell Wilson’s QB+ with Pittsburgh (78.8) is just a tick higher than Justin Fields’ was before he was benched (77.9).
- David Bearman: Steelers
- Mike Gambardella: Steelers
- Adam Beasley: Steelers
- Dakota Randall: Steelers
- Dallas Robinson: Steelers
- Kyle Soppe: Steelers
- Dan Tomaro: Steelers
- Mike Wobschall: Steelers
- Anthony DiBona: Steelers
The Steelers win in 74.3% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Kansas City Chiefs (-11, 43) vs. Carolina Panthers
The betting public sees this as the most lopsided matchup of the week, and the trends support that assessment. In fact, this will probably be a blowout.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 13-6-1 against the spread following a loss in their last 20, 4-0 straight up against teams with losing records in 2024, and 37-9 in road games since 2019.
The Carolina Panthers this season have yet to cover the spread against a team with a winning record.
Certainly, there are real questions about a Chiefs team that has the league’s best record (9-1) but ranks ninth in average point differential (+4.9).
The streaking Buffalo Bills are probably the AFC’s best team, but the Chiefs are still 69.2% to get the No. 1 seed even after last week’s loss. The Panthers, meanwhile, have a 13.6% chance at the No. 1 pick.
- Bearman: Chiefs
- Gambardella: Chiefs
- Beasley: Chiefs
- Randall: Chiefs
- Robinson: Chiefs
- Soppe: Chiefs
- Tomaro: Chiefs
- Wobschall: Chiefs
- DiBona: Panthers
The Chiefs win in 88.1% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 39.5) vs. Chicago Bears
Matt Eberflus Watch is most definitely on, and while the Chicago Bears are philosophically against firing coaches midseason, they might make an exception for Eberflus if they’re worried he’s ruining the confidence of their No. 1 pick.
Chicago has lost its last four games (scoring 46 combined points). During that stretch, Caleb Williams has completed just 56.3% of his attempts and averaged 5.5 yards per attempt.
Williams ranks 37th in EPA+CPOE (.007) during that stretch, ahead of only Jake Haener, Cooper Rush, and Spencer Rattler. Things won’t get any easier against a Brian Flores-led defense that ranks first in DEF+ (93.5) and has allowed 43 combined points over the last three weeks.
- Bearman: Vikings
- Gambardella: Vikings
- Beasley: Vikings
- Randall: Bears
- Robinson: Vikings
- Soppe: Bears
- Tomaro: Vikings
- Wobschall: Vikings
- DiBona: Vikings
The Vikings win in 74.3% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans (-8.5, 42)
This is certainly the soft spot of the Houston Texans’ schedule. The Texans are in the middle of a three-game stretch against three of the worst teams in football.
DeMeco Ryan’s defense feasted against Rush and a terrible Cowboys offense in Week 11, holding an opponent under 20 points for the first time since Week 2. They shouldn’t break much of a sweat Sunday against a Tennessee Titans team that’s 31st in DEF+, with the 11th-worst rating (61.5) since 2019.
The Titans are 1-9 against the spread this year, including 0-5 against teams with winning records. The Texans, meanwhile, are basically locked into the AFC’s No. 4 seed (69.5%).
- Bearman: Texans
- Gambardella: Texans
- Beasley: Texans
- Randall: Texans
- Robinson: Texans
- Soppe: Texans
- Tomaro: Texans
- Wobschall: Texans
- DiBona: Texans
The Texans win in 67.3% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Detroit Lions (-7.5, 50.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts
PFN’s advanced metrics absolutely love the Detroit Lions in 2024.
Our Playoff Predictor has Detroit (9-1) as better than even money to earn the No. 1 seed and a whopping 31.8% to win the Super Bowl — making Dan Campbell’s group overwhelming favorites with a full seven weeks left of the regular season.
The Lions are a freight train. They’re the only club that ranks in the top 3 in both OFF+ (93.9) and DEF+ (89.7).
With Week 12 set to kick off, here are the updated playoff chances from the PFN Playoff Predictor, based on 10,000 simulations⬇️ pic.twitter.com/md10AxTDeG
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 21, 2024
So it’ll be a monumental challenge for the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, even if quarterback Anthony Richardson again plays like he did in Week 11, when he ran for two touchdowns and threw for another.
Richardson has a wild season stat line. He ranks last in completion percentage (48.5%) but first in yards per completion (15.6).
