The NFL head coach firing cycle is already underway. The New York Jets parted ways with Robert Saleh after Week 5, while the New Orleans Saints canned Dennis Allen following Week 9.
Saleh and Allen will not be the only NFL head coaches to lose their jobs this year. There are typically a number of firings on Black Monday, the infamous day after the regular season when decision-makers around the league are let go. Which coaches should be worried about their job security?
2024 NFL Head Coach Hot Seat Rankings
6) Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns (3-8)
On paper, Kevin Stefanski is hardly a candidate to be fired in 2025. He guided the Cleveland Browns to two playoff appearances in his first four seasons, winning the NFL’s Coach of the Year award in both campaigns. Also, Stefanski and Browns GM Andrew Berry just signed extensions with the club in June.
And yet, Stefanski’s accomplishments have been overshadowed by Cleveland’s disastrous 2022 trade for QB Deshaun Watson, the NFL’s worst signal-caller before tearing his Achilles last month. Meanwhile, the rest of the Browns’ roster seemingly devolved overnight, leaving a team that won just two of its first 10 games.
Watson’s injury seemingly breathed some life into the team when the Browns upset the Baltimore Ravens in Week 8. However, back-to-back losses by a combined margin of 62-24 reignited the idea that the Browns may need new leadership. In fact, the hot-seat talk got so loud that Stefanski even commented on it prior to Week 12.
“I think probably because I grew up listening to [Philadelphia radio], I’m smart enough to not worry about outside noise,” Stefanski told reporters. “I get that’s part of this gig. That’s life in the big city. My sole focus is getting this team ready to get a win on Thursday night. That’s it.”
Stefanski said he was solely focused on defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night, and that’s exactly what his Browns did. Cleveland got a huge 24-19 win in the snow, which will certainly cool down Stefanski’s seat a bit.
Also, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that Stefanski is expected to remain the Browns coach in 2025, so it seems he’s done enough to protect his job for now.
5) Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders (2-8)
One-and-done head coaches are no longer a rarity in the NFL. Since 2011, 12 NFL HCs have been fired either during their first season or shortly thereafter. One first-year head coach has been let go in-season in each of the past three campaigns:
- Urban Meyer, Jacksonville Jaguars (2021)
- Nathaniel Hackett, Denver Broncos (2022)
- Frank Reich, Carolina Panthers (2023)
Among 2024’s rookie head coaches, the Las Vegas Raiders’ Antonio Pierce is the best candidate for an in-season or Black Monday firing. The Raiders’ 2-8 record is disappointing, but that’s not the only reason Pierce might be on the hot seat.
Mark Davis has hired five head coaches in the 10+ years he's been at the helm: Dennis Allen (fired), Jack Del Rio (college advisor), Jon Gruden (nicey videos), Josh McDaniels (lol), and Antonio Pierce (??).
I can't wait to see who he hires next/after Deion Sanders.
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) November 4, 2024
Pierce might’ve pushed WR Davante Adams out of Las Vegas after he — inadvertently or otherwise — liked an Instagram post that suggested the veteran wideout had played his last snap for the Raiders. In September, he was forced to apologize after seemingly questioning the effort of some Vegas players, noting they’d made “business decisions” in games.
Meanwhile, Pierce’s in-game decision-making ranks among the worst in the NFL. Only the Ravens and Patriots have lost more win probability than the Raiders by failing to go for fourth-down conversions.
After Week 11, the Raiders are on a six-game losing streak, their longest within a single season since they started out 0-10 in 2014. Without another late-season surge, Pierce may not be around for his second full season in Vegas.
4) Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears (4-6)
The Chicago Bears were expected to flirt with playoff contention in Caleb Williams’ rookie campaign, but four straight losses have left them at 4-6 after Week 11. So, what’s the problem for head coach Matt Eberflus?
Well, the vibes in Chicago are off-the-charts bad. Williams struggled mightily after improving his EPA per dropback each of his first six games, even facing calls to be benched. The Bears’ players seemingly staged a mini-revolt against OC Shane Waldron, who was fired and replaced by passing game coordinator Thomas Brown after Week 10.
The offense showed more signs of life in Brown’s first game as offensive coordinator in Week 11 against the rival Green Bay Packers. Chicago scored 19 points and had 391 yards, both its most in a game since the Week 7 bye. A would-be winning drive from Williams was thwarted when Cairo Santos’ 46-yard field goal attempt was blocked.
PACKERS BLOCK THE FIELD GOAL FOR THE WIN.#GBvsCHI pic.twitter.com/gq8zbz965C
— NFL (@NFL) November 17, 2024
No one would have batted an eye had Chicago started fresh and parted ways with Eberflus after the 2024 campaign. Hanging onto Eberflus, hiring and then firing Waldron, and forcing Williams to slog through this type of rookie experience feels like a massive waste of time at best and the downfall of an all-time QB prospect at worst.
