We are now truly into the crunch part of the season, with plenty of data behind every decision we make when picking games. Of course, not every result goes exactly to the form guide, and identifying those games is often the key to a successful week.
Using our PFN metrics and insights, we have taken an early look at all the games in Week 12 and given our NFL picks and predictions for all 13 contests.
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NFL Week 12 Betting Lines, Odds, Picks, Predictions
Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5) at Cleveland Browns
- Moneyline: Steelers -205; Browns +170
- Total: 39.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers got a huge win on Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens, but now, they have to go into Cleveland and back that up on a short week.
On a normal week, you would back the Steelers 100% since they have the edge in all our metrics. They rank 14th overall in PR+, compared to 28th for the Browns. Pittsburgh also ranks higher in all three phases of the game.
The only thing that gives pause here is that the Steelers are coming off an emotional win in a really tough game and now will have to back that up in what is likely to be another physical encounter. Pittsburgh didn’t play brilliantly in Week 11 and relied on two missed field goals and other Ravens’ mistakes to come out on top.
All the numbers suggest that the Steelers laying the points is the play here. Two good defenses with two below-average offenses would also suggest that the under should be in play.
Prediction: Steelers 23, Browns 13
Pick: Steelers -4.5 and Under 39.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) at New York Giants
- Moneyline: Buccaneers -198; Giants +164
- Total: 42.5
Having both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Giants coming off their bye week makes this a little less complicated in terms of judging this game. The Buccaneers should be back close to full health and are the far superior team when they are.
With key players back in the fold, Tampa Bay is a potential top-10 team in our PR+ standings, while New York languishes down in 27th.
The Buccaneers’ defense always makes you somewhat nervous to bet on because they have a collapse in them at any given moment. However, the Giants are not the team likely to exploit that with either Drew Lock or Tommy DeVito under center.
Sources: The #Giants are benching QB Daniel Jones, officially moving on from their starter.
Out of the bye week, with the team 2-8, Jones now heads to the bench in what the team has said would be a football decision. pic.twitter.com/NaiVruk6sq
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 18, 2024
The Buccaneers laying the points should be the play, while the complication of two good units and two bad units facing off makes the total a hard one to call with where it is currently set.
Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Giants 17
Pick: Buccaneers -4
Kansas City Chiefs (-11) at Carolina Panthers
- Moneyline: Chiefs -675; Panthers +490
- Total: 41.5
The Kansas City Chiefs have the perfect bounce-back spot against the Carolina Panthers in Week 11. While the Panthers have won two straight, they’ve beaten the New Orleans Saints and the Giants — hardly stiff competition.
The Chiefs are the better team in every aspect. The biggest question to ask yourself is whether you are comfortable laying 11 points.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Panthers 13
Pick: Chiefs -11
Detroit Lions (-8) at Indianapolis Colts
- Moneyline: Lions -410; Colts +320
- Total: 50.5
The Detroit Lions got back on the right track in Week 11 by dismantling the woeful Jacksonville Jaguars. The Indianapolis Colts should provide a sterner test, but much depends on which version of Anthony Richardson shows up in Week 12.
The Lions should be the better team in all three phases of the game, and this should not be a close matchup. However, Richardson is the type of enigmatic quarterback who could keep it interesting.
Detroit has won five of its last seven games by 10 points or more and could easily make that six of eight against a Colts team that ranks outside the top 20 both offensively and defensively. This has the feel of a high-scoring back-and-forth or a blowout in favor of the Lions. I lean towards the latter, and all the metrics suggest that should be the case.
Prediction: Lions 35, Colts 17
Pick: Lions -8
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-7.5)
- Moneyline: Patriots +310; Dolphins -395
- Total: 45.5
We saw the low-quality version of this game earlier in the season when Tyler Huntley and Jacoby Brissett did battle in Foxborough. Now we get the full version with Tua Tagovailoa versus Drake Maye, a battle we will hope to be watching for years to come.
However, at this stage in their careers and with the current rosters around them, Tua and the Dolphins have the edge. Miami is the better team offensively and defensively, and while the Patriots have the edge on special teams, that likely won’t be enough to tilt the balance in their favor.
New England has been a tough team to judge this year, but if the Dolphins play well, they should handle this one. However, the Patriots are an opportunistic team that will pounce if Miami opens the door for them at all in Week 12.
Our metrics suggest that laying the points with the Dolphins would be the smartest approach, especially with this being played in Miami. Maye will almost undoubtedly make it interesting, but he’s yet to truly elevate the roster around him to being consistent game-winners.
The over could also be interesting here with both defenses having issues at times this year.
Prediction: Dolphins 30, Patriots 20
Pick: Dolphins -7.5 and Over 45.5
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Chicago Bears
- Moneyline: Vikings -185; Bears +154
- Total: 40
The Chicago Bears gave the Green Bay Packers everything they could handle last week. Now, they have another home game to try and upset a division rival.
The Bears are built around a strong defense and will look for their offense to get into that 20-27-point region. The Minnesota Vikings are also built around their defense, meaning this could be a tight affair.
According to our metrics, the Vikings are the superior team both offensively and defensively. The biggest issue is ultimately whether Sam Darnold can avoid turning the ball over as much as he has been recently.
Finders keepers @GrindSimmons94
📺: Watch #MINvsTEN on @NFLonCBS stream on NFL+ pic.twitter.com/ugsVT9lzz8
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) November 17, 2024
Minnesota’s defense should be able to shut down Chicago’s offense, as other teams have done in recent weeks. The Bears could only muster 19 points against a below-average Packers defense, which doesn’t offer much excitement against the Vikings.
Minnesota laying the points is the play here, while the under is also tempting.