- Bearman: Lions
- Gambardella: Lions
- Beasley: Lions
- Randall: Lions
- Robinson: Lions
- Soppe: Lions
- Tomaro: Lions
- Wobschall: Lions
- DiBona: Lions
The Lions win in 71.5% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (-7, 46)
Mike McDaniel has gotten his team on track with back-to-back wins after losses in six of their previous seven. The Miami Dolphins are winning because Tua Tagovailoa is on a total heater, but since his return from injured reserve, he’s completed an absurd 77.7% of his attempts, averaged 7.4 yards per pass, has a 7-1 TD-INT ratio, and a 112.2 passer rating.
Tua, on third and fourth downs since his return, has connected on 78% of his attempts, averaged 8.5 yards per attempt, thrown two touchdowns and no picks (118.5 rating), and has 25 passing first downs on 45 dropbacks.
The New England Patriots certainly are a better team with Drake Maye on the field than Jacoby Brissett. But they still haven’t scored more than 25 points once this season. The Dolphins, 24.2% to make the playoffs, have done it in three of their last four.
- Bearman: Dolphins
- Gambardella: Dolphins
- Beasley: Dolphins
- Randall: Dolphins
- Robinson: Dolphins
- Soppe: Dolphins
- Tomaro: Dolphins
- Wobschall: Dolphins
- DiBona: Dolphins
The Dolphins win in 68.7% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5, 42) vs. New York Giants
Daniel Jones is out, and Tommy DeVito is back in for the New York Giants, who are probably headed for a hard reset this offseason.
Brian Daboll’s offense has scored 67 points and ranked 24th in EPA during the Giants’ five-game losing streak. Things have gotten so bad in New York that the No. 1 pick is a real possibility (11% entering Week 12).
Even after a four-game losing streak, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still thinking postseason — but it’s probably NFC South or bust. Tampa is 45.8% to make the playoffs, 43.2% to win the division.
Todd Bowles takes pride in his defense, but that side of the ball has been bad in 2024. The Buccaneers are 28th in DEF+, 29th in yards per play (5.9), and 30th in first downs (22.3).
There should be opportunities for DeVito in his return.
- Bearman: Buccaneers
- Gambardella: Buccaneers
- Beasley: Buccaneers
- Randall: Buccaneers
- Robinson: Buccaneers
- Soppe: Buccaneers
- Tomaro: Giants
- Wobschall: Buccaneers
- DiBona: Buccaneers
The Buccaneers win in 66% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders (-10.5, 45.5)
The stat of the week: The Dallas Cowboys are more likely to have the No. 1 pick (1.9%) than make the playoffs (1.6%).
So yes, these seem to be Mike McCarthy’s final games as Dallas’ head coach. Jerry Jones will almost certainly make a change in the coming weeks.
Our NFL Power Rankings heading into Week 12 📈📉 pic.twitter.com/ahg8GGEUsy
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 20, 2024
This should be a get-right game for the Washington Commanders, who have lost two straight, albeit against stiff competition: The Steelers (seventh in PR+) and Eagles (eighth) — both by one score.
While their back-to-back losses tanked their odds of winning the NFC East (25.4%), the Commanders are still 75.9% to make the playoffs.
- Bearman: Commanders
- Gambardella: Commanders
- Beasley: Commanders
- Randall: Commanders
- Robinson: Commanders
- Soppe: Commanders
- Tomaro: Commanders
- Wobschall: Commanders
- DiBona: Commanders
The Commanders win in 74.3% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Denver Broncos (-5.5, 41) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
If Bo Nix plays nearly as well the rest of the season as he did in Week 11, the Denver Broncos won’t just make the playoffs, they’ll make some noise when they get there.
The 2024 NFL Draft’s 12th overall pick threw a career-best four touchdowns and topped 300 yards for the first time in his career in a blowout win over the Atlanta Falcons.
Nix completed 28 of 33 passes and averaged a whopping 11.7 adjusted yards per attempt to lead the Broncos to their sixth win in nine games.
The Las Vegas Raiders will likely be drafting a quarterback in April, and they might have their pick of the litter. After dropping their sixth-straight game last Sunday, they now have a 14.3% chance at landing the No. 1 pick.
- Bearman: Broncos
- Gambardella: Broncos
- Beasley: Broncos
- Randall: Broncos
- Robinson: Broncos
- Soppe: Broncos
- Tomaro: Raiders
- Wobschall: Broncos
- DiBona: Broncos
The Broncos win in 71.5% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers (-2.5, 47.5)
The San Francisco 49ers might be in real trouble. After their fifth loss in nine games, the Niners are 74% to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
Kyle Shanahan’s closing stretch is just brutal. San Francisco plays the Packers, Bills, Rams, Dolphins, Lions, and Cardinals over the season’s final seven weeks.