We’re not expecting Eberflus to be fired during the season. The Bears have never canned a head coach during a season, while Chicago doesn’t have an obvious in-house interim candidate.
Still, things are probably going to get worse for the Bears. Chicago will face the NFL’s most difficult schedule to close the 2024 season and still has five games remaining against its challenging NFC North compatriots.
3) Brian Daboll, New York Giants (2-8)
If you believe New York Giants owner John Mara, head coach Brian Daboll was not on the hot seat as of late October.
“Obviously, we’re all very disappointed with where we are right now,” Mara said after Week 7. “But I’m gonna say one thing: we are not making any changes this season. And I do not anticipate making any changes in the offseason, either.”
Big Blue was 2-5 then. At the time, The Athletic’s Dianna Russini reported that executives around the league weren’t “buying” Mara’s endorsement of Daboll, noting that Mara has always been a fan of coaching free agent Bill Belichick.
The Giants are 2-8 now and are coming off a loss to the Panthers, who many observers considered the NFL’s worst team. Daniel Jones threw two picks against Carolina and was formally benched for Tommy DeVito coming out of New York’s Week 11 bye.
Coach Daboll: We are making a quarterback switch from Daniel Jones to Tommy DeVito. After evaluating and watching a lot of tape, that's the reason we are going with Tommy. Drew Lock will be the backup. This was a necessary move for us and I'm looking forward to working with Tommy… pic.twitter.com/OTPmSCIq0P
— New York Giants (@Giants) November 18, 2024
Jones will be a goner in 2025, and Daboll has played his last card in severing ties with the 2019 first-round pick. Will Mara let Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen pick the Giants’ next quarterback? Could Schoen stay around while Daboll is fired?
2) Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys (3-7)
Like Eberflus, Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy will probably survive for the rest of the year. While Dallas could theoretically promote special teams coach John Fassel into its interim role (he held the same title for the Los Angeles Rams after they fired Jeff Fisher in 2016), owner Jerry Jones has asserted that McCarthy won’t be let go during the season.
However, McCarthy appears increasingly unlikely to return in 2025, opening up one of the NFL‘s most prestigious head-coaching jobs.
McCarthy entered the 2024 campaign as a lame-duck coach after Jones refused to extend his contract. With quarterback Dak Prescott (hamstring) out for the season, Dallas is 3-7 and going nowhere fast.
Monday’s latest humiliation included the roof at AT&T Stadium disintegrating and the Cowboys’ first 0-5 start at home since the infamous 1989 team that went 1-15. Dallas has been outscored 187-69 at home this season, a minus-118 point differential. That’s the third-worst margin all-time in a team’s first five home games of a season.
Worst point differential in the first 5 home games of a season:
- 2013 Jacksonville Jaguars: -123
- 1966 Atlanta Falcons: -119
- 2024 Dallas Cowboys: -118
They’ve also trailed by 20+ in six straight home games, dating back to last season’s Wild Card fiasco versus the Green Bay Packers.
Trailing, 34-10, with 3:16 to play, the Cowboys have now trailed by at least 20 points in six straight home games, dating back to last year's playoffs, building on their NFL record.
— Todd Archer (@toddarcher) November 19, 2024
Pro Football Network recently highlighted the 10 best candidates to replace McCarthy in 2025, from Belichick to former Cowboys CB and current Colorado head coach Deion Sanders.
1) Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9)
The final nail in Doug Pederson’s coffin may have arrived in Week 11.
Veteran NFL insider Josina Anderson reported on Friday that, while Jacksonville Jaguars owner Shad Khan prefers to make a decision on Pederson after the 2024 season, the club could make changes with a blowout loss to the Detroit Lions on Sunday.
And what a blowout it was. The team promptly responded with the largest loss in franchise history, a 52-6 humiliation against the Super Bowl-contending Lions. The 46-point defeat eclipsed a 44-point defeat suffered against the Lions back in 1995 … when the Jaguars were an expansion team.
Pederson clearly knows his Jacksonville tenure is nearing its end, and his frustration has begun to blow over. Last week, he responded to a seemingly innocuous question about a Jones interception by telling reporters they wouldn’t “figure out” the play.
Following Sunday’s historic destruction, Pederson sounded resigned to his fate entering the Week 12 bye.
Doug Pederson on whether today’s 52-6 loss to Detroit may have been his final game as #Jaguars coach: “I can’t control that. Listen, I’ve been around this league a long time. If it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen obviously. But at the same time, I have a job to do.”
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) November 17, 2024
Former Chargers head coach Mike McCoy is on Jacksonville’s staff as the quarterbacks coach. He’d make sense as an interim option if Khan fires Pederson before the regular season concludes.
The Jaguars’ head-coaching job should be a relatively compelling position during the 2025 offseason, even if Trevor Lawrence will be viewed as something of a reclamation project. Can Khan lure coveted Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Jacksonville next year?