Prediction: Vikings 21, Bears 13
Pick: Vikings -3.5
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-7.5)
- Moneyline: Titans +295; Texans -375
- Total: 41.5
It’s difficult to trust a Houston Texans team that has only won one of its six games by more than a single score, with five of those wins being by a combined 18 points. However, they are the superior team on both sides of the ball, which should be enough for Houston to at least beat a Tennessee Titans team that has had plenty of struggles this season, especially offensively.
This has the feeling of being a low-scoring game, with both defenses ranking as average units or better. Houston has only topped 24 points in 20% of its games this year, both against defenses that rank outside the top 20. Meanwhile, Tennessee has only topped 20 points on one occasion and just over 17 points twice.
Laying seven points with this Texans team is too much, but taking the under is tempting. When we lay out the projected scorelines for this game, 24-17 is towards the upper end and would still see the under hit. This game has a 20-17 or 17-13/14 feeling about it.
Prediction: Texans 17, Titans 13
Pick: Under 41.5
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders (-10)
- Moneyline: Cowboys +390; Commanders -520
- Total: 45
The Washington Commanders should have the perfect bounce-back spot in Week 12, taking on some combination of Cooper Rush and Trey Lance at home. The Commanders have lost back-to-back games against playoff contenders, but one thing we can rely on them this year is to put away the lower-quality teams.
That statement perfectly surmises the Dallas Cowboys, who rank 25th offensively and 24th defensively ahead of their Monday Night Football game.
Washington is the superior team on both offense and defense and has blown struggling teams away. I still don’t love laying 10 points, but I would lean more toward the Commanders than the Cowboys here.
Prediction: Commanders 27, Cowboys 13
Pick: Pass
Denver Broncos (-5) at Las Vegas Raiders
- Moneyline: Broncos -230; Raiders +190
- Total: 40.5
The last six weeks have perfectly encapsulated the 2024 Denver Broncos. They are 3-3, beating up on three bad teams, pushing two other playoff-level teams close, and having a slight meltdown against another playoff-level team.
Denver is an above-average team with the roster depth to beat the lesser teams in the league, but it will have to win tight contests against other teams in the playoff conversation.
Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Raiders are a below-average team that can be frisky when facing bad defenses but are, for the most part, a team the Broncos should beat easily. There’s no reason why Denver shouldn’t be able to win comfortably, similar to how they beat the Atlanta Falcons this past weekend.
Prediction: Broncos 27, Raiders 13
Pick: Broncos -5
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-1.5)
- Moneyline: 49ers +102; Packers -122
- Total: 47.5
The matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field could very well prove to be the matchup of the week. These two teams sit close together in our PR+ standings, with the 49ers having the edge on offense and defense but the Packers having the better special teams and having played the tougher schedule.
The other complicating factor for both teams is the injury question marks. With key players dealing with injuries, we don’t know the true potential of both groups, especially on offense.
San Francisco and Green Bay both played in games that came down to the wire in Week 11, and our metrics suggest that could be the case once again this week. Our metrics give the 49ers a slight edge, but the Packers’ home-field advantage balances that out. This being a must-win game for San Francisco could be the deciding factor.
Prediction: 49ers 24, Packers 23
Pick: Pass
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-1)
- Moneyline: Cardinals -105; Seahawks -115
- Total: 48
The NFC West has become an incredible division, and this is yet another matchup where either side could come out on top. The Seattle Seahawks have become almost impossible to judge week to week, and the Arizona Cardinals had been the same until recently.
The Cardinals are the better team offensively, but the Seahawks are better on defense and have a slight edge on special teams. Our metrics say the Cardinals should win, but their road performances have been mixed, especially when traveling north.
Arizona is 0-2 on the road when traveling significantly north. However, Seattle has lost four in a row at home, so this game is anyone’s guess at this point.
Prediction: Cardinals 24, Seahawks 23
Pick: Pass
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams
- Moneyline: Eagles -155; Rams +130
- Total: 47.5
The Los Angeles Rams got an impressive win on the road in New England, avoiding a potential trip hazard in their fight to remain in the NFC West. They now head home to face a Philadelphia Eagles team that has extra rest and is the superior team in terms of our metrics.
They both rank similarly offensively and on special teams, but the Eagles have the edge defensively. However, the Rams have played the much harder schedule of the two teams.
Philadelphia is rightly the favorite in this game, with Los Angeles proving tough to judge on a week-to-week basis. The Eagles haven’t always been convincing on offense, but their defense should be able to shut down the Rams’ offense. The under is very much an intriguing play here in a game that could total around 40 points.
Prediction: Eagles 24, Rams 17
Pick: Eagles -2.5 and Under 47.5
Baltimore Ravens (-2) at Los Angeles Chargers
- Moneyline: Ravens -130; Chargers +110
- Total: 47.5
The Harbaugh Bowl will headline Monday Night Football in a game where, to a large extent, you may want to throw out the form guide. As much as anything, this will be a battle of wits between the two brothers. We may see them make decisions that seem out of the norm as they look to take advantage of mindset elements that they will have a much deeper understanding of than the rest of us.
The metrics tell us that this will be a battle of strengths between the Ravens’ offense and the Chargers’ defense while the two weaker units face off on the other side of things. Baltimore should have the edge, and it makes sense that they are favored, especially after we saw L.A.’s defense collapse against the Cincinnati Bengals this week.
Instinctively, this is a no-play because of the intangibles that come with two brothers who know each other well facing off on either sideline. Both teams are coming off a game where their respective strengths were shaken, which will have some level of ramification here.
The Ravens should have too much for the Chargers, but this Baltimore team has been tough to read at times this season.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Chargers 21
Pick: Pass