Patriots’ Playoff Chances in Week 12: Is New England In or Out of NFL Playoff Race?

The New England Patriots are in the middle of a full-on rebuild.

It looks like the Patriots have their next franchise quarterback in Drake Maye. And multiple performances this season indicate New England has a capable head coach in Jerod Mayo. However, the bad has far outweighed the good this season, and the Patriots still have a long way to go.

But what are New England’s chances of making the playoffs or winning the Super Bowl, especially after their Week 12 loss to the Dolphins? Let’s look at all the scenarios in play.

Can the Patriots Make the Playoffs?

Heading into Week 13, the New England Patriots are 3-9 and now have a <0.1% chance to make the playoffs.

They have a 0.0% chance for the 1 seed, a 0.0% chance for the second seed, a 0.0% chance for the third seed, a 0.0% chance for the fourth seed, a <0.1% chance for the fifth seed, a <0.1% chance for the sixth seed, and a <0.1% chance for the seventh seed.

Can the Patriots Win the AFC East?

Here’s what the AFC East race looks like after all the action in Week 12:

• The Buffalo Bills have a 98.7% chance to win the AFC East.
• The Miami Dolphins have a 1.3% chance to win the AFC East.
• The New England Patriots have a <0.1% chance to win the AFC East.
• The New York Jets have a <0.1% chance to win the AFC East.

Current AFC East Standings

1. Buffalo Bills (9-2)
2. Miami Dolphins (5-6)
3. New York Jets (3-8)
4. New England Patriots (3-9)

AFC Playoff Race | Week 17

1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (12-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (10-5)
4. Houston Texans (9-6)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)
7. Denver Broncos (9-6)

In The Hunt

8. Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
9. Miami Dolphins (7-8)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)

Eliminated From Playoffs

11. New York Jets (4-11)
12. Cleveland Browns (3-12)
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-12)
15. Las Vegas Raiders (3-12)
16. New England Patriots (3-12)

Patriots’ Super Bowl Chances in Week 12

Can New England win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that the Patriots have a <0.1% chance to win it all.

Patriots’ Remaining Schedule

• Week 13: vs. Indianapolis Colts
• Week 14: BYE
• Week 15: at Arizona Cardinals
• Week 16: at Buffalo Bills
• Week 17: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
• Week 18: vs. Buffalo Bills

What PFN Predicted for the Patriots vs. Dolphins Matchup

Here’s where the Patriots and Dolphins rank in various Pro Football Network metrics.

Dolphins
Offense+ Metric: 15th (C)
Defense+ Metric: 16th (C)
Tua Tagovailoa QB+ Metric: 2nd (A)

Patriots
Offense+ Metric: 29th (D-)
Defense+ Metric: 25th (D+)
Drake Maye QB+ Metric: 21st (C)

This is a tough game to pick.

On one hand, Maye’s talent should give the Patriots a better chance of keeping pace with the Dolphins than we’ve seen in recent seasons. Miami’s had New England’s number since Tom Brady left in 2020, but the Patriots had Mac Jones under center for most of those matchups. Maye is a game-changer.

However, Maye can’t play defense. And the reality is that better Patriots defenses have struggled to get Tua Tagovailoa off rhythm. Mike McDaniel has done a great job of scheming around New England’s pressure packages and giving Tagovailoa easy reads.

Could that change this week? It’s hard to see it, as Miami’s offense has kicked into another gear since Tagovailoa’s return, and the Patriots’ defense, which generated zero sacks in Week 11, ranks 25th with a 30.3% pressure rate, per TruMedia.

If the Patriots don’t make Tagovailoa uncomfortable, they likely will be in for a long day.

That said, Tyreek Hill hasn’t looked like Tyreek Hill this season, and the Patriots have a true top cornerback in Christian Gonzalez. If New England’s run defense can hold up, its secondary should be able to prevent the Dolphins from popping off.

But the Patriots’ offense also must do its part against a Miami defense that’s held opponents under 20 points in four of its last six games. This will be a tough test for Maye, who committed nine turnovers in his first six starts. He must take care of the ball in this game.

Still, at the end of the day, we expect the Dolphins to do what they’ve done against the Patriots in recent matchups: use speed and excellent play designs to expose New England’s slow linebackers and overrated safeties.

PFN Prediction: Patriots 17, Dolphins 23