However, the Niners do have the Green Bay Packers’ number lately, winning the last two meetings (both by a field goal) in one of the best rivalries in football.
Green Bay will have payback in mind after San Francisco bounced the Pack from the playoffs last January.
“It definitely sits with you through the offseason, and then you obviously move on,” quarterback Jordan Love said this week. “Just knowing that that’s the team that knocked us out, we’re definitely hungry for this game.”
- Bearman: Packers
- Gambardella: Packers
- Beasley: Packers
- Randall: 49ers
- Robinson: 49ers
- Soppe: 49ers
- Tomaro: Packers
- Wobschall: 49ers
- DiBona: Packers
The Packers win in 59% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks (-1, 47.5)
The NFC West is a jumbled ball of chaos. All four teams are separated by a single game, with the Arizona Cardinals (6-4) the only one of the quartet over .500.
Arizona is 70.8% to win the division because the Cardinals are 2-0 in the division, with wins over San Francisco and Los Angeles.
The Seattle Seahawks were in a tailspin entering Week 11, having lost five of six. They saved their season with a Week 11 win over the Niners, but with two division losses, have no margin for error going forward.
Working in Seattle’s favor? They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Cardinals.
- Bearman: Cardinals
- Gambardella: Cardinals
- Beasley: Cardinals
- Randall: Cardinals
- Robinson: Seahawks
- Soppe: Cardinals
- Tomaro: Cardinals
- Wobschall: Seahawks
- DiBona: Cardinals
The Cardinals win in 59% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 48.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
Nick Sirianni’s many critics are awfully silent these days after six straight wins, including a Week 11 win over the Commanders that increased the Philadelphia Eagles’ chances to win the NFC East to 75.6%.
But the real credit should go to Vic Fangio, who has turned around a defense that ranked 30th in DEF+ in 2023. The Eagles are fourth in that statistic this year (89.2) and have allowed just 83 points over their last six.
We continue with our Week 11 Game Balls from @AdamHBeasley on the offensive side of the ball.
🏈 Saquon Barkley
🏈 Jaxon Smith-Njigba
🏈 Ladd McConkey
🏈 Jonnu Smith
🏈 Taysom Hill pic.twitter.com/Xn6GCJnXYw— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 19, 2024
It won’t be easy Sunday against Matthew Stafford and a Los Angeles Rams offense that has put up 26+ in three of their last four.
The Rams are a streaky team. They’ve won four of their last five after losing four of their first five. They still have just a 19.7% chance of reaching the postseason.
- Bearman: Rams
- Gambardella: Eagles
- Beasley: Rams
- Randall: Eagles
- Robinson: Rams
- Soppe: Eagles
- Tomaro: Eagles
- Wobschall: Eagles
- DiBona: Eagles
The Eagles win in 57.6% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Baltimore Ravens (-3, 49.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Harbaugh Bowl is a fantastic way to finish the week. These are two of the best teams in football, with two of the most dynamic talents at quarterback (Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert).
Even after their Week 11 loss to the Steelers, the Baltimore Ravens (7-4) are fifth in PR+. After a thrilling (albeit sloppy) win over the Bengals, the Los Angeles Chargers are 12th.
It’ll be a fun contrast in styles. The Ravens are great on offense (first in OFF+) but surprisingly generous on defense (18th in DEF+). The Chargers, meanwhile, are the opposite (22nd in OFF+ and fifth in DEF+).
Both will likely be playing in January. The Ravens at 7-4 are still 95.6% to make the playoffs (but just 9.8% to win the Super Bowl). The 7-3 Chargers probably won’t catch the Chiefs in the AFC West but are still 85.1% to make the postseason.
- Bearman: Chargers
- Gambardella: Ravens
- Beasley: Ravens
- Randall: Chargers
- Robinson: Chargers
- Soppe: Ravens
- Tomaro: Ravens
- Wobschall: Chargers
- DiBona: Chargers
The Ravens win in 57.6% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Percentage of Games Correctly Picked Through Week 11
- Mike Wobschall: 70.9%
- Kyle Soppe: 67.2%
- Mike Gambardella: 65.4%
- David Bearman: 64.2%
- Anthony DiBona: 64.2%
- Adam Beasley: 64.2%
- Dallas Robinson: 63%
- Dan Tomaro: 61.8%
- Dakota Randall: 58.2%